I spent some time this morning wading through the Wikipedia article on the next US Senate elections. It looks very favorable to the Democrats.
Let me try to explain why.
Thirty-four Seats are up this cycle. Twenty are held by Republicans. Twelve are held by Democrats. Two are vacant and will be filled by special elections next month.
Two Republicans (NC Burr & PA Toomey) have said they are retiring. In addition one, (WI Johnson) had previously said he would not seek reelection. No Democrats so far have said they are stepping down. It is too far out.
I think PA, then NC , then WI in that order are all in play to go to the Democrats.
But surely some additional senators will retire. We cannot be sure how many or who, but we can guess. Of the seats up for the 2022 election cycle, three senators are over eighty years old at the moment. Two are Republicans (AL Shelby & IA Grassley) and one is a Democrat (VT Leahy). Surely these guys are going to call it a day. I guess.
But none of these are in competitive states. We might expect their respective parties to win the seat for no net change.
Looking at the number who are (at the moment) over age 65, we get eight (of twenty) Republicans and five (of twelve) Democrats. Some of those will retire, but not too many.
After that, we get down to guesswork. But the math seems to favor the Democrats as there are simply more Republicans on the ballot in two years’ time. Further the Republicans have three retirements and two ninety-year olds who probably will not make it to election day. The Democrats only one guy that age.
Anyway, it is never too soon to register to vote.