# 2022 Senate Confidence Pool Contest **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Created:** [October 10, 2022, 10:44pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2022-senate-confidence-pool-contest/973042 "2022-10-10T22:44:59Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 4
**Author:** ![Lance\_Turbo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lance_turbo/32/6156_2.png) [@Lance\_Turbo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Lance_Turbo)\ **Post date:** [November 9, 2022, 5:25pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2022-senate-confidence-pool-contest/973042/61 "2022-11-09T17:25:21Z")
@Jas09, your entry looks great. You hit 6 of 6 called races, and you have 1, 2, 3, and 4 points on the remaining four races. Based on what I heard from Jon Ralston on TV this morning, 100k + outstanding votes in Nevada are almost completely Clark and Washoe counties mail in vote. Should break heavily blue. I like CCM’s chances. Or at least a little better than a coin flip. Georgia note: I think I said more than once that the GA runoff would be in January. I never even looked that up and made an assumption based on 2020. The actual runoff (if necessary) will be December 6. ---
**Author:** ![JKellyMap](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/jkellymap/32/15880_2.png) [@JKellyMap](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/JKellyMap)\ **Post date:** [November 9, 2022, 6:05pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2022-senate-confidence-pool-contest/973042/62 "2022-11-09T18:05:06Z")
@Lance_Turbo, if you have a moment, it’s time to revise the scores in light of networks calling the Wisconsin race (in favor of Ron Johnson, I’m very sorry to report, even if it keeps my win column clean in this thread.) ---
**Author:** ![Lance\_Turbo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lance_turbo/32/6156_2.png) [@Lance\_Turbo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Lance_Turbo)\ **Post date:** [November 9, 2022, 6:09pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2022-senate-confidence-pool-contest/973042/63 "2022-11-09T18:09:05Z")
Wisconsin updated. Fuck that state. The Dells are nice. | Rank | Name | Score | Max | Hits | Misses | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 1 | Jas09 | 49 | 55 | 7 | 0 | | 2 | Karen\_Lingel | 46 | 55 | 7 | 0 | | 2 | Kolak\_of\_Twilo | 46 | 55 | 7 | 0 | | 4 | DSeid | 45 | 55 | 7 | 0 | | 4 | flurb | 45 | 53 | 6 | 1 | | 6 | Railer13 | 44 | 54 | 6 | 1 | | 6 | Lance\_Turbo | 44 | 53 | 6 | 1 | | 8 | Hawkeyeop | 43 | 55 | 7 | 0 | | 9 | JKellyMap | 40 | 55 | 7 | 0 | | 9 | smitty300 | 40 | 52 | 5 | 2 | | 11 | BobLibDem | 39 | 51 | 5 | 2 | | 12 | SlipperyPete | 37 | 51 | 6 | 1 | | 13 | racer72 | 17 | 24 | 3 | 4 | Here’s the called races so far. Only Arizona, Georgia, and Nevada remain. | Race | Result | | --- | --- | | Arizona | N/A | | Colorado | D | | Florida | R | | Georgia | N/A | | Nevada | N/A | | New Hampshire | D | | North Carolina | R | | Ohio | R | | Pennsylvania | D | | Wisconsin | R | ---
**Author:** ![JKellyMap](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/jkellymap/32/15880_2.png) [@JKellyMap](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/JKellyMap)\ **Post date:** [November 9, 2022, 6:15pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2022-senate-confidence-pool-contest/973042/64 "2022-11-09T18:15:25Z")
> [@Lance\_Turbo](#): > > Wisconsin updated. Fuck that state. 🙂 (Hey, at least we re-elected our kindly schoolteacher governor, Tony Evers…and Barnes outperformed most recent polls. But, yeah, Johnson is a traitorous idiot, and it astounds me that anyone voted for him. Let’s just hope Walker loses the runoff, allowing Johnson to keep his title as the dumbest senator). ---
**Author:** ![Lance\_Turbo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lance_turbo/32/6156_2.png) [@Lance\_Turbo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Lance_Turbo)\ **Post date:** [November 9, 2022, 6:31pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2022-senate-confidence-pool-contest/973042/65 "2022-11-09T18:31:03Z")
@Jas09 impressively has all seven called races correct, and has the maximum possible score for seven correct picks. There’s only eight ways this can go now. I might brute force those outcomes and see who wins in each. ---
**Author:** ![flurb](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/f/51bf81/32.png) [@flurb](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/flurb)\ **Post date:** [November 9, 2022, 6:35pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2022-senate-confidence-pool-contest/973042/66 "2022-11-09T18:35:24Z")
At this point, given my picks in the remaining races, the farther down the rankings I fall the happier I’ll be. ---
**Author:** ![JKellyMap](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/jkellymap/32/15880_2.png) [@JKellyMap](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/JKellyMap)\ **Post date:** [November 9, 2022, 6:35pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2022-senate-confidence-pool-contest/973042/67 "2022-11-09T18:35:32Z")
That is impressive, but it also means Jas09 can only gain the minimum possible (6 points) for the three outstanding races. Fun times! ---
**Author:** ![Railer13](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/railer13/32/9742_2.png) [@Railer13](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Railer13)\ **Post date:** [November 9, 2022, 6:55pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2022-senate-confidence-pool-contest/973042/68 "2022-11-09T18:55:56Z")
Six contestants are 7-0, meaning that each of them can reach the maximum score of 55. I haven’t looked at the spreadsheet. Is it possible that all six can finish 10-0 with 55 points? ---
**Author:** ![Lance\_Turbo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lance_turbo/32/6156_2.png) [@Lance\_Turbo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Lance_Turbo)\ **Post date:** [November 9, 2022, 7:03pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2022-senate-confidence-pool-contest/973042/69 "2022-11-09T19:03:16Z")
> [@Railer13](#): > > Is it possible that all six can finish 10-0 with 55 points? There’s one way this can end with three perfect scores. Three different ways it can end with one perfect score. And four way this can end with no perfect scores. ---
**Author:** ![Railer13](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/railer13/32/9742_2.png) [@Railer13](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Railer13)\ **Post date:** [November 9, 2022, 7:04pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2022-senate-confidence-pool-contest/973042/70 "2022-11-09T19:04:52Z")
Thanks for the update! ---
**Author:** ![JKellyMap](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/jkellymap/32/15880_2.png) [@JKellyMap](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/JKellyMap)\ **Post date:** [November 9, 2022, 7:16pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2022-senate-confidence-pool-contest/973042/71 "2022-11-09T19:16:04Z")
> [@Lance\_Turbo](#): > > Wisconsin updated. Fuck that state. More evidence to support your sentiment. (This is my congressional district.) "ABC News can project that Republican Derrick Van Orden will win Wisconsin’s 3rd congressional district, picking up a seat formerly held by Democrat Ronald Kind. With 89% of the expected vote reporting, Van Orden has 52.8% of the vote to Democrat Brad Pfaff’s 47.1%. Van Orden was present at former President Donald Trump’s “Stop the Steal” rally on Jan. 6, 2021. Van Orden, a retired Navy SEAL, has said he was in the nation’s capital that day for meetings. Some Capitol Police officers are angry that Orden and others who were in Washington, D.C., that day have run for office. Four officers told ABC News they’re planning to retire early, adding to the already huge problem of worker retention on the force." Okay, this little hijack can end now. Back to the Senate contests… ---
**Author:** ![Lance\_Turbo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lance_turbo/32/6156_2.png) [@Lance\_Turbo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Lance_Turbo)\ **Post date:** [November 9, 2022, 9:58pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2022-senate-confidence-pool-contest/973042/72 "2022-11-09T21:58:34Z")
Here are the eight different ways this can play out. Results in seven different winners. @Karen_Lingel has two paths to victory. She doesn’t care about Arizona. Arizona D, Georgia D, Nevada D | Rank | Name | Score | Max | Hits | Misses | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 1 | Hawkeyeop | 55 | 55 | 10 | 0 | | 2 | DSeid | 54 | 54 | 9 | 1 | | 2 | Jas09 | 54 | 54 | 9 | 1 | | 2 | JKellyMap | 54 | 54 | 9 | 1 | | 2 | Railer13 | 54 | 54 | 9 | 1 | | 6 | BobLibDem | 51 | 51 | 8 | 2 | | 6 | SlipperyPete | 51 | 51 | 9 | 1 | | 8 | Karen\_Lingel | 49 | 49 | 8 | 2 | | 8 | Kolak\_of\_Twilo | 49 | 49 | 8 | 2 | | 10 | flurb | 46 | 46 | 7 | 3 | | 11 | Lance\_Turbo | 44 | 44 | 6 | 4 | | 12 | smitty300 | 40 | 40 | 5 | 5 | | 13 | racer72 | 24 | 24 | 6 | 4 | Arizona D, Georgia D, Nevada R | Rank | Name | Score | Max | Hits | Misses | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 1 | DSeid | 55 | 55 | 10 | 0 | | 1 | Jas09 | 55 | 55 | 10 | 0 | | 1 | JKellyMap | 55 | 55 | 10 | 0 | | 4 | Hawkeyeop | 54 | 54 | 9 | 1 | | 5 | Kolak\_of\_Twilo | 53 | 53 | 9 | 1 | | 6 | flurb | 50 | 50 | 8 | 2 | | 7 | Lance\_Turbo | 49 | 49 | 7 | 3 | | 7 | Railer13 | 49 | 49 | 8 | 2 | | 9 | BobLibDem | 47 | 47 | 7 | 3 | | 10 | Karen\_Lingel | 46 | 46 | 7 | 3 | | 11 | SlipperyPete | 45 | 45 | 8 | 2 | | 12 | smitty300 | 44 | 44 | 6 | 4 | | 13 | racer72 | 23 | 23 | 5 | 5 | Arizona D, Georgia R, Nevada D | Rank | Name | Score | Max | Hits | Misses | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 1 | Karen\_Lingel | 54 | 54 | 9 | 1 | | 2 | DSeid | 52 | 52 | 8 | 2 | | 2 | Jas09 | 52 | 52 | 8 | 2 | | 4 | Hawkeyeop | 51 | 51 | 9 | 1 | | 4 | Kolak\_of\_Twilo | 51 | 51 | 9 | 1 | | 4 | Railer13 | 51 | 51 | 8 | 2 | | 7 | BobLibDem | 49 | 49 | 7 | 3 | | 7 | flurb | 49 | 49 | 8 | 2 | | 9 | JKellyMap | 48 | 48 | 8 | 2 | | 10 | Lance\_Turbo | 47 | 47 | 7 | 3 | | 11 | SlipperyPete | 46 | 46 | 8 | 2 | | 12 | smitty300 | 45 | 45 | 6 | 4 | | 13 | racer72 | 20 | 20 | 5 | 5 | Arizona D, Georgia R, Nevada R | Rank | Name | Score | Max | Hits | Misses | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 1 | Kolak\_of\_Twilo | 55 | 55 | 10 | 0 | | 2 | DSeid | 53 | 53 | 9 | 1 | | 2 | flurb | 53 | 53 | 9 | 1 | | 2 | Jas09 | 53 | 53 | 9 | 1 | | 5 | Lance\_Turbo | 52 | 52 | 8 | 2 | | 6 | Karen\_Lingel | 51 | 51 | 8 | 2 | | 7 | Hawkeyeop | 50 | 50 | 8 | 2 | | 8 | JKellyMap | 49 | 49 | 9 | 1 | | 8 | smitty300 | 49 | 49 | 7 | 3 | | 10 | Railer13 | 46 | 46 | 7 | 3 | | 11 | BobLibDem | 45 | 45 | 6 | 4 | | 12 | SlipperyPete | 40 | 40 | 7 | 3 | | 13 | racer72 | 19 | 19 | 4 | 6 | Arizona R, Georgia D, Nevada D | Rank | Name | Score | Max | Hits | Misses | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 1 | Railer13 | 52 | 52 | 8 | 2 | | 2 | Jas09 | 51 | 51 | 8 | 2 | | 3 | Karen\_Lingel | 50 | 50 | 9 | 1 | | 4 | Hawkeyeop | 48 | 48 | 9 | 1 | | 4 | SlipperyPete | 48 | 48 | 8 | 2 | | 6 | DSeid | 47 | 47 | 8 | 2 | | 7 | JKellyMap | 46 | 46 | 8 | 2 | | 7 | Kolak\_of\_Twilo | 46 | 46 | 7 | 3 | | 9 | BobLibDem | 45 | 45 | 7 | 3 | | 9 | flurb | 45 | 45 | 6 | 4 | | 9 | Lance\_Turbo | 45 | 45 | 7 | 3 | | 12 | smitty300 | 43 | 43 | 6 | 4 | | 13 | racer72 | 22 | 22 | 5 | 5 | Arizona R, Georgia D, Nevada R | Rank | Name | Score | Max | Hits | Misses | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 1 | Jas09 | 52 | 52 | 9 | 1 | | 2 | Kolak\_of\_Twilo | 50 | 50 | 8 | 2 | | 2 | Lance\_Turbo | 50 | 50 | 8 | 2 | | 4 | flurb | 49 | 49 | 7 | 3 | | 5 | DSeid | 48 | 48 | 9 | 1 | | 6 | Hawkeyeop | 47 | 47 | 8 | 2 | | 6 | JKellyMap | 47 | 47 | 9 | 1 | | 6 | Karen\_Lingel | 47 | 47 | 8 | 2 | | 6 | Railer13 | 47 | 47 | 7 | 3 | | 6 | smitty300 | 47 | 47 | 7 | 3 | | 11 | SlipperyPete | 42 | 42 | 7 | 3 | | 12 | BobLibDem | 41 | 41 | 6 | 4 | | 13 | racer72 | 21 | 21 | 4 | 6 | Arizona R, Georgia R, Nevada D | Rank | Name | Score | Max | Hits | Misses | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 1 | Karen\_Lingel | 55 | 55 | 10 | 0 | | 2 | Jas09 | 49 | 49 | 7 | 3 | | 2 | Railer13 | 49 | 49 | 7 | 3 | | 4 | flurb | 48 | 48 | 7 | 3 | | 4 | Kolak\_of\_Twilo | 48 | 48 | 8 | 2 | | 4 | Lance\_Turbo | 48 | 48 | 8 | 2 | | 4 | smitty300 | 48 | 48 | 7 | 3 | | 8 | DSeid | 45 | 45 | 7 | 3 | | 9 | Hawkeyeop | 44 | 44 | 8 | 2 | | 10 | BobLibDem | 43 | 43 | 6 | 4 | | 10 | SlipperyPete | 43 | 43 | 7 | 3 | | 12 | JKellyMap | 40 | 40 | 7 | 3 | | 13 | racer72 | 18 | 18 | 4 | 6 | Arizona R, Georgia R, Nevada R | Rank | Name | Score | Max | Hits | Misses | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 1 | Lance\_Turbo | 53 | 53 | 9 | 1 | | 2 | flurb | 52 | 52 | 8 | 2 | | 2 | Karen\_Lingel | 52 | 52 | 9 | 1 | | 2 | Kolak\_of\_Twilo | 52 | 52 | 9 | 1 | | 2 | smitty300 | 52 | 52 | 8 | 2 | | 6 | Jas09 | 50 | 50 | 8 | 2 | | 7 | DSeid | 46 | 46 | 8 | 2 | | 8 | Railer13 | 44 | 44 | 6 | 4 | | 9 | Hawkeyeop | 43 | 43 | 7 | 3 | | 10 | JKellyMap | 41 | 41 | 8 | 2 | | 11 | BobLibDem | 39 | 39 | 5 | 5 | | 12 | SlipperyPete | 37 | 37 | 6 | 4 | | 13 | racer72 | 17 | 17 | 3 | 7 | ---
**Author:** ![Karen\_Lingel](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/karen_lingel/32/18649_2.png) [@Karen\_Lingel](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Karen_Lingel)\ **Post date:** [November 9, 2022, 10:23pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2022-senate-confidence-pool-contest/973042/73 "2022-11-09T22:23:13Z")
I’ve never cared about Arizona. ---
**Author:** ![kayaker](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/kayaker/32/441_2.png) [@kayaker](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/kayaker)\ **Post date:** [November 9, 2022, 10:35pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2022-senate-confidence-pool-contest/973042/74 "2022-11-09T22:35:31Z")
Their iced tea ain’t bad. ---
**Author:** ![JKellyMap](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/jkellymap/32/15880_2.png) [@JKellyMap](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/JKellyMap)\ **Post date:** [November 9, 2022, 10:35pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2022-senate-confidence-pool-contest/973042/75 "2022-11-09T22:35:57Z")
> [@Karen\_Lingel](#): > > I’ve never cared about Arizona. That was funny! (And, thanks to Lance for the math work). ---
**Author:** ![DSeid](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dseid/32/20194_2.png) [@DSeid](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DSeid)\ **Post date:** [November 10, 2022, 12:49am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2022-senate-confidence-pool-contest/973042/76 "2022-11-10T00:49:40Z")
Rooting for @Hawkeyeop!! ---
**Author:** ![Hawkeyeop](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/h/958977/32.png) [@Hawkeyeop](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Hawkeyeop)\ **Post date:** [November 10, 2022, 2:32am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2022-senate-confidence-pool-contest/973042/77 "2022-11-10T02:32:25Z")
Heh. Guessing you aren’t alone. I feel pretty good aboutit. I think all three of them are in decent shape. ---
**Author:** ![Kolak\_of\_Twilo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/kolak_of_twilo/32/73_2.png) [@Kolak\_of\_Twilo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Kolak_of_Twilo)\ **Post date:** [November 10, 2022, 2:37am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2022-senate-confidence-pool-contest/973042/78 "2022-11-10T02:37:07Z")
Oh good god, I seriously don’t want to have the best score in this thing. And does the GA runoff effect the results? ---
**Author:** ![Lance\_Turbo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lance_turbo/32/6156_2.png) [@Lance\_Turbo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Lance_Turbo)\ **Post date:** [November 10, 2022, 2:51am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2022-senate-confidence-pool-contest/973042/79 "2022-11-10T02:51:21Z")
> [@Kolak\_of\_Twilo](#): > > And does the GA runoff effect the results? The results are based on the final outcomes of the three states that have not been called. ---
**Author:** ![DSeid](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dseid/32/20194_2.png) [@DSeid](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DSeid)\ **Post date:** [November 10, 2022, 6:26pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2022-senate-confidence-pool-contest/973042/80 "2022-11-10T18:26:12Z")
I wonder how much early voting impacts the predictive power of poll movement in the last two weeks? It seems results are closer to polling results when Ds “peaked too early” than the drift back down just before in person voting started. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2022-senate-confidence-pool-contest/973042.md?page=3) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2022-senate-confidence-pool-contest/973042.md?page=5)