# 2022 Senate Confidence Pool Contest **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Created:** [October 10, 2022, 10:44pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2022-senate-confidence-pool-contest/973042 "2022-10-10T22:44:59Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 2
**Author:** ![racer72](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/racer72/32/3075_2.png) [@racer72](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/racer72)\ **Post date:** [October 14, 2022, 4:51pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2022-senate-confidence-pool-contest/973042/21 "2022-10-14T16:51:49Z")
I’m going all in with the D’s. The 1-10 will be done randomly. Arizona D 2 Colorado D 8 Florida D 10 Georgia D 4 Nevada D 1 New Hampshire D 3 North Carolina D 9 Ohio D 5 Pennsylvania D 6 Wisconsin D 7 ---
**Author:** ![Lance\_Turbo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lance_turbo/32/6156_2.png) [@Lance\_Turbo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Lance_Turbo)\ **Post date:** [October 14, 2022, 4:54pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2022-senate-confidence-pool-contest/973042/22 "2022-10-14T16:54:21Z")
Thanks for entering. I find your strategy… let’s go with questionable. But it’s a properly formatted entry and I appreciate your participation. ---
**Author:** ![kayaker](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/kayaker/32/441_2.png) [@kayaker](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/kayaker)\ **Post date:** [October 14, 2022, 7:26pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2022-senate-confidence-pool-contest/973042/23 "2022-10-14T19:26:30Z")
> [@Lance\_Turbo](#): > > I find your strategy… let’s go with questionable. A friend in high school published a football pool with pro and college games and point spreads. I always tried, but failed miserably. One week I bought two sheets. One I went through and carefully picked my winners. The other I picked all the opposites. My opposites won, but my friend who ran the pool was _furious_ when I told him my approach. ---
**Author:** ![DSeid](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dseid/32/20194_2.png) [@DSeid](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DSeid)\ **Post date:** [October 16, 2022, 6:02pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2022-senate-confidence-pool-contest/973042/24 "2022-10-16T18:02:49Z")
My approach is to simply use 538 as an analysis of the aggregated polls with a very slight sprinkling of pessimism. The coin flip one goes R. Only problem is the four he gives the same probability rating to. Those I picked fairly randomly. I am sad to have so little confidence about Georgia. | State | Party | Confidence | | --- | --- | --- | | Arizona | D | 7 | | Colorado | D | 10 | | Florida | R | 9 | | Georgia | D | 2 | | Nevada | R | 1 | | New Hampshire | D | 8 | | North Carolina | R | 3 | | Ohio | R | 4 | | Pennsylvania | D | 5 | | Wisconsin | R | 6 | ---
**Author:** ![DSeid](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dseid/32/20194_2.png) [@DSeid](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DSeid)\ **Post date:** [October 16, 2022, 6:36pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2022-senate-confidence-pool-contest/973042/25 "2022-10-16T18:36:02Z")
I’m going to throw in Utah as a state to actually watch for an R loss (albeit to an I), even though 538 has high confidence for the R win. > **[Lee leading McMullin by 4 points in Utah Senate race: poll](https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/3682565-lee-leading-mcmullin-by-4-points-in-utah-senate-race-poll/)** > > Incumbent Sen. Mike Lee (R) is leading Independent challenger Evan McMullin by 4 points in the Utah Senate race, according to a new Deseret News-Hinckley Institute of Politics poll. The poll, condu… Within margin of error in among those who say they’ll definitely vote. Lee is not liked. An upset R loss would at least be a thumb in the eye for MAGA loyalists. I’d need odds to bet on McMullin but not absurd ones. ---
**Author:** ![Lance\_Turbo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lance_turbo/32/6156_2.png) [@Lance\_Turbo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Lance_Turbo)\ **Post date:** [October 16, 2022, 6:38pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2022-senate-confidence-pool-contest/973042/26 "2022-10-16T18:38:41Z")
PredictIt is giving roughly 6:1. [Which party will win the 2022 U.S. Senate election in Utah?](https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7532/Which-party-will-win-the-2022-US-Senate-election-in-Utah) ---
**Author:** ![DSeid](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dseid/32/20194_2.png) [@DSeid](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DSeid)\ **Post date:** [October 16, 2022, 8:12pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2022-senate-confidence-pool-contest/973042/27 "2022-10-16T20:12:05Z")
Thanks for the link. Yeah it is a long shot. But Romney’s steadfast refusal to endorse Lee will I think sway some, and Lee’s begging for it the other day only highlights the fact to Romney supporters: not supporting the GOP nominee is a big dog not barking that is heard clearly. 🙂 I don’t expect the upset but if it happens I won’t be as surprised as some! ---
**Author:** ![JKellyMap](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/jkellymap/32/15880_2.png) [@JKellyMap](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/JKellyMap)\ **Post date:** [October 22, 2022, 12:58pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2022-senate-confidence-pool-contest/973042/28 "2022-10-22T12:58:44Z")
FiveThirtyEight is down to 56% of Senate model iterations giving a majority to the Dems (and just 19% of House model iterations). ---
**Author:** ![Lance\_Turbo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lance_turbo/32/6156_2.png) [@Lance\_Turbo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Lance_Turbo)\ **Post date:** [October 22, 2022, 4:04pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2022-senate-confidence-pool-contest/973042/29 "2022-10-22T16:04:55Z")
Yeah, things have shifted. Reminder, anyone may update their entry, as often as they like, up to the end of the day before election day. ---
**Author:** ![Railer13](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/railer13/32/9742_2.png) [@Railer13](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Railer13)\ **Post date:** [October 22, 2022, 5:46pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2022-senate-confidence-pool-contest/973042/30 "2022-10-22T17:46:59Z")
Clueless as usual, but here goes: | State | Party | Confidence | | --- | --- | --- | | Arizona | D | 2 | | Colorado | D | 10 | | Florida | R | 9 | | Georgia | D | 3 | | Nevada | D | 5 | | New Hampshire | D | 6 | | North Carolina | R | 7 | | Ohio | D | 1 | | Pennsylvania | D | 4 | | Wisconsin | R | 8 | ---
**Author:** ![JKellyMap](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/jkellymap/32/15880_2.png) [@JKellyMap](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/JKellyMap)\ **Post date:** [October 23, 2022, 8:44pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2022-senate-confidence-pool-contest/973042/31 "2022-10-23T20:44:08Z")
Okay, I’ll make one little change, for Nevada: Arizona D 8 Colorado D 10 Florida R 9 Georgia D 6 Nevada R 1 New Hampshire D 2 North Carolina R 5 Ohio R 7 Pennsylvania D 3 Wisconsin R 4 ---
**Author:** ![Lance\_Turbo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lance_turbo/32/6156_2.png) [@Lance\_Turbo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Lance_Turbo)\ **Post date:** [October 23, 2022, 8:56pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2022-senate-confidence-pool-contest/973042/32 "2022-10-23T20:56:45Z")
I’m planning to post an update to mine tomorrow. ---
**Author:** ![flurb](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/f/51bf81/32.png) [@flurb](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/flurb)\ **Post date:** [October 24, 2022, 1:33am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2022-senate-confidence-pool-contest/973042/33 "2022-10-24T01:33:38Z")
Alas, I’m feeling better and better about my picks and worse and worse about the future of our nation. ---
**Author:** ![Kolak\_of\_Twilo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/kolak_of_twilo/32/73_2.png) [@Kolak\_of\_Twilo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Kolak_of_Twilo)\ **Post date:** [October 28, 2022, 4:02pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2022-senate-confidence-pool-contest/973042/34 "2022-10-28T16:02:37Z")
Update to my original prediction in post #5. | State | Party | Confidence | | --- | --- | --- | | Arizona | D | 3 | | Colorado | D | 9 | | Florida | R | 10 | | Georgia | R | 2 | | Nevada | R | 4 | | New Hampshire | D | 5 | | North Carolina | R | 8 | | Ohio | R | 6 | | Pennsylvania | R | 1 | | Wisconsin | R | 7 | Mostly minor changes with the switch of AZ going from R to D being the most notable. I’m fairly confident Kelly will be elected to a full term. I will add Alejandro Mayorkas, Secretary of Homeland Security to the list of those who will be subject to hearings and probably impeachment in the soon to be GOP controlled House. ---
**Author:** ![Lance\_Turbo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lance_turbo/32/6156_2.png) [@Lance\_Turbo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Lance_Turbo)\ **Post date:** [October 28, 2022, 4:23pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2022-senate-confidence-pool-contest/973042/35 "2022-10-28T16:23:59Z")
Thank you for that update. I keep meaning to update mine, but every time I set out to do so it just puts me in a bad mood. Reminder: anyone can join or update their entry at any time up to the end of the day before election day. Tell your friends. ---
**Author:** ![SlipperyPete](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/ba9def/32.png) [@SlipperyPete](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/SlipperyPete)\ **Post date:** [October 31, 2022, 1:03pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2022-senate-confidence-pool-contest/973042/36 "2022-10-31T13:03:40Z")
Arizona D 3 Colorado D 10 Florida R 7 Georgia D 5 Nevada D 6 New Hampshire D 8 North Carolina R 9 Ohio R 2 Pennsylvania D 1 Wisconsin D 4 ---
**Author:** ![smitty300](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/7ea924/32.png) [@smitty300](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/smitty300)\ **Post date:** [November 1, 2022, 7:32pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2022-senate-confidence-pool-contest/973042/37 "2022-11-01T19:32:25Z")
| State | Party | Confidence | | --- | --- | --- | | Arizona | D | 3 | | Colorado | D | 9 | | Florida | R | 10 | | Georgia | R | 5 | | Nevada | R | 4 | | New Hampshire | D | 1 | | North Carolina | R | 7 | | Ohio | R | 6 | | Pennsylvania | R | 2 | | Wisconsin | R | 8 | ---
**Author:** ![Lance\_Turbo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lance_turbo/32/6156_2.png) [@Lance\_Turbo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Lance_Turbo)\ **Post date:** [November 6, 2022, 8:33pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2022-senate-confidence-pool-contest/973042/38 "2022-11-06T20:33:31Z")
**Reminder: Anyone can join or update their entry by posting in this thread at any point before midnight (central time) on the the day before election day (11/8).** Here’s my update. | State | Party | Confidence | | --- | --- | --- | | Arizona | R | 1 | | Colorado | D | 8 | | Florida | R | 10 | | Georgia | R | 2 | | Nevada | R | 4 | | New Hampshire | D | 5 | | North Carolina | R | 9 | | Ohio | R | 6 | | Pennsylvania | R | 3 | | Wisconsin | R | 7 | Which is grim as fuck, but I gotta stick with my methodology. This has the four closest races all going R. I’m probably going to post one more update tomorrow. ---
**Author:** ![Lance\_Turbo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lance_turbo/32/6156_2.png) [@Lance\_Turbo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Lance_Turbo)\ **Post date:** [November 6, 2022, 8:44pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2022-senate-confidence-pool-contest/973042/39 "2022-11-06T20:44:12Z")
I’ve also put together a Google sheet that contains everyones’ entries and will automate scoring the results. I should be able to live update this Tuesday night as races are called. Of course, there’s a pretty high probability that not all races will be called Tuesday and it’s even possible we won’t know the Georgia result until January (run-off if no one gets 50% +1). > **[SDMB 2022 Senate confidence pool](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1S0_8PUn6kVnogIT-O6Yf4HXUiYhL8qFDI_DgufUz1Ec/edit?usp=sharing)** > > Leaderboard > > Index,Rank,Name,Score,Max,Hits,Misses,Race,Result,Markdown... This should be up to date as of right now including updated entries by @JKellyMap, @Kolak_of_Twilo, and me. But I am not perfect, so feel free to check that the sheet is accurate for your own entry (Entries tab). In the event of an error, the entry posted in the the thread is the one that counts, of course. ---
**Author:** ![DSeid](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dseid/32/20194_2.png) [@DSeid](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DSeid)\ **Post date:** [November 6, 2022, 9:23pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2022-senate-confidence-pool-contest/973042/40 "2022-11-06T21:23:16Z")
Well my bets are now optimistic as heck but betting more realistically is too damn depressing so I’ll stick with it. This is aspirational betting! [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2022-senate-confidence-pool-contest/973042.md?page=1) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2022-senate-confidence-pool-contest/973042.md?page=3)