# 2017 Virginia Gov. race: Gillespie (R) vs. Northam (D) **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Created:** [June 14, 2017, 2:52am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2017-virginia-gov-race-gillespie-r-vs-northam-d/788920 "2017-06-14T02:52:46Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 10
**Author:** ![RTFirefly](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/c77e96/32.png) [@RTFirefly](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RTFirefly)\ **Post date:** [November 8, 2017, 4:56pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2017-virginia-gov-race-gillespie-r-vs-northam-d/788920/181 "2017-11-08T16:56:17Z")
> [@Ruken](#): > > Am I counting right? A 50/50 split in the House of Delegates? Not yet. There are still four seats whose winner is undetermined, awaiting the count of absentee and provisional ballots, not to mention possible recounts. But Dems have a 49-47 edge in the HoD races that have been settled, so they need one of the remaining 4 to share control of the HoD, and 2 of 4 to own it. Late last night, here were the counts on those remaining four races: #HD27 (Chesterfield): Del. Robinson (R) up by 129 votes. #HD28 (F’burg): Thomas (R) up by 86. #HD40 (Fairfax): Tanner (D) up by 68. #HD94 (Newport News): Del. Yancey (R) up by 12. The Dem’s ahead in one, and behind by a mere 12 votes in another, so 51 is very possible, given what we know and don’t know at this point. ---
**Author:** ![Ruken](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/f475e1/32.png) [@Ruken](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Ruken)\ **Post date:** [November 8, 2017, 5:16pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2017-virginia-gov-race-gillespie-r-vs-northam-d/788920/182 "2017-11-08T17:16:46Z")
> [@ElvisL1ves](#): > > Wonder what the count is outside the DC suburbs? For much of the state, a liberal is someone who thinks blacks should have civil rights too. Charlottesville, Richmond. But yeah not most of the state. ---
**Author:** ![Aspenglow](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/aspenglow/32/76_2.png) [@Aspenglow](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Aspenglow)\ **Post date:** [November 8, 2017, 5:20pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2017-virginia-gov-race-gillespie-r-vs-northam-d/788920/183 "2017-11-08T17:20:09Z")
> [@John\_Mace](#): > > Why would a leader only be needed during the presidential election? And once the presidential nominee is chosen, that person becomes the de facto leader, so that’s done. What need of only one leader now? Obviously, it’s not required. The results across the country are all the evidence needed to see this. This wasn’t even a mid-term, and turnout was spectacular. What a wonderful thing to see! > [@John\_Mace](#): > > Yes, exactly. The lack of leader is a symptom of that dispute, so basically you’re saying “who needs a leader since we are unable to choose one”. That doesn’t make a lot of sense. You can choose to characterize it that way, but my view is different. People will choose a leader as circumstances evolve. Leaders self-select, if you hadn’t noticed. Remember Obama in 2008. As already noted, no one leader is needed for the mid-terms. The wind is at their backs, voters now see tangible evidence that their vote does matter and they can effect change simply by becoming involved. Why spoil it by foisting a “leader” on them so early in the process? > [@John\_Mace](#): > > I don’t consider cowering in fear to be a winning strategy. YMMV. LOL, when you have to characterize a situation in a particular way in order for your argument to sound credible to your own ear, you should probably examine the merits of your argument. I don’t see anyone “cowering in fear.” Please feel free to name a Dem who is doing that. Seems to me, such behavior is reserved for Republicans: [Spicer Loiters in the Bushes](https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/post-politics/wp/2017/05/10/as-trump-fired-comey-his-staff-scrambled-to-explain-why/?utm_term=.842cd9f273d8) - WaPo Dems and progressives of every stripe are speaking out, calling bullshit on all the egregious behavior being done by Trump and his administration. You don’t have to look far to know who might emerge as a presidential leader of the Democratic party. There is an abundance of choice. One of the things Hillary was accused of in 2016 was insisting it was “her turn” to run. No one on the Democratic side wants a repeat of that, obviously. Waiting for the natural leader to emerge is a strategic acknowledgement of the unsettled state of the Democratic electorate, nothing more. A smart one. ---
**Author:** ![Aspenglow](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/aspenglow/32/76_2.png) [@Aspenglow](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Aspenglow)\ **Post date:** [November 8, 2017, 5:33pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2017-virginia-gov-race-gillespie-r-vs-northam-d/788920/184 "2017-11-08T17:33:36Z")
> [@Dinsdale](#): > > I’m trying to figure out how often the political parties have clear “leaders” other than certain incumbent presidents or - less frequently - majority leaders in the House or Senate. Rather, I think it most often that there is a short list of the most vocal and influential party leaders. A “leadership committee” as it were. > > And I think there is a good set of the 10 or so most prominent Dem leaders presently. I don’t keep track of such things, but in no order and not close to exhaustive I can list: Warren, Booker, Pelosi, Bernie, Franken, Durbin, Harris, Schumer… A number of others seem to arise in Presidential campaign years. I see the optimal situation expanding upon that list, and “building the bench.” > > Isn’t it preferable to have a political organization with several coordinated and complimentary inputs, rather than a single leader who can spur division and provide a target? I completely agree. To your list I would add Biden, Warner, Schiff, Wyden, Swalwell, Newsome and Garcetti off the top of my head, and like you, I would not consider it exhaustive. I do wish Franken would consider running! My dream ticket today is Biden/Harris. Yeah, he’s old, but if Trump or Pence are the candidate, then that’s no biggie. Biden brings experience, name recognition, the steadiness of Obama and the promise of the Obama legacy; Harris brings youth, freshness, experience, a sharp mind and hopefully an appeal to progressives. But I personally believe neither Trump or Pence will be names anywhere near a ballot box in 2020, so then it remains to be seen what “leader” will emerge on the right before selecting the best leader for the left. Should be fascinating to see who it could possibly be on the right. ---
**Author:** ![John\_Mace](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/john_mace/32/185_2.png) [@John\_Mace](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/John_Mace)\ **Post date:** [November 8, 2017, 5:58pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2017-virginia-gov-race-gillespie-r-vs-northam-d/788920/185 "2017-11-08T17:58:49Z")
> [@Dinsdale](#): > > I’m trying to figure out how often the political parties have clear “leaders” other than certain incumbent presidents or - less frequently - majority leaders in the House or Senate. Rather, I think it most often that there is a short list of the most vocal and influential party leaders. A “leadership committee” as it were. > > And I think there is a good set of the 10 or so most prominent Dem leaders presently. I don’t keep track of such things, but in no order and not close to exhaustive I can list: Warren, Booker, Pelosi, Bernie, Franken, Durbin, Harris, Schumer… A number of others seem to arise in Presidential campaign years. I see the optimal situation expanding upon that list, and “building the bench.” > > Isn’t it preferable to have a political organization with several coordinated and complimentary inputs, rather than a single leader who can spur division and provide a target? Perhaps you’re right. > [@Aspenglow](#): > > I don’t see anyone “cowering in fear.” (I’m only going to respond to that part) Nor do I, which is why I didn’t say anyone was doing that… It was you who seemed to think that was a good strategy. That is all: > [@](#): > > And why should anyone poke their head up, just to give Russians and Republicans more time to demonize them ahead of the presidential election? ---
**Author:** ![Aspenglow](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/aspenglow/32/76_2.png) [@Aspenglow](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Aspenglow)\ **Post date:** [November 8, 2017, 6:02pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2017-virginia-gov-race-gillespie-r-vs-northam-d/788920/186 "2017-11-08T18:02:04Z")
> [@John\_Mace](#): > > Perhaps you’re right. > > (I’m only going to respond to that part) Nor do I, which is why I didn’t say anyone was doing that… It was you who seemed to think that was a good strategy. That is all: I meant in the sense of the “tall poppy,” as my late Australian husband used to refer to it. Tall poppies tend to be cut first. Not an indication of fear; merely an understanding that if you make yourself a target, you’ll likely get shot at. ---
**Author:** ![RickG](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/rickg/32/5174_2.png) [@RickG](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RickG)\ **Post date:** [November 8, 2017, 6:02pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2017-virginia-gov-race-gillespie-r-vs-northam-d/788920/187 "2017-11-08T18:02:19Z")
> [@Ruken](#): > > Charlottesville, Richmond. But yeah not most of the state. I find our emphasis on distribution of votes by land mass to be meaningless. Who cares if Northam _only_ won by a lot in a comparatively small geographic area? The land doesn’t get a vote (except, of course, in the US Senate and the Electoral College, more’s the pity). Fifty-four percent of the voters **is** “most of the state.” Boxed for those who haven’t seen _ **Thor: Ragnarok** _: Asgard isn’t a place, it’s the people. ---
**Author:** ![JKellyMap](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/jkellymap/32/15880_2.png) [@JKellyMap](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/JKellyMap)\ **Post date:** [November 8, 2017, 6:04pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2017-virginia-gov-race-gillespie-r-vs-northam-d/788920/188 "2017-11-08T18:04:29Z")
> [@llcoolbj77](#): > > Northam won by 20 points in Loudoun County. Loudoun County. Holy shitballs. I know our demographics are changing, but not that much. Hopefully it’s more than just “demographics” – an over-reliance on this was, many ague, a factor in the 2016 Democratic defeats – but also regretful Trump voters, and some who regret not having voted in 2016 at all. ---
**Author:** ![wonky](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/wonky/32/393_2.png) [@wonky](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/wonky)\ **Post date:** [November 8, 2017, 6:38pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2017-virginia-gov-race-gillespie-r-vs-northam-d/788920/189 "2017-11-08T18:38:40Z")
> [@jsgoddess](#): > > Health care was big in Virginia, and obviously in Maine. That and guns were the two biggest issues cited by VA voters (breaking evenly on guns and strongly for Northam on health care). For more detail: > [@](#): > > Early Exit Polls: Health Care Most Important Issue for Virginia Voters > > Health care is a priority for Virginia voters, according to early results from the NBC News exit poll, with 37 percent citing it as the most important issue to their vote. > > Gun policy follows with 17 percent, 14 percent said immigration and another 14 percent said taxes. Only 9 percent of Virginia voters said abortion is the issue that mattered most in deciding how they voted for governor. And from Politico: “Nearly 80 percent of those health care voters went for eventual winner Ralph Northam, a Democrat who’s pledged to expand Medicaid.” ---
**Author:** ![asahi](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/asahi/32/8693_2.png) [@asahi](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/asahi)\ **Post date:** [November 8, 2017, 7:25pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2017-virginia-gov-race-gillespie-r-vs-northam-d/788920/190 "2017-11-08T19:25:39Z")
> [@Steve\_MB](#): > > To be fair, they did keep that promise. It’s just that middle-class Americans generally don’t appreciate being mooned. Nice! I cracked up a bit.🆒 ---
**Author:** ![RTFirefly](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/c77e96/32.png) [@RTFirefly](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RTFirefly)\ **Post date:** [November 8, 2017, 7:53pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2017-virginia-gov-race-gillespie-r-vs-northam-d/788920/191 "2017-11-08T19:53:22Z")
Dave Wasserman of the Cook Political Report, [September 29, 2017](https://cookpolitical.com/analysis/house/virginia-house/why-virginias-delegate-races-could-be-most-telling-2017-elections): > [@](#): > > if Democrats pick up five [VA House of Delegates] seats or less, Republicans would breathe a sigh of relief. If Democrats pick up five to ten seats, it would suggest Democrats are in contention for the House next year. If Democrats pick up 10 to 15 seats, it would be a strong sign they’re on track to pick up the House majority next year. If Democrats pick up more than 15 seats, we’re looking at a potential tidal wave in 2018. And the Dems picked up at least 15, with four still in play. 🙂 ---
**Author:** ![dalej42](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/67e7ee/32.png) [@dalej42](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/dalej42)\ **Post date:** [November 8, 2017, 8:14pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2017-virginia-gov-race-gillespie-r-vs-northam-d/788920/192 "2017-11-08T20:14:22Z")
Even better for the Democrats: This overwhelmingly good night shoves Donna Brazile right out of the news. I can also be hopeful that this also signals turning the page on the endless refighting of the 2016 primary race. I also agree, that except for an incumbent popular president, no party really has a national party leader. Even the beloved Ronald Reagan was tainted by Iran Contra and the endless scandals of his cabinet when he left office. George H.W. Bush called for a, ‘kinder, gentler nation.’ Plus, Reagan already had alzheimer’s symptoms. ---
**Author:** ![Dinsdale](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/97f17d/32.png) [@Dinsdale](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Dinsdale)\ **Post date:** [November 8, 2017, 8:43pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2017-virginia-gov-race-gillespie-r-vs-northam-d/788920/193 "2017-11-08T20:43:52Z")
OK, folk - let me be the first to ask - how will the Dems screw THIS pooch? Just waiting to hear the completely tone deaf crowing, doing little other than creating splits among Dems and energizing Repubs! 😉 I have good friends in the trenches, and they assure me that positive developments are occurring/growing, but I’ve cheered this team of not-so-lovable losers for too long to get too excited too early! Someone enact some gun control before the Dems shoot themselves in the foot yet again! ---
**Author:** ![Snarky\_Kong](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/a183cd/32.png) [@Snarky\_Kong](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Snarky_Kong)\ **Post date:** [November 8, 2017, 8:55pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2017-virginia-gov-race-gillespie-r-vs-northam-d/788920/194 "2017-11-08T20:55:06Z")
> [@asahi](#): > > Don’t know if it’s been mentioned but it seems that the polling was once again inaccurate at the state level. Most polls I saw did give Northam as slight edge entering the final days but they also suggested there was momentum in favor of Gillespie. As it turned out, Northam won by, what, double digits? And the House of Delegates was a disaster for the GOP, which I don’t recall being predicted. I think it’s a good thing that polls are off - it might motivate more people to show up at the polls. But if you’re running a campaign and trying to strategize those final days, it seems to be getting more difficult to do so. Nate Silver mentioned that the polls for the 2016 Presidential election were more accurate than the polls last night, but because the result was the predicted one yesterday, nobody cares while last year made everyone think polls are shit. ---
**Author:** ![Rick\_Kitchen](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/rick_kitchen/32/522_2.png) [@Rick\_Kitchen](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Rick_Kitchen)\ **Post date:** [November 8, 2017, 9:48pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2017-virginia-gov-race-gillespie-r-vs-northam-d/788920/195 "2017-11-08T21:48:18Z")
> [@RTFirefly](#): > > Not yet. There are still four seats whose winner is undetermined, awaiting the count of absentee and provisional ballots, not to mention possible recounts. But Dems have a 49-47 edge in the HoD races that have been settled, so they need one of the remaining 4 to share control of the HoD, and 2 of 4 to own it. > > Late last night, here were the counts on those remaining four races: > > #HD27 (Chesterfield): Del. Robinson (R) up by 129 votes. > #HD28 (F’burg): Thomas (R) up by 86. > #HD40 (Fairfax): Tanner (D) up by 68. > #HD94 (Newport News): Del. Yancey (R) up by 12. > > The Dem’s ahead in one, and behind by a mere 12 votes in another, so 51 is very possible, given what we know and don’t know at this point. Plus the Democratic Lieutenant Governor would break tie votes. A 30 year old Marine veteran who identifies as Socialist, and was abandoned by the Democratic Party because he wouldn’t tailor his message to their approval, beat the VA House Majority Whip. > **[How a Socialist Beat One of Virginia’s Most Powerful Republicans](https://newrepublic.com/article/145727/socialist-beat-one-virginias-powerful-republicans)** > > Is Lee Carter’s shocking victory a sign of things to come across America? ---
**Author:** ![Rick\_Kitchen](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/rick_kitchen/32/522_2.png) [@Rick\_Kitchen](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Rick_Kitchen)\ **Post date:** [November 8, 2017, 9:49pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2017-virginia-gov-race-gillespie-r-vs-northam-d/788920/196 "2017-11-08T21:49:22Z")
> [@Ruken](#): > > Charlottesville, Richmond. But yeah not most of the state. Lynchburg went Democrat. ---
**Author:** ![Thing\_Fish](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/ecb155/32.png) [@Thing\_Fish](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Thing_Fish)\ **Post date:** [November 8, 2017, 10:40pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2017-virginia-gov-race-gillespie-r-vs-northam-d/788920/197 "2017-11-08T22:40:40Z")
> [@Rick\_Kitchen](#): > > Plus the Democratic Lieutenant Governor would break tie votes. > > A 30 year old Marine veteran who identifies as Socialist, and was abandoned by the Democratic Party because he wouldn’t tailor his message to their approval, beat the VA House Majority Whip. > > [How a Socialist Beat One of Virginia’s Most Powerful Republicans | The New Republic](https://newrepublic.com/article/145727/socialist-beat-one-virginias-powerful-republicans) I’ll see that and raise you [“Republican who mocked Women’s March defeated by a woman who was inspired to run by his remarks.”](http://thehill.com/blogs/blog-briefing-room/news/359340-gop-nj-official-who-mocked-womens-march-defeated-by-female-dem) Today has been the most fun I’ve had on social media in a long time.🙂 ---
**Author:** ![Thing\_Fish](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/ecb155/32.png) [@Thing\_Fish](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Thing_Fish)\ **Post date:** [November 8, 2017, 10:51pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2017-virginia-gov-race-gillespie-r-vs-northam-d/788920/198 "2017-11-08T22:51:35Z")
> [@Snarky\_Kong](#): > > Nate Silver mentioned that the polls for the 2016 Presidential election were more accurate than the polls last night, but because the result was the predicted one yesterday, nobody cares while last year made everyone think polls are shit. To be precise: > [@Nate Silver](#): > > Other than Quinnipiac, Virginia polls will have been pretty bad tonight; it now looks the polling average will have been low on Northam’s margin by 6 or 7 points. By comparison, the national polls were 1 or 2 points too low on Trump in 2016, and swing state polls were 2 or 3 points too low on him. There’s a danger that polls will overcompensate for last year’s mistakes by lowballing Democrats instead. Somewhere else, he also commented that > [@](#): > > Contrary to the conventional wisdom, the polls weren’t that far off last year — they were about as accurate as they’d been in past elections. But they were filtered thru a lens of groupthink that was convinced Trump couldn’t possibly win — and so pundits routinely misinterpreted polls and ignored data showing a competitive race. > > It’s healthy to take away the lesson from 2016 that polls are not always right… But that polls aren’t always right doesn’t mean that one’s gut instinct is a better way to forecast elections. On the contrary, the conventional wisdom has usually been much wronger than the polls, so much so that it’s given rise to what I’ve called the First Rule of Polling Errors, which is that polls almost always miss in the opposite direction of what pundits expect. ---
**Author:** ![Aspenglow](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/aspenglow/32/76_2.png) [@Aspenglow](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Aspenglow)\ **Post date:** [November 8, 2017, 11:16pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2017-virginia-gov-race-gillespie-r-vs-northam-d/788920/199 "2017-11-08T23:16:12Z")
I’d hate to be a pollster right now. One thing they for sure can’t account for is how many citizens are moved one way or the other to actually get out and vote – some perhaps for the first time ever in a lifetime of non-voting. There’s just no way to know. On the bright side, it makes election interference a pretty dicey proposition as well. If there is a significant disparity between what is reflected by exit poll information v. actual outcomes, those results will be scrutinized much more closely. Election interference works best when the tilt is only slight. Kind of like Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania… ---
**Author:** ![DSeid](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dseid/32/20194_2.png) [@DSeid](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DSeid)\ **Post date:** [November 8, 2017, 11:51pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2017-virginia-gov-race-gillespie-r-vs-northam-d/788920/200 "2017-11-08T23:51:54Z")
Does this result have any impact on the civil war within the Democratic side, taking some of the strength away from those who claim that only an extreme Left agenda and more solidly Progressive candidate can drive the turnout that the Democratic side needs? Northam is clearly not that wing’s standard bearer yet his better than predicted result was driven by better than expected turnout. Will being united in opposition be enough to get moderate Democrats out for those of the progressive wing and progressive Democrats out for those of the more moderate wing even though they disagree with the specific candidate many individual issues other than being in opposition to Trumpism and the GOP? And will the lesson for the GOP side be to, as Trump suggests it should be, more fully embrace him and his policies (whatever they actually are) if they want to get the sort of turnout from their side that they need? [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2017-virginia-gov-race-gillespie-r-vs-northam-d/788920.md?page=9) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2017-virginia-gov-race-gillespie-r-vs-northam-d/788920.md?page=11)