# 2018 US midterm elections **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Created:** [November 9, 2017, 5:09pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2018-us-midterm-elections/801125 "2017-11-09T17:09:22Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 10
**Author:** ![septimus](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/septimus/32/410_2.png) [@septimus](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/septimus)\ **Post date:** [September 23, 2018, 7:00pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2018-us-midterm-elections/801125/182 "2018-09-23T19:00:37Z")
So if today’s ignorant millennials are letting us down in the voting booth, who can save us? ☹ > [@Elendil\_s\_Heir](#): > > Older voters leaning Democratic this year, for a change: [https://www.cnn.com/2018/09/19/politics/the-gops-older-voter-problem/index.html](https://www.cnn.com/2018/09/19/politics/the-gops-older-voter-problem/index.html) _ **Wow!** _ In 2010 that demographic was R+21; in 2014 R+16. And you’re now telling us this next election looks like D+22 ? _**[SIZE=“4”]D + Twenty-frigging Two!![/SIZE]**_ I’m calling out the band: [♩♫ ♩♩ ♩♩♫ ♬♬♬♩♩♩♩♩♫ ♩♩ ♩♩♫ ♩♫ ♩♩ ♩♩♫ ♬♬♩♩](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gqsT4xnKZPg) I admit to prefering [Jack Hylton](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JW-0kbIcf1E) over [Mitch Miller’s version](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=75V3H-FXf78). But let’s do not encourage [Barbra Streisand’s somber rendition.](https://youtu.be/x9NpWs5gM84?t=50s) :smack: ---
**Author:** ![Elendil\_s\_Heir](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/7cd45c/32.png) [@Elendil\_s\_Heir](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Elendil_s_Heir)\ **Post date:** [September 24, 2018, 12:27am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2018-us-midterm-elections/801125/183 "2018-09-24T00:27:44Z")
I’m an optimist at heart, and a Democrat, but I’d encourage you not to count your chickens just yet, my friend… ---
**Author:** ![Gyrate](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/gyrate/32/3588_2.png) [@Gyrate](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Gyrate)\ **Post date:** [September 24, 2018, 11:02am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2018-us-midterm-elections/801125/184 "2018-09-24T11:02:05Z")
> [@Elendil\_s\_Heir](#): > > Six siblings of a Republican Congressman in Arizona cut an ad saying, “Vote for the other guy”: [https://www.cnn.com/2018/09/21/politics/paul-gosar-siblings-ad/index.html](https://www.cnn.com/2018/09/21/politics/paul-gosar-siblings-ad/index.html) I differ politically from various family members, in some cases by a long way, and yet I can’t imagine openly campaigning against any of them if they ran for office. I can only conclude that that guy must be a massive asshole if so many of his family members are doing this. ---
**Author:** ![elucidator](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/8edcca/32.png) [@elucidator](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/elucidator)\ **Post date:** [September 24, 2018, 11:20am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2018-us-midterm-elections/801125/185 "2018-09-24T11:20:22Z")
> [@Elendil\_s\_Heir](#): > > I’m an optimist at heart, and a Democrat, but I’d encourage you not to count your chickens just yet, my friend… And if we win, what we’ve mostly won is the right to clean up after a crackhead chimpanzee made dinner. ---
**Author:** ![septimus](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/septimus/32/410_2.png) [@septimus](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/septimus)\ **Post date:** [September 24, 2018, 12:24pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2018-us-midterm-elections/801125/186 "2018-09-24T12:24:27Z")
> [@Elendil\_s\_Heir](#): > > I’m an optimist at heart, and a Democrat, but I’d encourage you not to count your chickens just yet, my friend… You’ve not been following my posts if you mistake me for an optimist. Nevertheless the chance that both Houses of Congress turn blue after November appears to be 25% or so. It behooves us to pick a rendition just on the off-chance that we have to dust off the Democratic merry-makers. ---
**Author:** ![JB99](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/j/439d5e/32.png) [@JB99](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/JB99)\ **Post date:** [September 24, 2018, 3:18pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2018-us-midterm-elections/801125/187 "2018-09-24T15:18:41Z")
> [@Wesley\_Clark](#): > > Yup. Jones has no chance of winning in 2020, anymore than Scott Brown did of winning re-election. Jones won due to a mix of good fortunes on his side. No matter what he does, he won’t win in 2020. He might as well just do what is right. This is the saddest thing I’ve read all month. It’s become absolutely clear that there is virtually no connection between a politician’s actions and their success. ---
**Author:** ![Tamerlane](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/tamerlane/32/7602_2.png) [@Tamerlane](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Tamerlane)\ **Post date:** [September 24, 2018, 6:01pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2018-us-midterm-elections/801125/188 "2018-09-24T18:01:44Z")
> [@septimus](#): > > Nevertheless the chance that both Houses of Congress turn blue after November appears to be 25% or so. The chance both stay red are probably about the same. Chickens not yet hatched. Do not count. ---
**Author:** ![Happy\_Lendervedder](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/happy_lendervedder/32/8488_2.png) [@Happy\_Lendervedder](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Happy_Lendervedder)\ **Post date:** [September 25, 2018, 5:31pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2018-us-midterm-elections/801125/189 "2018-09-25T17:31:36Z")
[Nelson pulling ahead of challenger Rick Scott in FL, up by 7.](https://thehill.com/blogs/blog-briefing-room/news-campaigns/408308-poll-nelson-leads-scott-in-florida) 'Twas tied 20 days ago. ---
**Author:** ![Elendil\_s\_Heir](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/7cd45c/32.png) [@Elendil\_s\_Heir](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Elendil_s_Heir)\ **Post date:** [October 21, 2018, 2:53am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2018-us-midterm-elections/801125/190 "2018-10-21T02:53:32Z")
How the GOP just might maintain control of the U.S. House: [The Forecast: Republicans could keep the House. Here's how. | CNN Politics](https://www.cnn.com/2018/10/20/politics/the-forecast-republicans-keep-house/index.html) ---
**Author:** ![RTFirefly](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/c77e96/32.png) [@RTFirefly](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RTFirefly)\ **Post date:** [October 21, 2018, 1:13pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2018-us-midterm-elections/801125/191 "2018-10-21T13:13:35Z")
I thought Harry Enten was at 538. Did CNN hire him away? Because [538’s model](https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2018-midterm-election-forecast/house/) currently gives the Dems an 84.6% chance of regaining the House. And Enten’s saying they’ve only got a 72% chance. ---
**Author:** ![RTFirefly](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/c77e96/32.png) [@RTFirefly](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RTFirefly)\ **Post date:** [October 21, 2018, 1:27pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2018-us-midterm-elections/801125/192 "2018-10-21T13:27:01Z")
I thought I’d post the probabilities that 538 gives in races where the odds of the Dem winning are between 10% and 90%, with seats currently GOP-held in italics: Manchin (D-WV) 88% Tester (D-MT) 86% Donnelly (D-IN) 85% Nelson (D-FL) 64% _Sinema (D-AZ) 63%_ McCaskill (D-MO) 61% _Rosen (D-NV) 45%_ Heitkamp (D-ND) 35% _Bredesen (D-TN) 25% Beto (D-TX) 21% Espy (D-MS) 17%_ Thoughts: 1. Heitkamp isn’t dead yet. 35% isn’t great, but it’s a long way from dead. 2. Espy has a 17% chance of winning in MS?! I realize they’ve got two Senate seats up for grabs, and that made a sort of opening, but still: I figured he’d be down in the single digits. 3. I’m surprised that Sinema’s doing better than Rosen. Dean Heller seems like a real asshole, the sort of opponent you’d love to run against. 4. It’s largely going to be about what happens in those races in the 35%-65% range. (Yeah, I know: _duuuuuuuh_.) But the Senate’s not out of reach yet: they could all break the same way. ---
**Author:** ![Fear\_Itself](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/fear_itself/32/19637_2.png) [@Fear\_Itself](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Fear_Itself)\ **Post date:** [October 21, 2018, 3:36pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2018-us-midterm-elections/801125/193 "2018-10-21T15:36:47Z")
I saw a statistic somewhere that in wave years, 70-80% of the toss-up races go to one party. ---
**Author:** ![Tamerlane](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/tamerlane/32/7602_2.png) [@Tamerlane](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Tamerlane)\ **Post date:** [October 21, 2018, 5:05pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2018-us-midterm-elections/801125/194 "2018-10-21T17:05:49Z")
> [@RTFirefly](#): > > I thought Harry Enten was at 538. Did CNN hire him away? Yep, back in February. ---
**Author:** ![septimus](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/septimus/32/410_2.png) [@septimus](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/septimus)\ **Post date:** [October 21, 2018, 9:44pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2018-us-midterm-elections/801125/195 "2018-10-21T21:44:30Z")
I’ve taken the liberty of color-coding according to the Wikipedia pundit’s consensus. Light blue is “Lean D”; Pink is “Lean R”; Gray is “Tossup.” IIUC correctly, D’s need eight of these to get the magic 51, e.g. all the Tossups plus a single pink like Heitkamp or Beto. Is that correct? > [@RTFirefly](#): > > I thought I’d post the probabilities that 538 gives in races where the odds of the Dem winning are between 10% and 90%, with seats currently GOP-held in italics: > > **Manchin (D-WV) 88% > Tester (D-MT) 86% > Donnelly (D-IN) 85% > Nelson (D-FL) 64% > _Sinema (D-AZ) 63%_ > McCaskill (D-MO) 61% > _Rosen (D-NV) 45%_ > Heitkamp (D-ND) 35% > _Bredesen (D-TN) 25% > Beto (D-TX) 21% > Espy (D-MS) 17%_** > > Thoughts: > > 1. Heitkamp isn’t dead yet. 35% isn’t great, but it’s a long way from dead. > 2. Espy has a 17% chance of winning in MS?! I realize they’ve got two Senate seats up for grabs, and that made a sort of opening, but still: I figured he’d be down in the single digits. > 3. I’m surprised that Sinema’s doing better than Rosen. Dean Heller seems like a real asshole, the sort of opponent you’d love to run against. > 4. It’s largely going to be about what happens in those races in the 35%-65% range. (Yeah, I know: _duuuuuuuh_.) But the Senate’s not out of reach yet: they could all break the same way. ---
**Author:** ![RTFirefly](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/c77e96/32.png) [@RTFirefly](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RTFirefly)\ **Post date:** [October 21, 2018, 9:56pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2018-us-midterm-elections/801125/196 "2018-10-21T21:56:00Z")
> [@septimus](#): > > I’ve taken the liberty of color-coding according to the Wikipedia pundit’s consensus. Light blue is “Lean D”; Pink is “Lean R”; Gray is “Tossup.” > > IIUC correctly, D’s need eight of these to get the magic 51, e.g. all the Tossups plus a single pink like Heitkamp or Beto. Is that correct? That is correct. All 6 of the incumbent D’s on that list need to win, plus 2 pickups. Or 6-n incumbents need to win, and 2+n pickups, for some non-negative n. (Yes, I’m a math geek. This is how we talk. :)) ---
**Author:** ![Chronos](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/chronos/32/134_2.png) [@Chronos](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Chronos)\ **Post date:** [October 21, 2018, 10:59pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2018-us-midterm-elections/801125/197 "2018-10-21T22:59:53Z")
Counting the number of seats isn’t the best metric, since they’re likely to be fairly strongly correlated. If one outperforms their polling, it’s likely that others will, too. ---
**Author:** ![Bijou\_Drains](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/bijou_drains/32/2814_2.png) [@Bijou\_Drains](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Bijou_Drains)\ **Post date:** [October 22, 2018, 1:11pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2018-us-midterm-elections/801125/198 "2018-10-22T13:11:53Z")
Krugman says Trump will try to claim fraud if Dems win the house. Not a shocking prediction > **[Paul Krugman Warns Trump Is Poised To Disregard Democratic House Victory](https://www.huffpost.com/entry/paul-krugman-says-trump-might-deny-dem-house-majority-victory_n_5bcd3df9e4b0d38b58799307)** > > The president's complaints about "voter fraud" could be used to deny legitimacy of Democratic victory in the midterm election. ---
**Author:** ![RTFirefly](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/c77e96/32.png) [@RTFirefly](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RTFirefly)\ **Post date:** [October 22, 2018, 1:35pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2018-us-midterm-elections/801125/199 "2018-10-22T13:35:38Z")
> [@Chronos](#): > > Counting the number of seats isn’t the best metric, since they’re likely to be fairly strongly correlated. If one outperforms their polling, it’s likely that others will, too. I don’t know how much reliance I’d put on that. Different states in different parts of the country with very different demographics, and all that. I’m sure changes between here and Election Day will be positively correlated, absent a major scandal involving a particular candidate. But how strongly? Hard to say. ---
**Author:** ![Elendil\_s\_Heir](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/7cd45c/32.png) [@Elendil\_s\_Heir](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Elendil_s_Heir)\ **Post date:** [October 22, 2018, 1:59pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2018-us-midterm-elections/801125/200 "2018-10-22T13:59:21Z")
Trump is polling slightly ahead of where Obama was at this point before his first midterms: [MSN](http://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/trump-approval-jumps-ahead-of-obama%e2%80%99s-midterm-approval-rating/ar-BBOGtGj?ocid=ientp) ---
**Author:** ![Happy\_Lendervedder](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/happy_lendervedder/32/8488_2.png) [@Happy\_Lendervedder](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Happy_Lendervedder)\ **Post date:** [October 22, 2018, 2:28pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2018-us-midterm-elections/801125/201 "2018-10-22T14:28:54Z")
> [@Elendil\_s\_Heir](#): > > Trump is polling slightly ahead of where Obama was at this point before his first midterms: [MSN](http://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/trump-approval-jumps-ahead-of-obama%e2%80%99s-midterm-approval-rating/ar-BBOGtGj?ocid=ientp) Not according to the average of all polls. At both [538](https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/trump-approval-ratings/?ex_cid=rrpromo)& [RCP](https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/other/president_trump_job_approval-6179.html). One (or even a couple) polls doesn’t make the guy more popular than Obama. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2018-us-midterm-elections/801125.md?page=9) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2018-us-midterm-elections/801125.md?page=11)