# 2018 US midterm elections **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Created:** [November 9, 2017, 5:09pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2018-us-midterm-elections/801125 "2017-11-09T17:09:22Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 11
**Author:** ![Elendil\_s\_Heir](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/7cd45c/32.png) [@Elendil\_s\_Heir](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Elendil_s_Heir)\ **Post date:** [October 22, 2018, 6:39pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2018-us-midterm-elections/801125/202 "2018-10-22T18:39:18Z")
Color me surprised! Trump is already positioning himself not to be blamed for a Blue Wave: [MSN](http://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/trump-distances-himself-from-a-potential-gop-thumping/ar-BBOIlpE?ocid=ientp) ---
**Author:** ![Gyrate](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/gyrate/32/3588_2.png) [@Gyrate](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Gyrate)\ **Post date:** [October 23, 2018, 8:25am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2018-us-midterm-elections/801125/203 "2018-10-23T08:25:45Z")
Republicans are peppering Florida voters (of which I am one) with claims that Andrew Gillum will implement a state income tax. Andrew Gillum is not going to implement a state income tax. Andrew Gillum **can’t** implement a state income tax, and both he and the Republicans know it. It would require a public vote on a state constitutional amendment, and there isn’t one on the ballot. And Gillum has not at any point expressed any interest in a state income tax. But that hasn’t stopped the GOP from lying their asses off to frighten the old people. Again. ---
**Author:** ![Budget\_Player\_Cadet](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/budget_player_cadet/32/205_2.png) [@Budget\_Player\_Cadet](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Budget_Player_Cadet)\ **Post date:** [October 23, 2018, 10:26am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2018-us-midterm-elections/801125/204 "2018-10-23T10:26:46Z")
> [@Gyrate](#): > > Republicans are peppering Florida voters (of which I am one) with claims that Andrew Gillum will implement a state income tax. Andrew Gillum is not going to implement a state income tax. Andrew Gillum **can’t** implement a state income tax, and both he and the Republicans know it. It would require a public vote on a state constitutional amendment, and there isn’t one on the ballot. And Gillum has not at any point expressed any interest in a state income tax. > > But that hasn’t stopped the GOP from lying their asses off to frighten the old people. Again. Yeah, it turns out that when your agenda is fundamentally unpopular and dictated by plutocrats, all you have left is the option to lie your ass off and hope nobody notices. ---
**Author:** ![Lord\_Feldon](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lord_feldon/32/341_2.png) [@Lord\_Feldon](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Lord_Feldon)\ **Post date:** [October 23, 2018, 10:32am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2018-us-midterm-elections/801125/205 "2018-10-23T10:32:32Z")
> [@Gyrate](#): > > Republicans are peppering Florida voters (of which I am one) with claims that Andrew Gillum will implement a state income tax. Andrew Gillum is not going to implement a state income tax. Andrew Gillum **can’t** implement a state income tax, and both he and the Republicans know it. It would require a public vote on a state constitutional amendment, and there isn’t one on the ballot. And Gillum has not at any point expressed any interest in a state income tax. > > But that hasn’t stopped the GOP from lying their asses off to frighten the old people. Again. Good heavens, if that were true and able to be true, it would be so _very_ terrible that someone was trying to fix the [3rd most regressive](https://itep.org/whopays/) state tax system in the country. ---
**Author:** ![RTFirefly](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/c77e96/32.png) [@RTFirefly](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RTFirefly)\ **Post date:** [October 23, 2018, 2:49pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2018-us-midterm-elections/801125/206 "2018-10-23T14:49:11Z")
Interesting divergence between forecasters: The [Cook Political Report](https://www.cookpolitical.com/analysis/house/house-overview/ten-rating-changes-democrats-enthusiasm-edge-narrows-and-fundraising): > [@](#): > > We continue to believe anywhere from a 20 to 40 seat Democratic gain is possible, but right now the likeliest outcome is a Democratic gain of between 25 and 35 seats. [538](https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2018-midterm-election-forecast/house/), OTOH, currently is showing an average gain of 40 seats, with their 80% confidence interval running from a 20-seat gain to a 61-seat gain. ---
**Author:** ![Gyrate](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/gyrate/32/3588_2.png) [@Gyrate](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Gyrate)\ **Post date:** [October 24, 2018, 10:44am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2018-us-midterm-elections/801125/207 "2018-10-24T10:44:30Z")
> [@Lord\_Feldon](#): > > Good heavens, if that were true and able to be true, it would be so _very_ terrible that someone was trying to fix the [3rd most regressive](https://itep.org/whopays/) state tax system in the country. Perhaps, but not remotely the point. ---
**Author:** ![asahi](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/asahi/32/8693_2.png) [@asahi](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/asahi)\ **Post date:** [October 24, 2018, 2:26pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2018-us-midterm-elections/801125/208 "2018-10-24T14:26:15Z")
I doubt there’s going to be a blue wave. I think the House barely goes to the Democrats, which is a turn of events that might end up helping Donald Trump’s presidency more than hurting it. If I were Donald Trump, I could see a Democratic House as a threat but also as a huge opportunity. Trump’s gladiatorial style needs an antagonist, and having House Democrats overplay their new political hand in the House - when they control virtually nothing else - would play right into Trump’s hands. He can still confirm new judges and other appointees up and down the government. He can put pressure on the House to pass budgets that he wants, and he can use the bully pulpit to jab a weak House majority that might very well end up fighting with each other over whether to impeach Trump. ---
**Author:** ![Tamerlane](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/tamerlane/32/7602_2.png) [@Tamerlane](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Tamerlane)\ **Post date:** [October 24, 2018, 4:09pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2018-us-midterm-elections/801125/209 "2018-10-24T16:09:03Z")
> [@asahi](#): > > I doubt there’s going to be a blue wave. I think the House barely goes to the Democrats, How are you defining a ‘blue wave’? ---
**Author:** ![Pleonast](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/pleonast/32/1183_2.png) [@Pleonast](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Pleonast)\ **Post date:** [October 24, 2018, 5:16pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2018-us-midterm-elections/801125/210 "2018-10-24T17:16:34Z")
> [@asahi](#): > > I doubt there’s going to be a blue wave. Please quantify. ---
**Author:** ![asahi](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/asahi/32/8693_2.png) [@asahi](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/asahi)\ **Post date:** [October 25, 2018, 5:25am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2018-us-midterm-elections/801125/211 "2018-10-25T05:25:23Z")
Not something that’s easy to define statistically, but IMO, a “blue wave” isn’t just control of the House, but also the Senate and governors’ races. It’s not clear at present that we can achieve this. ---
**Author:** ![Tamerlane](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/tamerlane/32/7602_2.png) [@Tamerlane](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Tamerlane)\ **Post date:** [October 25, 2018, 7:24am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2018-us-midterm-elections/801125/212 "2018-10-25T07:24:12Z")
> [@asahi](#): > > Not something that’s easy to define statistically, but IMO, a “blue wave” isn’t just control of the House, but also the Senate and governors’ races. It’s not clear at present that we can achieve this. It’s extremely likely the DP cannot and never could, especially not defending this many Senate seats this year. Winning the Senate would be a huge victory. Personally if the DP were to break even in the Senate, _I’d still consider that a solid victory_. More likely they end up down a seat or two, but under the circumstances that = not all that bad. Personally I wouldn’t cry into my cheerios over that( quite likely )kind of result, though I’m sure many would. But you have to be realistic. I think your definition is far too rigid under the circumstances. If that’s the only result you’ll settle for, I’d argue you are almost guaranteed to feed that pessimism of yours ;). Average midterm House seat loss for a popular president( over 50% approval )is purportedly 14. Average loss for an unpopular president( under 50% approval, i.e. Trump )is 37. If the Dems get more than ~40 seats, I think a blue wave claim is warranted. Taking the House at all( 23 seats or more )is a moderate win. Failure to win the House despite modest gains equals a moderate defeat. Lose seats and it is a catastrophic defeat. ---
**Author:** ![CaptMurdock](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/captmurdock/32/11736_2.png) [@CaptMurdock](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/CaptMurdock)\ **Post date:** [October 25, 2018, 3:56pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2018-us-midterm-elections/801125/213 "2018-10-25T15:56:10Z")
Hoo boy… [Kellyanne Conway, counselor to President Donald Trump, was accused of violating federal ethics laws again—this time as it relates to the upcoming midterm elections.](https://www.newsweek.com/kellyanne-conway-investigation-federal-law-hatch-act-1184524?utm_campaign=NewsweekFacebookSF&utm_medium=Social&utm_source=Facebook&fbclid=IwAR2LjkW61fUidESsXPvgw95BRdOSbUlpeJCcrwHpy8thAWBtkRGXY34f-IA) :smack: ---
**Author:** ![VinylTurnip](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/v/b2d939/32.png) [@VinylTurnip](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/VinylTurnip)\ **Post date:** [October 25, 2018, 4:26pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2018-us-midterm-elections/801125/214 "2018-10-25T16:26:32Z")
> [@asahi](#): > > Not something that’s easy to define statistically, but IMO, a “blue wave” isn’t just control of the House, but also the Senate and governors’ races. It’s not clear at present that we can achieve this. Aw, what happened to that famous **asahi** optimism? ---
**Author:** ![iiandyiiii](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/iiandyiiii/32/7924_2.png) [@iiandyiiii](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/iiandyiiii)\ **Post date:** [November 1, 2018, 1:08pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2018-us-midterm-elections/801125/215 "2018-11-01T13:08:44Z")
Pilot Chesley “Sully” Sullenberger, who saved 155 lives during the “Miracle on the Hudson”: > **[Opinion | We saved 155 lives on the Hudson. Now let’s vote for leaders who’ll...](https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/we-saved-155-lives-on-the-hudson-now-lets-vote-for-leaders-wholl-protect-us-all/2018/10/29/554fd0e6-d87c-11e8-a10f-b51546b10756_story.html?utm_term=.28c0850e86d8)** > > Just like the “Miracle on the Hudson,” Election Day will require rather important decision-making. > [@](#): > > Today, tragically, too many people in power are projecting the worst. Many are cowardly, complicit enablers, acting against the interests of the United States, our allies and democracy; encouraging extremists at home and emboldening our adversaries abroad; and threatening the livability of our planet. Many do not respect the offices they hold; they lack — or disregard — a basic knowledge of history, science and leadership; and they act impulsively, worsening a toxic political environment. > … > For the first 85 percent of my adult life, I was a registered Republican. But I have always voted as an American. And this critical Election Day, I will do so by voting for leaders committed to rebuilding our common values and not pandering to our basest impulses. I don’t recall him ever being so overtly political. Good for him for speaking out at such a crucial time. ---
**Author:** ![BobLibDem](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/boblibdem/32/3149_2.png) [@BobLibDem](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BobLibDem)\ **Post date:** [November 1, 2018, 1:15pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2018-us-midterm-elections/801125/216 "2018-11-01T13:15:25Z")
The blue tsunami will be in 2020, when the Republicans have to defend all the seats gained in 2014 thanks to all their anti-ACA anti-Obama lies. Since Democrats vote in presidential years, not only will we maintain the House, Dems are sure to win the Senate and White House. Unless of course Hillary decides to run again. ---
**Author:** ![Bijou\_Drains](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/bijou_drains/32/2814_2.png) [@Bijou\_Drains](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Bijou_Drains)\ **Post date:** [November 1, 2018, 3:41pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2018-us-midterm-elections/801125/217 "2018-11-01T15:41:32Z")
Trump has his own Willie Horton ad [Trump shocks with racist new ad days before midterms | CNN Politics](https://www.cnn.com/2018/10/31/politics/donald-trump-immigration-paul-ryan-midterms/index.html) surprised it took this long for that to roll out ---
**Author:** ![JohnT](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/johnt/32/15048_2.png) [@JohnT](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/JohnT)\ **Post date:** [November 2, 2018, 8:23pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2018-us-midterm-elections/801125/218 "2018-11-02T20:23:55Z")
Michael Cohen is running around town using his final days of freedom saying Trump told him that black people were “too dumb” to vote for Trump. > ---
**Author:** ![Velocity](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/velocity/32/18006_2.png) [@Velocity](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Velocity)\ **Post date:** [November 2, 2018, 8:30pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2018-us-midterm-elections/801125/219 "2018-11-02T20:30:05Z")
> [@BobLibDem](#): > > The blue tsunami will be in 2020, when the Republicans have to defend all the seats gained in 2014 thanks to all their anti-ACA anti-Obama lies. Since Democrats vote in presidential years, not only will we maintain the House, Dems are sure to win the Senate and White House. Unless of course Hillary decides to run again. You have made a great deal of “Democrats are guaranteed to win” posts in the past that didn’t come true. ---
**Author:** ![septimus](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/septimus/32/410_2.png) [@septimus](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/septimus)\ **Post date:** [November 3, 2018, 4:20am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2018-us-midterm-elections/801125/220 "2018-11-03T04:20:12Z")
> [@](#): > > Reuters polling found that in October only 25 percent of people aged 18 to 29 said they were certain to vote in the election, the lowest percentage of any age bracket. An election of truly historic significance, in which Truth and Justice are literally pitted versus Greed, Hatred and Ignorance, and 75% of young people don’t feel a need to vote. Wonderful. This is no Greek tragedy we’re living through, nor a black comedy, nor even a sad sentimental story of unrequited love. It is a new genre: a nauseating fusion of slapstick and horror. ---
**Author:** ![DSeid](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dseid/32/20194_2.png) [@DSeid](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DSeid)\ **Post date:** [November 3, 2018, 5:10pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2018-us-midterm-elections/801125/221 "2018-11-03T17:10:57Z")
> [@septimus](#): > > An election of truly historic significance, in which Truth and Justice are literally pitted versus Greed, Hatred and Ignorance, and 75% of young people don’t feel a need to vote. Wonderful. > > This is no Greek tragedy we’re living through, nor a black comedy, nor even a sad sentimental story of unrequited love. It is a new genre: a nauseating fusion of slapstick and horror. If 25% of that age group comes out for a midterm it would be an improvement over [past performance](http://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2018/06/14/younger-generations-make-up-a-majority-of-the-electorate-but-may-not-be-a-majority-of-voters-this-november/) anyway. Previous midterms saw Millennials 18 to 24 voting at only 20% and 25 to 29 at 26%. It has been a very sad fact that younger voters are not just voting less than older voters, but they are voting less than previous generations did when they were that age. There is though good reason to think that younger voters will be more coming into their own this time. I’m not finding that Reuters poll but [Harvard’s Institute of Politics (IOP)](http://iop.harvard.edu/spring-2018-national-youth-poll) has come up with very different numbers, 40% as will “definitely vote” in the midterms. > [@](#): > > The Institute of Politics (IOP) at Harvard Kennedy School today released the results of their biannual survey of 18- to 29- year olds showing that young Americans are significantly more likely to vote in the upcoming midterm elections compared to 2010 and 2014. Overall, 40 percent report that they will “definitely vote” in the midterms Now note, it is not all Democratic youth; young GOP voters are more engaged too. [Data from Tufts](http://civicyouth.org/circle-poll-youth-engagement-in-the-2018-election/), looking only at the younger 18 to 24 year old cohort of that group which usually votes the least, on average 20%, is consistent with that big increase, showing 34% as being “extremely likely” to vote. > [@](#): > > Our poll finds that 34% of young people (ages 18-24) are “extremely likely” to vote in the midterms. Interestingly, 18 to 21-year-olds—this election’s newest voters, who were not yet eligible to vote in 2016—reported that they are extremely likely to cast ballots at a similar rate. That would represent a significant shift, since these ‘youngest’ young people have historically had lower voter turnout than ‘older’ youth. By comparison, our 2016 pre-election poll found that 40% of 18 to 24-year-olds were “extremely likely” to vote, and subsequent post-election analysis found that number to have been generally predictive of turnout as calculated by other sources. If that holds true again this year, it points toward the potential for a substantial increase in youth turnout. I personally doubt it will hit that 40% mark. But given the hints seen in high younger voter early voting participation and in particular [many young first time voters](https://www.cnn.com/2018/11/02/politics/early-vote-swamps-2014-and-first-timers/index.html), it would not shock me. And not being significantly more than midterms past _would_. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2018-us-midterm-elections/801125.md?page=10) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2018-us-midterm-elections/801125.md?page=12)