# 2022 US Senate Races **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Created:** [October 6, 2020, 10:26am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2022-us-senate-races/922327 "2020-10-06T10:26:36Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 35
**Author:** ![flurb](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/f/51bf81/32.png) [@flurb](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/flurb)\ **Post date:** [August 20, 2022, 10:31pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2022-us-senate-races/922327/682 "2022-08-20T22:31:44Z")
Republicans are NOT happy about what’s happening at the NRSC these days, with the Washington Post running an article full of shit-talking anonymous Republican campaign sources. Apparently, the committee raised $173 million but has burned through nearly all of it. A lot of the ire is focused on Sen. Rick Scott, who’s accused of using the committee more to prop up his own profile than boost Republican candidates. The irony is that Mitch McConnel’s SuperPAC is having to swoop in and make up the difference, spending tens of millions of dollars to support Republican Senate candidates – several of whom openly questioned his leadership during their primaries and certainly don’t want to be too closely associated with him. > **[‘It’s a rip-off’: GOP spending under fire as Senate hopefuls seek rescue](https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2022/08/19/gop-senate-rescue-midterms/)** > > A cash crunch at campaigns and the NRSC set off a panic as GOP candidates emerged from bruising primaries playing catch-up in polls and advertising. ---
**Author:** ![Lance\_Turbo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lance_turbo/32/6156_2.png) [@Lance\_Turbo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Lance_Turbo)\ **Post date:** [August 20, 2022, 11:20pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2022-us-senate-races/922327/683 "2022-08-20T23:20:40Z")
Grifters gotta grift. Why would anyone put Rick Scott in charge of their money? > **[Rick Scott's Fraud Settlement Resurfaces as Senate GOP Runs Low on Cash](https://www.newsweek.com/rick-scotts-fraud-settlement-resurfaces-senate-gop-runs-low-cash-1735418)** > > The GOP senator chairs the National Republican Senatorial Committee, which has nixed midterm ad bookings amid a reported money crunch. ---
**Author:** ![Elendil\_s\_Heir](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/7cd45c/32.png) [@Elendil\_s\_Heir](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Elendil_s_Heir)\ **Post date:** [August 21, 2022, 2:11am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2022-us-senate-races/922327/684 "2022-08-21T02:11:33Z")
What could possibly go wrong? ---
**Author:** ![Elendil\_s\_Heir](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/7cd45c/32.png) [@Elendil\_s\_Heir](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Elendil_s_Heir)\ **Post date:** [August 22, 2022, 1:10pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2022-us-senate-races/922327/685 "2022-08-22T13:10:32Z")
Better yet: > **[Mitch McConnell is right. Senate Republicans have a candidate problem. | CNN...](https://www.cnn.com/2022/08/20/politics/senate-midterm-election-mitch-mcconnell-facebook/index.html)** > > We've become used to displays of braggadocio by politicians (see former President Donald Trump). That's why it's notable when a politician admits that the political winds might not be going their way. ---
**Author:** ![Lance\_Turbo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lance_turbo/32/6156_2.png) [@Lance\_Turbo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Lance_Turbo)\ **Post date:** [August 22, 2022, 5:10pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2022-us-senate-races/922327/686 "2022-08-22T17:10:03Z")
Here’s a slope chart that compares the debiased PredictIt model to 538’s deluxe model for 2022 senate races of interest. They are aligned for the most part with 538 bunched up toward the middle a bit more than PredictIt. My opinion is that this shows a small flaw in 538 model. E.g. 14.7% chance for the dems to win Florida, and 36.6% to win NC are way too high. [![Google Photos](https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/HPKpwp_I25CPOndh22zf7wBepB8N7WfSIhx0-5QRVTZzYtHIh7w5c_KPrRrhyUfH2SAoFvwc0s_MrDOhbzrbTY6t1hJUBt7DHVqlM3AxvXh32r7NEXEOUL428gXwgkKieeW5U70dtA=w267-h279-p-k "New item by K S") ](https://photos.app.goo.gl/rUd6aRMNZvJWMAcZ9) ETA: Discourse is doing quite a bit of cropping on that image. Click in to see it better. It’s hosted at [photos.google.com](http://photos.google.com) not something sketchy. ---
**Author:** ![JKellyMap](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/jkellymap/32/15880_2.png) [@JKellyMap](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/JKellyMap)\ **Post date:** [August 23, 2022, 1:43am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2022-us-senate-races/922327/687 "2022-08-23T01:43:30Z")
Uh oh — just yesterday I donated a significant sum to Beasley (the NC Dem), based on the 538 model’s optimism that she has a reasonable chance of winning. (I’m not an NC resident). (My other out-of-state donation was to the New Hampshire Dem — what’s her name again? Something Arabic sounding, I think through her husband’s parentage.) ---
**Author:** ![flurb](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/f/51bf81/32.png) [@flurb](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/flurb)\ **Post date:** [August 23, 2022, 2:04am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2022-us-senate-races/922327/688 "2022-08-23T02:04:53Z")
But 1-in-3 IS a reasonable chance of winning. And your donation helps (in a small way) improve those odds. ---
**Author:** ![Elendil\_s\_Heir](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/7cd45c/32.png) [@Elendil\_s\_Heir](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Elendil_s_Heir)\ **Post date:** [August 23, 2022, 4:05am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2022-us-senate-races/922327/689 "2022-08-23T04:05:06Z")
> [@JKellyMap](#): > > (My other out-of-state donation was to the New Hampshire Dem — what’s her name again? Something Arabic sounding, I think through her husband’s parentage.) Maggie Hassan? ---
**Author:** ![JKellyMap](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/jkellymap/32/15880_2.png) [@JKellyMap](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/JKellyMap)\ **Post date:** [August 23, 2022, 11:40am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2022-us-senate-races/922327/690 "2022-08-23T11:40:44Z")
Right. But another poster suggested that the actual odds are much lower — that Politico’s model may be more accurate than 538s, and Politico currently has her (Beasley) around 20%. Still worth supporting a little financially, arguably. ---
**Author:** ![JKellyMap](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/jkellymap/32/15880_2.png) [@JKellyMap](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/JKellyMap)\ **Post date:** [August 23, 2022, 11:44am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2022-us-senate-races/922327/691 "2022-08-23T11:44:15Z")
> [@Elendil\_s\_Heir](#): > > Maggie Hassan? That’s the one. Could end up being an important race (but, to me, nothing is as important - nor as nail-bitingly close, according to recent polls — as Mandela Barnes vs. that traitorous idiot Ron Johnson, in Wisconsin). ---
**Author:** ![not\_what\_you\_d\_expect](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/not_what_you_d_expect/32/3246_2.png) [@not\_what\_you\_d\_expect](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/not_what_you_d_expect)\ **Post date:** [August 23, 2022, 11:57am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2022-us-senate-races/922327/692 "2022-08-23T11:57:01Z")
He was only traitorous for a couple of seconds! It’s possible he’s been an idiot for a bit longer… ---
**Author:** ![Elendil\_s\_Heir](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/7cd45c/32.png) [@Elendil\_s\_Heir](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Elendil_s_Heir)\ **Post date:** [August 23, 2022, 3:55pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2022-us-senate-races/922327/693 "2022-08-23T15:55:47Z")
And this guy is taking a page from the _Ronald Reagan Book of Environmentalism_: > **[Herschel Walker knocks new health care and climate law: 'Don't we have enough...](https://www.cnn.com/2022/08/23/politics/herschel-walker-criticizes-climate-law/index.html)** > > Herschel Walker, the Republican Senate nominee in Georgia, criticized the spending provisions in the newly passed health care and climate law, including money allocated for an urban forestry program which he dismissed as unnecessary. ---
**Author:** ![romansperson](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/romansperson/32/17100_2.png) [@romansperson](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/romansperson)\ **Post date:** [August 23, 2022, 7:30pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2022-us-senate-races/922327/694 "2022-08-23T19:30:32Z")
> [@JKellyMap](#): > > Right. But another poster suggested that the actual odds are much lower — that Politico’s model may be more accurate than 538s, and Politico currently has her (Beasley) around 20%. Still worth supporting a little financially, arguably. I live in North Carolina and on the local news last night they cited a poll that showed Beasley and Budd tied at ~42% each with the rest undecided. I think it will be a very tight race. ---
**Author:** ![JKellyMap](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/jkellymap/32/15880_2.png) [@JKellyMap](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/JKellyMap)\ **Post date:** [August 23, 2022, 11:05pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2022-us-senate-races/922327/695 "2022-08-23T23:05:42Z")
> [@romansperson](#): > > I live in North Carolina and on the local news last night they cited a poll that showed Beasley and Budd tied at ~42% each with the rest undecided. I think it will be a very tight race. Yay!! ---
**Author:** ![flurb](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/f/51bf81/32.png) [@flurb](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/flurb)\ **Post date:** [August 26, 2022, 9:21pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2022-us-senate-races/922327/696 "2022-08-26T21:21:49Z")
The major super PAC supporting Republican Senate candidates has cut its spending on Blake Masters in Arizona, cancelling $8 million in advertising. Republicans’ own polling must be telling them they’re in deep shit for them to already be casting aside should-be-competitive states like AZ and PA and focusing resources on should-be-in-the-bag states like OH. > **[Republican super PAC cuts ad buy in Arizona Senate race](https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2022/08/26/arizona-senate-republicans-masters/)** > > The Senate Leadership Fund, a Republican Super PAC, cut its ad buy in Arizona, a pullback from one of the most contested states that suggested concern about GOP nominee Blake Masters ---
**Author:** ![Lance\_Turbo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lance_turbo/32/6156_2.png) [@Lance\_Turbo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Lance_Turbo)\ **Post date:** [August 28, 2022, 7:47pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2022-us-senate-races/922327/697 "2022-08-28T19:47:13Z")
Slight improvement since last week. [![Google Photos](https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/ZuvZfuUzLSCSka1fBND3xkCrbqLzguWhLBcz5v0YJOCdME5zCzPcWaXchGnMIottY831lsOUPT0mLhvmonY3b96rkZz1PUZXvyNAHNfBBjJzvUMvLCrocbZDSBXqivWHnB7kqOEaJA=w478-h301-p-k "New item by K S") ](https://photos.app.goo.gl/L1AUjkTxG3siRsrA6) PredictIt and 538 are still mostly aligned. North Carolina and Georgia are where they differ the most. Interestingly in opposite directions. [![Google Photos](https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/fsSeG-9smh3kCjdbR266nZb7GvsJ_sIMhzTSdhrFURAk9dwFkQGKCxcdzag3Ps0UPHUUFu8SlZlXM0PM2QZZ7FBJuMjP_ZauoEqN7sl4W4LqVfY9HJ3osAni034yhMox0tXZAhuGsQ=w397-h315-p-k "New item by K S") ](https://photos.app.goo.gl/7srt5fix4uxbjaAm6) ---
**Author:** ![Lance\_Turbo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lance_turbo/32/6156_2.png) [@Lance\_Turbo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Lance_Turbo)\ **Post date:** [August 28, 2022, 7:53pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2022-us-senate-races/922327/698 "2022-08-28T19:53:03Z")
If one were looking to make a donation… One of Georgia or Nevada results in blue senate control. Both of them gets 51 seats. The 52nd seat, a.k.a. Manchin and Sinema are irrelevant, is probably Wisconsin. ---
**Author:** ![k9bfriender](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/k9bfriender/32/3283_2.png) [@k9bfriender](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/k9bfriender)\ **Post date:** [August 28, 2022, 8:03pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2022-us-senate-races/922327/699 "2022-08-28T20:03:56Z")
> [@flurb](#): > > should-be-in-the-bag states like OH. I’m feeling more optimistic about this one. [538](https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/senate/2022/ohio/) has Tim Ryan leading a bit, but more importantly, my mother, who voted for Trump, says she is going to vote for him over Vance. ---
**Author:** ![Lance\_Turbo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lance_turbo/32/6156_2.png) [@Lance\_Turbo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Lance_Turbo)\ **Post date:** [August 28, 2022, 10:00pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2022-us-senate-races/922327/700 "2022-08-28T22:00:17Z")
> [@k9bfriender](#): > > [538](https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/senate/2022/ohio/) has Tim Ryan leading a bit That’s just the polling average. 538 has it three to one Vance, but things are trending in Ryan’s direction. > **[2022 Senate Election Forecast](https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2022-election-forecast/senate/ohio/)** > > Latest forecasts and polls for the 2022 Senate elections from ABC News’s FiveThirtyEight ---
**Author:** ![JKellyMap](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/jkellymap/32/15880_2.png) [@JKellyMap](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/JKellyMap)\ **Post date:** [August 29, 2022, 1:52am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2022-us-senate-races/922327/701 "2022-08-29T01:52:42Z")
I told you! > **[In New Hampshire, Republicans Weigh Another Hard-Right Candidate](https://www.nytimes.com/2022/08/28/us/politics/don-buldoc-new-hampshire.html?searchResultPosition=1)** > > Don Bolduc, a retired Army general, has played to the Republican base and is leading in polls to take on Senator Maggie Hassan, who is viewed as vulnerable in November. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2022-us-senate-races/922327.md?page=34) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2022-us-senate-races/922327.md?page=36)