2018 Mid Terms, Place Your Bets

Greater than what?

A. 8%
B. 47%
C. 35%
D. 8%
E. 2%

With even top Republicans crying “Fool!” at the Fool in Helsinki, I’d like to be a bit more optimistic than this. But by November the top story will be Hillary’s e-mails again, and even the above numbers may be too optimistic.

Anyone paying attention to HRC’s email’s at this point - let alone in November - is already a completely committed R voter. I think these are useful in certain circles as a defense/deflecting technique and talking point, but are not a factor in the election.

You overlook that the average American voter is unusually stupid, and 49% of voters are even stupider than that.

You also ignore that, while many voters are “committed” to one side or the other, the key question is whether they will bother to vote in an off-year. R’s upset by Trump’s shenanigans might stay home, but they’ll turn out to vote if the Lie Machine has them worried that the Witch of Benghazi has more evil planned.

Friggin’ A.

You can make a superficially case for the GOP not being wiped, but remember two things:

  1. This is a midterm. Turnout is going to be low, especially among Trump’s independents. And the electorate will swing away from the President’s party.
  2. There is a huge morale difference between the Resistance and the Republicans, advantage Resistance.

The Democratic Party is still divided on some issues. There are still GOP election officials who will cheat and steal elections. But this is going to be a blowout. The risk is less that the GOP will hold power; rather, that the Democrats who get in may be some mix of too inexperienced, too timid, and/or too corruptible to really turn the tide of the country, and Resistance morale will drop.

I may have meant to say “superficially plausible case.” Whatever. The swing voters that are going to respond mainly to perceived economic trends probably *aren’t *showing up in numbers for the GOP in 2018.

So it’s more about partisan mobilization. And much of the GOP base are leery of Trump personally.

I think choice C or D is likely. ( 65%). Choice A is a pipe dream and Choice E = the death of the Democratic party, time to clean house. I do think E has a greater chance than A. Not giving %'s here. Choice B has a chance, but a small one. Maybe 25%

It would not surprise me this so-called " Blue Wave " has Trump surfing and smiling on it, with 2 more years of Senate control to nominate judges and perhaps the house on board for infrastructure spending and border security.

The house is very hard to call individually. But with a lead of 40+, Republicans might hold. Dem’s are lazy midterm voters. But this is a mid-term and the party in power doesn’t do as well. We’ll see.

With evidence that Obama ordered his chief cybersecurity person to back down during Russia Cyberattacks just before and during our election ( OMG ), and Clinton’s carelessness with her private server, which was hacked, I hope Trump counterpunches the heck out of it because this is the genesis of the Russian meddling in our election.

Mueller has zero on collision. Perhaps a reason why he is not wrapping things is he wants to create an element of doubt until the mid term elections are over.

C I suspect. Many of us underestimate the depth of support for President Trump, or anyone who will put smart-assed coastal elites in our place. For decades we have been disrespectful of flyover people and they have noticed that and returned the favor.

The GOP base is leery of Trump personally? Maybe, but the GOP base support for his Job Approval is through the roof. The GOP base will be at the polls in great numbers.

Donald Trump Job Approval by Party Identification
Weekly averages from Gallup Daily tracking
2018 July 9-15 Republicans 90% Independents 38% Democrats 8%

I predict both the House and Senate will remain in Republican hands, theough the GOP’s margin will shrink.

Based on the betting markets, that’s a brave prediction. Right now, PredictIt has about a 65-70% chance of the Democrats taking the House, and about a 25% of the Democrats taking the Senate.


How did PredictIt do in the Trump vs Hillary race?

Assuming they called it wrong, would the intelligent next question not be “what is PredictIt’s accuracy in general?” It seems premature to try to dismiss them based on just one other prediction.

According to this graph I found with Google, Trump’s chance was estimated at 30% to 40% throughout September, was 20% for much of October, and peaked again at 36% on November 2, a few days after Comey’s surprise.

Be aware that among an ensemble of binary predictions with 36% estimate, the predictor should get 36% of its predictions “wrong”! If it’s “correct” more often than that, it means the prediction was too conservative.

Predictwise is David Rothschild’s effort to develop a single prediction from polling and other sources. I suspect he still gives high weight to predictors like Predictit and Betfair.

At present Rothschild shows a Democratic House at 63%, Democratic Senate 11% (and a 15% chance of a 50-50 Senate ruled by Pence’s tie-breaker).

He shows the 2020 Presidential race as 51-49. Kamala Harris is 14% to be the D nominee; Trump is 70% to be the R.

In a sane world, B. (A is a pipe dream.) But I’m going with C, with D or E not impossibilities. I’ve learned enough from the 2000 and 2016 debacles–those fuckhead fascist-loving race-baiting Republican politicians will do anything short of murder* to win, and the hapless, “they go low we go high,” mealymouthed, appeasing Democrats will yet again manage to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory.

  • I admit that when my tinfoil chapeau isn’t on tight enough, I ponder that the death of Paul Wellstone–the most vocal anti-Iraq War man in the Senate–was way the hell too convenient and too timely. But then I sadly remember that life consists of shitty luck for the good guys, who do indeed die young. And I sigh. (And then make sure to re-scrunch the tinfoil so it fits properly.)

What you’re underestimating are the amount of people who would rather watch it burn down to the ground then vote for either the party of evil or the party of evil-lite.

Prob C.
It seems that the old adage of people voting with their wallets is mega true – the economy seems to be doing well, and so Trump, incredibly, has a high approval rating among registered Reps.

A. 0%
b. 80%
c. 10%
d. 10%
e. 0%

I hope I remember to gloat when you are proven wrong.