# 2022 Senate Confidence Pool Contest **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Created:** [October 10, 2022, 10:44pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2022-senate-confidence-pool-contest/973042 "2022-10-10T22:44:59Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 3
**Author:** ![Lance\_Turbo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lance_turbo/32/6156_2.png) [@Lance\_Turbo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Lance_Turbo)\ **Post date:** [November 6, 2022, 9:27pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2022-senate-confidence-pool-contest/973042/41 "2022-11-06T21:27:41Z")
> [@DSeid](#): > > This is aspirational betting! It’s not betting 😉, but I like where your head’s at. ---
**Author:** ![flurb](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/f/51bf81/32.png) [@flurb](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/flurb)\ **Post date:** [November 7, 2022, 1:58pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2022-senate-confidence-pool-contest/973042/42 "2022-11-07T13:58:12Z")
If I’ve done this right, I should still have the same results I posted previously but changed the confidences around some: | State | Party | Confidence | | --- | --- | --- | | Arizona | D | 1 | | Colorado | D | 7 | | Florida | R | 10 | | Georgia | R | 3 | | Nevada | R | 4 | | New Hampshire | D | 5 | | North Carolina | R | 9 | | Ohio | R | 8 | | Pennsylvania | R | 2 | | Wisconsin | R | 6 | ---
**Author:** ![smitty300](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/7ea924/32.png) [@smitty300](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/smitty300)\ **Post date:** [November 7, 2022, 2:15pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2022-senate-confidence-pool-contest/973042/43 "2022-11-07T14:15:38Z")
| State | Party | Confidence | | --- | --- | --- | | Arizona | R | 3 | | Colorado | D | 9 | | Florida | R | 10 | | Georgia | R | 5 | | Nevada | R | 4 | | New Hampshire | R | 1 | | North Carolina | R | 7 | | Ohio | R | 6 | | Pennsylvania | R | 2 | | Wisconsin | R | 8 | ---
**Author:** ![Hawkeyeop](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/h/958977/32.png) [@Hawkeyeop](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Hawkeyeop)\ **Post date:** [November 7, 2022, 2:21pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2022-senate-confidence-pool-contest/973042/44 "2022-11-07T14:21:36Z")
| State | Party | Confidence | | --- | --- | --- | | Arizona | D | 7 | | Colorado | D | 10 | | Florida | R | 9 | | Georgia | D | 4 | | Nevada | D | 1 | | New Hampshire | D | 6 | | North Carolina | R | 5 | | Ohio | R | 8 | | Pennsylvania | D | 3 | | Wisconsin | R | 2 | ---
**Author:** ![Kolak\_of\_Twilo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/kolak_of_twilo/32/73_2.png) [@Kolak\_of\_Twilo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Kolak_of_Twilo)\ **Post date:** [November 7, 2022, 4:48pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2022-senate-confidence-pool-contest/973042/45 "2022-11-07T16:48:01Z")
Ok, one last change concerning the outcome in PA. I may be letting myself get overly optimistic but I’m now switching it to a win by Fetterman. | State | Party | Confidence | | --- | --- | --- | | Arizona | D | 3 | | Colorado | D | 9 | | Florida | R | 10 | | Georgia | R | 2 | | Nevada | R | 4 | | New Hampshire | D | 5 | | North Carolina | R | 8 | | Ohio | R | 6 | | Pennsylvania | D | 1 | | Wisconsin | R | 7 | ---
**Author:** ![Lance\_Turbo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lance_turbo/32/6156_2.png) [@Lance\_Turbo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Lance_Turbo)\ **Post date:** [November 7, 2022, 7:30pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2022-senate-confidence-pool-contest/973042/46 "2022-11-07T19:30:13Z")
I have updated entries for @flurb, @smitty300, and @Kolak_of_Twilo, and added a new entry for @Hawkeyeop. My bot fires at around 2:00 CT, I’ll do my final update some time after that. Everyone has until midnight tonight (central time) to finalize their entries. Here’s that Google sheet link again: [SDMB 2022 Senate confidence pool - Google Sheets](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1S0_8PUn6kVnogIT-O6Yf4HXUiYhL8qFDI_DgufUz1Ec/edit?usp=sharing) ---
**Author:** ![Lance\_Turbo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lance_turbo/32/6156_2.png) [@Lance\_Turbo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Lance_Turbo)\ **Post date:** [November 7, 2022, 10:59pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2022-senate-confidence-pool-contest/973042/47 "2022-11-07T22:59:40Z")
Final update for me. Just a tiny shuffle of point values from my previous. | State | Party | Confidence | | --- | --- | --- | | Arizona | R | 1 | | Colorado | D | 8 | | Florida | R | 10 | | Georgia | R | 3 | | Nevada | R | 5 | | New Hampshire | D | 4 | | North Carolina | R | 9 | | Ohio | R | 7 | | Pennsylvania | R | 2 | | Wisconsin | R | 6 | Has anyone looked at the Google sheet? Is the information presented clearly? Any questions? ---
**Author:** ![Kolak\_of\_Twilo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/kolak_of_twilo/32/73_2.png) [@Kolak\_of\_Twilo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Kolak_of_Twilo)\ **Post date:** [November 8, 2022, 2:09am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2022-senate-confidence-pool-contest/973042/48 "2022-11-08T02:09:28Z")
Ouch. Looks like my initial pessimism has rubbed off on you Lance. (Also, the sheet doesn’t look like it shows my PA update correctly) ---
**Author:** ![Lance\_Turbo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lance_turbo/32/6156_2.png) [@Lance\_Turbo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Lance_Turbo)\ **Post date:** [November 8, 2022, 2:14am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2022-senate-confidence-pool-contest/973042/49 "2022-11-08T02:14:43Z")
Damn it! Now I have to check everyone’s. Yours should be good. ---
**Author:** ![Lance\_Turbo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lance_turbo/32/6156_2.png) [@Lance\_Turbo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Lance_Turbo)\ **Post date:** [November 8, 2022, 2:35am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2022-senate-confidence-pool-contest/973042/50 "2022-11-08T02:35:20Z")
OK, everything is checked. I think what I did was update the entry checker and forgot to copy things over to the entries tab. While I was doing that QA I noticed that three players have the exact same D’s and R’s. Then I mapped D to 1 and R to 0 so that the D and R choices could be interpreted as 10-bit binary numbers. | Player | Number | | --- | --- | | smitty300 | 2 | | Lance\_Turbo | 34 | | flurb | 35 | | Kolak\_of\_Twilo | 291 | | DSeid | 299 | | Jas09 | 299 | | JKellyMap | 299 | | Karen\_Lingel | 306 | | Hawkeyeop | 315 | | Railer13 | 443 | | SlipperyPete | 827 | | BobLibDem | 955 | | racer72 | 1023 | So it’s easy to see that @DSeid, @Jas09, and @JKellyMap all have the same D/R vector, and there are no other collisions. ---
**Author:** ![Lance\_Turbo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lance_turbo/32/6156_2.png) [@Lance\_Turbo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Lance_Turbo)\ **Post date:** [November 8, 2022, 9:30pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2022-senate-confidence-pool-contest/973042/51 "2022-11-08T21:30:05Z")
I forgot a previous commitment and might be AFK when some of the early action goes down. I’ll be out ~7 - 10:30 CT. I will try to update the thread as soon as I return. ---
**Author:** ![kayaker](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/kayaker/32/441_2.png) [@kayaker](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/kayaker)\ **Post date:** [November 8, 2022, 10:48pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2022-senate-confidence-pool-contest/973042/52 "2022-11-08T22:48:56Z")
> [@Lance\_Turbo](#): > > ~7 - 10:30 CT. Anyone else have to work to convert that to real time (EST)? 🦆 ---
**Author:** ![Lance\_Turbo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lance_turbo/32/6156_2.png) [@Lance\_Turbo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Lance_Turbo)\ **Post date:** [November 8, 2022, 10:53pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2022-senate-confidence-pool-contest/973042/53 "2022-11-08T22:53:20Z")
I had to work to convert it to Central Time. I’m in Denver. “Board time” is Central Time, and I think the membership leans toward that, but I could be wrong. ---
**Author:** ![kayaker](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/kayaker/32/441_2.png) [@kayaker](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/kayaker)\ **Post date:** [November 8, 2022, 10:57pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2022-senate-confidence-pool-contest/973042/54 "2022-11-08T22:57:38Z")
Just excited, looking forward to returns. 😀 ---
**Author:** ![Lance\_Turbo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lance_turbo/32/6156_2.png) [@Lance\_Turbo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Lance_Turbo)\ **Post date:** [November 8, 2022, 10:59pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2022-senate-confidence-pool-contest/973042/55 "2022-11-08T22:59:19Z")
1st polls close somewhere in about one minute. That’s one minute Pacific Time. ---
**Author:** ![Lance\_Turbo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lance_turbo/32/6156_2.png) [@Lance\_Turbo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Lance_Turbo)\ **Post date:** [November 9, 2022, 1:03am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2022-senate-confidence-pool-contest/973042/56 "2022-11-09T01:03:53Z")
We have a called race. 12 of 13 picked Rubio to win Florida. | Rank | Name | Score | Max | Hits | Misses | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 1 | flurb | 10 | 55 | 1 | 0 | | 1 | Karen\_Lingel | 10 | 55 | 1 | 0 | | 1 | Kolak\_of\_Twilo | 10 | 55 | 1 | 0 | | 1 | Lance\_Turbo | 10 | 55 | 1 | 0 | | 1 | smitty300 | 10 | 55 | 1 | 0 | | 6 | DSeid | 9 | 55 | 1 | 0 | | 6 | Hawkeyeop | 9 | 55 | 1 | 0 | | 6 | Jas09 | 9 | 55 | 1 | 0 | | 6 | JKellyMap | 9 | 55 | 1 | 0 | | 6 | Railer13 | 9 | 55 | 1 | 0 | | 11 | SlipperyPete | 7 | 55 | 1 | 0 | | 12 | BobLibDem | 5 | 55 | 1 | 0 | | 13 | racer72 | 0 | 45 | 0 | 1 | I’m out for three hours. See you then. ---
**Author:** ![Karen\_Lingel](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/karen_lingel/32/18649_2.png) [@Karen\_Lingel](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Karen_Lingel)\ **Post date:** [November 9, 2022, 2:32am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2022-senate-confidence-pool-contest/973042/57 "2022-11-09T02:32:11Z")
YES! I’m tied for #1 for at least a few hours! OH YEAH! ---
**Author:** ![Lance\_Turbo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lance_turbo/32/6156_2.png) [@Lance\_Turbo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Lance_Turbo)\ **Post date:** [November 9, 2022, 4:57am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2022-senate-confidence-pool-contest/973042/58 "2022-11-09T04:57:16Z")
Four more races called. | Race | Result | | --- | --- | | Arizona | N/A | | Colorado | D | | Florida | R | | Georgia | N/A | | Nevada | N/A | | New Hampshire | D | | North Carolina | R | | Ohio | R | | Pennsylvania | N/A | | Wisconsin | N/A | Current leader board. | Rank | Name | Score | Max | Hits | Misses | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 1 | flurb | 39 | 55 | 5 | 0 | | 1 | Jas09 | 39 | 55 | 5 | 0 | | 3 | Hawkeyeop | 38 | 55 | 5 | 0 | | 3 | Kolak\_of\_Twilo | 38 | 55 | 5 | 0 | | 3 | Lance\_Turbo | 38 | 55 | 5 | 0 | | 6 | SlipperyPete | 36 | 55 | 5 | 0 | | 7 | DSeid | 34 | 55 | 5 | 0 | | 8 | JKellyMap | 33 | 55 | 5 | 0 | | 9 | Karen\_Lingel | 32 | 55 | 5 | 0 | | 9 | Railer13 | 32 | 54 | 4 | 1 | | 9 | smitty300 | 32 | 54 | 4 | 1 | | 12 | BobLibDem | 29 | 54 | 4 | 1 | | 13 | racer72 | 11 | 31 | 2 | 3 | Nine participants haven’t missed a race yet. ---
**Author:** ![Lance\_Turbo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lance_turbo/32/6156_2.png) [@Lance\_Turbo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Lance_Turbo)\ **Post date:** [November 9, 2022, 6:30am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2022-senate-confidence-pool-contest/973042/59 "2022-11-09T06:30:42Z")
Fetterman! Glad I was wrong on this one. | Rank | Name | Score | Max | Hits | Misses | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 1 | Jas09 | 45 | 55 | 6 | 0 | | 2 | Hawkeyeop | 41 | 55 | 6 | 0 | | 3 | DSeid | 39 | 55 | 6 | 0 | | 3 | Kolak\_of\_Twilo | 39 | 55 | 6 | 0 | | 3 | BobLibDem | 39 | 54 | 5 | 1 | | 3 | flurb | 39 | 53 | 5 | 1 | | 7 | Karen\_Lingel | 38 | 55 | 6 | 0 | | 7 | Lance\_Turbo | 38 | 53 | 5 | 1 | | 9 | SlipperyPete | 37 | 55 | 6 | 0 | | 10 | JKellyMap | 36 | 55 | 6 | 0 | | 10 | Railer13 | 36 | 54 | 5 | 1 | | 12 | smitty300 | 32 | 52 | 4 | 2 | | 13 | racer72 | 17 | 31 | 3 | 3 | ---
**Author:** ![Jas09](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/j/d07c76/32.png) [@Jas09](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Jas09)\ **Post date:** [November 9, 2022, 3:15pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2022-senate-confidence-pool-contest/973042/60 "2022-11-09T15:15:10Z")
Feeling pretty good about my predictions, as I have this sinking feeling CCM won’t pull it out in Vegas. Forecasters seem to think she can, but it will be very very tight. So then it comes down to GA, and I’m cautiously optimistic that without all of the other races on the ballot some GOP voters that actually care about Walker’s baggage might not show up letting Warnock squeak out a win. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2022-senate-confidence-pool-contest/973042.md?page=2) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2022-senate-confidence-pool-contest/973042.md?page=4)