# 2016 Kentucky Derby **URL:** \ **Category:** The Game Room\ **Created:** [April 30, 2016, 5:55pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2016-kentucky-derby/753524 "2016-04-30T17:55:21Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 13\ **Page:** 1
**Author:** ![ChickenLegs](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/c/ecc23a/32.png) [@ChickenLegs](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ChickenLegs)\ **Post date:** [April 30, 2016, 5:55pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2016-kentucky-derby/753524/1 "2016-04-30T17:55:21Z")
I’m pretty sure that Nyquist won’t win it. I don’t like his Beyers, and his breeding, E2 and late pace figs indicate he won’t get the distance. I wouldn’t be shocked if doesn’t even hit the tri. I like Gun Runner, Destin, and Exaggerator. Could be bombs away. I’m guessing the trifecta pays better than 10 grand. ---
**Author:** ![Baker](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/bb73d2/32.png) [@Baker](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Baker)\ **Post date:** [May 1, 2016, 3:46pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2016-kentucky-derby/753524/2 "2016-05-01T15:46:47Z")
I haven’t kept up in the last year, so your analysis is as good as any. I will try to watch the race next Saturday, a legacy of my horsy childhood. ---
**Author:** ![It\_s\_Not\_Rocket\_Surgery](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/it_s_not_rocket_surgery/32/312_2.png) [@It\_s\_Not\_Rocket\_Surgery](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/It_s_Not_Rocket_Surgery)\ **Post date:** [May 3, 2016, 8:45pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2016-kentucky-derby/753524/3 "2016-05-03T20:45:25Z")
For a horse who everyone presumes will be the favorite, I can scarcely find anyone who actually thinks he’ll win. Maybe Steve Haskin over at [Bloodhorse.com](http://Bloodhorse.com) is the only one. This has the feel of a year where the expected favorite doesn’t go off favored. As for myself, I have liked both Exaggerator and Whitmore since last year. I may key both of them. Destin could win by 5 or lose by 25, and I will be equally unsurprised either way. Gun Runner should run his race and be in contention coming out of the turn - his speed figures so far haven’t been fast enough, but his running style is good for the race. ---
**Author:** ![ChickenLegs](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/c/ecc23a/32.png) [@ChickenLegs](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ChickenLegs)\ **Post date:** [May 4, 2016, 11:17am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2016-kentucky-derby/753524/4 "2016-05-04T11:17:07Z")
> [@It\_s\_Not\_Rocket\_Surgery](#): > > As for myself, I have liked both Exaggerator and Whitmore since last year. I may key both of them. Destin could win by 5 or lose by 25, and I will be equally unsurprised either way. Gun Runner should run his race and be in contention coming out of the turn - his speed figures so far haven’t been fast enough, but his running style is good for the race. Agree. I like Whitmore, too, and will have him in my tri and super. Plus, he seems to be getting some stable buzz. I think Suddenbreakingnews is the best of the closers for 1-1/4 miles, though. ---
**Author:** ![asterion](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/4da419/32.png) [@asterion](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/asterion)\ **Post date:** [May 7, 2016, 12:18pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2016-kentucky-derby/753524/5 "2016-05-07T12:18:37Z")
Andy Serling from NYRA likes Destin, My Man Sam, Nyquist (in exotics, not as a good bet at the likely odds), and Whitmore. So I went ahead and placed a win bet on all but Nyquist. Not sure what I’m going to do in the exotics yet. Anyone want to share their thoughts now that we’re a few hours out? ---
**Author:** ![ChickenLegs](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/c/ecc23a/32.png) [@ChickenLegs](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ChickenLegs)\ **Post date:** [May 7, 2016, 5:15pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2016-kentucky-derby/753524/6 "2016-05-07T17:15:00Z")
The winner will come from this group: 2 Suddenbreakingnews 3 Creator 5 Gun Runner 9 Destin I say Gun Runner. The second tier, for place or show: 11 Exaggerator 13 Nyquist 15 Outwork The third tier, if you need a few more for the bottom of the superfecta: 10 Majesto 17 Mor Spirit 18 Whitmore A $1 exacta box with my top 4 plus Nyquist with cost you $20, and will probably pay $40 - $400 if it hits. You could box 6 horses for $30. ---
**Author:** ![It\_s\_Not\_Rocket\_Surgery](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/it_s_not_rocket_surgery/32/312_2.png) [@It\_s\_Not\_Rocket\_Surgery](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/It_s_Not_Rocket_Surgery)\ **Post date:** [May 7, 2016, 8:51pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2016-kentucky-derby/753524/7 "2016-05-07T20:51:39Z")
My prime bet was a box of: Suddenbreakingnews Destin Whitmore Exaggerator ---
**Author:** ![Baker](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/bb73d2/32.png) [@Baker](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Baker)\ **Post date:** [May 7, 2016, 10:54pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2016-kentucky-derby/753524/8 "2016-05-07T22:54:15Z")
It’s Nyquist! ---
**Author:** ![It\_s\_Not\_Rocket\_Surgery](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/it_s_not_rocket_surgery/32/312_2.png) [@It\_s\_Not\_Rocket\_Surgery](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/It_s_Not_Rocket_Surgery)\ **Post date:** [May 7, 2016, 11:11pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2016-kentucky-derby/753524/9 "2016-05-07T23:11:25Z")
This race used to be chaos personified. Between 1980 and 1999, not a single favorite won. Nyquist is the 4th straight winning favorite. Not only that, unless the odds changed at the last moment the first 4 finishers were the first 4 favorites - in order. ---
**Author:** ![Rick\_Kitchen](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/rick_kitchen/32/522_2.png) [@Rick\_Kitchen](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Rick_Kitchen)\ **Post date:** [May 7, 2016, 11:26pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2016-kentucky-derby/753524/10 "2016-05-07T23:26:36Z")
Nice race, Nyquist did a good come from behind, and Exaggerator almost had him, but man, Danzig Candy just faded away. Nyquist’s people need to be afraid of Exaggerator in a longer race. ---
**Author:** ![Merneith](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/57b2e6/32.png) [@Merneith](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Merneith)\ **Post date:** [May 7, 2016, 11:36pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2016-kentucky-derby/753524/11 "2016-05-07T23:36:59Z")
Nyquist wasn’t really come from behind. He was just off the pace the whole race. Exaggerator came from way way behind. I agree that the Belmont might suit him. Nyquist was my pick, though, it was a tepid one. He just seemed to so relaxed. He didn’t strike me as a horse that was eager to run. Turns out, he had good reason to relax! He’s a frood who knows where his towel is. That was a fast pace, too - 2:01. It’s faster than Pharaoh’s 2:03. He seemed relaxed after the race, too. What a nice horse. ---
**Author:** ![asterion](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/4da419/32.png) [@asterion](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/asterion)\ **Post date:** [May 8, 2016, 1:07pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2016-kentucky-derby/753524/12 "2016-05-08T13:07:17Z")
Got lucky and hit the trifecta. With a $2 box, that meant a net win of about $160. Total for the day was about $130. ---
**Author:** ![Merneith](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/57b2e6/32.png) [@Merneith](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Merneith)\ **Post date:** [May 8, 2016, 10:16pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2016-kentucky-derby/753524/13 "2016-05-08T22:16:42Z")
Congrats!