# 2018 Election Day Thread **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Created:** [November 6, 2018, 3:43pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2018-election-day-thread/824079 "2018-11-06T15:43:30Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 10
**Author:** ![Celidin](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/c/cc9497/32.png) [@Celidin](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Celidin)\ **Post date:** [November 7, 2018, 1:27am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2018-election-day-thread/824079/182 "2018-11-07T01:27:56Z")
> [@skdo23](#): > > According to CNN, the Blue Wave does not seem to be in danger. James Carville on MSNBC is saying that the Dems may win the house, but there’s really no chance of a wave anymore. ---
**Author:** ![skdo23](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/a5b964/32.png) [@skdo23](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/skdo23)\ **Post date:** [November 7, 2018, 1:28am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2018-election-day-thread/824079/183 "2018-11-07T01:28:12Z")
According to CNN, Beto leads Cruz 51\>48 w/ 32% in. ---
**Author:** ![UltraVires](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/u/ecccb3/32.png) [@UltraVires](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/UltraVires)\ **Post date:** [November 7, 2018, 1:28am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2018-election-day-thread/824079/184 "2018-11-07T01:28:19Z")
> [@skdo23](#): > > I think the 538 updates are automated and therefore erratic, there’s no way Nate Silver could be keeping up with individual House districts in real time, also consider that no west coast districts have reported anything. According to CNN, the Blue Wave does not seem to be in danger. I agree. Looks like a flaw in the website. Nothing is out there to suggest such a drastic change…dammit! 🙂 ---
**Author:** ![Fiveyearlurker](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/f/da6949/32.png) [@Fiveyearlurker](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Fiveyearlurker)\ **Post date:** [November 7, 2018, 1:29am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2018-election-day-thread/824079/185 "2018-11-07T01:29:02Z")
From 538 commentor: “You may have noticed that our real-time forecast has moved toward Republicans in the House. It’s being too aggressive, in my opinion. The model sees that a bunch of “likely Republican” districts (particularly in Florida) are now 100 percent likely to go red. But there hasn’t been the chance for Democrats to clinch many equivalent likely Democratic districts.” ---
**Author:** ![Celidin](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/c/cc9497/32.png) [@Celidin](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Celidin)\ **Post date:** [November 7, 2018, 1:29am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2018-election-day-thread/824079/186 "2018-11-07T01:29:28Z")
> [@skdo23](#): > > I think the 538 updates are automated. NATHANIEL RAKICH from 538: “You may have noticed that our real-time forecast has moved toward Republicans in the House. It’s being too aggressive, in my opinion. The model sees that a bunch of “likely Republican” districts (particularly in Florida) are now 100 percent likely to go red. But there hasn’t been the chance for Democrats to clinch many equivalent likely Democratic districts.” ---
**Author:** ![MaxTheVool](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/9fc29f/32.png) [@MaxTheVool](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/MaxTheVool)\ **Post date:** [November 7, 2018, 1:29am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2018-election-day-thread/824079/187 "2018-11-07T01:29:50Z")
From Nathaniel Rakich on 538: You may have noticed that our real-time forecast has moved toward Republicans in the House. It’s being too aggressive, in my opinion. The model sees that a bunch of “likely Republican” districts (particularly in Florida) are now 100 percent likely to go red. But there hasn’t been the chance for Democrats to clinch many equivalent likely Democratic districts. ---
**Author:** ![Whack-a-Mole](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/whack-a-mole/32/141_2.png) [@Whack-a-Mole](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Whack-a-Mole)\ **Post date:** [November 7, 2018, 1:29am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2018-election-day-thread/824079/188 "2018-11-07T01:29:54Z")
Ok…their real time forecast is back to over 50% for Dems. Seems to me it is nearly worthless. It is merely taking stats of the moment and adjusting its prediction. So when a deep red/blue district reports it’ll skew the percentages bigly. But then the next district comes in and skews it the other way. In short, without a human to interpret what is happening this thing will yo-yo like mad till near the end and is not of much use. ---
**Author:** ![Kolak\_of\_Twilo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/kolak_of_twilo/32/73_2.png) [@Kolak\_of\_Twilo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Kolak_of_Twilo)\ **Post date:** [November 7, 2018, 1:30am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2018-election-day-thread/824079/189 "2018-11-07T01:30:08Z")
> **[What Went Down In The 2018 Midterms](https://fivethirtyeight.com/live-blog/2018-election-results-coverage/?ex_cid=extra_banner)** > > Live coverage and results of the 2018 midterm Election. Analysis of the race for control of the Senate and the House of Representatives from Nate Silver and the FiveThirtyEight team. > [@](#): > > NATHANIEL RAKICH 8:27 PM > You may have noticed that our real-time forecast has moved toward Republicans in the House. It’s being too aggressive, in my opinion. The model sees that a bunch of “likely Republican” districts (particularly in Florida) are now 100 percent likely to go red. But there hasn’t been the chance for Democrats to clinch many equivalent likely Democratic districts. ETA: ninja’d by pretty much everyone. ---
**Author:** ![UltraVires](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/u/ecccb3/32.png) [@UltraVires](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/UltraVires)\ **Post date:** [November 7, 2018, 1:30am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2018-election-day-thread/824079/190 "2018-11-07T01:30:23Z")
Latest blog from [538.com](http://538.com): Y > [@](#): > > ou may have noticed that our real-time forecast has moved toward Republicans in the House. It’s being too aggressive, in my opinion. The model sees that a bunch of “likely Republican” districts (particularly in Florida) are now 100 percent likely to go red. But there hasn’t been the chance for Democrats to clinch many equivalent likely Democratic districts. ---
**Author:** ![Celidin](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/c/cc9497/32.png) [@Celidin](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Celidin)\ **Post date:** [November 7, 2018, 1:30am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2018-election-day-thread/824079/191 "2018-11-07T01:30:53Z")
Anyone know if Nathaniel Rakich from 538 has said anything recently about the aggressiveness of their real-time forecast? ---
**Author:** ![Fiveyearlurker](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/f/da6949/32.png) [@Fiveyearlurker](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Fiveyearlurker)\ **Post date:** [November 7, 2018, 1:31am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2018-election-day-thread/824079/192 "2018-11-07T01:31:03Z")
I won that race! ---
**Author:** ![lisiate](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/l/f05b48/32.png) [@lisiate](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/lisiate)\ **Post date:** [November 7, 2018, 1:33am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2018-election-day-thread/824079/193 "2018-11-07T01:33:14Z")
Umm, that seems a pretty dumb way to set up your forecast. Setting it up so a few 75% reds go to 100% shouldn’t swing the overall prediction a lot at all. ---
**Author:** ![UltraVires](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/u/ecccb3/32.png) [@UltraVires](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/UltraVires)\ **Post date:** [November 7, 2018, 1:34am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2018-election-day-thread/824079/194 "2018-11-07T01:34:18Z")
> [@Celidin](#): > > Anyone know if Nathaniel Rakich from 538 has said anything recently about the aggressiveness of their real-time forecast? Damn. I said it in the post above you. Pay attention! 🙂 ---
**Author:** ![Left\_Hand\_of\_Dorkness](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/left_hand_of_dorkness/32/7156_2.png) [@Left\_Hand\_of\_Dorkness](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Left_Hand_of_Dorkness)\ **Post date:** [November 7, 2018, 1:35am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2018-election-day-thread/824079/195 "2018-11-07T01:35:34Z")
The funny thing is I came here to post that exact quote. I’m still gonna major stink-eye them for the heart attack that gave me. ---
**Author:** ![skdo23](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/a5b964/32.png) [@skdo23](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/skdo23)\ **Post date:** [November 7, 2018, 1:35am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2018-election-day-thread/824079/196 "2018-11-07T01:35:36Z")
What’s going on in FL right now reminds me of when Obama was trailing Romney there in 2012 (Obama won). ---
**Author:** ![Celidin](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/c/cc9497/32.png) [@Celidin](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Celidin)\ **Post date:** [November 7, 2018, 1:35am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2018-election-day-thread/824079/197 "2018-11-07T01:35:37Z")
> [@UltraVires](#): > > Damn. I said it in the post above you. Pay attention! 🙂 Oh sorry, so many things going on! ---
**Author:** ![Ludovic](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/l/7ab992/32.png) [@Ludovic](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Ludovic)\ **Post date:** [November 7, 2018, 1:35am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2018-election-day-thread/824079/198 "2018-11-07T01:35:39Z")
> [@Celidin](#): > > Anyone know if Nathaniel Rakich from 538 has said anything recently about the aggressiveness of their real-time forecast? Ahhh, they’re 2018-style “math race”. ---
**Author:** ![Dale\_Sams](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/779978/32.png) [@Dale\_Sams](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Dale_Sams)\ **Post date:** [November 7, 2018, 1:37am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2018-election-day-thread/824079/199 "2018-11-07T01:37:06Z")
> [@Whack-a-Mole](#): > > Ok…their real time forecast is back to over 50% for Dems. > > Seems to me it is nearly worthless. It is merely taking stats of the moment and adjusting its prediction. So when a deep red/blue district reports it’ll skew the percentages bigly. But then the next district comes in and skews it the other way. > > In short, without a human to interpret what is happening this thing will yo-yo like mad till near the end and is not of much use. Yeah, I don’t get it…gimme a single outcome like a baseball team or a single candidate and i can figure it out but this?? ---
**Author:** ![Moe](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/moe/32/2972_2.png) [@Moe](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Moe)\ **Post date:** [November 7, 2018, 1:37am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2018-election-day-thread/824079/200 "2018-11-07T01:37:53Z")
I hope someone from 538 (perhaps Nathaniel Rakich) has an explanation for the real-time forecast. Have they even taken into account the fact that the democrats haven’t had the chance to clinch likely democratic districts the way republicans have??? (seriously though, this is really testing my stomach) ---
**Author:** ![Left\_Hand\_of\_Dorkness](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/left_hand_of_dorkness/32/7156_2.png) [@Left\_Hand\_of\_Dorkness](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Left_Hand_of_Dorkness)\ **Post date:** [November 7, 2018, 1:40am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2018-election-day-thread/824079/201 "2018-11-07T01:40:00Z")
> [@Nate Silver](#): > > Well, I’m trying to do 6 things at once – we think our live election day forecast is definitely being too aggressive and are going to put it on a more conservative setting where it waits more for projections/calls instead of making inferences from partial vote counts. First? Edit: FIRST! [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2018-election-day-thread/824079.md?page=9) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2018-election-day-thread/824079.md?page=11)