# 2018 US midterm elections **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Created:** [November 9, 2017, 5:09pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2018-us-midterm-elections/801125 "2017-11-09T17:09:22Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 3
**Author:** ![Crotalus](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/crotalus/32/41_2.png) [@Crotalus](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Crotalus)\ **Post date:** [January 31, 2018, 5:33pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2018-us-midterm-elections/801125/41 "2018-01-31T17:33:09Z")
Trey Gowdy(R:SC) has announced that he [will not run for re-election this year.](https://www.politico.com/story/2018/01/31/gowdy-wont-seek-reelection-380231?lo=ap_b1) ---
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [February 3, 2018, 11:37am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2018-us-midterm-elections/801125/42 "2018-02-03T11:37:58Z")
> [@Elendil\_s\_Heir](#): > > Things keep looking good for Dems to take the House, but as for the Senate, still not so much: [https://www.cnn.com/2018/01/30/politics/2018-state-of-play-analysis/index.html](https://www.cnn.com/2018/01/30/politics/2018-state-of-play-analysis/index.html) House is degrading for them as well, with their generic ballot lead down to +6, which is probably not quite enough to take back the House. The Democrats are just picking the wrong battles right now. ---
**Author:** ![Steve\_MB](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/steve_mb/32/5339_2.png) [@Steve\_MB](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Steve_MB)\ **Post date:** [February 6, 2018, 12:11am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2018-us-midterm-elections/801125/43 "2018-02-06T00:11:26Z")
If the current #TrumpSlump becomes an ongoing thing, the GOP is in even worse trouble than we thought. :eek: šŸ˜ƒ ---
**Author:** ![HurricaneDitka](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/h/96bed5/32.png) [@HurricaneDitka](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/HurricaneDitka)\ **Post date:** [February 6, 2018, 12:20am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2018-us-midterm-elections/801125/44 "2018-02-06T00:20:35Z")
> [@Elendil\_s\_Heir](#): > > Things keep looking good for Dems to take the House, but as for the Senate, still not so much: [https://www.cnn.com/2018/01/30/politics/2018-state-of-play-analysis/index.html](https://www.cnn.com/2018/01/30/politics/2018-state-of-play-analysis/index.html) Iā€™m really confused how you read that article and concluded ā€œThings keep looking good for Dems to take the Houseā€. CNN rates 176 seats as Solid Republican, 25 as likely Republican, and 21 as Lean Republican. That alone is good enough for a majority even if the Dems managed to win every single one of the tossup seats. According to your cite, things are NOT looking good for Dems to take the House. ---
**Author:** ![HurricaneDitka](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/h/96bed5/32.png) [@HurricaneDitka](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/HurricaneDitka)\ **Post date:** [February 6, 2018, 12:21am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2018-us-midterm-elections/801125/45 "2018-02-06T00:21:53Z")
> [@Steve\_MB](#): > > If the current #TrumpSlump becomes an ongoing thingā€¦ What is the ā€œ#TrumpSlumpā€ in your eyes? ---
**Author:** ![Elendil\_s\_Heir](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/7cd45c/32.png) [@Elendil\_s\_Heir](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Elendil_s_Heir)\ **Post date:** [February 6, 2018, 2:16pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2018-us-midterm-elections/801125/46 "2018-02-06T14:16:53Z")
Penna. redistricting, SCOTUS and the midterms: [https://www.cnn.com/2018/02/05/politics/pennsylvania-redistricting-ruling/index.html](https://www.cnn.com/2018/02/05/politics/pennsylvania-redistricting-ruling/index.html) ---
**Author:** ![Crane](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/crane/32/3495_2.png) [@Crane](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Crane)\ **Post date:** [February 7, 2018, 4:24pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2018-us-midterm-elections/801125/47 "2018-02-07T16:24:34Z")
What effect might a Grand Military Parade have on the election if is held the weekend before voting day with lots of hype during the run up to the midterms? ---
**Author:** ![OldGuy](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/o/3bc359/32.png) [@OldGuy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/OldGuy)\ **Post date:** [February 7, 2018, 6:11pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2018-us-midterm-elections/801125/48 "2018-02-07T18:11:12Z")
> [@Crane](#): > > What effect might a Grand Military Parade have on the election if is held the weekend before voting day with lots of hype during the run up to the midterms? If it were seen as pre-North-Korea-attack posturing, it could seriously hurt Republicans. If it were seen as ā€œMaking America Great Againā€ it might help them. ---
**Author:** ![Elendil\_s\_Heir](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/7cd45c/32.png) [@Elendil\_s\_Heir](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Elendil_s_Heir)\ **Post date:** [February 7, 2018, 7:11pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2018-us-midterm-elections/801125/49 "2018-02-07T19:11:29Z")
I think the plan is for it to be held on Independence Day, but of course that could change. ---
**Author:** ![Elendil\_s\_Heir](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/7cd45c/32.png) [@Elendil\_s\_Heir](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Elendil_s_Heir)\ **Post date:** [February 8, 2018, 2:12pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2018-us-midterm-elections/801125/50 "2018-02-08T14:12:21Z")
Fundraising update in House races: [https://www.cnn.com/2018/02/07/politics/house-key-race-ratings-changes/index.html](https://www.cnn.com/2018/02/07/politics/house-key-race-ratings-changes/index.html) ---
**Author:** ![Happy\_Lendervedder](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/happy_lendervedder/32/8488_2.png) [@Happy\_Lendervedder](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Happy_Lendervedder)\ **Post date:** [February 8, 2018, 3:16pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2018-us-midterm-elections/801125/51 "2018-02-08T15:16:16Z")
> [@Elendil\_s\_Heir](#): > > Fundraising update in House races: [https://www.cnn.com/2018/02/07/politics/house-key-race-ratings-changes/index.html](https://www.cnn.com/2018/02/07/politics/house-key-race-ratings-changes/index.html) Looking at that map, itā€™s still gonna be a tight squeeze for Dems to win the House. Even if they win all of the blue dots, and all of the yellow toss-ups, theyā€™d still fall short. Theyā€™d need to take 20% (4) of the ā€œLean Republicanā€ seats to take back the gavel. Not impossible, but not anywhere near a slam dunk. That being said, Iā€™m fired up to donate to and volunteer for the Democrat challenging my congressman, who has served this ā€œSolid Republicanā€ district since 2011. But more importantly, there is serious organizing within the county party and local Indivisible group around the Dem challenger right now too. So if thereā€™s this level of activity and excitement surrounding a candidate who is a reeeeeeeeeaaaaaal longshot to win, I can only hope thereā€™s even more stuff happening in the ā€œLean Republicanā€ and "Likely Republican"districts. If so, then things might get good in November. ---
**Author:** ![Happy\_Lendervedder](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/happy_lendervedder/32/8488_2.png) [@Happy\_Lendervedder](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Happy_Lendervedder)\ **Post date:** [February 8, 2018, 3:51pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2018-us-midterm-elections/801125/52 "2018-02-08T15:51:24Z")
I also think a lot depends on the economy going into the fall. If things are humming, the Dems \*could \*still take the House, but it would be harder. And Iā€™d actually bet on Republicans keeping the House if the economy seems to be as good as itā€™s been for the past year or so. But if thereā€™s even a \*perception \*of an economy thatā€™s tanking-- just a whiff of negativity in the news-- youā€™re going to see several ā€œLean Republicanā€ seats easily go Dem. Many people might be looking for any reason to vote against this unpopular party and its president, but if the economy seems to be going fine, itā€™ll be harder for them to actually do it (in districts that typically lean red). A shaky economy gives them a reason and more confidence to vote Dem. However, going beyond just perceptions of a shaky economy, if the stock market continues to go down, youā€™re going to see the blue bloods who only supported Trump for financial reasons (but think heā€™s a dumbass schmuck) flip or stay home, and thatā€™s when Dems could start picking off those sweet, sweet ā€œLikely Republicanā€ seats. Hatred for Trump goes a long way with firing up the base, but I think to flip seats from ā€œlean redā€ and ā€œlikey red,ā€ itā€™s going to come down to the economy (or at least the perception of it). ---
**Author:** ![Lantern](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/l/d26b3c/32.png) [@Lantern](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Lantern)\ **Post date:** [February 10, 2018, 6:07pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2018-us-midterm-elections/801125/53 "2018-02-10T18:07:25Z")
Over the last few months I think the Republicans have marginally improved their position. 1)Trumpā€™s popularity is at 41% which is poor but not catastrophic. The generic ballot has also moved a few points towards the Republicans. 2)Whatever else you think about Trump, he is good at rallying his base and I suspect Republican turnout in November will be OK. 1. The Republicans delivered big for their donor class with their tax cut and I think that whatever money problems their candidates are facing right now, will fade away as the election comes closer. 4)The Democrats seem to have decided to focus mostly on rallying their base with issues like immigration and lack a strong economic message that will appeal to a wide swathe of voters. In a mid-term election, that strategy could work but only with a narrow margin . It will increase the vulnerability of their Senate candidates in red states. The Democrats also seem reluctant to nominate centrists in purple districts which will reduce their chances of re-taking the House. As usual, I think they are overestimating their position and underestimating how much they need voters beyond their base. There is still a long way to go and overall the Democrats are definitely in a stronger position. The Mueller investigation may deliver a bombshell and the economy could slow down. Trumpā€™s White House is still a garbage fire. The Democrats still have the time to fine-tune their strategy and recruit good candidates. Still, I am less confident than I was three months back that the Democrats will retake either chamber. Their basic problem is that itā€™s not enough to do well, they have to do well enough to overcome their structural disadvantages: the Senate map and gerrymandered House seats. The Democrats have an energized base but I think they need more than that. ---
**Author:** ![Johnny\_Ace](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/j/6bbea6/32.png) [@Johnny\_Ace](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Johnny_Ace)\ **Post date:** [February 10, 2018, 9:06pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2018-us-midterm-elections/801125/54 "2018-02-10T21:06:04Z")
> [@Lantern](#): > > Over the last few months I think the Republicans have marginally improved their position. > > 1)Trumpā€™s popularity is at 41% which is poor but not catastrophic. The generic ballot has also moved a few points towards the Republicans. > > 2)Whatever else you think about Trump, he is good at rallying his base and I suspect Republican turnout in November will be OK. > > 1. The Republicans delivered big for their donor class with their tax cut and I think that whatever money problems their candidates are facing right now, will fade away as the election comes closer. > > 4)The Democrats seem to have decided to focus mostly on rallying their base with issues like immigration and lack a strong economic message that will appeal to a wide swathe of voters. In a mid-term election, that strategy could work but only with a narrow margin . It will increase the vulnerability of their Senate candidates in red states. The Democrats also seem reluctant to nominate centrists in purple districts which will reduce their chances of re-taking the House. As usual, I think they are overestimating their position and underestimating how much they need voters beyond their base. > > There is still a long way to go and overall the Democrats are definitely in a stronger position. The Mueller investigation may deliver a bombshell and the economy could slow down. Trumpā€™s White House is still a garbage fire. The Democrats still have the time to fine-tune their strategy and recruit good candidates. > > Still, I am less confident than I was three months back that the Democrats will retake either chamber. Their basic problem is that itā€™s not enough to do well, they have to do well enough to overcome their structural disadvantages: the Senate map and gerrymandered House seats. The Democrats have an energized base but I think they need more than that. I think you underestimate the power of Trump to motivate his opponents to vote. The economy isnā€™t going to figure that much into the midterms, because Congress really hasnā€™t done much aside from the tax cuts, and most everyone but Trumpā€™s base recognizes what a joke it really is. However, it will be a referendum on Trump personally anyway. Heā€™s such a shitheel that even independents will tend to vote against the Republican in local House races. I donā€™t think itā€™s going to be quite the wave that some people here expect, but I see the House going Dem by a small margin. ---
**Author:** ![HurricaneDitka](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/h/96bed5/32.png) [@HurricaneDitka](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/HurricaneDitka)\ **Post date:** [February 10, 2018, 11:08pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2018-us-midterm-elections/801125/55 "2018-02-10T23:08:44Z")
> [@Johnny\_Ace](#): > > ā€¦ The economy isnā€™t going to figure that much into the midterms, because Congress really hasnā€™t done much aside from the tax cuts, and most everyone but Trumpā€™s base recognizes what a joke it really isā€¦ From [WaPo](https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/the-fix/wp/2018/02/01/the-gops-big-tax-cut-gamble-appears-to-be-paying-dividends/): > [@](#): > > A month ago Republicans passed what was, according to some measures, the most unpopular bill in decades: their tax plan. > > Today, itā€™s looking more and more as if that was a risk well worth taking. > > A day after President Trump played up the tax cuts in his State of the Union address, a Monmouth poll showed a huge swing in favor of the bill. Although 26 percent of Americans approved of the package in mid-December, as lawmakers were putting the final touches on it, support in the latest poll rose to 44 percent. For a bill that sometimes polled with twice as many opponents as supporters, itā€™s now on level terms, with just as many supporters as opponents (44 percent). ---
**Author:** ![Johnny\_Ace](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/j/6bbea6/32.png) [@Johnny\_Ace](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Johnny_Ace)\ **Post date:** [February 11, 2018, 12:42am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2018-us-midterm-elections/801125/56 "2018-02-11T00:42:24Z")
> [@HurricaneDitka](#): > > From [WaPo](https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/the-fix/wp/2018/02/01/the-gops-big-tax-cut-gamble-appears-to-be-paying-dividends/): Some notes about that study: that poll is quite possibly an outlier. As the WaPo story states, thereā€™s been no poll within less than 10% of it for the last two weeks. In the RCP Poll of Polls on the generic ballot, Monmouth is a huge outlier, along with the Q poll. RCP has it at Dems +6.7, not anywhere close to Dems +2. Iā€™d also like to see the party breakdown for the respondents on each question. They donā€™t even state the party breakdown of respondents! All kinds of things I see are weird there. See, I follow polls too. And I know something about how to read beyond the numbers. ---
**Author:** ![septimus](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/septimus/32/410_2.png) [@septimus](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/septimus)\ **Post date:** [February 11, 2018, 2:03pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2018-us-midterm-elections/801125/57 "2018-02-11T14:03:00Z")
The GOP will probably hold the Senate with 50, 51 or 52 Senators. The Democrats should be able to take the House ā€” there are many flippable seats in California, New Jersey, etc. Itā€™s up to the Democrats really: Stick to a simple message about priorities ā€¦ Or let social justice warriorism run amok and turn moderate Repub voters back to Trump. The current odds at Betfair. Totals do not add to 100% due to vigorishHouse R 2.2 45.5% D 1.57 63.7% Senate D 2.37 42.2% R 1.53 65.4% (this includes the 19% chance of 50 seats exactly) > [@ElvisL1ves](#): > > **Just so you know, the constant stream of contempt and insults from the progressive purity ponies toward the functioning mainstream of the party is a great way to repeat the election of Trump and undermine the hope of all of civilized America.** > > Or you can keep massaging your resentments and blaming everyone but yourself for not having every wish catered to. Itā€™s your choice, yes, but with consequences far beyond yourselves. > > _Capisce_? Iā€™ve taken the liberty of highlighting an important message in Elvisā€™ post. When your grandkid asks ā€œWhat did you do in the war against Trumpism, Daddy?ā€ what will you answer? ---
**Author:** ![Elendil\_s\_Heir](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/7cd45c/32.png) [@Elendil\_s\_Heir](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Elendil_s_Heir)\ **Post date:** [February 20, 2018, 2:24pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2018-us-midterm-elections/801125/58 "2018-02-20T14:24:30Z")
The Penna. Supremes approve a new Congressional district map: [https://www.cnn.com/2018/02/19/politics/pennsylvania-new-congressional-maps/index.html](https://www.cnn.com/2018/02/19/politics/pennsylvania-new-congressional-maps/index.html) ---
**Author:** ![Elendil\_s\_Heir](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/7cd45c/32.png) [@Elendil\_s\_Heir](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Elendil_s_Heir)\ **Post date:** [March 6, 2018, 1:47am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2018-us-midterm-elections/801125/59 "2018-03-06T01:47:53Z")
Good news for Dems on the statehouse front so far: [Democrats are sweeping statehouse seats, and it's making the GOP nervous](https://www.aol.com/article/news/2018/03/05/democrats-are-sweeping-statehouse-seats-and-its-making-the-gop-nervous/23377784/) ---
**Author:** ![Elendil\_s\_Heir](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/7cd45c/32.png) [@Elendil\_s\_Heir](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Elendil_s_Heir)\ **Post date:** [April 9, 2018, 2:46pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2018-us-midterm-elections/801125/60 "2018-04-09T14:46:23Z")
A poll suggests older, educated white voters are shifting away from Trumpā€™s GOP: [Poll: Older, educated white voters shift away from Trump's Republican party](https://www.aol.com/article/news/2018/04/09/poll-older-educated-white-voters-shift-away-from-trumps-republican-party/23406545/) [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2018-us-midterm-elections/801125.md?page=2) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2018-us-midterm-elections/801125.md?page=4)