# 2018 is looking more and more interesting. **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Created:** [September 8, 2017, 4:54pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2018-is-looking-more-and-more-interesting/795821 "2017-09-08T16:54:17Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 2
**Author:** ![iiandyiiii](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/iiandyiiii/32/7924_2.png) [@iiandyiiii](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/iiandyiiii)\ **Post date:** [September 13, 2017, 9:43pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2018-is-looking-more-and-more-interesting/795821/21 "2017-09-13T21:43:14Z")
> [@HurricaneDitka](#): > > When you have to drill all the way down into state legislature seats to find your glimmer of hope, I don’t know what more needs to be said on the matter. [This article from Politico today](http://www.politico.com/story/2017/09/13/teflon-trump-democrats-messaging-242607) seems relevant: You’re right, I should abandon all hope, rather than look rationally at the special elections so far and notice that Democrats are generally doing significantly better than they did in 2016. I definitely shouldn’t be cautiously optimistic, volunteering and donating to Democratic campaigns. Far better if I cry in a corner. ---
**Author:** ![suranyi](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/e36b37/32.png) [@suranyi](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/suranyi)\ **Post date:** [September 14, 2017, 12:06am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2018-is-looking-more-and-more-interesting/795821/22 "2017-09-14T00:06:20Z")
> [@HurricaneDitka](#): > > When you have to drill all the way down into state legislature seats to find your glimmer of hope, I don’t know what more needs to be said on the matter. [This article from Politico today](http://www.politico.com/story/2017/09/13/teflon-trump-democrats-messaging-242607) seems relevant: Now you’re the one putting your hopes into polls. As 538 says, all the recent actual election returns have shown a very strong shift towards the Democrats. There have simply been a lot more state legislature elections than congressional elections. ---
**Author:** ![Sage\_Rat](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/sage_rat/32/399_2.png) [@Sage\_Rat](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Sage_Rat)\ **Post date:** [September 14, 2017, 12:27am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2018-is-looking-more-and-more-interesting/795821/23 "2017-09-14T00:27:31Z")
> [@HurricaneDitka](#): > > When you have to drill all the way down into state legislature seats to find your glimmer of hope, I don’t know what more needs to be said on the matter. [This article from Politico today](http://www.politico.com/story/2017/09/13/teflon-trump-democrats-messaging-242607) seems relevant: Good article, but it seems worth noting that while the Democrats simply assumed that they merely needed to be better than Donald Trump last round, this time they’re actually doing some amount of market research in advance and shooting down ideas that don’t work. This isn’t to say that they’ll land on something that works, but at least they’re following a reasonable procedure to end up in a place that is connected to reality next time around. If it was one month before election day, then this would be a disheartening article for Democrats. Over a year in advance, it’s probably encouraging. ---
**Author:** ![Happy\_Lendervedder](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/happy_lendervedder/32/8488_2.png) [@Happy\_Lendervedder](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Happy_Lendervedder)\ **Post date:** [September 14, 2017, 3:21am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2018-is-looking-more-and-more-interesting/795821/24 "2017-09-14T03:21:05Z")
> [@Sage\_Rat](#): > > Good article, but it seems worth noting that while the Democrats simply assumed that they merely needed to be better than Donald Trump last round, this time they’re actually doing some amount of market research in advance and shooting down ideas that don’t work. This isn’t to say that they’ll land on something that works, but at least they’re following a reasonable procedure to end up in a place that is connected to reality next time around. > > If it was one month before election day, then this would be a disheartening article for Democrats. Over a year in advance, it’s probably encouraging. If you notice, the polling and focus groups were done by the Dems, and the results weren’t actually released. The results were just “discussed” with Politico by top dogs at the DNC for the article. So, yeah, this is strategic on the part of the Democratic Party. ---
**Author:** ![Hung\_Mung](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/h/a88e4f/32.png) [@Hung\_Mung](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Hung_Mung)\ **Post date:** [September 14, 2017, 10:51am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2018-is-looking-more-and-more-interesting/795821/25 "2017-09-14T10:51:37Z")
> [@gatorslap](#): > > I doubt the Democrats have much chance in Tennessee even if Corker retires. Their chances there would be slightly higher than a state like Idaho or something, but still, Tennessee is awfully red these days. East TN is especially red. I would be happy to see Corker go, but we’d probably end up with Diane Black or Marsha Blackburn. God, the governor election is going to be a shitshow. Mae Beavers, Diane Black and whispers of the one and only Alberto Gonzalez. ---
**Author:** ![Whack-a-Mole](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/whack-a-mole/32/141_2.png) [@Whack-a-Mole](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Whack-a-Mole)\ **Post date:** [September 14, 2017, 6:32pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2018-is-looking-more-and-more-interesting/795821/26 "2017-09-14T18:32:30Z")
> [@squidfood](#): > > As (D) as I am in principle, I respect many moderate Republicans and hate the fact that the swings of the last 20 years have shoved out moderates on both sides. What (D) moderates have been shoved out? > [@](#): > > \*n the most recent Congress nearly 90 percent of Republican House members are not politically moderate. By contrast, 90 percent of Democratic members are moderates. It’s quite difficult to square a chart like this with a claim that Democrats are abandoning the center faster than Republicans. As the chart shows, there are plenty of centrist Democrats left in the House – but hardly any centrist Republicans. > > SOURCE: [https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/wonk/wp/2015/06/02/this-astonishing-chart-shows-how-republicans-are-an-endangered-species/?utm\_term=.1ff06e9340c9](https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/wonk/wp/2015/06/02/this-astonishing-chart-shows-how-republicans-are-an-endangered-species/?utm_term=.1ff06e9340c9) ---
**Author:** ![HurricaneDitka](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/h/96bed5/32.png) [@HurricaneDitka](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/HurricaneDitka)\ **Post date:** [September 14, 2017, 6:46pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2018-is-looking-more-and-more-interesting/795821/27 "2017-09-14T18:46:22Z")
> [@Whack-a-Mole](#): > > What (D) moderates have been shoved out? Jim Matheson, from Utah, was a moderate Democrat. He is no longer in office. ---
**Author:** ![iiandyiiii](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/iiandyiiii/32/7924_2.png) [@iiandyiiii](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/iiandyiiii)\ **Post date:** [September 14, 2017, 6:49pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2018-is-looking-more-and-more-interesting/795821/28 "2017-09-14T18:49:51Z")
Ahh, the famous Jim Matheson, who I’ve definitely heard of and didn’t have to google just now to confirm his existence. ---
**Author:** ![HurricaneDitka](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/h/96bed5/32.png) [@HurricaneDitka](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/HurricaneDitka)\ **Post date:** [September 14, 2017, 6:54pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2018-is-looking-more-and-more-interesting/795821/29 "2017-09-14T18:54:00Z")
> [@iiandyiiii](#): > > Ahh, the famous Jim Matheson, who I’ve definitely heard of and didn’t have to google just now to confirm his existence. I was giving an example local to me. I can’t help that you were ignorant of him. Here is perhaps a more thorough summary, from [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Blue_Dog_Coalition#Membership): > [@](#): > > After growth in the caucus after the 2006 and 2008 elections, Blue Dog membership was nearly cut in half by the 2010 election, in which 26 members were re-elected but 28 were either defeated or chose not to run for re-election. Blue Dog membership was nearly cut in half again for the 113th Congress. Of the 27 Blue Dogs, 3 resigned (Giffords, Cardoza and Harman), while 10 chose not to run for re-election or were defeated. Of the remaining 14 members Adam Schiff left the coalition, but Pete Gallego (Texas), Kyrsten Sinema (Arizona), Ron Barber (Arizona), Nick Rahall (West Virginia), Dan Lipinski (Illinois), and Cheri Bustos (Illinois) joined them for the 113th Congress. ---
**Author:** ![iiandyiiii](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/iiandyiiii/32/7924_2.png) [@iiandyiiii](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/iiandyiiii)\ **Post date:** [September 14, 2017, 6:58pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2018-is-looking-more-and-more-interesting/795821/30 "2017-09-14T18:58:43Z")
> [@HurricaneDitka](#): > > I was giving an example local to me. I can’t help that you were ignorant of him. > > Here is perhaps a more thorough summary, from [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Blue_Dog_Coalition#Membership): The blue dogs lost (or decided not to run because they predicted losing) because they ran in conservative districts which had swung left for '06 and '08, and then swung back in '10 or later. The only Democrat I can think of who was legitimately pushed out by the party was Joe Lieberman, and that was because he endorsed the Republican candidate for President. But there are still tons and tons of moderate Democrats in Congress and the Senate, and many fewer moderate Republicans. ---
**Author:** ![Whack-a-Mole](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/whack-a-mole/32/141_2.png) [@Whack-a-Mole](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Whack-a-Mole)\ **Post date:** [September 14, 2017, 7:11pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2018-is-looking-more-and-more-interesting/795821/31 "2017-09-14T19:11:32Z")
> [@HurricaneDitka](#): > > Jim Matheson, from Utah, was a moderate Democrat. He is no longer in office. One person does not constitute a trend. Besides, seems he retired and was not forced out. It could be argued his seat was in a conservative area and he figured he could not win the next time around (seems likely). Regardless this was a liberal seat going more conservative and I was responding to someone who was suggesting both parties were polarizing (i.e. the right going more to the right and the left going more to the left by forcing moderates out). But that is not the case here. ---
**Author:** ![Sage\_Rat](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/sage_rat/32/399_2.png) [@Sage\_Rat](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Sage_Rat)\ **Post date:** [September 14, 2017, 8:25pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2018-is-looking-more-and-more-interesting/795821/32 "2017-09-14T20:25:20Z")
I’ll just note, as I did in another thread, that if there’s anyone in the DNC paying attention to this board, it might make sense to ask Steve Bullock to write a party platform and trial that around. It sounds about the right speed to grab back the Trump supporters. [http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=20374835&postcount=33](http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=20374835&postcount=33) ---
**Author:** ![Mr.Miskatonic](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/mr.miskatonic/32/310_2.png) [@Mr.Miskatonic](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Mr.Miskatonic)\ **Post date:** [September 14, 2017, 9:37pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2018-is-looking-more-and-more-interesting/795821/33 "2017-09-14T21:37:37Z")
> [@iiandyiiii](#): > > The blue dogs lost (or decided not to run because they predicted losing) because they ran in conservative districts which had swung left for '06 and '08, and then swung back in '10 or later. The only Democrat I can think of who was legitimately pushed out by the party was Joe Lieberman, and that was because he endorsed the Republican candidate for President. > > But there are still tons and tons of moderate Democrats in Congress and the Senate, and many fewer moderate Republicans. I’m not crying for Lieberman given how he shoved one of the last moderate-liberal Reoublicans out of office (Weicker) in a very dirty campaign, then proceeded to be as rabid right as any tea party member. ---
**Author:** ![Wesley\_Clark](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/wesley_clark/32/20581_2.png) [@Wesley\_Clark](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Wesley_Clark)\ **Post date:** [September 22, 2017, 8:31pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2018-is-looking-more-and-more-interesting/795821/34 "2017-09-22T20:31:43Z")
> [@Whack-a-Mole](#): > > What (D) moderates have been shoved out? I believe there were 54 blue dog democrats in the house in 2009, now there are 18. ---
**Author:** ![iiandyiiii](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/iiandyiiii/32/7924_2.png) [@iiandyiiii](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/iiandyiiii)\ **Post date:** [September 22, 2017, 8:49pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2018-is-looking-more-and-more-interesting/795821/35 "2017-09-22T20:49:48Z")
> [@Wesley\_Clark](#): > > I believe there were 54 blue dog democrats in the house in 2009, now there are 18. Those were “pushed out” because they lost to Republicans, not because they were attacked or primaried by lefty Democrats. IIRC, anyway, for the vast majority of those losses. ---
**Author:** ![HurricaneDitka](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/h/96bed5/32.png) [@HurricaneDitka](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/HurricaneDitka)\ **Post date:** [September 22, 2017, 9:29pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2018-is-looking-more-and-more-interesting/795821/36 "2017-09-22T21:29:51Z")
> [@iiandyiiii](#): > > Those were “pushed out” because they lost to Republicans, not because they were attacked or primaried by lefty Democrats. IIRC, anyway, for the vast majority of those losses. **squidfood** ’s original post, to which **Whack-a-Mole** asked ‘which ones?’, and to which I in turn responded, said simply “… the swings of the last 20 years have shoved out moderates on both sides.” It wasn’t, at least as I understood it, focused exclusively on moderates who fell to _primary_ election challengers. I think a group of us are agreeing with squidfood that ‘the swings of the last 20 years have shoved out moderates on both sides’ and another group is saying ‘no, they weren’t primaried by more extreme candidates from their same party, so that’s not what we’re talking about’, or something along those lines. Seems there’s some confusion there anyways. ---
**Author:** ![PastTense](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/pasttense/32/14550_2.png) [@PastTense](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/PastTense)\ **Post date:** [September 26, 2017, 8:26pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2018-is-looking-more-and-more-interesting/795821/37 "2017-09-26T20:26:27Z")
> [@](#): > > Sen. Bob Corker said Tuesday he will not seek re-election next year. > > “After much thought, consideration and family discussion over the past year, Elizabeth and I have decided that I will leave the United States Senate when my term expires at the end of 2018,” the Chattanooga Republican said in a statement. > **[Sen. Bob Corker will not seek re-election next year](https://www.tennessean.com/story/news/politics/2017/09/26/sen-bob-corker-not-seek-re-election-next-year/678088001/)** > > Sen. Bob Corker, chairman of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, announces he will not seek re-election next year. ---
**Author:** ![Lance\_Turbo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lance_turbo/32/6156_2.png) [@Lance\_Turbo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Lance_Turbo)\ **Post date:** [September 26, 2017, 8:56pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2018-is-looking-more-and-more-interesting/795821/38 "2017-09-26T20:56:02Z")
The Corker thing is mildly interesting. Tennessee is a heavy lift for team D and any run of the mill Republican should win Corker’s old seat handily. However, in today’s political climate there’s no guarantee that a run of the mill Republican can win a primary. There’s a decent chance that the R nominee will be so far right that an decent (or at least not horrible) D candidate can win a senate seat in a red state. It’s happened before… [Legitimate rape guy](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Todd_Akin) [Sometimes God intends for rapes to result in pregnancies guy](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Richard_Mourdock) If some Republican tries to out-Trump Trump I could see him winning the nom and losing the general. Apparently all the Dems have to do is put someone forward who is as blandly acceptable [Joe Donnelly](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Joe_Donnelly). Who? What? Sorry I dozed off there. ---
**Author:** ![wolfman](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/w/a8b319/32.png) [@wolfman](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/wolfman)\ **Post date:** [September 27, 2017, 10:11am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2018-is-looking-more-and-more-interesting/795821/39 "2017-09-27T10:11:31Z")
Well the Moore over Trump’s endorsement situation is interesting on the Trumpier than Trump thing too. In their zeal to be anti-Obama the GOP embraced the help of the Tea party, who immediately went rogue from the establishment core of the party. Then Trump came along and went rogue from both of those agendas. Now it looks the Trumpism movement may be capable of going rogue from Trump. And they all call the rest RINOs. I’m very curious how the candidates, and the races, are going to be distributed across the factions next cycle. ---
**Author:** ![Gyrate](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/gyrate/32/3588_2.png) [@Gyrate](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Gyrate)\ **Post date:** [September 27, 2017, 10:21am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2018-is-looking-more-and-more-interesting/795821/40 "2017-09-27T10:21:00Z")
> [@wolfman](#): > > Well the Moore over Trump’s endorsement situation is interesting on the Trumpier than Trump thing too. In their zeal to be anti-Obama the GOP embraced the help of the Tea party, who immediately went rogue from the establishment core of the party. Then Trump came along and went rogue from both of those agendas. Now it looks the Trumpism movement may be capable of going rogue from Trump. And they all call the rest RINOs. **Splitters!** [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2018-is-looking-more-and-more-interesting/795821.md?page=1) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2018-is-looking-more-and-more-interesting/795821.md?page=3)