# 2022 US Senate Races **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Created:** [October 6, 2020, 10:26am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2022-us-senate-races/922327 "2020-10-06T10:26:36Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 34
**Author:** ![Jackmannii](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/jackmannii/32/311_2.png) [@Jackmannii](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Jackmannii)\ **Post date:** [August 3, 2022, 1:07pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2022-us-senate-races/922327/662 "2022-08-03T13:07:21Z")
Like Rand Paul, whose positions are similar to McConnell’s, plus a heaping helping of antivax/conspiracy theory crazy sauce. ---
**Author:** ![flurb](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/f/51bf81/32.png) [@flurb](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/flurb)\ **Post date:** [August 3, 2022, 8:37pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2022-us-senate-races/922327/663 "2022-08-03T20:37:20Z")
Threatening people’s Social Security and Medicare benefits in the middle of a campaign is usually considered a disastrous move, even for Republicans. Ron Johnson don’t care. Ron Johnson don’t give a shit. > **[Sen. Johnson suggests ending Medicare, Social Security as mandatory spending...](https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/retirement/sen-johnson-suggests-ending-medicare-social-security-as-mandatory-spending-programs/ar-AA10gvaw?ocid=msedgdhp&pc=U531&cvid=f2525a14258544f48ece1a368ed1ead3)** > > Johnson said Medicare and Social Security benefits should instead be approved by Congress on an annual basis as discretionary spending. ---
**Author:** ![SwissMan](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/e79b87/32.png) [@SwissMan](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/SwissMan)\ **Post date:** [August 3, 2022, 11:08pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2022-us-senate-races/922327/664 "2022-08-03T23:08:37Z")
His Democratic opponent should include this in every single TV ad. ---
**Author:** ![Czarcasm](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/czarcasm/32/4050_2.png) [@Czarcasm](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Czarcasm)\ **Post date:** [August 3, 2022, 11:14pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2022-us-senate-races/922327/665 "2022-08-03T23:14:34Z")
> [@Velocity](#): > > Democrats will sweep both the House and Senate big time. Time to put feet back and relax. I’ve seen what happens after such predictions are made, and it ain’t pretty. Get your feet back on the ground and hit the pavement because, otherwise, “Oopsies! I guess I was wrong” won’t be accepted as an excuse any longer. ---
**Author:** ![JKellyMap](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/jkellymap/32/15880_2.png) [@JKellyMap](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/JKellyMap)\ **Post date:** [August 4, 2022, 12:16am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2022-us-senate-races/922327/666 "2022-08-04T00:16:38Z")
> [@flurb](#): > > Ron Johnson don’t care. Ron Johnson don’t give a shit. Wow. I don’t know a rail track could have a third rail AND a fourth one. ---
**Author:** ![Elendil\_s\_Heir](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/7cd45c/32.png) [@Elendil\_s\_Heir](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Elendil_s_Heir)\ **Post date:** [August 4, 2022, 4:02pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2022-us-senate-races/922327/667 "2022-08-04T16:02:56Z")
All of them with double electricity. ---
**Author:** ![Lance\_Turbo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lance_turbo/32/6156_2.png) [@Lance\_Turbo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Lance_Turbo)\ **Post date:** [August 15, 2022, 7:53pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2022-us-senate-races/922327/668 "2022-08-15T19:53:38Z")
> **[Senate G.O.P. Campaign Arm Slashes TV Ad Buys in Three States](https://www.nytimes.com/2022/08/15/us/politics/senate-gop-ad-wisconsin-pennsylvania-arizona.html)** > > In a sign that fund-raising trouble is taking a serious toll, a key political committee cancels ad plans in Arizona, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. Wisconsin?! That would be a dream come true. Here’s the 538 averages for AZ and PA… Arizona Kelly (D-inc) 51.1% (+10.2) Masters (R) 40.9% Pennsylvania Fetterman (D) 49.0% (+10.7) Oz (R) 38.3% . ---
**Author:** ![flurb](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/f/51bf81/32.png) [@flurb](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/flurb)\ **Post date:** [August 15, 2022, 10:10pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2022-us-senate-races/922327/669 "2022-08-15T22:10:45Z")
I could see the NRSC throwing AZ and PA overboard if the polling remains atrocious, but there’s no way they’re giving up on Ron Johnson. Unlike AZ and PA, he’s an incumbent and the NRSC would be loath to pull the plug on a sitting Senator. Plus, it’s unwarranted – polling has been sparse lately, but WI is within a couple points in every previous poll. They’re probably just shifting money around and coordinating with Republican SuperPACs to pick up the difference. No, that can’t be it because that would be illegal. . . BWAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA! ---
**Author:** ![dalej42](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/67e7ee/32.png) [@dalej42](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/dalej42)\ **Post date:** [August 15, 2022, 10:47pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2022-us-senate-races/922327/670 "2022-08-15T22:47:14Z")
This tweet from the NRSC and a verified Twitter account seems to indicate that it’s just an accounting measure. Makes sense to me, I can’t imagine triaging any of those states when it’s not even Labor Day. > > > Shane Goldmacher @ShaneGoldmacher ---
**Author:** ![Elendil\_s\_Heir](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/7cd45c/32.png) [@Elendil\_s\_Heir](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Elendil_s_Heir)\ **Post date:** [August 16, 2022, 4:58pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2022-us-senate-races/922327/671 "2022-08-16T16:58:58Z")
A guy can hope… ---
**Author:** ![flurb](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/f/51bf81/32.png) [@flurb](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/flurb)\ **Post date:** [August 16, 2022, 8:47pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2022-us-senate-races/922327/672 "2022-08-16T20:47:41Z")
With all of the caveats about there still being a long way to go until November and Republicans still have a mountain of cash that they will unload on advertising, things are looking promising for Senate Democrats. The most hopeful sign for me is that Republican-leaning seats that looked like they would be a reach for Democrats in North Carolina, Ohio and Florida are now polling even or a slight D lead. It may not last, but at the very least it will force Republicans to spend more money defending seats that they would rather use on offense in Georgia, Arizona, and Nevada. ---
**Author:** ![Happy\_Lendervedder](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/happy_lendervedder/32/8488_2.png) [@Happy\_Lendervedder](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Happy_Lendervedder)\ **Post date:** [August 17, 2022, 8:46pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2022-us-senate-races/922327/673 "2022-08-17T20:46:22Z")
I am just so freaking flabbergasted that a mentally disturbed, dim-witted and repugnant candidate like Herschel Walker is slightly ahead of a gem of a Senator like Raphael Warnock, according to 538’s Deluxe model. > **[2022 Senate Election Forecast](https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2022-election-forecast/senate/georgia/)** > > Latest forecasts and polls for the 2022 Senate elections from ABC News’s FiveThirtyEight ---
**Author:** ![rocking\_chair](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/rocking_chair/32/2918_2.png) [@rocking\_chair](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/rocking_chair)\ **Post date:** [August 17, 2022, 9:59pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2022-us-senate-races/922327/674 "2022-08-17T21:59:40Z")
Plouffe on msnbc just called dr. Oz a “world class tool” during a discussion on the crudité ad. Good grief. I agree, I don’t know how warnock isn’t blasting walker out of the water. The good air/bad air thing should have been a huge points loser. ---
**Author:** ![squidfood](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/a87d85/32.png) [@squidfood](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/squidfood)\ **Post date:** [August 17, 2022, 10:31pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2022-us-senate-races/922327/675 "2022-08-17T22:31:08Z")
> [@Happy\_Lendervedder](#): > > I am just so freaking flabbergasted that a mentally disturbed, dim-witted and repugnant candidate like Herschel Walker is slightly ahead of a gem of a Senator like Raphael Warnock, according to 538’s Deluxe model. Note that the actual polling averages on that page seem to be pro-Warnock (looking around Warnock+3 average but up to Warnock+10) - a lot of the current aheadness in probability is due to the Deluxe model’s weight on fundamentals from past elections. edit: Their weighted average on polls is Warnock + 1.7. ---
**Author:** ![MikeF](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/45deac/32.png) [@MikeF](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/MikeF)\ **Post date:** [August 18, 2022, 2:55pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2022-us-senate-races/922327/676 "2022-08-18T14:55:51Z")
Oz is a joke candidate and everyone other than him knows it. I don’t know too much about Fetterman but I’m pretty sure people from Pittsburgh don’t look kindly upon wealthy outsiders coming in and posing as one of them. Next, Oz will be complaining about how hard it is to find reasonably priced caviar at McWendys. ---
**Author:** ![flurb](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/f/51bf81/32.png) [@flurb](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/flurb)\ **Post date:** [August 18, 2022, 10:12pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2022-us-senate-races/922327/677 "2022-08-18T22:12:14Z")
A Marquette University poll has Democrat Mandela Barnes up by seven points over incumbent GOP Senator Ron Johnson in Wisconsin. > **[Barnes tops Johnson by 7 points in Wisconsin Senate race: poll](https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/3605567-barnes-tops-johnson-by-7-points-in-wisconsin-senate-race-poll/)** > > Wisconsin Lt. Gov. Mandela Barnes (D) leads incumbent Sen. Ron Johnson (R) by 7 percentage points in their race for Johnson’s seat, according to a poll from Marquette University Law School re… ---
**Author:** ![N9IWP](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/n9iwp/32/3154_2.png) [@N9IWP](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/N9IWP)\ **Post date:** [August 18, 2022, 10:40pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2022-us-senate-races/922327/678 "2022-08-18T22:40:08Z")
538 still has Johnson at 60% (was 68% July 30) Article (before latest poll) > **[Mandela Barnes May Be Democrats’ Best Hope For Flipping A Senate Seat](https://fivethirtyeight.com/videos/mandela-barnes-may-be-democrats-best-hope-for-flipping-a-senate-seat/)** > > One of the most competitive Senate races in November will be in Wisconsin, where the Democratic nominee, Mandela Barnes, who has taken some progressive stances … Brian (again, I live in MN, but get WI ads) ---
**Author:** ![dtilque](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/d6d6ee/32.png) [@dtilque](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/dtilque)\ **Post date:** [August 19, 2022, 7:18am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2022-us-senate-races/922327/679 "2022-08-19T07:18:36Z")
> [@N9IWP](#): > > 538 still has Johnson at 60% (was 68% July 30) 538 (and similar sites) do a weighted average of various polls. The weighting is for age, with newer ones being given more weight, but also their judgement of how good the polster is. Also, the poll results may be adjusted for bias. That is, some polsters tend to get results skewed towards one party or the other, so that is adjusted for. At any rate, a new poll or two is not going to drastically change their estimate of a race. ---
**Author:** ![flurb](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/f/51bf81/32.png) [@flurb](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/flurb)\ **Post date:** [August 19, 2022, 9:37pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2022-us-senate-races/922327/680 "2022-08-19T21:37:41Z")
Give Ron Johnson this much credit, he’s not just touching the third rail of American politics, he’s grabbing it with both hands and trying to strangle it into submission. [https://www.jsonline.com/story/news/2022/08/19/ron-johnson-urges-investing-social-security-trust-fund-stock-market/7834010001/?gnt-cfr=1](https://www.jsonline.com/story/news/2022/08/19/ron-johnson-urges-investing-social-security-trust-fund-stock-market/7834010001/?gnt-cfr=1) ---
**Author:** ![N9IWP](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/n9iwp/32/3154_2.png) [@N9IWP](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/N9IWP)\ **Post date:** [August 20, 2022, 3:30am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2022-us-senate-races/922327/681 "2022-08-20T03:30:48Z")
Note that 538’s default win% is based on their deluxe model, which takes into account more things than polls – Classic (see below) + expert’s ratings Polls alone has 61 % chance of Barnes winning. Classic Model is 51/49 Johnson (based on polls, fundraising, past voting patterns and more) Brian (note that all recent polls are Registered Voters – so like many elections turnout will be key) [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2022-us-senate-races/922327.md?page=33) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2022-us-senate-races/922327.md?page=35)