# 2018 US midterm elections **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Created:** [November 9, 2017, 5:09pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2018-us-midterm-elections/801125 "2017-11-09T17:09:22Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 4
**Author:** ![galen\_ubal](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/galen_ubal/32/4440_2.png) [@galen\_ubal](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/galen_ubal)\ **Post date:** [April 11, 2018, 2:30am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2018-us-midterm-elections/801125/61 "2018-04-11T02:30:23Z")
Another data point. In a Florida State Senate election, [he Democratic candidate won as](https://www.ourcampaigns.com/RaceDetail.html?RaceID=838190)usual. What’s notable is that her opponent had been a Trumpist, and she won by an enormous margin, 75%-25%. In 2016, that area went for Clinton 61%-31%, so there’s been a 25% gain. [Here’s a tracker from Daily Kos,](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1C2MVeM2K7WgqmJw5RCQbWyTo2u73CX1pI8zw_G-7BJo/edit#gid=2144047916) comparing all the races since the presidential to the 2016 (and 2012) presidential results. [Story from The Hill.](http://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/382592-dem-defeats-trump-delegate-in-florida-state-senate-special-election?rnd=1523409515) So, it looks like expecting a 20% + swing against any Republican candidate can very well be expected. The anger/enthusiasm of the Democratic voters doesn’t appear to be lessening, and the Republicans aren’t showing much enthusiasm. I’m expecting the House to go Democratic in November, and quite probably the Senate as well, if only barely. ---
**Author:** ![Aspenglow](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/aspenglow/32/76_2.png) [@Aspenglow](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Aspenglow)\ **Post date:** [April 11, 2018, 3:27am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2018-us-midterm-elections/801125/62 "2018-04-11T03:27:32Z")
**galen ubal** , yes. The numbers have held steady in virtually every single special election in 2018, no matter where it has been held. Even McConnell is expressing doubt about whether Republicans can hold the Senate in 2018. I agree with your predictions and hope we are both right. ---
**Author:** ![Pleonast](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/pleonast/32/1183_2.png) [@Pleonast](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Pleonast)\ **Post date:** [April 11, 2018, 4:05pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2018-us-midterm-elections/801125/63 "2018-04-11T16:05:30Z")
> [@galen\_ubal](#): > > I’m expecting the House to go Democratic in November, and quite probably the Senate as well, if only barely. Care to quantify that over in our [election contest thread](https://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showthread.php?t=847482)? ---
**Author:** ![septimus](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/septimus/32/410_2.png) [@septimus](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/septimus)\ **Post date:** [April 16, 2018, 10:41pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2018-us-midterm-elections/801125/64 "2018-04-16T22:41:54Z")
The [_Washington Post_ shows “Poll: Democrats’ advantage in midterm election support is shrinking”](https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/poll-democrats-advantage-in-midterm-elections-has-been-cut-more-than-half/2018/04/15/5450d99e-3f6e-11e8-8d53-eba0ed2371cc_story.html?noredirect=on&utm_term=.068330326fec). > [@](#): > > The survey shows the GOP making a more pronounced shift among white voters, who now prefer Republicans by a 14-point margin over Democrats, up from five points in January. **Republicans lead by 60 percent to 31 percent among white voters without college degrees** , slightly larger than an 18-point GOP advantage three months ago. _Why?_ is the question. The article hints that this reversion to the GOP may result from a backlash against recent anti-gun activity. ---
**Author:** ![Aspenglow](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/aspenglow/32/76_2.png) [@Aspenglow](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Aspenglow)\ **Post date:** [April 16, 2018, 11:14pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2018-us-midterm-elections/801125/65 "2018-04-16T23:14:11Z")
> [@septimus](#): > > The [_Washington Post_ shows “Poll: Democrats’ advantage in midterm election support is shrinking”](https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/poll-democrats-advantage-in-midterm-elections-has-been-cut-more-than-half/2018/04/15/5450d99e-3f6e-11e8-8d53-eba0ed2371cc_story.html?noredirect=on&utm_term=.068330326fec). > > _Why?_ is the question. The article hints that this reversion to the GOP may result from a backlash against recent anti-gun activity. I think I can pinpoint [the exact moment](http://thehill.com/blogs/blog-briefing-room/news/380406-former-supreme-court-justice-repeal-the-second-amendment). (The Hill) ---
**Author:** ![septimus](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/septimus/32/410_2.png) [@septimus](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/septimus)\ **Post date:** [April 16, 2018, 11:37pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2018-us-midterm-elections/801125/66 "2018-04-16T23:37:49Z")
> [@septimus](#): > > … > _**Republicans [are preferred] by 60 percent to 31 percent among white voters without college degrees**_ > … Aren’t numbers like this shocking and dismaying? Dopers celebrated the recent election of Doug Jones as a demonstration that even Alabamans can come to their senses. _ **But in fact, whites without a college degree preferred by a 77 to 22 margin to vote for the child molester rather than a Democrat.** _ Even white college graduates voted for Moore 57 to 40. (And credible pundits tell us that if Trump runs again in 2020 he will most probably be re-elected.) I wish I could be optimistic, but … ---
**Author:** ![Elendil\_s\_Heir](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/7cd45c/32.png) [@Elendil\_s\_Heir](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Elendil_s_Heir)\ **Post date:** [May 13, 2018, 2:23pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2018-us-midterm-elections/801125/67 "2018-05-13T14:23:37Z")
Beto O’Rourke told PACs to stay out of his US Senate race in Texas. They aren’t listening: [https://www.cnn.com/2018/05/12/politics/beto-orourke-texas-senate-pac-spending/index.html](https://www.cnn.com/2018/05/12/politics/beto-orourke-texas-senate-pac-spending/index.html) ---
**Author:** ![HurricaneDitka](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/h/96bed5/32.png) [@HurricaneDitka](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/HurricaneDitka)\ **Post date:** [May 13, 2018, 3:00pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2018-us-midterm-elections/801125/68 "2018-05-13T15:00:11Z")
> [@septimus](#): > > … The article hints that this reversion to the GOP may result from a backlash against recent anti-gun activity. I certainly hope so. I can’t decide if I’d rather have the Dems keep making the mistake of pushing gun control and consequently continue to lose elections, or figure out that it’s a loser of an issue and join us on the right side of the RKBA issue, even if it means they may win some additional elections. ---
**Author:** ![Elendil\_s\_Heir](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/7cd45c/32.png) [@Elendil\_s\_Heir](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Elendil_s_Heir)\ **Post date:** [May 27, 2018, 3:50pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2018-us-midterm-elections/801125/69 "2018-05-27T15:50:50Z")
Mitch McConnell is sounding more upbeat: [http://thehill.com/homenews/senate/389458-mcconnell-sees-ohio-in-play-as-confidence-about-midterms-grows](http://thehill.com/homenews/senate/389458-mcconnell-sees-ohio-in-play-as-confidence-about-midterms-grows) ---
**Author:** ![Bijou\_Drains](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/bijou_drains/32/2814_2.png) [@Bijou\_Drains](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Bijou_Drains)\ **Post date:** [June 13, 2018, 11:26am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2018-us-midterm-elections/801125/70 "2018-06-13T11:26:58Z")
SC congressman and former governor Mark Sanford lost in the GOP primary , he had been anti Trump on some issues. You may remember his affair with the Argentine GF when he was governor. He got divorced and was engaged to the GF but they broke up a few years ago. ---
**Author:** ![Elendil\_s\_Heir](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/7cd45c/32.png) [@Elendil\_s\_Heir](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Elendil_s_Heir)\ **Post date:** [June 13, 2018, 4:08pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2018-us-midterm-elections/801125/71 "2018-06-13T16:08:27Z")
Here’s CNN Politics on the latest midterm primaries: [https://www.cnn.com/2018/06/13/politics/six-things-primary-night-tuesday/index.html](https://www.cnn.com/2018/06/13/politics/six-things-primary-night-tuesday/index.html) ---
**Author:** ![Steve\_MB](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/steve_mb/32/5339_2.png) [@Steve\_MB](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Steve_MB)\ **Post date:** [June 13, 2018, 4:25pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2018-us-midterm-elections/801125/72 "2018-06-13T16:25:23Z")
Hardcore Republican Corey Stewart wins VA Senate primary; [spokesman attempts damage control](https://twitter.com/brianjameswalsh/status/1006712082132357125): > [@Brian Walsh](#): > > Can we just skip past the part where the media focuses on all the idiotic, racist & embarrassing things Corey Stewart will say & do the next five months and just acknowledge Tim Kaine won his re-election tonight. No. Nay. Nope. Not. Nix. Negatory. What part of this pattern eludes you? ---
**Author:** ![BobLibDem](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/boblibdem/32/3149_2.png) [@BobLibDem](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BobLibDem)\ **Post date:** [June 14, 2018, 4:11pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2018-us-midterm-elections/801125/73 "2018-06-14T16:11:55Z")
The driving force in the midterms is not on any ballot but will decide every race. When guys like Sanford lose a primary for not being sufficiently obsequious to Donald, we see that the Republicans are a personality cult. I’ve heard Republicans report that the ONLY thing people want to know at their town halls is this: “Do you support DJT”? That’s it. No other issue matters to Republican voters. So every Republican in every race is going to live or die by their voters’ opinion of Donald. Right wing districts will stay red, but other districts will be a bit bluer. Republicans in purple districts where rabid cultists got nominated are going to have their asses handed to them. ---
**Author:** ![Silver\_lining](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/aca169/32.png) [@Silver\_lining](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Silver_lining)\ **Post date:** [June 14, 2018, 7:07pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2018-us-midterm-elections/801125/74 "2018-06-14T19:07:28Z")
The Republican message will be simple If you want your taxes to eventually go up, and more government regulations which will make it harder on business, vote Democratic. With a never-ending assault from the left media just about over on Russia because which has no proof of collusion, and Trump several Democrats defending their seats in states that Trump won ( Florida and West Virginia ) I think the Republicans will maintain control of the Senate. The House? The Republicans hold a 42 seat lead. That is a lot. Six months can seem like 2 years in Politics. Outside of being the party of NO, I don’t see what the Democrats are running on. ---
**Author:** ![Chronos](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/chronos/32/134_2.png) [@Chronos](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Chronos)\ **Post date:** [June 14, 2018, 10:52pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2018-us-midterm-elections/801125/75 "2018-06-14T22:52:36Z")
> [@](#): > > With a never-ending assault from the left media just about over on Russia because which has no proof of collusion, and Trump several Democrats defending their seats in states that Trump won ( Florida and West Virginia ) What to happened this sentence? ---
**Author:** ![scr4](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/59ef9b/32.png) [@scr4](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/scr4)\ **Post date:** [June 14, 2018, 11:04pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2018-us-midterm-elections/801125/76 "2018-06-14T23:04:09Z")
> [@Silver\_lining](#): > > The House? The Republicans hold a 42 seat lead. That is a lot. But _every single_ House seat is up for election every time. So it doesn’t really matter what the lad is now. Incumbents do have a slight advantage, but there are 37 Republican House members who aren’t even running for reelection (vs 18 Democrats). You’re probably right about the Senate though. To gain a majority, the Democrats need to defend all 26 Democratic Senate seats that are up for election, _and_ flip 2 of the 9 Republican Senate seats. That won’t be easy, to put it mildly. ---
**Author:** ![DSeid](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dseid/32/20194_2.png) [@DSeid](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DSeid)\ **Post date:** [June 16, 2018, 1:40am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2018-us-midterm-elections/801125/77 "2018-06-16T01:40:42Z")
> [@Silver\_lining](#): > > The Republican message will be simple > > If you want your taxes to eventually go up, and more government regulations which will make it harder on business, vote Democratic. … You are very likely correct that that will be the pitch. It’s really what they have to sell. The so called tax reform and the looser oversight on industry. So far though the public is [not buying it.](https://www.publicpolicypolling.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/06/PPP_Release_National_61318.pdf) > [@](#): > > PPP’s newest national poll finds that six months after the passage of tax reform, it’s still not really catching on with voters. Only 31% support it to 38% who are opposed, with 30% not sure one way or the other. > > The core problem for Republicans with tax reform is that voters continue to be skeptical it’s actually going to help them on a personal level. Just 30% say they think it will help their family’s finances, to 33% who think it will hurt, and 25% who don’t think it will have an impact either way. 51% think it will mostly benefit the rich to 30% for the middle class, and just 7% for the poor. > > \ > > “Republicans thought tax reform would be the key to keeping 2018 from being a strongly Democratic year,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling. “But so far voters just aren’t warming up to it.” Interesting in that poll also is this > [@](#): > > Democrats continue to have an advantage for this fall’s Congressional elections, leading the generic ballot 46‐40. That lead grows to 52‐43 among voters who say they’re ‘very excited’ to turn out this year … Interesting because so far the tracker seems to be overwhelmingly still made up of RVs, with few if any LV screens being applied. _If_ that “very excited” question is something that is at all indicative of the LV screen impact then one would reasonably expect a three point boost when the LV screens become more common. ---
**Author:** ![The\_Tooth](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/c67d28/32.png) [@The\_Tooth](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/The_Tooth)\ **Post date:** [June 16, 2018, 3:33am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2018-us-midterm-elections/801125/78 "2018-06-16T03:33:46Z")
> [@Chronos](#): > > What to happened this sentence? I’ve never seen words have a nervous breakdown before. ---
**Author:** ![Steve\_MB](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/steve_mb/32/5339_2.png) [@Steve\_MB](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Steve_MB)\ **Post date:** [June 16, 2018, 4:15pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2018-us-midterm-elections/801125/79 "2018-06-16T16:15:47Z")
[Interesting…](https://twitter.com/LarrySabato/status/1006956239878807553) > [@Larry Sabato](#): > > Longtime major GOP donors and campaign workers in VA have told me last night and today that with Corey Stewart’s nomination, they are “done” with the party. Last straw, they say. Hard to know how widespread this is, but it’s not good news for Republicans. ---
**Author:** ![Guest-starring\_Id](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/guest-starring_id/32/21736_2.png) [@Guest-starring\_Id](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Guest-starring_Id)\ **Post date:** [June 16, 2018, 6:36pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2018-us-midterm-elections/801125/80 "2018-06-16T18:36:14Z")
Still a minor(?) player in the grand scheme of things, I’d really like to see Amy Klobuchar’s profile get a real octane boost - she’s one of the rare few who can actually get shit done across the aisle - certainly a dying (and important) art in Washington. What are her negatives other than not being as highly positioned as Sanders or Warren? Is it only that? Surely that can be eventually surmounted, then? [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2018-us-midterm-elections/801125.md?page=3) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2018-us-midterm-elections/801125.md?page=5)