# 2017 Virginia Gov. race: Gillespie (R) vs. Northam (D) **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Created:** [June 14, 2017, 2:52am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2017-virginia-gov-race-gillespie-r-vs-northam-d/788920 "2017-06-14T02:52:46Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 5
**Author:** ![iiandyiiii](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/iiandyiiii/32/7924_2.png) [@iiandyiiii](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/iiandyiiii)\ **Post date:** [November 8, 2017, 12:41am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2017-virginia-gov-race-gillespie-r-vs-northam-d/788920/81 "2017-11-08T00:41:52Z")
> [@John\_Mace](#): > > Thanks for the link, but this is a live blog, and I’m not seeing that this is what they are saying now: > > _This is about that point in the night when people probably read too much into thin reeds of data. With that said, the data tells a fairly consistent story, with pre-election polls, the exit poll and the results so far (adjusted for the precincts where they’re coming from) all indicating a narrow Northam advantage. [Nate Sliver; 7:28 PM EST]_ > > But maybe I missed that. Would he call 5 points a “narrow win”? The 5 points came from a post about exit polls earlier. ---
**Author:** ![Richard\_Parker](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/35a633/32.png) [@Richard\_Parker](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Richard_Parker)\ **Post date:** [November 8, 2017, 12:43am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2017-virginia-gov-race-gillespie-r-vs-northam-d/788920/82 "2017-11-08T00:43:33Z")
Looks like VA might also elect its first openly trans state legislator. Props. ---
**Author:** ![Left\_Hand\_of\_Dorkness](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/left_hand_of_dorkness/32/7156_2.png) [@Left\_Hand\_of\_Dorkness](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Left_Hand_of_Dorkness)\ **Post date:** [November 8, 2017, 12:48am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2017-virginia-gov-race-gillespie-r-vs-northam-d/788920/83 "2017-11-08T00:48:29Z")
> [@iiandyiiii](#): > > The 5 points came from a post about exit polls earlier. [NYTimes](https://www.nytimes.com/elections/results/virginia-governor-election-gillespie-northam?hp&action=click&pgtype=Homepage&clickSource=story-heading&module=first-column-region®ion=top-news&WT.nav=top-news) is, at the moment of this post, predicting a 6.5% win for Northam (not set in stone, but as a best guess). ---
**Author:** ![iiandyiiii](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/iiandyiiii/32/7924_2.png) [@iiandyiiii](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/iiandyiiii)\ **Post date:** [November 8, 2017, 12:54am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2017-virginia-gov-race-gillespie-r-vs-northam-d/788920/84 "2017-11-08T00:54:31Z")
That’s a solid Northam win, if it holds up at 5-6 points. Not huge, but comfortable and not a squeaker. Not enough that I’ll say with strong confidence that we’re headed for a Democratic wave election in '18, but enough to say that it’s still very possible, and that Republicans in Congress are likely to be very nervous. Especially since Northam may have been a kinda crappy candidate who ran a kinda crappy campaign. ---
**Author:** ![John\_Mace](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/john_mace/32/185_2.png) [@John\_Mace](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/John_Mace)\ **Post date:** [November 8, 2017, 12:55am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2017-virginia-gov-race-gillespie-r-vs-northam-d/788920/85 "2017-11-08T00:55:46Z")
> [@Left\_Hand\_of\_Dorkness](#): > > [NYTimes](https://www.nytimes.com/elections/results/virginia-governor-election-gillespie-northam?hp&action=click&pgtype=Homepage&clickSource=story-heading&module=first-column-region®ion=top-news&WT.nav=top-news) is, at the moment of this post, predicting a 6.5% win for Northam (not set in stone, but as a best guess). The Dems have a lot more to lose than the GOP in this race, so a narrow win by Notham would be good, but not that good. A 6.5% win would be fantastic!! ---
**Author:** ![iiandyiiii](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/iiandyiiii/32/7924_2.png) [@iiandyiiii](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/iiandyiiii)\ **Post date:** [November 8, 2017, 12:56am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2017-virginia-gov-race-gillespie-r-vs-northam-d/788920/86 "2017-11-08T00:56:25Z")
> [@Left\_Hand\_of\_Dorkness](#): > > [NYTimes](https://www.nytimes.com/elections/results/virginia-governor-election-gillespie-northam?hp&action=click&pgtype=Homepage&clickSource=story-heading&module=first-column-region®ion=top-news&WT.nav=top-news) is, at the moment of this post, predicting a 6.5% win for Northam (not set in stone, but as a best guess). Cool link! Now it’s up to Northam by over 7. ---
**Author:** ![iiandyiiii](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/iiandyiiii/32/7924_2.png) [@iiandyiiii](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/iiandyiiii)\ **Post date:** [November 8, 2017, 1:00am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2017-virginia-gov-race-gillespie-r-vs-northam-d/788920/87 "2017-11-08T01:00:25Z")
If Northam wins by over 7, then I think that’s a sign that in the present environment, campaigns in statewide races (and maybe many others) don’t matter much – it’s really all about Trump… and right now voters are not liking Trump. By which I mean that it doesn’t really matter how good a candidate is, or how good their campaigns are – voters are energized for or against Trump, and they’ll come out and vote that way (mostly) no matter what the candidates do. ---
**Author:** ![Richard\_Parker](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/35a633/32.png) [@Richard\_Parker](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Richard_Parker)\ **Post date:** [November 8, 2017, 1:02am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2017-virginia-gov-race-gillespie-r-vs-northam-d/788920/88 "2017-11-08T01:02:59Z")
Might Dems take the House in Virginia?? Wow. ---
**Author:** ![John\_Mace](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/john_mace/32/185_2.png) [@John\_Mace](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/John_Mace)\ **Post date:** [November 8, 2017, 1:10am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2017-virginia-gov-race-gillespie-r-vs-northam-d/788920/89 "2017-11-08T01:10:28Z")
> [@iiandyiiii](#): > > If Northam wins by over 7, then I think that’s a sign that in the present environment, campaigns in statewide races (and maybe many others) don’t matter much – it’s really all about Trump… and right now voters are not liking Trump. By which I mean that it doesn’t really matter how good a candidate is, or how good their campaigns are – voters are energized for or against Trump, and they’ll come out and vote that way (mostly) no matter what the candidates do. If Northam wins decisively in VA, that puts other GOP candidates between a rock and a hard place. Do they assume that campaigning like Trump = lose? Or do they worry that distancing themselves from Trump just alienates the base. Do they Campaign like Trump in the primary, but pivot to not-like-Trump in the general? Who knew politicking was so complicated!? ---
**Author:** ![Left\_Hand\_of\_Dorkness](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/left_hand_of_dorkness/32/7156_2.png) [@Left\_Hand\_of\_Dorkness](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Left_Hand_of_Dorkness)\ **Post date:** [November 8, 2017, 1:11am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2017-virginia-gov-race-gillespie-r-vs-northam-d/788920/90 "2017-11-08T01:11:49Z")
538 just referred to “the down-ballot wreckage for the GOP in House of Delegates races” in Virginia. Since the first special election this year, I and a bunch of people have been saying that Republican wins don’t mean that much, since the special elections were mostly for solid Republican districts (from which Trump was recruiting cabinet nominees). We said that the margin should be looked at, and that the relative strength of Democrats, even in races they lost, was a sign for hope. We were mocked and ridiculed for that claim. Curious about the mockers tonight. Edit: Heh–I promise I submitted this post before Harry Enten, again at 538, wrote: > [@Enten](#): > > You probably remember that we’d been saying that margins matter more than binary wins and losses in special elections earlier this year. That is, the fact that Democrats were doing better than the baseline as determined by past presidential results was more predictive than wins and losses of future results. You’re seeing that in the results tonight. Democrats are breaking through in many different races across different states. ---
**Author:** ![Aspenglow](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/aspenglow/32/76_2.png) [@Aspenglow](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Aspenglow)\ **Post date:** [November 8, 2017, 1:12am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2017-virginia-gov-race-gillespie-r-vs-northam-d/788920/91 "2017-11-08T01:12:07Z")
They just called it for Northam. Tears of joy in my eyes! ---
**Author:** ![iiandyiiii](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/iiandyiiii/32/7924_2.png) [@iiandyiiii](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/iiandyiiii)\ **Post date:** [November 8, 2017, 1:12am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2017-virginia-gov-race-gillespie-r-vs-northam-d/788920/92 "2017-11-08T01:12:47Z")
WOOOOOO!!! God what a relief. I was nervous as hell. I thought Northam would win, but I was only about 51% confident. A big win will be ENORMOUS for Democratic morale. ---
**Author:** ![Left\_Hand\_of\_Dorkness](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/left_hand_of_dorkness/32/7156_2.png) [@Left\_Hand\_of\_Dorkness](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Left_Hand_of_Dorkness)\ **Post date:** [November 8, 2017, 1:14am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2017-virginia-gov-race-gillespie-r-vs-northam-d/788920/93 "2017-11-08T01:14:00Z")
edit: realized I could edit my post above instead of making a new one. ---
**Author:** ![elucidator](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/8edcca/32.png) [@elucidator](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/elucidator)\ **Post date:** [November 8, 2017, 1:14am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2017-virginia-gov-race-gillespie-r-vs-northam-d/788920/94 "2017-11-08T01:14:09Z")
> [@](#): > > …A big win will be ENORMOUS for Democratic morale. Being nicer works! Nothing but blue skies and sunshine ahead! Minnesota will probably be willing to provide “nice” counselors to Dems in other states. Most will need to be treated for stress when they return, but hey! ---
**Author:** ![GreysonCarlisle](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/g/a87d85/32.png) [@GreysonCarlisle](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/GreysonCarlisle)\ **Post date:** [November 8, 2017, 1:17am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2017-virginia-gov-race-gillespie-r-vs-northam-d/788920/95 "2017-11-08T01:17:29Z")
NYT estimates a Northam win by 8.5 points. ---
**Author:** ![RTFirefly](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/c77e96/32.png) [@RTFirefly](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RTFirefly)\ **Post date:** [November 8, 2017, 1:18am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2017-virginia-gov-race-gillespie-r-vs-northam-d/788920/96 "2017-11-08T01:18:00Z")
> [@RTFirefly](#): > > I’m rather nervous about tonight. I think it could go one of two ways: either it’ll be a squeaker that won’t have a clear winner until late, or Dem turnout will disappoint and Gillespie’s supporters will party early. > [@Ludovic](#): > > It could also go the other way if the turnout is as good for the Dems as it was during the special elections. Very, very happy to be wrong! 😃 ---
**Author:** ![wonky](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/wonky/32/393_2.png) [@wonky](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/wonky)\ **Post date:** [November 8, 2017, 1:23am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2017-virginia-gov-race-gillespie-r-vs-northam-d/788920/97 "2017-11-08T01:23:21Z")
> [@Richard\_Parker](#): > > Might Dems take the House in Virginia?? Wow. Looking at the NY Times site, I counted 14 GOP incumbents trailing, some by a lot. ---
**Author:** ![Ludovic](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/l/7ab992/32.png) [@Ludovic](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Ludovic)\ **Post date:** [November 8, 2017, 1:24am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2017-virginia-gov-race-gillespie-r-vs-northam-d/788920/98 "2017-11-08T01:24:41Z")
> [@Left\_Hand\_of\_Dorkness](#): > > 538 just referred to “the down-ballot wreckage for the GOP in House of Delegates races” in Virginia. > > Since the first special election this year, I and a bunch of people have been saying that Republican wins don’t mean that much, since the special elections were mostly for solid Republican districts (from which Trump was recruiting cabinet nominees). We said that the margin should be looked at, and that the relative strength of Democrats, even in races they lost, was a sign for hope. > > We were mocked and ridiculed for that claim. > > Curious about the mockers tonight. > > Edit: Heh–I promise I submitted this post before Harry Enten, again at 538, wrote: I’ve been saying that too and have wondered about the critical thinking skills of those who expressed “concern” that the democratic party couldn’t pull off almost any wins in the special elections. They had such a huge swing in the special elections versus the 2016 November elections that it was definitely not something to crow about on the GOP side, and it appears that, for now at least, that momentum has been holding. ---
**Author:** ![BobLibDem](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/boblibdem/32/3149_2.png) [@BobLibDem](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BobLibDem)\ **Post date:** [November 8, 2017, 1:26am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2017-virginia-gov-race-gillespie-r-vs-northam-d/788920/99 "2017-11-08T01:26:12Z")
Well, looks like the first major verdict on Don the Con has been rendered. Bigly. Sad! ---
**Author:** ![GreysonCarlisle](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/g/a87d85/32.png) [@GreysonCarlisle](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/GreysonCarlisle)\ **Post date:** [November 8, 2017, 1:26am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2017-virginia-gov-race-gillespie-r-vs-northam-d/788920/100 "2017-11-08T01:26:52Z")
Fairfax is leading Vogel 50.98 to 48.95 for Lt. Gov. Herring is leading Adams 51.62 to 48.31 for AG. And Northam is NYT projected to win by 8.7. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2017-virginia-gov-race-gillespie-r-vs-northam-d/788920.md?page=4) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2017-virginia-gov-race-gillespie-r-vs-northam-d/788920.md?page=6)