# 2016 USA election predictions thread. **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Created:** [September 19, 2015, 12:31pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2016-usa-election-predictions-thread/731757 "2015-09-19T12:31:02Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 4\ **Page:** 5
**Author:** ![asahi](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/asahi/32/8693_2.png) [@asahi](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/asahi)\ **Post date:** [April 10, 2016, 3:50am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2016-usa-election-predictions-thread/731757/81 "2016-04-10T03:50:12Z")
> [@asahi](#): > > I predicted Hillary v Jeb, and I was obviously way wrong. > > At this point, I’d say Hillary v Cruz (and maybe Trump as a 3rd party candidate). Trump’s support among Republicans is about to undergo a massive collapse. The pundits have the map favoring Donald, but I think Donald’s negatives are going to catch up with him. And it looks like the party is uniting behind Cruz and not Kasich. And Trump gets crushed in Colorado. Why? Because Trump’s team is so incompetent they don’t even understand how to win a single freakin delegate in Colorado, despite their once ‘yuuuge’ lead in the polls. Notice how Trump isn’t so cocky anymore? That’s because Ted Cruz has been punching him in the face (metaphorically) and he hasn’t been able to punch back. I predicted Trump’s massive collapse, and I stand by it. He might win New York and perhaps a state or two more in the Northeast (thanks to Kasich), but Cruz is going to have the momentum going into the convention. And the convention will not in any way feel obligated to honor Trump’s earlier victories. Nobody will care if Trump loses. Nobody except people that neither party wants. It’s Ted Cruz against Hillary Clinton (or perhaps Bernie Sanders?) ---
**Author:** ![Johnny\_Ace](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/j/6bbea6/32.png) [@Johnny\_Ace](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Johnny_Ace)\ **Post date:** [April 10, 2016, 5:23am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2016-usa-election-predictions-thread/731757/82 "2016-04-10T05:23:07Z")
Manafort might just make the difference. Trump and Kasich managed to screw Cruz over in MI and deny him any of his delegates. I’m now 50/50 on whether it’ll be Cruz or His Hairness who wins the nomination. ---
**Author:** ![asahi](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/asahi/32/8693_2.png) [@asahi](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/asahi)\ **Post date:** [April 10, 2016, 11:44am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2016-usa-election-predictions-thread/731757/83 "2016-04-10T11:44:09Z")
I think the real question is what does the Donald do once he gets unceremoniously kicked out of the convention. Does he try to get his revenge on republicans by running a zombie 3rd party campaign that siphons votes from Cruz? If so, then either Hillary or Sanders would probably walk away with the election. In that scenario, there’s a chance that Trump could injure Hillary with attacks on her middle class credentials, though I think Hillary would still beat them both with ease. ---
**Author:** ![ElvisL1ves](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/5daacb/32.png) [@ElvisL1ves](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ElvisL1ves)\ **Post date:** [April 10, 2016, 12:09pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2016-usa-election-predictions-thread/731757/84 "2016-04-10T12:09:03Z")
> [@Hari\_Seldon](#): > > Fascinating thread. Only one of last September’s predictions seems right (ElvisL1ves). Just call me Cassandra. 😉 > [@](#): > > It is hard to imagine many women voting for Trump at this point, so it could be 1964 all over again. But remember what happened in 1968. IOW the beginning of the Southern Strategy. Are the 2020 Republicans going to find another trove of fearful voters disaffected by the Democrats they can swing to their side? It won’t be women. Or blacks. Or Hispanics. Or the educated. Who’s left? [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2016-usa-election-predictions-thread/731757.md?page=4)