It’s Labour’s voting system - block voting by unions and idealistic youngsters who love him. There’s plenty in the party who think he’s unelectable - most Labour MPs I suspect - but they’re currently shouted down.
I’m among the first to criticise the supposed accuracy of polling, but I’d be amazed if they haven’t managed to take this problem into account by now. As you say, it’s absolutely key. I assume the ones with decent methodology focus on marginal seats and extrapolate from there.
And this is one of the reasons - well, mainly the unions - why Labour are unlikely to get my vote any time soon.
To explain myself a little further - I’m fairly unusual among my friends and acquaintances in supporting Brexit, and generally leaning a bit more to the right than most of them. So my Facebook feed is generally a massive Lab/Lib/Remain echo chamber, with lots of posts advocating tactically voting for ABT (anyone but the Tories). Now, lately my views on Brexit have softened, inasmuch as while it remains my personal preference, I recognise (and always have) that this is a selfish view, and more importantly, there are bigger concerns that need dealing with. I’d even go so far as to say that while I would feel embarrassed and disappointed if we revoked Article 50, sometimes you just have to move on and accept that what was promised couldn’t be delivered. So I’ve based my voting decision on which local MP, party, and leader (in that order) are most likely to do a good job of running the country, IMHO.
That in itself is a problem, of course. Fundamentally I just can’t agree with the ABT philosophy - if you want me to vote for someone to unseat the Tories, they have to present a better alternative. And I really don’t think that is the current Labour party. I do actually agree that a lot of things in their manifesto are sensible, such as nationalising utilities and transport (free broadband, not so much). And the costings for these expansive policies in the manifesto seem more realistic than they have managed in the past. However, they rather blew that apart with their subsequent announcement of freezing State Pension increases and compensating the WASPI women, neither of which are a good use of public money in my view and are completely uncosted - they would be funded by extra borrowing. The bottom line is I think there is a high risk of current Labour policy wrecking our economy, which will ultimately leave everyone worse off, from top to bottom (well, not the very top, as they’re pretty well insulated from everything). And that’s before I’ve even started on Corbyn’s ‘leadership’ skills.
Equally, I won’t be voting Conservative, since they appear to be by far the least honest party in this campaign (and for the last few years, I guess) - I refuse to support their attempts to subvert democracy, even though I personally quite like our incumbent Tory MP and I feel he does a reasonable job for his constituents, which I think is extremely important. And Conservative policies are probably best aligned with me personally, but like I say, it seems to be time for a swing back to the left.
That leaves the Lib Dems, and while they have their flaws, they seem to be less than the other two. The most important reason they are getting my vote is their clear funding plans for the NHS, and that everyone will pay a little bit towards that in tax (currently I’m a long way off being affected by Labour’s proposed tax increases).
I should point out that I live in one of the safest Tory constituencies in the country, where the incumbent is unlikely to be unseated even if everyone opposed voted tactically, so I have the ‘luxury’ of being able to use my vote to send a message about which party’s policies I most support. I don’t view it as a wasted vote - if the Tory and Labour vote share in this constituency falls, it tells their respective central offices that they are getting things wrong and the Lib Dems are doing something right. Which is definitely worth voting for.
Not British, but if I were, I’d vote strategically ABT, unless I was in a safe constituency, in which case I’d vote Green or some other lefty third party, maybe SNP if I were in Scotland. My heart belongs to Labour, but I can’t support them as long as Corbyn continues to treat anti-Semitism in the Party with kid gloves.
Heh, now you know where I live! I reckon you’ve done miles better with your SNP candidate, if I’m guessing correctly. His farewell speech at the European Parliament was really good, really quite moving to be honest.
I don’t get a vote.
I was disenfranchised when I moved abroad because they lost the record of my right to vote. I’m a British citizen living abroad who has been registered to vote in the last 15 years, but they can’t find my registration. How they lost this, no-one can explain and I’ve exhausted all options (there were disappointingly few to begin with).
I have no proof that I registered to vote back in 2010, I just sent off a form. And then I voted.
So I’m extremely grateful for the opportunity to vote here! I get a vote! SMDB 1 - UK 0 
(Well UK like -3 at this point. Didn’t get to vote in the ref, or the election after that.)
Lib Dems it is. Phew. Thanks, feels good.
I think this is the thing about Corbyn I find most baffling - all he had to do was swiftly and publicly denounce prejudice in all its forms, and apologise for any mistakes his party has made in the past (those last three words being key, of course). By failing to do so he has made it way too easy for his detractors. I mean, maybe he didn’t personally feel the need to apologise - but apologising on behalf of others is kind of what being a party leader is all about. Personally, I don’t believe he is an anti-Semite (though I have very little evidence either way, I think he probably is anti-Israeli policy but I don’t think it’s fair to equate that with anti-Semitism unless proved otherwise). But it’s just one of many examples where he has failed spectacularly to show good leadership.
Then again, I also cannot comprehend why Johnson would grab that phone with the picture of the boy on the floor of the hospital. For all his faults, he is supposed to be quick-witted and intelligent. How hard could it have been to acknowledge the photo, state the obvious (that it looks appalling), and to the obvious follow-up point that it is his party’s policies that have essentially caused this, say that it wouldn’t be appropriate to comment on individual cases but obviously this is not the sort of thing we want to see, before trotting out some standard li[n]e about 40 new hospitals? It’s campaigning 101, surely?
I live in a safe Labour seat. I voted for Cameron and May, and for Boris Johnson for London mayor for that matter, but I don’t want to vote for Johnson for PM. The amount and scale of his lying has been much more apparent in the last few years. The Jennifer Arcuri scandal struck me as blatant corruption. And the hypocrisy of Johnson kicking senior Conservative Party members out of the party for voting against his Brexit plan, after he voted against May’s plan is shocking. There’s no way in Hell I’ll ever vote for Jeremy Corbyn and John MacDonnell. Their policies will bring the economy to its knees if they’re enacted. If I was in a constituency with a tight race, I’d probably hold my nose and vote Conservative. But since I’m not, I’m voting Liberal Democrat as the least bad choice.
My seat was held by the SNP in 2017 by about 300 votes from the Tories. I’ll be voting SNP.
Safe Tory seat held by a government minister.
Labour were second last time, but have picked a total non-entity as candidate, whose only stated policy position is on an issue that barely affects the constituency at all, and who the party have not bothered to back with any actual campaigning (literally not seen a single leaflet, poster, or sign - I only know who the candidate is because I looked her up on the net and even then there was virtually no information to be found).
The Lib Dems, who were a distant third last time, have made an effort, and their candidate has published positions on a wide range of issues, so I’ll be voting for her.
Reading between the lines, I’m guessing the Corbynite entryists to the local Labour Party have spent a great deal of effort purging the insufficiently sycophantic, only to discover that they’ve driven out the people who did all the actual campaigning last time.
That’s the one! Per the classic Chewin’ The Fat classification scheme he is Good Guy, not Wank.
Yeah, Scotland not being independent will suit Smith very well if he gets into Westminster. I’m not sure why you think Sturgeon will interpret your vote as being pro-independence; the SNP have won the last 5 elections under her and she continues to act like she doesn’t really want independence either.
With a Prime Minister being openly racist in order to appeal to the sort of people who not only watch the queen’s speech on Christmas Day but angrily stand to attention for it, I’m not sure why you feel the need to use patronising, othering cliche to characterise the progressive, inclusive, pro-EU independence movement.
Do you mean the people who supported the Iraq war?
If the SNP do well and pick up 8-10 Tory seats, there’s no doubt that Sturgeon will claim this as support for her party’s primary reason for existence. Even if only for purely cynical survival reasons, because the “Independence NOW!” faction in her party will need some red meat. Much as I personally would appreciate it, she couldn’t respond to that kind of success with a milquetoast “I respect that for many this was an anti-Tory vote and we will continue to work to convince people of the case for independence over the next few years” speech.
If we end up with a hung parliament and a bigger SNP holding some strong cards then she will be practically forced to demand the next IndyRef. A Tory majority alongside a stronger SNP also forces a “Scotland wants one thing, England another, we need Independence” response.
Much as I appreciate the notion that it’s all a grift and that calling for independence is far preferable to actually getting it, I don’t think it’s true. I do think that Sturgeon would rather not hold a referendum until she was sure of getting more than 55%, but I don’t think that’s a luxury she has.
Again, why such colourful language? In my opinion, Brexit is going to do actual harm to the people of Scotland, on top of the country being impoverished by years of unnecessary ideologically-driven austerity which came on top of the squandering of Scotland’s oil revenues (even if these had been shared with the rest of the UK, we’d be in a much better place now if they’d been invested the way Norway did).
The majority of Scots votes against all of this. There is no reason why Scotland can’t be a successful prosperous small member of EFTA or the EU like all of its neighbours, Ireland, Iceland, Norway, Sweden, Denmark or Finland - if you think that the Scottish economy is too fucked for it to be like those countries then you have to questions to answer on UK economic policy.
The longer we endure a situation where people like Rees-Mogg, Johnson, Gove and Cummings have more say on what happens in Scotland than Scottish voters do, the more irreparable damage will be done. So in my opinion, depicting the independence movement as being less rational and pragmatic than any of the alternatives is not justified.
I’ve already said that I’m going to vote for a party whose fundamental political aims I disagree with just to keep the Tories out. I’d have thought that pegged the number of lectures I need about how fucking awful Johnson and his party are at zero, but apparently not.
Edited to add - if you want a separate thread on Independence, start one and I’ll join it.
If you don’t want people with views different from yours to explain those views, don’t refer to them using patronising language that verges on xenophobia.
Hahahaha!
Xenophobia is it? In a minute, when the penny drops, will we move on to “self-hating”?
The SNP is not Scotland. It’s membership are not the totality of the people of Scotland. Criticising them is not synonymous with criticising the nation.
I hope you don’t get hay fever from those straw men.
Refusing to understand that many people in Scotland do not like being stereotyped with othering Braveheart cliches? Whatever, mate.