# 2022 US Senate Races **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Created:** [October 6, 2020, 10:26am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2022-us-senate-races/922327 "2020-10-06T10:26:36Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 33
**Author:** ![hajario](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/hajario/32/171_2.png) [@hajario](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/hajario)\ **Post date:** [July 26, 2022, 11:37pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2022-us-senate-races/922327/642 "2022-07-26T23:37:10Z")
> [@hajario](#): > > FiveThirtyEight just came out with their forecast: > > GOP has a 54% chance of taking the Senate and an 87% percent chance of taking the House according to the models. I know that a lot can happen between now and November but if recent events didn’t move the needle, I don’t know what will. We are doomed. 538 now has the Dems with a 51% chance to keep the Senate and the GOP is down to an 84% chance of taking the House. Things are moving in the right direction. ---
**Author:** ![BobLibDem](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/boblibdem/32/3149_2.png) [@BobLibDem](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BobLibDem)\ **Post date:** [July 27, 2022, 1:59am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2022-us-senate-races/922327/643 "2022-07-27T01:59:40Z")
538’s forecasts seem to be a bit red-shifted. I looked just now and they had Herschel Walker at 56% to win that seat and Vance at 83% to win OH. I don’t see it. ---
**Author:** ![Lord\_Feldon](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lord_feldon/32/341_2.png) [@Lord\_Feldon](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Lord_Feldon)\ **Post date:** [July 27, 2022, 9:47am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2022-us-senate-races/922327/644 "2022-07-27T09:47:15Z")
Those are _good_ numbers for Democrats, though. Both are much lower than what should have been expected a year ago. ---
**Author:** ![flurb](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/f/51bf81/32.png) [@flurb](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/flurb)\ **Post date:** [July 27, 2022, 5:01pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2022-us-senate-races/922327/645 "2022-07-27T17:01:10Z")
It does look like the threat (promise?) of an Eric Greitens candidacy in Missouri is falling apart. As the one Republican who could maybe give Democrats a shot at the Senate seat in MO, the Republican establishment has come out swinging hard at him in advance of Tuesday’s primary. An anti-Greitens superPAC dumped millions of dollars on ads highlighting the charges of domestic abuse made by his ex-wife. He’s fallen into third place in recent polls after leading for months. Couldn’t happen to a shittier guy, but like I said he was the one guy who could give Democrats a shot or at least force Republicans to spend money shoring up another weak candidate. ---
**Author:** ![MikeF](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/45deac/32.png) [@MikeF](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/MikeF)\ **Post date:** [July 27, 2022, 6:13pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2022-us-senate-races/922327/646 "2022-07-27T18:13:25Z")
Yep. Hats off to whoever produced that spot. The guy is a complete fraud and snake oil salesman. ---
**Author:** ![N9IWP](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/n9iwp/32/3154_2.png) [@N9IWP](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/N9IWP)\ **Post date:** [July 30, 2022, 12:31pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2022-us-senate-races/922327/647 "2022-07-30T12:31:26Z")
Lots of activity this past week in Wisconsin. First Tom Nelson dropped out (ran out of money), then (surprising to me) Alex Lasry ( He has had a LOT of ads), and now Sarah Godlewski. So Mandela Barnes (Lt Gov) is going to be the Dem candidate. I saw my first MB commercial yesterday. (Note that I live in MN, but most of my TV stations are based in WI – though their antennas are in MN) (Actually my ABC station is physically in MN, but is definitely WI focused) Brian ---
**Author:** ![Red\_Wiggler](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/red_wiggler/32/13190_2.png) [@Red\_Wiggler](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Red_Wiggler)\ **Post date:** [July 30, 2022, 1:03pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2022-us-senate-races/922327/648 "2022-07-30T13:03:13Z")
Does Barnes have a chance? Because that would be a yuge pickup for the Dems. ---
**Author:** ![N9IWP](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/n9iwp/32/3154_2.png) [@N9IWP](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/N9IWP)\ **Post date:** [July 30, 2022, 1:25pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2022-us-senate-races/922327/649 "2022-07-30T13:25:21Z")
538 right now has Johnson at 68% chance of winning, but the odds are heading towards a closer race > **[2022 Senate Election Forecast](https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2022-election-forecast/senate/wisconsin/)** > > Latest forecasts and polls for the 2022 Senate elections from ABC News’s FiveThirtyEight Brian ---
**Author:** ![Elendil\_s\_Heir](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/7cd45c/32.png) [@Elendil\_s\_Heir](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Elendil_s_Heir)\ **Post date:** [August 1, 2022, 1:42pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2022-us-senate-races/922327/650 "2022-08-01T13:42:34Z")
Heheheheh. > **['Alarm bell': Oz’s struggles have GOP pitching alternate path to Senate takeover](https://www.politico.com/news/2022/07/29/alarm-bell-gop-donors-oz-00048747)** > > Republican officials outlined the Oz campaign's polling and financial troubles in recent meetings, emphasizing they can still win the Senate without Pennsylvania. ---
**Author:** ![flurb](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/f/51bf81/32.png) [@flurb](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/flurb)\ **Post date:** [August 1, 2022, 2:21pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2022-us-senate-races/922327/651 "2022-08-01T14:21:49Z")
I just love the box that Mitch McConnel is in trying to keep Republicans from nominating shitty Senate candidates. He knows that Oz, Hershel Walker, JD Vance and Blake Masters are poor-to-terrible candidates who could piss away winnable Senate races in what should be a very favorable midterm environment. But he couldn’t say anything about it during their primaries, because he’s so hated by the grassroots that it would probably end up helping these candidates. And now he has to pretend to be happy with them because they’re his only ticket back to the Majority Leader seat. ---
**Author:** ![medstar](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/f07891/32.png) [@medstar](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/medstar)\ **Post date:** [August 1, 2022, 3:29pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2022-us-senate-races/922327/652 "2022-08-01T15:29:07Z")
Wouldn’t it be a kick in the teeth for Moscow Mitch if someone else was elected Senate Majority Leader if the republicans gain the majority in November? ---
**Author:** ![Morgyn](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/morgyn/32/3041_2.png) [@Morgyn](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Morgyn)\ **Post date:** [August 1, 2022, 3:41pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2022-us-senate-races/922327/653 "2022-08-01T15:41:50Z")
We could conceivably get someone _worse_. Better for it not to be an issue in the first place. ---
**Author:** ![flurb](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/f/51bf81/32.png) [@flurb](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/flurb)\ **Post date:** [August 1, 2022, 3:48pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2022-us-senate-races/922327/654 "2022-08-01T15:48:25Z")
I’d be very surprised if Republicans take the Senate in the fall and don’t make Mitch Majority Leader. While there have been a couple Republican Senate candidates who’ve pledged not to vote for him for Majority Leader, he was unanimously elected by Senate Republicans to remain as their leader at the start of this Congress. ---
**Author:** ![Icarus](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/icarus/32/72_2.png) [@Icarus](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Icarus)\ **Post date:** [August 1, 2022, 4:26pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2022-us-senate-races/922327/655 "2022-08-01T16:26:13Z")
> [@flurb](#): > > While there have been a couple Republican Senate candidates who’ve pledged not to vote for him for Majority Leader, he was unanimously elected by Senate Republicans to remain as their leader at the start of this Congress. They may say that they don’t want him as Majority Leader in order to pander to their base of voters, but when the rubber meets the road they vote for him because they do want those plum committee assignments and getting their bills on the calendar. ---
**Author:** ![flurb](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/f/51bf81/32.png) [@flurb](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/flurb)\ **Post date:** [August 1, 2022, 4:59pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2022-us-senate-races/922327/656 "2022-08-01T16:59:58Z")
Say what you will about McConnel, but as Majority Leader he has always put his members’ electoral interests ahead of any larger political ambitions of his own or personal pride. He doesn’t really care if they bad mouth him on the campaign trail if that will help them get elected. All he cares about is growing the Senate Republican Caucus and he’ll take any position or adopt any strategy that will help his members get reelected. The same could NOT be said of Ted Cruz, Josh Hawley or most other Republican Senators who are thought of as potential Majority Leaders. A Majority Leader Cruz or Hawley would use the position as a platform to advance their own presidential ambitions, and the hell with whether that helps or hurts individual Republican Senators. That’s the other reason Mitch is secure – who do you replace him with? ---
**Author:** ![Elendil\_s\_Heir](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/7cd45c/32.png) [@Elendil\_s\_Heir](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Elendil_s_Heir)\ **Post date:** [August 1, 2022, 5:54pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2022-us-senate-races/922327/657 "2022-08-01T17:54:42Z")
As awful as he is, and he is certainly gawdawful, given the GOP Senate caucus I can easily imagine someone worse. ---
**Author:** ![flurb](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/f/51bf81/32.png) [@flurb](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/flurb)\ **Post date:** [August 2, 2022, 1:47am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2022-us-senate-races/922327/658 "2022-08-02T01:47:51Z")
Trump has announced that he is endorsing “Eric” in the Missouri Senate race – “Eric” being a name shared by two of the leading Republican candidates. Apparently, this is his too-cute way to endorse who he really wants to (Eric Greitens) while throwing a bone to the establishment (and leading in polls) candidate (state Attorney General Eric Schmitt). > **[Trump endorses ‘ERIC’ in Missouri primary, a name shared by rivals](https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2022/08/01/trump-greitens-missouri-senate/)** > > The former president’s unusual endorsement added more uncertainty to an already tumultuous race ---
**Author:** ![Kent\_Clark](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/kent_clark/32/105_2.png) [@Kent\_Clark](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Kent_Clark)\ **Post date:** [August 2, 2022, 3:05am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2022-us-senate-races/922327/659 "2022-08-02T03:05:59Z")
On top of that, there’s yet a _ **third** _ Eric - Eric McElroy - among the 21 candidates running for Senate in Missouri’s Republican primary. It would be a real hoot if he split the ERIC vote enough to have Rep. Vicky Hartzler squeak through as the actual nominee. ---
**Author:** ![Kolak\_of\_Twilo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/kolak_of_twilo/32/73_2.png) [@Kolak\_of\_Twilo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Kolak_of_Twilo)\ **Post date:** [August 2, 2022, 3:49am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2022-us-senate-races/922327/660 "2022-08-02T03:49:00Z")
Why do I think this brilliant bit of strategery doesn’t work out the way DJT expects it to work out? ---
**Author:** ![flurb](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/f/51bf81/32.png) [@flurb](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/flurb)\ **Post date:** [August 3, 2022, 2:08am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2022-us-senate-races/922327/661 "2022-08-03T02:08:45Z")
AP has called the Missouri Republican Senate primary for Eric Schmitt. Eliminates the outside chance of a Democratic pickup they might have had with Greitens. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2022-us-senate-races/922327.md?page=32) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2022-us-senate-races/922327.md?page=34)