# 2020 Prez hopefuls... your take or your candidates **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Created:** [November 12, 2017, 7:52am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2020-prez-hopefuls-your-take-or-your-candidates/801413 "2017-11-12T07:52:45Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 8
**Author:** ![nelliebly](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/nelliebly/32/5422_2.png) [@nelliebly](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/nelliebly)\ **Post date:** [November 30, 2017, 8:11am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2020-prez-hopefuls-your-take-or-your-candidates/801413/141 "2017-11-30T08:11:16Z")
How on earth do we determine what’s likely to fly in 2020 when 2016 exploded so much of what we thought we knew about electability? Should we be looking at potential candidates who’d appeal to blue collar voters when those voters are still so loyal to Trump? Is someone who behaved inappropriately toward women unelectable? Those who are accused now are facing a lot of public condemnation; on the other hand, the guy who bragged about sexually assaulting women occupies the Oval Office (except on weekends, apparently). Did Trump really lower the standards for future presidents, or did he just lower the standards for Trump? Which cohort that voted for Trump is up for grabs? ---
**Author:** ![asahi](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/asahi/32/8693_2.png) [@asahi](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/asahi)\ **Post date:** [November 30, 2017, 1:12pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2020-prez-hopefuls-your-take-or-your-candidates/801413/142 "2017-11-30T13:12:58Z")
I sincerely hope that I turn out to be wrong to the point of ridicule on this one, but I am beginning to think that short of a massive economic collapse, Trump will win re-election in 2020. A major reason for my continued pessimism is my sense that Democrats and progressives broadly are just too divided, disorganized, and confused to put up effective resistance. I could be wrong, but it seems like there is a looming fight for the soul of the progressive cause and what it means to be a progressive. There are a lot of centrists like myself who have believed that we don’t need a revolution, that we can make things better with a return to a more progressive form of neo-liberalism. However, even before the election, there was obviously a strong voice of dissent, which advocated a more aggressive approach and insisted on things like a higher minimum wage, medicare for all, and a host of other progressive proposals that went beyond what a lot of center-left progressives were comfortable with. I’ve been among those who have felt that we just unity for the sake of unifying against Trump, but that may not be possible. In fact, I suspect that there’s a kind of Trump feedback loop happening within the leftist ranks. As Trump’s party becomes more and more outrageous and extreme, it makes it harder for progressives to take centrists seriously. There’s a growing animosity toward compromise on both sides. In the short-term, I think what this means is that there will be a lot of divisiveness. I think Republicans are in a better position to capitalize on these divisions. They have the economic power, and they have the political power in most places. Unfortunately, I think the only people who can stop the Republican march into the abyss are conservatives themselves. It will take a lot of conservatives to get to the point where they have no choice but to look around and see the carnage their votes have created. ---
**Author:** ![asahi](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/asahi/32/8693_2.png) [@asahi](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/asahi)\ **Post date:** [November 30, 2017, 1:48pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2020-prez-hopefuls-your-take-or-your-candidates/801413/143 "2017-11-30T13:48:56Z")
> [@Jacquernagy](#): > > Personally I don’t think there are bad people, just bad ideas. The voting population is malleable, highly susceptible to the ever changing winds of public opinion, and furthermore I think people with bad ideas, even racist ones, can change their minds if the right messages reach them - or at the very least, be compelled to put aside racial bias to focus on more immediate economic concerns. Propaganda isn’t inherently bad or good. It’s an effective tool. But right now it’s primarily being used to promote bad ideas. > > The Democrats don’t seem to collectively be very good at propaganda right now. They need to change that if they’re going to challenge Trump, because I think a second term is quite possible. To understand what’s happening in a country, you have to look at its culture and character over time. America’s a culture of tough-minded, overcome-the-odds people - people who traveled across dangerous seas to get here, and crossed a dangerous continental divide to settle territory and create a nation from one sea to another. It takes a culture of grit and creativity to accomplish the building of a nation like America. It also took violence against and exploitation of other people, much of which was race-based and justified on religion. So America is the land of redemption and the embodiment of the human spirit to overcome all odds on one hand, but it’s also violently anti-egalitarian on the other. And that last trait has nearly ripped this country apart more than once. The era of our greatest prosperity, I would submit, was made possible by a generation of people who had shared experiences and embraced the idea of a more equitable society. Few people escaped the Great Depression. Few people were untouched by World War Two. I don’t think America is, nor should it ever be, a largely collectivist society. But the post-1945 America proved that capitalism works best when the benefits of it are shared by all. Unfortunately, that generation has pretty much passed on. We’re left with a society that doesn’t have nearly as much in common with each other. No shared hardship. No collective sense of responsibility. Consequently, there’s just less understanding of the value that institutions like higher education, social assistance, retirement and healthcare benefits provide. Our society has seen progressive devaluation of collectivism, with some speaking of it as though it were some sort of peril. That’s why even though I didn’t vote for Bernie Sanders and even though I didn’t care for some of the Bernie or Bust voters, it was indeed refreshing to see that there might be a change taking place. A new generation with newer ideas and the ability to pose questions about what our society ought to look like. I just hope that the current fascist wave isn’t successful in destroying that. ---
**Author:** ![CHealy7](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/c/3ab097/32.png) [@CHealy7](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/CHealy7)\ **Post date:** [November 30, 2017, 9:34pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2020-prez-hopefuls-your-take-or-your-candidates/801413/144 "2017-11-30T21:34:29Z")
Anyone agree that a popular Democratic-leaning personality like Bruce Springsteen would be an excellent VP pick? ---
**Author:** ![TimeWinder](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/bcef8e/32.png) [@TimeWinder](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/TimeWinder)\ **Post date:** [November 30, 2017, 9:44pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2020-prez-hopefuls-your-take-or-your-candidates/801413/145 "2017-11-30T21:44:38Z")
> [@asahi](#): > > As Trump’s party becomes more and more outrageous and extreme, it makes it harder for progressives to take centrists seriously. There’s a growing animosity toward compromise on both sides. Partly because it’s not clear there’s any such thing as a centrist any more. Trump and the GOP have moved so far right that any “centrists” are now in the “progressive snowflake” camp by comparison. ---
**Author:** ![nelliebly](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/nelliebly/32/5422_2.png) [@nelliebly](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/nelliebly)\ **Post date:** [November 30, 2017, 11:13pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2020-prez-hopefuls-your-take-or-your-candidates/801413/146 "2017-11-30T23:13:30Z")
> [@asahi](#): > > We’re left with a society that doesn’t have nearly as much in common with each other. No shared hardship. No collective sense of responsibility. Excellent post. I might add that we did see this for a time after the 9/11 attacks. The Depression and WWII didn’t happen in eras where we Americans had a lot in common; to the contrary, there was plenty of dissent. What we had during the Big D, WWII, and 9/11 was a shared sense of a common threat. Unfortunately, a large segment of the population sees our biggest threat as the rest of the population. If the Dems can nominate a charismatic person, are there enough voters who hate or are uneasy enough about what Trump and Gang have done to this country that they’d abandon ship? There’s still a lot of pent-up rage toward Trump to tap. ---
**Author:** ![Thing\_Fish](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/ecb155/32.png) [@Thing\_Fish](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Thing_Fish)\ **Post date:** [November 30, 2017, 11:43pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2020-prez-hopefuls-your-take-or-your-candidates/801413/147 "2017-11-30T23:43:04Z")
**asahi** , I am much more optimistic than you in the short term. There is a real fissure between progressives and moderates in the Democratic Party, which could conceivably split the Party to the advantage of the Right at some point in the future. But that won’t happen as long as Trump or someone like him is the face of the GOP. At this moment, I’m not sure where you’re seeing all this “animosity toward compromise” and “divisiveness”. Sure, you can find people who are still pissed off about the 2016 primary if you look for them (some on this very board, in fact!). But at least in public, Democratic leaders are singing in sweet harmony. The recent offyear elections showed Democrats of all stripes winning big; I’m not aware of any evidence that progressives weren’t turning out to support moderate candidates, or vice versa. Things could change radically between now and 2018, let alone 2020, but right now all the signs are pointing towards big Democratic gains in both of those years. ---
**Author:** ![Lamoral](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lamoral/32/16078_2.png) [@Lamoral](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Lamoral)\ **Post date:** [December 1, 2017, 12:54am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2020-prez-hopefuls-your-take-or-your-candidates/801413/148 "2017-12-01T00:54:17Z")
> [@CHealy7](#): > > Anyone agree that a popular Democratic-leaning personality like Bruce Springsteen would be an excellent VP pick? Anyone who agrees with this should be kept as far away from the Democrats’ decision-making process as possible, even if it means launching them into outer space. ---
**Author:** ![asahi](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/asahi/32/8693_2.png) [@asahi](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/asahi)\ **Post date:** [December 1, 2017, 3:07am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2020-prez-hopefuls-your-take-or-your-candidates/801413/149 "2017-12-01T03:07:14Z")
> [@Jacquernagy](#): > > Anyone who agrees with this should be kept as far away from the Democrats’ decision-making process as possible, even if it means launching them into outer space. Thank you for making my beer shoot up into my nose. The thought of someone strapping Bruce Springsteen into a rocket chair like a rocket test monkey and shooting him into space…cracked me up. ---
**Author:** ![asahi](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/asahi/32/8693_2.png) [@asahi](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/asahi)\ **Post date:** [December 1, 2017, 3:15am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2020-prez-hopefuls-your-take-or-your-candidates/801413/150 "2017-12-01T03:15:03Z")
> [@Thing\_Fish](#): > > **asahi** , I am much more optimistic than you in the short term. There is a real fissure between progressives and moderates in the Democratic Party, which could conceivably split the Party to the advantage of the Right at some point in the future. But that won’t happen as long as Trump or someone like him is the face of the GOP. > > At this moment, I’m not sure where you’re seeing all this “animosity toward compromise” and “divisiveness”. Sure, you can find people who are still pissed off about the 2016 primary if you look for them (some on this very board, in fact!). But at least in public, Democratic leaders are singing in sweet harmony. The recent offyear elections showed Democrats of all stripes winning big; I’m not aware of any evidence that progressives weren’t turning out to support moderate candidates, or vice versa. > > Things could change radically between now and 2018, let alone 2020, but right now all the signs are pointing towards big Democratic gains in both of those years. I’m pessimistic because I think we’re entering a phase of disorientation. By that I mean, we’re really and truly entering the beginning stages of democracy’s death throes, when people on the one hand see assaults on democracy but still operate on the assumption, the hope that enough reasonable people will rush to democracy’s rescue. Information is a critical component of a functioning democracy. We’re being bombarded almost daily with misinformation. A lot of people over the past year have recognized that we’re consuming false information and we’ve expressed outrage on a frequent basis. At the same time, the perpetual sense of outrage leaves us both confused and, to a degree, desensitized. We’re confused in the sense that we ask ourselves, “Did I see what I think I just saw? Did I read what I think I just read? Did he really effing say that?!” And of course he did. But then we accept it and move on. But more than that, we’re not just talking about statements or retweets; we’re talking about real, executive and legislative actions. Trump really did execute a Muslim ban. Trump really is deporting illegal immigrants. Trump really is trying to destroy Obamacare inexplicably. Trump really is using federal office to enrich himself. Trump, a Republican president, really is blocking a corporate media merger because he just doesn’t like what some people on CNN say about him. Trump really is trying to use the FCC to concentrate corporate power and also threatening to take away broadcasting licenses to punish another critical network. Any of these would have been perceived as an outrage by a former president; they’re a daily occurrence in this White House. And we’re getting used to it. And we’re going to get used to much, much worse I’m afraid. Tell me why I’m wrong. As I’ve said before: it doesn’t take a majority of people to destroy a democracy; it only requires that a majority of people do nothing to stop its destruction. May I remind you that Hitler’s Nazi party came to power by winning only 37% of the vote in the early 1930s. And not everyone voted. When you look and see that Donald Trump’s approval rating is at about 38%, what does this tell you? ---
**Author:** ![tim314](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/tim314/32/3468_2.png) [@tim314](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/tim314)\ **Post date:** [December 1, 2017, 3:32am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2020-prez-hopefuls-your-take-or-your-candidates/801413/151 "2017-12-01T03:32:41Z")
> [@asahi](#): > > I sincerely hope that I turn out to be wrong to the point of ridicule on this one, but I am beginning to think that short of a massive economic collapse, Trump will win re-election in 2020. [I predicted he’d win re-election in February](http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showthread.php?t=818461), and I’m standing by that even though I desperately hope to be wrong. Part of this is defensive pessimism on my part – I’d rather be pleasantly surprised than disappointed. But beyond that, I just don’t think his awfulness will flip many of the votes of people who voted for him last time. He was already demonstrably awful _before_ the 2016 election, and people still found plenty of reasons to vote for him. Some people will vote for him even if they don’t like him, because they figure having a Republican in office is good for their agenda. Some people will vote for him because he delivered on some promises they care about, like appointing a conservative to the Supreme Court. Some people will vote for him for tribal reasons, because he represents “their side” in our polarized country. Some people will vote for him because they’re racists, and they like that he retweets false racist claims and demonizes Muslims and Mexicans. And even though those folks combined don’t add up to a majority of Americans, they may once again add up to an _electoral_ majority, because of the dopey way our electoral process works. The only way to beat him is if liberals are way more motivated to turn out than they were in 2016. And maybe the 2018 election is some reason to be optimistic, but I don’t know… I guess I just have a hard time believing there are that many people who think it’s obvious Trump is awful now, and that preventing him from occupying the Oval Office come 2021 is of the utmost necessity, but for whom this wasn’t _already_ obvious back in 2016. I’m not very comfortable banking on there being so many people on my side of the political spectrum who were such complete idiots that it took them this long to realize Trump’s awfulness. Don’t get me wrong, there are idiots of all political stripes, but I don’t feel great confidence that they’ll come through to save the day. ---
**Author:** ![HurricaneDitka](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/h/96bed5/32.png) [@HurricaneDitka](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/HurricaneDitka)\ **Post date:** [December 1, 2017, 3:43am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2020-prez-hopefuls-your-take-or-your-candidates/801413/152 "2017-12-01T03:43:22Z")
> [@asahi](#): > > … Trump really is deporting illegal immigrants. … Any of these would have been perceived as an outrage by a former president… Nope. ---
**Author:** ![Miller](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/miller/32/481_2.png) [@Miller](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Miller)\ **Post date:** [December 1, 2017, 3:52am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2020-prez-hopefuls-your-take-or-your-candidates/801413/153 "2017-12-01T03:52:54Z")
> [@HurricaneDitka](#): > > Nope. I take it, then, that you have no objection to how she otherwise characterized Trump’s actions? ---
**Author:** ![HurricaneDitka](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/h/96bed5/32.png) [@HurricaneDitka](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/HurricaneDitka)\ **Post date:** [December 1, 2017, 4:13am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2020-prez-hopefuls-your-take-or-your-candidates/801413/154 "2017-12-01T04:13:17Z")
> [@Miller](#): > > I take it, then, that you have no objection to how she otherwise characterized Trump’s actions? No. That was just the most-clearly-fallacious point, so I started there. I’ve got objections to some of the others too, but recognize that they’re a bit more debatable and less clear-cut. On a side note: is asahi a she? This whole time I’ve been under the impression asahi was male. ---
**Author:** ![Happy\_Lendervedder](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/happy_lendervedder/32/8488_2.png) [@Happy\_Lendervedder](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Happy_Lendervedder)\ **Post date:** [December 1, 2017, 4:58am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2020-prez-hopefuls-your-take-or-your-candidates/801413/155 "2017-12-01T04:58:54Z")
All due respect to those participating in this thread, we’ve got probably a half-dozen to a dozen threads taking about how fucked things are right now with Trump. Can we turn this discussion back to potential 2020 candidates? ---
**Author:** ![nelliebly](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/nelliebly/32/5422_2.png) [@nelliebly](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/nelliebly)\ **Post date:** [December 1, 2017, 5:31am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2020-prez-hopefuls-your-take-or-your-candidates/801413/156 "2017-12-01T05:31:14Z")
> [@Happy\_Lendervedder](#): > > All due respect to those participating in this thread, we’ve got probably a half-dozen to a dozen threads taking about how fucked things are right now with Trump. Can we turn this discussion back to potential 2020 candidates? Sure, but I still think if we’re looking at candidates who might defeat Trump, we have to ask ourselves what kind of candidate that might be otherwise. I like Cory Booker, and I don’t think it’d be a big problem for him to walk back his endorsement of vouchers, but he’d have to tone down his “love” rhetoric. I understand the point, but it’s a little too Oprah. I was impressed by his speech at the Democratic convention, which I heard on the radio, but I tuned in late and thought he was a preacher. ---
**Author:** ![asahi](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/asahi/32/8693_2.png) [@asahi](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/asahi)\ **Post date:** [December 1, 2017, 11:10am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2020-prez-hopefuls-your-take-or-your-candidates/801413/157 "2017-12-01T11:10:25Z")
> [@HurricaneDitka](#): > > Nope. I agree that deporting illegal immigrants in and of itself isn’t legally or even politically problematic; Obama, in fact, had been quietly expediting deportation numbers by encouraging self deportations. I’m referring more to the manner in which this is being done, such as going after non-violent offenders, and also by leaning on local jurisdictions to assist them in federal immigration enforcement when their priorities clearly often lie elsewhere. By extension, I’m also referring to how Trump is using immigration as a political and even a social/cultural wedge issue, using sensational events to whip up xenophobia. This is remarkably similar to how the Nazis and even how other nationalist regimes on the left like Pol Pot’s Khmer Rouge might have behaved. ---
**Author:** ![Algher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/3d9bf3/32.png) [@Algher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Algher)\ **Post date:** [December 1, 2017, 4:17pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2020-prez-hopefuls-your-take-or-your-candidates/801413/158 "2017-12-01T16:17:09Z")
> [@Thing\_Fish](#): > > 1. Labor leaders are not an especially popular group in this country, which sucks but is the reality. There would be no precedent for someone going directly from heading a union to the White House; I can’t think offhand of any who have even been elected Governor or Senator. > > 2. glancing at Trumka’s Wikipedia page, he was implicated in a money laundering scheme in 1996 to allow the Teamsters to use general union funds to promote the re-election of their incumbent President. He pled the Fifth Amendment, and nobody was ever convicted. Still not a good look. Ronald Reagan took his time as head of a union to get into the Governorship, and later the Presidency. ---
**Author:** ![JKellyMap](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/jkellymap/32/15880_2.png) [@JKellyMap](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/JKellyMap)\ **Post date:** [December 1, 2017, 5:04pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2020-prez-hopefuls-your-take-or-your-candidates/801413/159 "2017-12-01T17:04:22Z")
**tim314** , well put. ---
**Author:** ![tim314](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/tim314/32/3468_2.png) [@tim314](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/tim314)\ **Post date:** [December 1, 2017, 5:39pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2020-prez-hopefuls-your-take-or-your-candidates/801413/160 "2017-12-01T17:39:38Z")
> [@tim314](#): > > And maybe the 2018 election is some reason to be optimistic, but I don’t know… I think I meant to say “the 2017 election” – meaning the good results in places like Virginia. (Of course, Trump lost Virginia in 2016, so I’m not sure how much that tells us.) Time will tell if 2018 gives reason for optimism. Edited to add: Now, if a majority of Alabamians were to decide that multiple sexual assault allegations against a candidate are a deal-breaker for them, _that_ might be some cause for optimism… [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2020-prez-hopefuls-your-take-or-your-candidates/801413.md?page=7) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2020-prez-hopefuls-your-take-or-your-candidates/801413.md?page=9)