# 2022 Senate Confidence Pool Contest **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Created:** [October 10, 2022, 10:44pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2022-senate-confidence-pool-contest/973042 "2022-10-10T22:44:59Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 5
**Author:** ![Lance\_Turbo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lance_turbo/32/6156_2.png) [@Lance\_Turbo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Lance_Turbo)\ **Post date:** [November 10, 2022, 6:32pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2022-senate-confidence-pool-contest/973042/81 "2022-11-10T18:32:21Z")
I think pollsters, for the most part, include people who already voted in their pools of people to survey, which should nullify any early voting effect. There may be other confounding variables that I’m failing to consider. ---
**Author:** ![DSeid](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dseid/32/20194_2.png) [@DSeid](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DSeid)\ **Post date:** [November 10, 2022, 6:37pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2022-senate-confidence-pool-contest/973042/82 "2022-11-10T18:37:27Z")
People who already have voted should be weighted higher. You know they turned out. OTOH one suspects that those who change their mind over the last two weeks and have not yet voted may be less engaged and less likely to vote. ---
**Author:** ![Karen\_Lingel](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/karen_lingel/32/18649_2.png) [@Karen\_Lingel](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Karen_Lingel)\ **Post date:** [November 10, 2022, 6:52pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2022-senate-confidence-pool-contest/973042/83 "2022-11-10T18:52:45Z")
So looks like it will be a while before we find out the winner (I hope it’s me, I hope it’s me). In the meantime, I have a little confession… I’m in California, and I have my brain full of figuring out how to regulate dialysis clinics. I couldn’t be bothered to analyze the senate races of other states. Thus, all my choices were picked by random. I used random number generators from the internet, and when I saw how similar my results were to the other contestants, I figured _you all_ had done the same, using the same internet random number generators! I am _astounded_ at how well I am doing in the pool. I’m also slightly amused at how much I want to win the non-prize! ---
**Author:** ![Railer13](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/railer13/32/9742_2.png) [@Railer13](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Railer13)\ **Post date:** [November 10, 2022, 7:01pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2022-senate-confidence-pool-contest/973042/84 "2022-11-10T19:01:17Z")
> [@Karen\_Lingel](#): > > I’m also slightly amused at how much I want to win the non-prize! I don’t want to win, because the only way I win is for Arizona to go Red. And, sorry, I don’t want you to win either, because if you win, Herschel Walker is a Senator for the next six years. ---
**Author:** ![Lance\_Turbo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lance_turbo/32/6156_2.png) [@Lance\_Turbo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Lance_Turbo)\ **Post date:** [November 10, 2022, 7:30pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2022-senate-confidence-pool-contest/973042/85 "2022-11-10T19:30:26Z")
Yeah, I only win with an R sweep of the remaining races. No thanks you. Someone should tell that pit thread guy that people are able to separate this contest from the real world. ---
**Author:** ![Karen\_Lingel](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/karen_lingel/32/18649_2.png) [@Karen\_Lingel](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Karen_Lingel)\ **Post date:** [November 10, 2022, 9:06pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2022-senate-confidence-pool-contest/973042/86 "2022-11-10T21:06:06Z")
I’m willing to take 10th place to ensure that Herschel stays out of the senate. ---
**Author:** ![Lance\_Turbo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lance_turbo/32/6156_2.png) [@Lance\_Turbo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Lance_Turbo)\ **Post date:** [November 10, 2022, 10:08pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2022-senate-confidence-pool-contest/973042/87 "2022-11-10T22:08:29Z")
No can do. @racer72 has last place locked up. ---
**Author:** ![Lance\_Turbo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lance_turbo/32/6156_2.png) [@Lance\_Turbo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Lance_Turbo)\ **Post date:** [November 11, 2022, 1:55pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2022-senate-confidence-pool-contest/973042/88 "2022-11-11T13:55:32Z")
> I’ll wait for a network to call it, but I’ve never seen Wasserman miss. ---
**Author:** ![Jas09](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/j/d07c76/32.png) [@Jas09](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Jas09)\ **Post date:** [November 11, 2022, 2:54pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2022-senate-confidence-pool-contest/973042/89 "2022-11-11T14:54:17Z")
I hope your’e right but there seems to be a lot of questions about how the remaining Maricopa ballots will go. From batch to batch they could be anywhere from 60/40 Kelly (if they are true “early votes”) or 65/35 Masters (if there are “day of drop off early votes”). If it’s the latter, there may be just enough for Masters to come back. I’d like to know why Wasserman is so confident. ---
**Author:** ![DSeid](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dseid/32/20194_2.png) [@DSeid](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DSeid)\ **Post date:** [November 11, 2022, 6:13pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2022-senate-confidence-pool-contest/973042/90 "2022-11-11T18:13:47Z")
Hey, if so I’m in no lower than second place! And still rooting to lose to @Hawkeyeop with the sweep of all three! (Yeah that was a strange pit position. I’d have been thrilled if @racer72’s method led to their coming in with the most points instead of assured of last place!) ---
**Author:** ![Lance\_Turbo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lance_turbo/32/6156_2.png) [@Lance\_Turbo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Lance_Turbo)\ **Post date:** [November 12, 2022, 3:36am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2022-senate-confidence-pool-contest/973042/91 "2022-11-12T03:36:19Z")
Arizona called for Kelly. > | Rank | Name | Score | Max | Hits | Misses | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 1 | DSeid | 52 | 55 | 8 | 0 | | 1 | Jas09 | 52 | 55 | 8 | 0 | | 3 | Hawkeyeop | 50 | 55 | 8 | 0 | | 4 | Kolak\_of\_Twilo | 49 | 55 | 8 | 0 | | 5 | JKellyMap | 48 | 55 | 8 | 0 | | 6 | Karen\_Lingel | 46 | 54 | 7 | 1 | | 6 | Railer13 | 46 | 54 | 7 | 1 | | 6 | flurb | 46 | 53 | 7 | 1 | | 9 | BobLibDem | 45 | 51 | 6 | 2 | | 10 | Lance\_Turbo | 44 | 52 | 6 | 2 | | 11 | SlipperyPete | 40 | 51 | 7 | 1 | | 11 | smitty300 | 40 | 49 | 5 | 3 | | 13 | racer72 | 19 | 24 | 4 | 4 | ---
**Author:** ![Lance\_Turbo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lance_turbo/32/6156_2.png) [@Lance\_Turbo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Lance_Turbo)\ **Post date:** [November 12, 2022, 3:40am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2022-senate-confidence-pool-contest/973042/92 "2022-11-12T03:40:25Z")
Two races left to call. Four possible outcomes. One is the three-way perfect tie Georgia D, Nevada D | Rank | Name | Score | Max | Hits | Misses | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 1 | Hawkeyeop | 55 | 55 | 10 | 0 | | 2 | DSeid | 54 | 54 | 9 | 1 | | 2 | Jas09 | 54 | 54 | 9 | 1 | | 2 | JKellyMap | 54 | 54 | 9 | 1 | | 2 | Railer13 | 54 | 54 | 9 | 1 | | 6 | BobLibDem | 51 | 51 | 8 | 2 | | 6 | SlipperyPete | 51 | 51 | 9 | 1 | | 8 | Karen\_Lingel | 49 | 49 | 8 | 2 | | 8 | Kolak\_of\_Twilo | 49 | 49 | 8 | 2 | | 10 | flurb | 46 | 46 | 7 | 3 | | 11 | Lance\_Turbo | 44 | 44 | 6 | 4 | | 12 | smitty300 | 40 | 40 | 5 | 5 | | 13 | racer72 | 24 | 24 | 6 | 4 | Georgia D, Nevada R | Rank | Name | Score | Max | Hits | Misses | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 1 | DSeid | 55 | 55 | 10 | 0 | | 1 | Jas09 | 55 | 55 | 10 | 0 | | 1 | JKellyMap | 55 | 55 | 10 | 0 | | 4 | Hawkeyeop | 54 | 54 | 9 | 1 | | 5 | Kolak\_of\_Twilo | 53 | 53 | 9 | 1 | | 6 | flurb | 50 | 50 | 8 | 2 | | 7 | Lance\_Turbo | 49 | 49 | 7 | 3 | | 7 | Railer13 | 49 | 49 | 8 | 2 | | 9 | BobLibDem | 47 | 47 | 7 | 3 | | 10 | Karen\_Lingel | 46 | 46 | 7 | 3 | | 11 | SlipperyPete | 45 | 45 | 8 | 2 | | 12 | smitty300 | 44 | 44 | 6 | 4 | | 13 | racer72 | 23 | 23 | 5 | 5 | Georgia R, Nevada D | Rank | Name | Score | Max | Hits | Misses | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 1 | Karen\_Lingel | 54 | 54 | 9 | 1 | | 2 | DSeid | 52 | 52 | 8 | 2 | | 2 | Jas09 | 52 | 52 | 8 | 2 | | 4 | Hawkeyeop | 51 | 51 | 9 | 1 | | 4 | Kolak\_of\_Twilo | 51 | 51 | 9 | 1 | | 4 | Railer13 | 51 | 51 | 8 | 2 | | 7 | BobLibDem | 49 | 49 | 7 | 3 | | 7 | flurb | 49 | 49 | 8 | 2 | | 9 | JKellyMap | 48 | 48 | 8 | 2 | | 10 | Lance\_Turbo | 47 | 47 | 7 | 3 | | 11 | SlipperyPete | 46 | 46 | 8 | 2 | | 12 | smitty300 | 45 | 45 | 6 | 4 | | 13 | racer72 | 20 | 20 | 5 | 5 | Georgia R, Nevada R | Rank | Name | Score | Max | Hits | Misses | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 1 | Kolak\_of\_Twilo | 55 | 55 | 10 | 0 | | 2 | DSeid | 53 | 53 | 9 | 1 | | 2 | flurb | 53 | 53 | 9 | 1 | | 2 | Jas09 | 53 | 53 | 9 | 1 | | 5 | Lance\_Turbo | 52 | 52 | 8 | 2 | | 6 | Karen\_Lingel | 51 | 51 | 8 | 2 | | 7 | Hawkeyeop | 50 | 50 | 8 | 2 | | 8 | JKellyMap | 49 | 49 | 9 | 1 | | 8 | smitty300 | 49 | 49 | 7 | 3 | | 10 | Railer13 | 46 | 46 | 7 | 3 | | 11 | BobLibDem | 45 | 45 | 6 | 4 | | 12 | SlipperyPete | 40 | 40 | 7 | 3 | | 13 | racer72 | 19 | 19 | 4 | 6 | ---
**Author:** ![Karen\_Lingel](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/karen_lingel/32/18649_2.png) [@Karen\_Lingel](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Karen_Lingel)\ **Post date:** [November 12, 2022, 3:45am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2022-senate-confidence-pool-contest/973042/93 "2022-11-12T03:45:06Z")
Side bets (at the risk of inflaming Pit Thread Guy): when will this contest be finally decided? I say Dec 8, 4:53pm ET. ---
**Author:** ![Lance\_Turbo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lance_turbo/32/6156_2.png) [@Lance\_Turbo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Lance_Turbo)\ **Post date:** [November 12, 2022, 3:46am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2022-senate-confidence-pool-contest/973042/94 "2022-11-12T03:46:18Z")
RNG again? ---
**Author:** ![Karen\_Lingel](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/karen_lingel/32/18649_2.png) [@Karen\_Lingel](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Karen_Lingel)\ **Post date:** [November 12, 2022, 3:52am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2022-senate-confidence-pool-contest/973042/95 "2022-11-12T03:52:12Z")
LOL, no. This time I very carefully made a prediction. ---
**Author:** ![Lance\_Turbo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lance_turbo/32/6156_2.png) [@Lance\_Turbo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Lance_Turbo)\ **Post date:** [November 13, 2022, 2:33am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2022-senate-confidence-pool-contest/973042/96 "2022-11-13T02:33:06Z")
CCM wins reelection! > | Rank | Name | Score | Max | Hits | Misses | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 1 | DSeid | 52 | 54 | 8 | 1 | | 1 | Jas09 | 52 | 54 | 8 | 1 | | 3 | Hawkeyeop | 51 | 55 | 9 | 0 | | 3 | Railer13 | 51 | 54 | 8 | 1 | | 5 | Karen\_Lingel | 49 | 54 | 8 | 1 | | 5 | BobLibDem | 49 | 51 | 7 | 2 | | 5 | Kolak\_of\_Twilo | 49 | 51 | 8 | 1 | | 8 | JKellyMap | 48 | 54 | 8 | 1 | | 9 | SlipperyPete | 46 | 51 | 8 | 1 | | 9 | flurb | 46 | 49 | 7 | 2 | | 11 | Lance\_Turbo | 44 | 47 | 6 | 3 | | 12 | smitty300 | 40 | 45 | 5 | 4 | | 13 | racer72 | 20 | 24 | 5 | 4 | ---
**Author:** ![Lance\_Turbo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lance_turbo/32/6156_2.png) [@Lance\_Turbo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Lance_Turbo)\ **Post date:** [November 13, 2022, 2:37am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2022-senate-confidence-pool-contest/973042/97 "2022-11-13T02:37:48Z")
Only Georgia remains. It’s either @Hawkeyeop with a perfect score if Warnock wins or @Karen_Lingel with 54/55 if Walker wins. Georgia D | Rank | Name | Score | Max | Hits | Misses | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 1 | Hawkeyeop | 55 | 55 | 10 | 0 | | 2 | DSeid | 54 | 54 | 9 | 1 | | 2 | Jas09 | 54 | 54 | 9 | 1 | | 2 | JKellyMap | 54 | 54 | 9 | 1 | | 2 | Railer13 | 54 | 54 | 9 | 1 | | 6 | BobLibDem | 51 | 51 | 8 | 2 | | 6 | SlipperyPete | 51 | 51 | 9 | 1 | | 8 | Karen\_Lingel | 49 | 49 | 8 | 2 | | 8 | Kolak\_of\_Twilo | 49 | 49 | 8 | 2 | | 10 | flurb | 46 | 46 | 7 | 3 | | 11 | Lance\_Turbo | 44 | 44 | 6 | 4 | | 12 | smitty300 | 40 | 40 | 5 | 5 | | 13 | racer72 | 24 | 24 | 6 | 4 | Georgia R | Rank | Name | Score | Max | Hits | Misses | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 1 | Karen\_Lingel | 54 | 54 | 9 | 1 | | 2 | DSeid | 52 | 52 | 8 | 2 | | 2 | Jas09 | 52 | 52 | 8 | 2 | | 4 | Hawkeyeop | 51 | 51 | 9 | 1 | | 4 | Kolak\_of\_Twilo | 51 | 51 | 9 | 1 | | 4 | Railer13 | 51 | 51 | 8 | 2 | | 7 | BobLibDem | 49 | 49 | 7 | 3 | | 7 | flurb | 49 | 49 | 8 | 2 | | 9 | JKellyMap | 48 | 48 | 8 | 2 | | 10 | Lance\_Turbo | 47 | 47 | 7 | 3 | | 11 | SlipperyPete | 46 | 46 | 8 | 2 | | 12 | smitty300 | 45 | 45 | 6 | 4 | | 13 | racer72 | 20 | 20 | 5 | 5 | ---
**Author:** ![Karen\_Lingel](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/karen_lingel/32/18649_2.png) [@Karen\_Lingel](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Karen_Lingel)\ **Post date:** [November 13, 2022, 3:14am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2022-senate-confidence-pool-contest/973042/98 "2022-11-13T03:14:13Z")
Go, Hawkeyeop! ---
**Author:** ![Kolak\_of\_Twilo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/kolak_of_twilo/32/73_2.png) [@Kolak\_of\_Twilo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Kolak_of_Twilo)\ **Post date:** [November 13, 2022, 6:42am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2022-senate-confidence-pool-contest/973042/99 "2022-11-13T06:42:14Z")
Well fought but I couldn’t be more happy to lose. ---
**Author:** ![JKellyMap](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/jkellymap/32/15880_2.png) [@JKellyMap](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/JKellyMap)\ **Post date:** [November 13, 2022, 11:57am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2022-senate-confidence-pool-contest/973042/100 "2022-11-13T11:57:05Z")
Amen. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2022-senate-confidence-pool-contest/973042.md?page=4) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2022-senate-confidence-pool-contest/973042.md?page=6)