# 2017 Virginia Gov. race: Gillespie (R) vs. Northam (D) **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Created:** [June 14, 2017, 2:52am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2017-virginia-gov-race-gillespie-r-vs-northam-d/788920 "2017-06-14T02:52:46Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 8
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [November 8, 2017, 4:16am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2017-virginia-gov-race-gillespie-r-vs-northam-d/788920/141 "2017-11-08T04:16:43Z")
> [@John\_Mace](#): > > One thing that bothers me about the Democrats, is I couldn’t for the life of me say who is the head of the party. And yes, I think a leader is important. Obama was great for Obaman, but he wasn’t very good for the Democrats. He’s gone, anyway, so that’s water under the bridge. Someone needs to pull the sword out of the stone and hold it up high so folks can rally 'round! Not a problem, not even in the slightest. If anything, it’s better for a majority party not to have a lightning rod. A leader will emerge in 2020. As for this election, great night for the Democrats, but let’s not get too crazy now. Some people are making this out to be as great as a midterm win and it’s not even close. Any reports on turnout? If turnout is much higher than normal for these elections, that’s something. ---
**Author:** ![Aspenglow](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/aspenglow/32/76_2.png) [@Aspenglow](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Aspenglow)\ **Post date:** [November 8, 2017, 4:18am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2017-virginia-gov-race-gillespie-r-vs-northam-d/788920/142 "2017-11-08T04:18:50Z")
> [@John\_Mace](#): > > One thing that bothers me about the Democrats, is I couldn’t for the life of me say who is the head of the party. And yes, I think a leader is important. Obama was great for Obaman, but he wasn’t very good for the Democrats. He’s gone, anyway, so that’s water under the bridge. Someone needs to pull the sword out of the stone and hold it up high so folks can rally 'round! I keep hearing this, and while I agree leadership is important, at this stage and in this time, I think it’s a complete load of crap. Three years until a presidential campaign is a lifetime. I could name half a dozen folks who could and would easily lead, but there’s a dispute within the party for dominance. Should they jump progressive? Should they appeal to the middle? Who knows? It’s too early to tell which wing of the party will prevail. And why should anyone poke their head up, just to give Russians and Republicans more time to demonize them ahead of the presidential election? That’s the _ **one** _ thing we know for sure will happen. Give the Russians and the US-ian oligarchs more time to work on their Facebook propaganda? I think not. Best to do exactly what they’re doing: One thing at a time, focus on the mid-terms and let the presidential race take care of itself sometime after. It will. ---
**Author:** ![Aspenglow](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/aspenglow/32/76_2.png) [@Aspenglow](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Aspenglow)\ **Post date:** [November 8, 2017, 4:20am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2017-virginia-gov-race-gillespie-r-vs-northam-d/788920/143 "2017-11-08T04:20:56Z")
> [@adaher](#): > > Any reports on turnout? If turnout is much higher than normal for these elections, that’s something. Dems turned out at levels comparable to 2013, which I gather was a Big Year for Turnout. Reports were that Dems haven’t beaten Republicans by this margin for a gubernatorial race since the 1980s. ETA: Referring to Northam’s race, to be clear. Turnout did appear to be consistently high for Dems across the races I followed. ---
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [November 8, 2017, 4:38am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2017-virginia-gov-race-gillespie-r-vs-northam-d/788920/144 "2017-11-08T04:38:05Z")
Then that would mean this race is predictive of nothing, since 2013 led to 2014 and 2016, where turnout by Democrats was disappointing. ---
**Author:** ![Aspenglow](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/aspenglow/32/76_2.png) [@Aspenglow](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Aspenglow)\ **Post date:** [November 8, 2017, 4:40am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2017-virginia-gov-race-gillespie-r-vs-northam-d/788920/145 "2017-11-08T04:40:02Z")
> [@adaher](#): > > Then that would mean this race is predictive of nothing, since 2013 led to 2014 and 2016, where turnout by Democrats was disappointing. Be that as it may, more Republicans stayed home than Democrats. The spread is the spread, and it speaks for itself. ---
**Author:** ![galen\_ubal](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/galen_ubal/32/4440_2.png) [@galen\_ubal](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/galen_ubal)\ **Post date:** [November 8, 2017, 5:06am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2017-virginia-gov-race-gillespie-r-vs-northam-d/788920/146 "2017-11-08T05:06:26Z")
> [@adaher](#): > > Any reports on turnout? If turnout is much higher than normal for these elections, that’s something. > [@Washington Post](#): > > Preliminary exit poll results found 28 percent of voters identifying as liberals, up eight points from the 2013 governor’s race and two points from last year, when Clinton won the state by five points. Democrats composed 41 percent of the electorate, up four points from 2013 and one point from last year. > Republicans were 31 percent of the electorate, a record low in exit polling dating to 1996. [From this Washington Post article.](https://www.washingtonpost.com/local/virginia-politics/polls-close-anticipation-builds-as-virginia-governors-race-results-trickle-in/2017/11/07/68d6941e-c3d4-11e7-84bc-5e285c7f4512_story.html?hpid=hp_hp-top-table-high_vagovernor-8pm%3Ahomepage%2Fstory&utm_term=.4ee35b5c22ab) ---
**Author:** ![Thing\_Fish](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/ecb155/32.png) [@Thing\_Fish](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Thing_Fish)\ **Post date:** [November 8, 2017, 5:13am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2017-virginia-gov-race-gillespie-r-vs-northam-d/788920/147 "2017-11-08T05:13:32Z")
> [@adaher](#): > > Not a problem, not even in the slightest. If anything, it’s better for a majority party not to have a lightning rod. A leader will emerge in 2020. > > As for this election, great night for the Democrats, but let’s not get too crazy now. Some people are making this out to be as great as a midterm win and it’s not even close. > > Any reports on turnout? If turnout is much higher than normal for these elections, that’s something. Per 538, turnout was up 16% relative to 2013, including 31% in Charlottesville. The increased turnout appears to have been almost all in heavily Democratic areas; they gave as an example one precinct that Trump won 434-83, but Gillespie won only 178-37. ---
**Author:** ![Lantern](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/l/d26b3c/32.png) [@Lantern](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Lantern)\ **Post date:** [November 8, 2017, 5:26am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2017-virginia-gov-race-gillespie-r-vs-northam-d/788920/148 "2017-11-08T05:26:50Z")
In 2013, McCauliffe was leading by around 7 points in the polls and won by 3. This time, Northam was leading by 3 in the polls and won by around 10. This seems to suggest good things for Democratic enthusiasm relative to the GOP, especially in conjunction with the good legislative results. ---
**Author:** ![raventhief](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/raventhief/32/4_2.png) [@raventhief](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/raventhief)\ **Post date:** [November 8, 2017, 5:30am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2017-virginia-gov-race-gillespie-r-vs-northam-d/788920/149 "2017-11-08T05:30:19Z")
I am a happy Virginian tonight! ---
**Author:** ![John\_Mace](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/john_mace/32/185_2.png) [@John\_Mace](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/John_Mace)\ **Post date:** [November 8, 2017, 5:55am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2017-virginia-gov-race-gillespie-r-vs-northam-d/788920/150 "2017-11-08T05:55:58Z")
> [@Aspenglow](#): > > I keep hearing this, and while I agree leadership is important, at this stage and in this time, I think it’s a complete load of crap. > > Three years until a presidential campaign is a lifetime. Why would a leader only be needed during the presidential election? And once the presidential nominee is chosen, that person becomes the de facto leader, so that’s done. > [@](#): > > I could name half a dozen folks who could and would easily lead, but there’s a dispute within the party for dominance. Should they jump progressive? Should they appeal to the middle? Who knows? It’s too early to tell which wing of the party will prevail. Yes, exactly. The lack of leader is a symptom of that dispute, so basically you’re saying “who needs a leader since we are unable to choose one”. That doesn’t make a lot of sense. > [@](#): > > And why should anyone poke their head up, just to give Russians and Republicans more time to demonize them ahead of the presidential election? That’s the _ **one** _ thing we know for sure will happen. Give the Russians and the US-ian oligarchs more time to work on their Facebook propaganda? I think not. I don’t consider cowering in fear to be a winning strategy. YMMV. ---
**Author:** ![galen\_ubal](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/galen_ubal/32/4440_2.png) [@galen\_ubal](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/galen_ubal)\ **Post date:** [November 8, 2017, 6:15am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2017-virginia-gov-race-gillespie-r-vs-northam-d/788920/151 "2017-11-08T06:15:49Z")
[NBC News Exit poll](https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2017-election/VA) has some interesting nuggets. 57% disapprove of the way Donald Trump is handling his job as President. To the question “Was one reason for your vote for governor today:” 1)To express support for Donald Trump 17% 2)To express opposition to Donald Trump **34%** 3)Donald Trump was not a factor 47% ---
**Author:** ![Voyager](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/voyager/32/133_2.png) [@Voyager](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Voyager)\ **Post date:** [November 8, 2017, 6:34am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2017-virginia-gov-race-gillespie-r-vs-northam-d/788920/152 "2017-11-08T06:34:27Z")
> [@Lantern](#): > > In 2013, McCauliffe was leading by around 7 points in the polls and won by 3. This time, Northam was leading by 3 in the polls and won by around 10. This seems to suggest good things for Democratic enthusiasm relative to the GOP, especially in conjunction with the good legislative results. MSNBC said that Northam’s most optimistic polls showed him up by 5 - so they were surprised also. ---
**Author:** ![octopus](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/octopus/32/3716_2.png) [@octopus](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/octopus)\ **Post date:** [November 8, 2017, 6:53am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2017-virginia-gov-race-gillespie-r-vs-northam-d/788920/153 "2017-11-08T06:53:27Z")
> [@up\_the\_junction](#): > > Fuck the centre, Dem party now needs to go the full socialist for 2020 🙂 I’d like to see that. ---
**Author:** ![elucidator](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/8edcca/32.png) [@elucidator](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/elucidator)\ **Post date:** [November 8, 2017, 8:57am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2017-virginia-gov-race-gillespie-r-vs-northam-d/788920/154 "2017-11-08T08:57:50Z")
> [@](#): > > …Preliminary exit poll results found 28 percent of voters identifying as liberals… Wait. 28% of Virginians call _themselves_…the “L” word?! ---
**Author:** ![iiandyiiii](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/iiandyiiii/32/7924_2.png) [@iiandyiiii](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/iiandyiiii)\ **Post date:** [November 8, 2017, 10:28am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2017-virginia-gov-race-gillespie-r-vs-northam-d/788920/155 "2017-11-08T10:28:12Z")
Where did **HurricaneDitka** go? 😉 ---
**Author:** ![Jonathan\_Chance](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/jonathan_chance/32/701_2.png) [@Jonathan\_Chance](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Jonathan_Chance)\ **Post date:** [November 8, 2017, 10:35am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2017-virginia-gov-race-gillespie-r-vs-northam-d/788920/156 "2017-11-08T10:35:06Z")
> [@Voyager](#): > > MSNBC said that Northam’s most optimistic polls showed him up by 5 - so they were surprised also. Yes they were. I was speaking to a pal last night. She’s part of the Virginia Democratic Machine and was running GOTV efforts in some districts in NoVa. She’s beside herself with the win. ---
**Author:** ![RTFirefly](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/c77e96/32.png) [@RTFirefly](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RTFirefly)\ **Post date:** [November 8, 2017, 11:01am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2017-virginia-gov-race-gillespie-r-vs-northam-d/788920/157 "2017-11-08T11:01:08Z")
> [@elucidator](#): > > Wait. 28% of Virginians call _themselves_…the “L” word?! Damn. I’m amazed too! In response to **John Mace** , I think it’s worth remembering that in the wake of last year’s debacle, a lot of women and men in Virginia who hadn’t run for office before said, in effect, “I can’t wait any longer for someone to do this for me.” And they stepped up and ran. This was why only about a dozen GOP delegates, out of 66 incumbents, didn’t have challengers. To me, this was the amazing part, that _we, the people_, stepped up and led from below. They didn’t wait for a leader. They didn’t wait to be recruited by the Virginia Democratic Party. _They just freakin’ stepped up._ And so did the voters themselves, showing up in unexpected numbers. Now it’s everyone else’s turn to get in on that act, all across the country. That’s what the left needs right now, to be a genuine bottom-up movement that doesn’t _need_ leaders. That’s what we need to be in 2018. Now for 2020, yes, we’ll need a leader. And one will emerge. But we don’t need one in 2018. ---
**Author:** ![Steve\_MB](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/steve_mb/32/5339_2.png) [@Steve\_MB](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Steve_MB)\ **Post date:** [November 8, 2017, 11:24am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2017-virginia-gov-race-gillespie-r-vs-northam-d/788920/158 "2017-11-08T11:24:32Z")
> [@Aspenglow](#): > > Be that as it may, more Republicans stayed home than Democrats. The spread is the spread, and it speaks for itself. Apparently Trump voters took their lead from [Junior](http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=20587627&postcount=70). :smack: ---
**Author:** ![FlikTheBlue](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/fliktheblue/32/10972_2.png) [@FlikTheBlue](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/FlikTheBlue)\ **Post date:** [November 8, 2017, 12:29pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2017-virginia-gov-race-gillespie-r-vs-northam-d/788920/159 "2017-11-08T12:29:21Z")
> [@John\_Mace](#): > > One thing that bothers me about the Democrats, is I couldn’t for the life of me say who is the head of the party. And yes, I think a leader is important. Obama was great for Obaman, but he wasn’t very good for the Democrats. He’s gone, anyway, so that’s water under the bridge. Someone needs to pull the sword out of the stone and hold it up high so folks can rally 'round! I think having a political leader can wait. What shouldn’t wait is having good leadership at the level of organizing the party. Democrats need a DNC that doesn’t take sides in the primaries and instead stays neutral then works competently to support the primary winners against their Republican challengers. Democrats need a DNC that focuses on fundraising rather than trying to set party policy, instead leaving policy positions up to each individual candidate. There is also a need to have a DNC that doesn’t become part of whatever scandals the Republicans bring up. Those are some of the things that were lacking in the lead up to the 2016 election. ---
**Author:** ![Ruken](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/f475e1/32.png) [@Ruken](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Ruken)\ **Post date:** [November 8, 2017, 12:35pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2017-virginia-gov-race-gillespie-r-vs-northam-d/788920/160 "2017-11-08T12:35:17Z")
Am I counting right? A 50/50 split in the House of Delegates? [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2017-virginia-gov-race-gillespie-r-vs-northam-d/788920.md?page=7) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2017-virginia-gov-race-gillespie-r-vs-northam-d/788920.md?page=9)