# 2017 Virginia Gov. race: Gillespie (R) vs. Northam (D) **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Created:** [June 14, 2017, 2:52am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2017-virginia-gov-race-gillespie-r-vs-northam-d/788920 "2017-06-14T02:52:46Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 3
**Author:** ![dalej42](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/67e7ee/32.png) [@dalej42](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/dalej42)\ **Post date:** [November 4, 2017, 6:07pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2017-virginia-gov-race-gillespie-r-vs-northam-d/788920/41 "2017-11-04T18:07:03Z")
> [@John\_Mace](#): > > I have not been following this AT ALL, but just listening to the PBS News Hour tonight, Mark Shields make the comment that if the Dems lose, it will tear the party apart, pitting the Sanders wing ferociously agains the “other wing”, whatever that is. I’m assuming Northam (the Democrat) is from the non-Sanders wing, right? Is this race _that pivotal_? It looks like it’s neck and neck at this point, and the election is a few days away. > > I’m asking folks who are following this more closely than I am (which is not at all). And I’m usually skeptical of apocalyptic rhetoric. > > And I’m surprised this thread has been quiet for over a week. Tom Perriello was the preferred candidate in the Democratic primary of the Bernie Bros, but he was crushed by Northam 55% to 44%. if Northam loses, I can’t see it reigniting the Sanders vs Clinton fight. It will be more of a message to stay the hell away from cultural issues, since Gillespie is running on a bring back the Confederacy platform. Should Gillespie win, bathroom battles and Black Lives Matter will be as irrelevant to the Democratic platform as the free coinage of silver. ---
**Author:** ![asahi](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/asahi/32/8693_2.png) [@asahi](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/asahi)\ **Post date:** [November 4, 2017, 6:27pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2017-virginia-gov-race-gillespie-r-vs-northam-d/788920/42 "2017-11-04T18:27:50Z")
> [@dalej42](#): > > Tom Perriello was the preferred candidate in the Democratic primary of the Bernie Bros, but he was crushed by Northam 55% to 44%. if Northam loses, I can’t see it reigniting the Sanders vs Clinton fight. It will be more of a message to stay the hell away from cultural issues, since Gillespie is running on a bring back the Confederacy platform. Should Gillespie win, bathroom battles and Black Lives Matter will be as irrelevant to the Democratic platform as the free coinage of silver. I think Republican-leaning voters are doing in Virginia what they did nationally last year. They’re probably not that enthused by Gillespie but they seem to be ultimately coming back home to the party. It’s the progressive-leaning voters who can’t seem to decide whether they want to support an establishment Democrat. On that note, I sometimes get the feeling (have had for a while) that Sanders voters want Democrats to lose just so that they can say “We told you so” and then justify cleaning out the entire party. They might have a point in saying that it’s high time the Democrats become more of a working class party again, but I’m just wondering if the Sanders wing of the party can actually build something. Tearing something down is easier than reconstructing it. I just wonder if they can build a movement without turning off people in the center who desperately want an alternative to the Republican fascists but aren’t necessarily going to buy into $15 or $20 / per hour minimum wages and breaking up Wall Street banks. ---
**Author:** ![asahi](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/asahi/32/8693_2.png) [@asahi](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/asahi)\ **Post date:** [November 4, 2017, 6:30pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2017-virginia-gov-race-gillespie-r-vs-northam-d/788920/43 "2017-11-04T18:30:15Z")
> [@Snarky\_Kong](#): > > I think it’s the first election (?) since Trump won that isn’t in a hugely partisan district. So, it’s seen as a big referendum on Trump. If Northam loses many will say “I told you so, this is because we didn’t put forth a more progressive candidate.” Could increase disaffection among Dems. Could also encourage more Republicans to support Trump openly if they were hesitant before. Moreover, the Democrats have held the advantage in statewide races the last few cycles, with Tim Kaine and Mark Warner as Senators, Obama and Clinton carrying 3 state presidential election cycles, and McCauliffe as governor. If Gillespie actually finds a way to reverse the Democrats at a time when Trump is at historic lows in terms of presidential approval, it could very well signal the beginning of the end of the Democratic party as we know it. And I’m not convinced that all progressives necessarily seem to care, either. I get the feeling Sanders’ contingent believes that this would be a good thing. They would be wrong, of course, but it wouldn’t be the first time. ---
**Author:** ![The\_Other\_Waldo\_Pepper](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/the_other_waldo_pepper/32/12370_2.png) [@The\_Other\_Waldo\_Pepper](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/The_Other_Waldo_Pepper)\ **Post date:** [November 4, 2017, 6:34pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2017-virginia-gov-race-gillespie-r-vs-northam-d/788920/44 "2017-11-04T18:34:16Z")
I’m not sure I’m following the reasoning in this thread: what’s more likely to lead to Democrats running to the right on guns and immigration and who-knows-what else: a colossal loss in Virginia this week, or a colossal win? ---
**Author:** ![Budget\_Player\_Cadet](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/budget_player_cadet/32/205_2.png) [@Budget\_Player\_Cadet](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Budget_Player_Cadet)\ **Post date:** [November 5, 2017, 10:42am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2017-virginia-gov-race-gillespie-r-vs-northam-d/788920/45 "2017-11-05T10:42:47Z")
Nobody brought [this](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KUC0e1Bm1r0) up yet? The Latino Victory Fund put out an ad against Gillespie which featured a bunch of minority kids running away from a black pickup truck with a confederate flag and a Gillespie bumper sticker. Followed by the reveal that it was a dream sequence nightmare from those kids, cutting to TV coverage of the Charlottesville march, and asking if this was the future we saw for Virginia. This ad… did _not_ go over well. Like, it was bad enough _before_ the New York attack (at which point it was pulled, two days after it started running), and at this point it’s basically a gigantic own goal. Not a great look. Conflating “generic conservative who likes the battle flag in virginia” with “neo-nazi” is _not going to work_. At least not outside of the base that would never vote for Gillespie anyways. ---
**Author:** ![John\_Mace](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/john_mace/32/185_2.png) [@John\_Mace](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/John_Mace)\ **Post date:** [November 5, 2017, 12:01pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2017-virginia-gov-race-gillespie-r-vs-northam-d/788920/46 "2017-11-05T12:01:33Z")
> [@Budget\_Player\_Cadet](#): > > Nobody brought [this](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KUC0e1Bm1r0) up yet? Not in this thread , but [a few days ago in a different thread.](http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=20578294&postcount=95) ---
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [November 5, 2017, 12:43pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2017-virginia-gov-race-gillespie-r-vs-northam-d/788920/47 "2017-11-05T12:43:20Z")
The lesson of this race, win or lose, is that Democrats really need to figure out their immigration position. ---
**Author:** ![Lord\_Feldon](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lord_feldon/32/341_2.png) [@Lord\_Feldon](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Lord_Feldon)\ **Post date:** [November 5, 2017, 1:08pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2017-virginia-gov-race-gillespie-r-vs-northam-d/788920/48 "2017-11-05T13:08:49Z")
“Ralph Northam wants police officers on the streets keeping you safe. Ed Gillespie wants them behind desks filling out paperwork for Donald Trump.” But no, he decides to validate Democrats’ self-stereotype about their guys rolling over, crying, and flip-flopping whenever a Republican says something mean. ---
**Author:** ![The\_Other\_Waldo\_Pepper](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/the_other_waldo_pepper/32/12370_2.png) [@The\_Other\_Waldo\_Pepper](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/The_Other_Waldo_Pepper)\ **Post date:** [November 6, 2017, 12:14am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2017-virginia-gov-race-gillespie-r-vs-northam-d/788920/49 "2017-11-06T00:14:25Z")
> [@Lord\_Feldon](#): > > “Ralph Northam wants police officers on the streets keeping you safe. Ed Gillespie wants them behind desks filling out paperwork for Donald Trump.” > > But no, he decides to validate Democrats’ self-stereotype about their guys rolling over, crying, and flip-flopping whenever a Republican says something mean. But, see, that sort of goes back to what I was just asking about: Northam, who earned an MD and spent years as an Army officer and years in the state legislature before he got elected lieutenant governor, clearly put plenty of thought into the situation before he decided it made sense to so change the script. So what should we say if he winds up winning this thing by a hair, after – in, apparently, _his_ opinion – he took a step that apparently made him more appealing to the electorate? (I mean, yeah, in that case we can always argue that we know better and he would’ve won by more if he’d stayed on-message – but, of course, if he _loses,_ we can always argue that he would’ve lost by _more_ if he’d stayed on-message. So what I’m asking is, is there any make-you-rethink-it _“huh, guess that was the right move from a guy who knew what he was doing”_ outcome, in your view?) ---
**Author:** ![Snowboarder\_Bo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/snowboarder_bo/32/229_2.png) [@Snowboarder\_Bo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Snowboarder_Bo)\ **Post date:** [November 6, 2017, 4:59am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2017-virginia-gov-race-gillespie-r-vs-northam-d/788920/50 "2017-11-06T04:59:28Z")
> [@Budget\_Player\_Cadet](#): > > Nobody brought [this](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KUC0e1Bm1r0) up yet? > > The Latino Victory Fund put out an ad against Gillespie which featured a bunch of minority kids running away from a black pickup truck with a confederate flag and a Gillespie bumper sticker. Followed by the reveal that it was a dream sequence nightmare from those kids, cutting to TV coverage of the Charlottesville march, and asking if this was the future we saw for Virginia. > > This ad… did _not_ go over well. Like, it was bad enough _before_ the New York attack (at which point it was pulled, two days after it started running), and at this point it’s basically a gigantic own goal. Not a great look. Conflating “generic conservative who likes the battle flag in virginia” with “neo-nazi” is _not going to work_. At least not outside of the base that would never vote for Gillespie anyways. Can you describe people’s impressions and any perceived effect from Mr. Gillespie’s ad [that links Mr. Northam to MS13](https://www.washingtonpost.com/video/politics/ed-gillespie-campaign-ad--campaign-2017/2017/09/28/81fa7cda-a476-11e7-b573-8ec86cdfe1ed_video.html?tid=a_inl&utm_term=.e75a3b969189)? Or [the one that links Mr. Northam to a man convicted of possessing child pornography](https://www.washingtonpost.com/local/virginia-politics/gillespie-goes-after-northam-on-felon-rights-restoration-in-new-tv-ad/2017/10/23/afdcc4b8-b82c-11e7-a908-a3470754bbb9_story.html?tid=a_inl&utm_term=.8153820a48ab)? ---
**Author:** ![Budget\_Player\_Cadet](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/budget_player_cadet/32/205_2.png) [@Budget\_Player\_Cadet](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Budget_Player_Cadet)\ **Post date:** [November 6, 2017, 5:48am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2017-virginia-gov-race-gillespie-r-vs-northam-d/788920/51 "2017-11-06T05:48:35Z")
> [@Snowboarder\_Bo](#): > > Can you describe people’s impressions and any perceived effect from Mr. Gillespie’s ad [that links Mr. Northam to MS13](https://www.washingtonpost.com/video/politics/ed-gillespie-campaign-ad--campaign-2017/2017/09/28/81fa7cda-a476-11e7-b573-8ec86cdfe1ed_video.html?tid=a_inl&utm_term=.e75a3b969189)? Or [the one that links Mr. Northam to a man convicted of possessing child pornography](https://www.washingtonpost.com/local/virginia-politics/gillespie-goes-after-northam-on-felon-rights-restoration-in-new-tv-ad/2017/10/23/afdcc4b8-b82c-11e7-a908-a3470754bbb9_story.html?tid=a_inl&utm_term=.8153820a48ab)? To be fair: I cannot. ---
**Author:** ![Snowboarder\_Bo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/snowboarder_bo/32/229_2.png) [@Snowboarder\_Bo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Snowboarder_Bo)\ **Post date:** [November 6, 2017, 6:05am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2017-virginia-gov-race-gillespie-r-vs-northam-d/788920/52 "2017-11-06T06:05:32Z")
> [@Budget\_Player\_Cadet](#): > > To be fair: I cannot. Ah, too bad; I was hoping to learn more about how Virginians are viewing both candidates. In your estimation, do people upset with Mr. Northam over the Latino Victory Fund ad know that he didn’t run it; that an outside advocacy group ran it? Is that just seen as inconsequential or is it not even acknowledged? Do you think a large number of swing voters will turn to Mr. Gillespie because of the LVF ad? ---
**Author:** ![Snowboarder\_Bo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/snowboarder_bo/32/229_2.png) [@Snowboarder\_Bo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Snowboarder_Bo)\ **Post date:** [November 6, 2017, 4:12pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2017-virginia-gov-race-gillespie-r-vs-northam-d/788920/53 "2017-11-06T16:12:25Z")
On the day before the election, “[both candidates claim momentum in Virginia governor’s race](https://apnews.com/2646a1e82a9048b592012792348dd267/Both-candidates-claim-momentum-in-Virginia-governor's-race)”, says the AP: > [@](#): > > The candidates are racing across the state Monday after a weekend spent trying to trying to rally supporters ahead of the Tuesday vote. > > Northam felt strong enthusiasm from his supporters and said he was heartened by the high number of absentee votes that had been cast so far compared with four years ago, particularly in Democratic-leaning areas. Northam predicted turnout could be significantly higher than recent past gubernatorial elections. > > “We may get well over 50 percent, which would be real good for our party,” Northam said. Meanwhile, Mr. Gillespie claimed he had the lead: > [@](#): > > Gillespie told supporters at a rally Sunday that Republicans were set to sweep statewide races. > > “We no longer just have momentum — we have the lead,” Gillespie said. [Fivethirtyeight’s Harry Enton has an excellent breakdown of the latest poll results](https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-virginia-governors-race-might-not-be-predictive-but-it-could-really-matter/). The analysis is very thorough; I recommend reading it if you’re interested in this race and in the 2018 midterms: > [@](#): > > Republicans seem intent on looking to Tuesday’s results for clues about how to run in 2018. Specifically, they want to see how Gillespie’s message plays. Gillespie, an establishment Republican by pretty much any reasonable standard, has tried to mix the traditional Republican message of lower taxes with the Trump message of being tough on crime and immigration. He’s combining economic conservatism with cultural conservatism. In doing so, he hopes to appeal to normally Republican voters as well as the white working-class voters who were brought into the Republican tent by Trump’s message. > > If Gillespie wins, expect Republicans to copy his playbook in 2018. > [@](#): > > Democrats, for their own part, may look to Virginia to understand whether the party is turning out black voters. Black voter turnout declined in 2016 (much to Hillary Clinton’s detriment) and has stayed relatively low in special elections this year. If Northam loses, it may spark a conversation that the Democratic Party at large and Northam specifically did not do enough to energize black turnout. Mr. Enton’s conclusion: > [@](#): > > One last thing to remember: The heavily Democratic Washington suburbs tend to report their results later than the rest of the state. So just because Gillespie has an early lead, it doesn’t mean he’s going to win. Trump led very late into the evening on Election Day 2016 before losing the state by 5 points. > > The polls suggest a similar fate awaits Gillespie in 2017, though we won’t know until the votes are actually counted. ---
**Author:** ![Caffeine.addict](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/c/f475e1/32.png) [@Caffeine.addict](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Caffeine.addict)\ **Post date:** [November 6, 2017, 8:28pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2017-virginia-gov-race-gillespie-r-vs-northam-d/788920/54 "2017-11-06T20:28:43Z")
The Democrats have been working on turning out the vote. We’ve had people coming to the door, people calling and people texting to make sure we get out and vote tomorrow. My Republican colleague who lives nearby says that he hasn’t had any contact him about getting out and voting. ---
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [November 7, 2017, 2:32am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2017-virginia-gov-race-gillespie-r-vs-northam-d/788920/55 "2017-11-07T02:32:33Z")
Not sure how much this matters, but recall that in Gillespie’s race against Mark Warner, he outperformed his polling. By a lot. > **[2014 United States Senate election in Virginia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_Senate_election_in_Virginia,_2014)** > > Mark Warner > Democratic > Mark Warner > Democratic > The 2014 United States Senate election in Virginia was held on November 4, 2014, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the Commonwealth of Virginia, concurrently with other elections to the United States Senate, elections to the United States House of Representatives, and various state and local elections. The polls showed Warner with a really big lead. Warner ended up winning by less than 1%. ---
**Author:** ![asahi](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/asahi/32/8693_2.png) [@asahi](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/asahi)\ **Post date:** [November 7, 2017, 2:47am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2017-virginia-gov-race-gillespie-r-vs-northam-d/788920/56 "2017-11-07T02:47:15Z")
I can’t speak to VA specifically but my recollection is that state-level polling data was pretty crap in 2016, and it was a huge reason why so many pundits got the presidential race wrong. I wonder just how accurate statewide reporting is in VA. I suspect that a lot of non-white voters may be waiting to send the GOP a message, but I also wonder if Donna Brazile’s bombshell (which is actually a nothing burger in reality) will depress turnout among Dems. If the Dems lose this race then it’s the canary in the coal mine for their future prospects. This is a blue state for practical purposes and to lose it would be devastating for the Democratic party. ---
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [November 7, 2017, 2:51am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2017-virginia-gov-race-gillespie-r-vs-northam-d/788920/57 "2017-11-07T02:51:40Z")
Not devastating so much as a rude shock, and would demonstrate how much power Trumpism has among white voters. Gillespie has played to those voters explicitly. And it’s not REALLY a blue state, so much as a purple state that Democrats have cracked the code on. Florida is also a purple state, yet Republican dominanted in recent years. In some states, one party is just better organized and has better candidates than the other party, despite being more competitive in Presidential elections. Democrats who win in Virginia statewide are definitely of the Blue Dog variety. And Republicans still feel free to run as ardent conservatives in that state. Although it hasn’t gone well for them. ---
**Author:** ![BobLibDem](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/boblibdem/32/3149_2.png) [@BobLibDem](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BobLibDem)\ **Post date:** [November 7, 2017, 11:50am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2017-virginia-gov-race-gillespie-r-vs-northam-d/788920/58 "2017-11-07T11:50:57Z")
> [@adaher](#): > > Not devastating so much as a rude shock, and would demonstrate how much power Trumpism has among white voters. Let’s call a spade a spade, we’re talking about RACISM, not T\*\*\*pism. There are certain white Republican voters who respond very well to appeals to their racism. There is nothing more to it than that. ---
**Author:** ![asahi](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/asahi/32/8693_2.png) [@asahi](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/asahi)\ **Post date:** [November 7, 2017, 12:16pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2017-virginia-gov-race-gillespie-r-vs-northam-d/788920/59 "2017-11-07T12:16:25Z")
The reason I think it would be devastating for the DNC is that it might lead some to conclude that the party can’t win anymore and needs to be reformulated into something else. There are several important questions being debated by progressives in 2017. What does it mean to be a progressive? Does the Democratic party represent progressive causes? Can the Democratic party unite different shades of progressives? Increasingly, those on the far left want nothing to do with centrist Democrats and that concerns me because the coalition of voters is what is most likely to be successful in larger more diverse campaigns like statewide and national races. If the Democrats lose tonight in VA, I think there will be soul searching and the Bernie wing of the party is going to get louder. But with all due respect, I think they’ll be pushing the party in the wrong direction, the way that they did in 1972. ---
**Author:** ![John\_Mace](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/john_mace/32/185_2.png) [@John\_Mace](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/John_Mace)\ **Post date:** [November 7, 2017, 3:04pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2017-virginia-gov-race-gillespie-r-vs-northam-d/788920/60 "2017-11-07T15:04:42Z")
> [@asahi](#): > > The reason I think it would be devastating for the DNC is that it might lead some to conclude that the party can’t win anymore and needs to be reformulated into something else. Here’s to hoping the Republicans conclude that “the party can’t win like this”, and needs to be reformulated into something non-Trumpian. 🙂 [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2017-virginia-gov-race-gillespie-r-vs-northam-d/788920.md?page=2) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2017-virginia-gov-race-gillespie-r-vs-northam-d/788920.md?page=4)