# 2018 Election Day Thread **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Created:** [November 6, 2018, 3:43pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2018-election-day-thread/824079 "2018-11-06T15:43:30Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 13
**Author:** ![Wesley\_Clark](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/wesley_clark/32/20581_2.png) [@Wesley\_Clark](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Wesley_Clark)\ **Post date:** [November 7, 2018, 2:17am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2018-election-day-thread/824079/242 "2018-11-07T02:17:23Z")
> [@iiandyiiii](#): > > Crap, Dems lose IN Senate. Very low chance of a blue Senate without IN. Realistically we weren’t going to get the senate anyway. There are 33 senate elections this year, and 24 are democrats (the democrats had good years in 2006 and 2012) vs only 9 republicans. The idea that we’d hold all 24 seats, and win 2 of the 9 republican seats was a long shot. If it makes you feel better, 2020 will be about 20 GOP senators and only 11 dem senators, with 2 undecided (depends on the outcome tonight for those 2). 2022 will be 21 GOP vs 12 dem senators. Basically this was a terrible year for a blue wave in the senate. A blue wave in 2020 or 2022 would’ve won far more senate seats. But I guess holding onto senate seats is as good as winning new ones. ---
**Author:** ![Whack-a-Mole](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/whack-a-mole/32/141_2.png) [@Whack-a-Mole](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Whack-a-Mole)\ **Post date:** [November 7, 2018, 2:18am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2018-election-day-thread/824079/243 "2018-11-07T02:18:15Z")
> [@Kolak\_of\_Twilo](#): > > MSNBC calling WV for Manchin. I guess that is good considering the alternative but Manchin can only barely be called a liberal…if at all. I’ll take it though since his opponent was even worse. ---
**Author:** ![asahi](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/asahi/32/8693_2.png) [@asahi](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/asahi)\ **Post date:** [November 7, 2018, 2:18am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2018-election-day-thread/824079/244 "2018-11-07T02:18:33Z")
Earlier today, 538 had Joe Donnelly as the (5 in 7 chance) favorite - he lost. ---
**Author:** ![Wesley\_Clark](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/wesley_clark/32/20581_2.png) [@Wesley\_Clark](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Wesley_Clark)\ **Post date:** [November 7, 2018, 2:18am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2018-election-day-thread/824079/245 "2018-11-07T02:18:45Z")
> [@Dale\_Sams](#): > > Seriously. Im calling FL for Dems in 2020 right now. > > Im not kidding. I believe turnout for felons is about 20%. So 1.5 million felons gaining the right to vote would mean about 300k new voters, of which around 85% will be democrats. ---
**Author:** ![JRDelirious](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/jrdelirious/32/9531_2.png) [@JRDelirious](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/JRDelirious)\ **Post date:** [November 7, 2018, 2:19am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2018-election-day-thread/824079/246 "2018-11-07T02:19:24Z")
I’d say Mancin cannot be called a Liberal. He’s a relic of populist Democrats from the last place where you used to have them. In far-down-ballot races, meanwhile, clerk-who-would-not-do-her-job Kim Davis lost her reelection in Rowan County, KY. ---
**Author:** ![Fear\_Itself](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/fear_itself/32/19637_2.png) [@Fear\_Itself](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Fear_Itself)\ **Post date:** [November 7, 2018, 2:19am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2018-election-day-thread/824079/247 "2018-11-07T02:19:57Z")
From Twitter: “Florida could be voting between ice cream and a kick to the head, and it would be 50% to 49%.” ---
**Author:** ![UltraVires](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/u/ecccb3/32.png) [@UltraVires](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/UltraVires)\ **Post date:** [November 7, 2018, 2:21am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2018-election-day-thread/824079/248 "2018-11-07T02:21:00Z")
In FL, DeSantis has 12,000 more votes than Scott, but Gillam has 40,000 fewer votes than Nelson… ETA: Yes, I said that right. ---
**Author:** ![asahi](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/asahi/32/8693_2.png) [@asahi](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/asahi)\ **Post date:** [November 7, 2018, 2:22am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2018-election-day-thread/824079/249 "2018-11-07T02:22:02Z")
> [@Fear\_Itself](#): > > From Twitter: “Florida could be voting between ice cream and a kick to the head, and it would be 50% to 49%.” True, very true. And I just don’t get the Cuban vote - it’s like they believe they’re white. ---
**Author:** ![Kolak\_of\_Twilo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/kolak_of_twilo/32/73_2.png) [@Kolak\_of\_Twilo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Kolak_of_Twilo)\ **Post date:** [November 7, 2018, 2:22am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2018-election-day-thread/824079/250 "2018-11-07T02:22:22Z")
Beto is leading Cruz by 79 votes right now. Seventy-nine. ---
**Author:** ![asahi](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/asahi/32/8693_2.png) [@asahi](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/asahi)\ **Post date:** [November 7, 2018, 2:23am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2018-election-day-thread/824079/251 "2018-11-07T02:23:04Z")
> [@Kolak\_of\_Twilo](#): > > Beto is leading Cruz by 79 votes right now. Seventy-nine. Cruz is going to win. ---
**Author:** ![UltraVires](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/u/ecccb3/32.png) [@UltraVires](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/UltraVires)\ **Post date:** [November 7, 2018, 2:23am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2018-election-day-thread/824079/252 "2018-11-07T02:23:28Z")
> [@asahi](#): > > Nelson has a chance, but not sure about Gillum. In the end, I’m more bullish about Gillum’s chances than Abrams’ in Georgia. But it would suck of the Dems go 0 for 2 in the Southeast. Karl Rove on Fox News saying that there are many votes still out in the Panhandle, but a bunch of votes still out in Palm Beach, Broward, and Dade. So, he says fuck if he knows. ---
**Author:** ![putnam6](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/putnam6/32/4082_2.png) [@putnam6](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/putnam6)\ **Post date:** [November 7, 2018, 2:24am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2018-election-day-thread/824079/253 "2018-11-07T02:24:36Z")
538 Democratic forecast down to 5 of 9 chance of winning the house WTH ---
**Author:** ![Whack-a-Mole](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/whack-a-mole/32/141_2.png) [@Whack-a-Mole](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Whack-a-Mole)\ **Post date:** [November 7, 2018, 2:25am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2018-election-day-thread/824079/254 "2018-11-07T02:25:46Z")
> [@UltraVires](#): > > In FL, DeSantis has 12,000 more votes than Scott, but Gillam has 40,000 fewer votes than Nelson… > > ETA: Yes, I said that right. Huh? ---
**Author:** ![UltraVires](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/u/ecccb3/32.png) [@UltraVires](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/UltraVires)\ **Post date:** [November 7, 2018, 2:26am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2018-election-day-thread/824079/255 "2018-11-07T02:26:14Z")
> [@putnam6](#): > > 538 Democratic forecast down to 5 of 9 chance of winning the house WTH We need some research on whether 538 is being too aggressive in their projections. 🙂 ---
**Author:** ![UltraVires](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/u/ecccb3/32.png) [@UltraVires](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/UltraVires)\ **Post date:** [November 7, 2018, 2:27am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2018-election-day-thread/824079/256 "2018-11-07T02:27:14Z")
> [@Whack-a-Mole](#): > > Huh? Yeah, it seems silly. Gillam must be bleeding votes to a third party candidate. ---
**Author:** ![Buck\_Godot](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/buck_godot/32/6573_2.png) [@Buck\_Godot](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Buck_Godot)\ **Post date:** [November 7, 2018, 2:27am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2018-election-day-thread/824079/257 "2018-11-07T02:27:53Z")
I’m breaking out the bourbon its going to be a long night. ---
**Author:** ![KidCharlemagne](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/k/ed8c4c/32.png) [@KidCharlemagne](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/KidCharlemagne)\ **Post date:** [November 7, 2018, 2:28am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2018-election-day-thread/824079/258 "2018-11-07T02:28:12Z")
I’m going to start burning pollsters in effigy. ---
**Author:** ![DSeid](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dseid/32/20194_2.png) [@DSeid](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DSeid)\ **Post date:** [November 7, 2018, 2:29am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2018-election-day-thread/824079/259 "2018-11-07T02:29:49Z")
> [@asahi](#): > > Cruz is going to win. Likely. But it will be as I first said back when every said it would be a Cruz blow out in the early days - a very late night of it. Meanwhile in IL Sean Casten is ahead of Roskem by 9 points with 16% in. 🙂 But in WV Ojeda is down by over 10 with 40% in. ☹ ---
**Author:** ![Moe](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/moe/32/2972_2.png) [@Moe](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Moe)\ **Post date:** [November 7, 2018, 2:30am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2018-election-day-thread/824079/260 "2018-11-07T02:30:24Z")
> [@UltraVires](#): > > We need some research on whether 538 is being too aggressive in their projections. 🙂 I sure could use some input from Nathaniel Rakich right about now. ---
**Author:** ![Whack-a-Mole](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/whack-a-mole/32/141_2.png) [@Whack-a-Mole](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Whack-a-Mole)\ **Post date:** [November 7, 2018, 2:30am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2018-election-day-thread/824079/261 "2018-11-07T02:30:55Z")
> [@UltraVires](#): > > We need some research on whether 538 is being too aggressive in their projections. 🙂 I think Silver told someone to dial the Predictor Bot 9000 down from 11. It has been hovering around 50% (give or take a few percent) for a while. So still basically useless. Flip a coin and you will do as well as their algorithm. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2018-election-day-thread/824079.md?page=12) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2018-election-day-thread/824079.md?page=14)