# 2018 SCOTUS Predictions

**URL:** <https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2018-scotus-predictions/813608>\
**Category:** In My Humble Opinion\
**Created:** [May 4, 2018, 10:58pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2018-scotus-predictions/813608 "2018-05-04T22:58:32Z")\
**Posts on this page:** 3\
**Page:** 4

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**Author:** ![Iggy](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/iggy/32/3364_2.png) [@Iggy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Iggy)\
**Post date:** [June 27, 2018, 3:56pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2018-scotus-predictions/813608/61 "2018-06-27T15:56:21Z")

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Yeah. Swing and a miss from me.

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**Author:** ![Tired\_and\_Cranky](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/a87d85/32.png) [@Tired\_and\_Cranky](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Tired_and_Cranky)\
**Post date:** [June 27, 2018, 4:22pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2018-scotus-predictions/813608/62 "2018-06-27T16:22:03Z")

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Unions lose the Janus case in an Alito opinion. [https://www.supremecourt.gov/opinions/17pdf/16-1466\_2b3j.pdf](https://www.supremecourt.gov/opinions/17pdf/16-1466_2b3j.pdf)

I think I did okay in my predictions. I didn’t bet on Wayfair but I got all the others directionally right. I didn’t see the bipartisan but limited opinion on Masterpiece coming.

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**Author:** ![Bone](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/bone/32/407_2.png) [@Bone](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Bone)\
**Post date:** [July 5, 2018, 9:53pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2018-scotus-predictions/813608/63 "2018-07-05T21:53:18Z")

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> [@Bone](#):
>
> **My predictions:**  
> **Trump v. Hawaii** is 6-3 upholding the ban with Kagan siding with the 5 conservatives.  
> **Gil** punts somehow saying that partisan gerrymandering is not justiceable, 5-4 conservative wing prevailing.  
> **Masterpiece** the court will establish a balancing test of some kind where free speech is weighed against equal protection and find that the baker doesn’t meet the burden to show their speech is being compelled and rule against the baker. 6-3 with Roberts and Kennedy voting with the liberal wing.  
> **Janus** is 5-4 with conservative wing prevailing with Abood being overruled and agency shop fees in public sector employment will be prohibited  
> **New Jersey** - I have no prediction  
> **Wayfair** will be 7-2 with Sotomayor and Kagan voting with the conservative wing saying preserving the status quo physical presence requirement

So coming back to this…  
[ol]  
[li]Result correct, vote count wrong. I’m counting this one.[/li][li]Punt correct, but reasoning and vote count wrong. I’m saying this is a push :)[/li][li]Just wrong on this one all around.[/li][li]Accurate on both result and vote count. This one counts.[/li][li]N/A[/li][li]Result and vote count wrong :([/li][/ol]

So total of the six is 2 correct, 2 wrong, one push, and one abstain. That’s uhhh…not very good predictive skills 🙂

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