# 2018 US midterm elections **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Created:** [November 9, 2017, 5:09pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2018-us-midterm-elections/801125 "2017-11-09T17:09:22Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 6
**Author:** ![Silver\_lining](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/aca169/32.png) [@Silver\_lining](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Silver_lining)\ **Post date:** [July 16, 2018, 5:40pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2018-us-midterm-elections/801125/101 "2018-07-16T17:40:52Z")
> [@Sinaptics](#): > > It says right in the article that it’s a reuters/ipsos poll. It’s literally in the second sentence: > > Link to Reuters article where they discuss methodology: > > [https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-election-healthcare-poll/exclusive-as-elections-near-many-older-educated-white-voters-shift-away-from-trumps-party-idUSKBN1HG1I6](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-election-healthcare-poll/exclusive-as-elections-near-many-older-educated-white-voters-shift-away-from-trumps-party-idUSKBN1HG1I6) Okay Thanks. Okay a Reuters poll like this one: Reuters Poll: Young White Americans Flee Democrat Party in Droves Since Trump’s Election > **[Reuters Poll: Young White Americans Flee Democrat Party in Droves Since...](https://canadafreepress.com/article/reuters-poll-young-white-americans-flee-democrat-party-in-droves-since-trum)** > > Reuters Poll: Young White Americans Flee Democrat Party in Droves Since Trump’s Election ---
**Author:** ![Rick\_Kitchen](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/rick_kitchen/32/522_2.png) [@Rick\_Kitchen](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Rick_Kitchen)\ **Post date:** [July 16, 2018, 5:57pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2018-us-midterm-elections/801125/102 "2018-07-16T17:57:57Z")
> [@Silver\_lining](#): > > Okay Thanks. Okay a Reuters poll like this one: > > Reuters Poll: Young White Americans Flee Democrat Party in Droves Since Trump’s Election > > [https://canadafreepress.com/article/reuters-poll-young-white-americans-flee-democrat-party-in-droves-since-trum](https://canadafreepress.com/article/reuters-poll-young-white-americans-flee-democrat-party-in-droves-since-trum) “Democrat Party” shows their bias right there. ---
**Author:** ![JohnT](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/johnt/32/15048_2.png) [@JohnT](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/JohnT)\ **Post date:** [July 16, 2018, 7:03pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2018-us-midterm-elections/801125/103 "2018-07-16T19:03:35Z")
It’s a Breitbart article, Rick. ---
**Author:** ![septimus](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/septimus/32/410_2.png) [@septimus](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/septimus)\ **Post date:** [July 16, 2018, 7:17pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2018-us-midterm-elections/801125/104 "2018-07-16T19:17:39Z")
> [@Silver\_lining](#): > > Okay Thanks. Okay a Reuters poll like this one: > > Reuters Poll: Young White Americans Flee Democrat Party in Droves Since Trump’s Election > > [https://canadafreepress.com/article/reuters-poll-young-white-americans-flee-democrat-party-in-droves-since-trum](https://canadafreepress.com/article/reuters-poll-young-white-americans-flee-democrat-party-in-droves-since-trum) Just so those who don’t click the link also get to appreciate this joke: The link does NOT go to Reuters, it goes to Canada\_Free\_Press, a website that doesn’t even have a Wiki page and was founded by Judi McCloud, a right-winger fired from the Toronto _Sun_ for her peculiar views, e.g. calling ethnic parents who wanted heritage language instruction “as diabolical as any of the characters from the imaginative pen of Charles Dickens… a nasty lot indeed.” The “article,” once you get past the Are-You-a-Robot checker, consists of a total of three (3) sentences, followed by a clickable “_More_.” No, the _More_ doesn’t take you to Reuters; it takes you to … [are you sitting down?] … [Breitbart.Com](http://Breitbart.Com). :eek: Well played, **Silver lining**! ---
**Author:** ![JohnT](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/johnt/32/15048_2.png) [@JohnT](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/JohnT)\ **Post date:** [July 16, 2018, 7:33pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2018-us-midterm-elections/801125/105 "2018-07-16T19:33:12Z")
Well, it does say in the CFP article that this was from Brietbart, complete with BB logo… 😉 This is the part of the same late April poll that inspired the “Dems have lost their lead” thread in GD/Elections. What it doesn’t contain is information found in subsequent polls: > **[Reuters Polling Explorer](https://polling.reuters.com/)** > > Track American public opinion with the Reuters/Ipsos poll. ---
**Author:** ![Rick\_Kitchen](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/rick_kitchen/32/522_2.png) [@Rick\_Kitchen](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Rick_Kitchen)\ **Post date:** [July 16, 2018, 7:51pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2018-us-midterm-elections/801125/106 "2018-07-16T19:51:52Z")
> [@JohnT](#): > > It’s a Breitbart article, Rick. I din’t click on it, but the URL says Canada Free Press. ---
**Author:** ![BeepKillBeep](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/9e8a1a/32.png) [@BeepKillBeep](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BeepKillBeep)\ **Post date:** [July 16, 2018, 9:44pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2018-us-midterm-elections/801125/107 "2018-07-16T21:44:03Z")
> [@Silver\_lining](#): > > Okay Thanks. Okay a Reuters poll like this one: > > Reuters Poll: Young White Americans Flee Democrat Party in Droves Since Trump’s Election > > [https://canadafreepress.com/article/reuters-poll-young-white-americans-flee-democrat-party-in-droves-since-trum](https://canadafreepress.com/article/reuters-poll-young-white-americans-flee-democrat-party-in-droves-since-trum) Oh god, I’m dyin’! You’re too much. ---
**Author:** ![DSeid](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dseid/32/20194_2.png) [@DSeid](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DSeid)\ **Post date:** [July 17, 2018, 5:36am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2018-us-midterm-elections/801125/108 "2018-07-17T05:36:04Z")
For anyone who is actually interested -[here](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-election-millennials/exclusive-democrats-lose-ground-with-millennials-reuters-ipsos-poll-idUSKBN1I10YH) is the actual Reuters article on the polling. And indeed in January to March their panel showed fewer millennials expressing support for the D side in the midterm year of 2018 than stated such during peak Sanders excitement of the presidential cycle year of 2016. Breitbart skewed and spun the poll but they did not make it up whole cloth. Of course one also needs to square that with [Pew’s data](http://www.people-press.org/2018/03/01/1-generations-party-identification-midterm-voting-preferences-views-of-trump/) comparing midterm to midterm year (2014 to 2018). In particular how in 2014 it was 50 to 41 advantage D among millennials and in 2018 it is advantage 62 to 29, higher than ever in the past. They also found more millennials “looking forward” to midterms in that time period of 2018 than in the same time period of 2014. ---
**Author:** ![septimus](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/septimus/32/410_2.png) [@septimus](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/septimus)\ **Post date:** [July 17, 2018, 7:34am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2018-us-midterm-elections/801125/109 "2018-07-17T07:34:50Z")
> [@DSeid](#): > > For anyone who is actually interested -[here](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-election-millennials/exclusive-democrats-lose-ground-with-millennials-reuters-ipsos-poll-idUSKBN1I10YH) is the actual Reuters article on the polling… Breitbart skewed and spun the poll but they did not make it up whole cloth. I, for one, didn’t question the poll claim, nor the depressing direction of “millennial” cognition. I’ll bet a six-pack of cheap beer that the R’s have more political power in 2021 than the D’s have. The joke was that to access a Reuters poll (recall that Reuters derives from the work of Paul Julius Reuter who used homing pigeons and electric telegraphs in _ **1850** _ to provide the newest news) we were asked not to click to Reuters, but to a small Canadian crackpot site which immediately linked to Breitbart. I’m sincerely curious to learn how or why that poster concluded this was the best linkage but, regardless of his answer, that peculiar linkage serves as a pithy paradigm of what America is up against. ---
**Author:** ![DSeid](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dseid/32/20194_2.png) [@DSeid](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DSeid)\ **Post date:** [July 17, 2018, 11:39am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2018-us-midterm-elections/801125/110 "2018-07-17T11:39:08Z")
Fair that, although I very much do question drawing a depressing conclusion about the direction of the millennials based on one poll, inconsistent with other data, comparing preference on a generic ballot given during peak Sanders interest in a presidential primary season to an early midterm one. But I hope it does not offend too much to question your sincere curiosity. You _know_ the poster’s history and track record here. Looking for source material, even attributing let alone linking to “sources” has not been a _strong_ suit. ---
**Author:** ![septimus](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/septimus/32/410_2.png) [@septimus](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/septimus)\ **Post date:** [July 17, 2018, 12:03pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2018-us-midterm-elections/801125/111 "2018-07-17T12:03:00Z")
> [@DSeid](#): > > … But I hope it does not offend too much to question your sincere curiosity. > > You _know_ the poster’s history and track record here. Looking for source material, even attributing let alone linking to “sources” has not been a _strong_ suit. No offense taken, but my curiosity is quite sincere. Was this the link he came across (and if so, how?) and it just never occurred to him to read or link to a purer source? Or was his an attempt to enhance discussion of the poll result by linking to discussions that “added value”? Twice a year or so I read the headlines at [alternet.org](http://alternet.org) (not that I compare it to Beitbart or CanadianHarpie.rant), find some interesting articles, but then usually link to primary sources if I want to post at SDMB. Does **Mr. lining** have some particular reason for not following my example? ---
**Author:** ![DSeid](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dseid/32/20194_2.png) [@DSeid](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DSeid)\ **Post date:** [July 17, 2018, 11:17pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2018-us-midterm-elections/801125/112 "2018-07-17T23:17:18Z")
> [@septimus](#): > > No offense taken, but my curiosity is quite sincere. Was this the link he came across (and if so, how?) and it just never occurred to him to read or link to a purer source? Or was his an attempt to enhance discussion of the poll result by linking to discussions that “added value”? > > Twice a year or so I read the headlines at [alternet.org](http://alternet.org) (not that I compare it to Beitbart or CanadianHarpie.rant), find some interesting articles, but then usually link to primary sources if I want to post at SDMB. Does **Mr. lining** have some particular reason for not following my example? You _really_ aren’t just being rhetorical here? ---
**Author:** ![Snowboarder\_Bo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/snowboarder_bo/32/229_2.png) [@Snowboarder\_Bo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Snowboarder_Bo)\ **Post date:** [July 18, 2018, 2:29pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2018-us-midterm-elections/801125/113 "2018-07-18T14:29:28Z")
[James Comey urges voters to support Democratic candidates this fall](https://apnews.com/bfcfda1bb4464ed2bae6075867b0e919/Ex-FBI-chief-Comey-urges-voters-to-support-Democrats-in-fall): > [@](#): > > Comey says on Twitter that the “Republican Congress has proven incapable of fulfilling the Founders’ design that ‘Ambition must … counteract ambition.’” That refers to the need for Congress to provide checks and balances to presidential power. > > Comey writes: “All who believe in this country’s values must vote for Democrats this fall. … History has its eyes on us.” > > The former FBI director recently said he no longer considers himself a Republican. > > On Monday, after Trump’s press conference with Russian President Vladimir Putin, Comey tweeted, “This was the day an American president stood on foreign soil next to a murderous lying thug and refused to back his own country.” ---
**Author:** ![Elendil\_s\_Heir](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/7cd45c/32.png) [@Elendil\_s\_Heir](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Elendil_s_Heir)\ **Post date:** [July 18, 2018, 4:03pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2018-us-midterm-elections/801125/114 "2018-07-18T16:03:22Z")
Politico asks, is THIS the year Arizona turns blue? Hope so, but I’m not holding my breath: [Is THIS the Year Arizona Finally Turns Blue? - POLITICO Magazine](https://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2018/07/16/deciders-arizona-election-democrats-219008) ---
**Author:** ![Rick\_Kitchen](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/rick_kitchen/32/522_2.png) [@Rick\_Kitchen](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Rick_Kitchen)\ **Post date:** [July 18, 2018, 8:01pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2018-us-midterm-elections/801125/115 "2018-07-18T20:01:25Z")
_Sacramento Bee_ columnist Marcos Breton on why he does not support Dianne Feinstein, why the state Democratic party apparatchiks did not support her, and supporting my own feelings about why I haven’t voted for her since she voted to go to war in Iraq. > **[Dianne Feinstein is not who you think she is](https://www.sacbee.com/news/local/news-columns-blogs/marcos-breton/article215032775.html)** > > Dianne Feinstein never should have run for a fifth term in the U.S. Senate. An 85-year-old career politician, who would be 91 at the end of another full term, is treating the position she has held since 1992 as a lifetime appointment. ---
**Author:** ![Rick\_Kitchen](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/rick_kitchen/32/522_2.png) [@Rick\_Kitchen](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Rick_Kitchen)\ **Post date:** [July 19, 2018, 6:46am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2018-us-midterm-elections/801125/116 "2018-07-19T06:46:07Z")
The California Supreme Court has ruled that the proposition to divide the state into three violates the state constitution, and has unanimously ordered the proposition removed from the ballot. > **[Splitting up California: State Supreme Court takes initiative off ballot](https://www.sfchronicle.com/politics/article/Splitting-up-Calif-State-Supreme-Court-takes-13085880.php)** > > The state Supreme Court decided Wednesday that California will remain intact... ---
**Author:** ![Elendil\_s\_Heir](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/7cd45c/32.png) [@Elendil\_s\_Heir](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Elendil_s_Heir)\ **Post date:** [July 29, 2018, 6:30pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2018-us-midterm-elections/801125/117 "2018-07-29T18:30:24Z")
CNN on the latest midterm polling - not good news for the GOP: [https://www.cnn.com/2018/07/27/politics/nbc-marist-statewide-polls/index.html](https://www.cnn.com/2018/07/27/politics/nbc-marist-statewide-polls/index.html) ---
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [July 31, 2018, 10:16am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2018-us-midterm-elections/801125/118 "2018-07-31T10:16:34Z")
Democrats should win the House, but the Senate looks out of reach due to a horrible map and some weak incumbents. For me, the interesting part will be seeing if this is a “wave” or not. Wave elections, like those in 1994, 2006, 2010, and 2014, see the challenging party successfully defend all their incumbents and of course pick up a buttload of seats. In addition, the GOP margin in 2010 and 2014 was 6 points in the House popular vote. Obviously 6 points doesn’t get the Democrats as many seats as the GOP getting 6 points, but it would indicate how much the Democrats have gained. Successfully defending all their incumbents would also be a key sign. If the Democrats win the House but lose 3 or more incumbents in the Senate, that’s a sign that the revulsion might be as much anti-incumbent as anti-Trump, at least outside of blue states. I’d have to think that even if the Dems take the House, if it’s just a normal midterm gain and not a wave that would have to be very disappointing and a bad sign for 2020. ---
**Author:** ![Elendil\_s\_Heir](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/7cd45c/32.png) [@Elendil\_s\_Heir](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Elendil_s_Heir)\ **Post date:** [August 7, 2018, 1:43pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2018-us-midterm-elections/801125/119 "2018-08-07T13:43:38Z")
For all of Trump’s prejudiced idiocies, Latino voters still seem unmotivated: [Trump may not be enough to swing Latino turnout Democrats' way | CNN Politics](https://www.cnn.com/2018/08/07/politics/democrats-hispanics-midterm-elections-fault-lines/index.html) ---
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [August 7, 2018, 1:59pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2018-us-midterm-elections/801125/120 "2018-08-07T13:59:23Z")
Could just be that Hispanic voters aren’t really interested in “Hispanic” issues as a voting bloc. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2018-us-midterm-elections/801125.md?page=5) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2018-us-midterm-elections/801125.md?page=7)