# 2022 US Senate Races **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Created:** [October 6, 2020, 10:26am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2022-us-senate-races/922327 "2020-10-06T10:26:36Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 4
**Author:** ![Elendil\_s\_Heir](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/7cd45c/32.png) [@Elendil\_s\_Heir](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Elendil_s_Heir)\ **Post date:** [March 3, 2021, 5:46pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2022-us-senate-races/922327/62 "2021-03-03T17:46:43Z")
> **[The 10 Senate seats most likely to flip in 2022 | CNN Politics](https://www.cnn.com/2021/03/03/politics/2022-senate-race-rankings/index.html)** > > Senate elections typically happen only every two years -- except sometimes they're three years in a row. ---
**Author:** ![Lance\_Turbo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lance_turbo/32/6156_2.png) [@Lance\_Turbo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Lance_Turbo)\ **Post date:** [March 5, 2021, 3:02am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2022-us-senate-races/922327/63 "2021-03-05T03:02:34Z")
The way too early PredictIt derived 2020 senate thermometer… [![Google Photos](https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/XldKwYg5_uPyq552devRBZ9qSIjjqfIVBIlJhf5rJw2GR9pQYk2Ft_IW_3VBNnWIAj54aOXtCwzCAHuQ4EtHOeeRFsWtZeRqu8mx5bDVxVpQ4g7NacZAl38MGn3MazpLtSYkO5SyQA=w370-h193-p-k "New item by K S") ](https://photos.app.goo.gl/VZTkeLYGJvUnLQvP7) Key races from most likely to least likely D: NV 78.9% AZ 69.6% PA 67.4% NH 64.0% GA 54.6% WI 44.3% NC 34.9% OH 12.6% FL 11.0% ---
**Author:** ![Lance\_Turbo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lance_turbo/32/6156_2.png) [@Lance\_Turbo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Lance_Turbo)\ **Post date:** [March 5, 2021, 3:14am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2022-us-senate-races/922327/64 "2021-03-05T03:14:16Z")
Aargh… 2022. ---
**Author:** ![Red\_Wiggler](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/red_wiggler/32/13190_2.png) [@Red\_Wiggler](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Red_Wiggler)\ **Post date:** [March 5, 2021, 12:22pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2022-us-senate-races/922327/65 "2021-03-05T12:22:59Z")
If the above favorites all win, that’s only a gain of one seat. An improvement, still. I think a good candidate can win Wisconsin, though. ---
**Author:** ![FlikTheBlue](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/fliktheblue/32/10972_2.png) [@FlikTheBlue](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/FlikTheBlue)\ **Post date:** [March 5, 2021, 1:00pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2022-us-senate-races/922327/66 "2021-03-05T13:00:05Z")
I can understand Kelly and Warnock potentially having tough races, but it sucks to see Nevada and New Hampshire on the list as being that close. Are Cortez-Masto and Hassan really in that much trouble? ---
**Author:** ![Lance\_Turbo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lance_turbo/32/6156_2.png) [@Lance\_Turbo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Lance_Turbo)\ **Post date:** [March 5, 2021, 2:16pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2022-us-senate-races/922327/67 "2021-03-05T14:16:57Z")
We’re way far out so wouldn’t be too worried yet, but both Cortez-Masto and Hassan won their seats with less than 50% of the vote in 2016. ---
**Author:** ![Elendil\_s\_Heir](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/7cd45c/32.png) [@Elendil\_s\_Heir](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Elendil_s_Heir)\ **Post date:** [March 5, 2021, 3:22pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2022-us-senate-races/922327/68 "2021-03-05T15:22:42Z")
And in North Carolina: [Another Trump on the ballot? Lara Trump eyes Senate seat](https://www.aol.com/news/another-trump-ballot-lara-trump-172917098-190650493.html) ---
**Author:** ![Lord\_Feldon](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lord_feldon/32/341_2.png) [@Lord\_Feldon](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Lord_Feldon)\ **Post date:** [March 5, 2021, 3:39pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2022-us-senate-races/922327/69 "2021-03-05T15:39:29Z")
> [@FlikTheBlue](#): > > I can understand Kelly and Warnock potentially having tough races, but it sucks to see Nevada and New Hampshire on the list as being that close. Are Cortez-Masto and Hassan really in that much trouble? I actually think that list is being kind of rosy about Nevada. Nevada was a Republican-leaning state in 2020 relative to the national popular vote, incumbency advantage is not what it used to be, and correlation between presidential and senate elections is on the rise. In a 50-50 national environment, which would be a historic landslide victory for Democrats relative to usual midterm trends (the second-best midterm for the incumbent party since 1978, I believe), I would expect Catherine Cortez Masto to lose against a generic Republican. Of course, candidate quality still matters (though not as much as it did even a decade ago) and Nevada Republicans do have a history of nominating lunatics in high-stakes Senate elections; Nevada has also been hit especially hard by the covid economy, so a good recovery could especially benefit Democrats there. The fundamentals are better in New Hampshire, but Maggie Hassan’s approval is not so great and the very popular Republican governor might choose to run against her. The saving grace there is that New Hampshire’s governor has a two-year term, so he has to choose between the jobs and he might well choose to stay governor instead. ---
**Author:** ![Lance\_Turbo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lance_turbo/32/6156_2.png) [@Lance\_Turbo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Lance_Turbo)\ **Post date:** [March 8, 2021, 4:17pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2022-us-senate-races/922327/70 "2021-03-08T16:17:45Z")
[Roy Blunt won’t run for Senate seat in 2022](https://thehill.com/homenews/senate/542085-roy-blunt-wont-run-for-senate-seat-in-2022) It’s a long shot for a dem pick up, but until we know the candidates it’s certainly worth some idle speculation. Blunt only beat Jason Kander by about 3% (~78k votes) in 2016 while Trump beat Clinton by almost 20% (\>500k votes) that year. ---
**Author:** ![Lance\_Turbo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lance_turbo/32/6156_2.png) [@Lance\_Turbo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Lance_Turbo)\ **Post date:** [March 8, 2021, 5:11pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2022-us-senate-races/922327/71 "2021-03-08T17:11:40Z")
FWIW, Kander has indicated that he is not running for Blunt’s seat in a Tweet this morning. > ---
**Author:** ![Elendil\_s\_Heir](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/7cd45c/32.png) [@Elendil\_s\_Heir](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Elendil_s_Heir)\ **Post date:** [March 8, 2021, 5:19pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2022-us-senate-races/922327/72 "2021-03-08T17:19:35Z")
Here’s CNN on the Blunt retirement: > **[GOP Sen. Roy Blunt announces he will not run for reelection | CNN Politics](https://www.cnn.com/2021/03/08/politics/blunt-not-running-reelection/index.html)** > > Sen. Roy Blunt of Missouri, a member of GOP leadership, announced Monday that he will not run for reelection, the latest Republican senator to announce he's not running next year. And see: > **[Georgia Senate approves sweeping election bill that would repeal no-excuse...](https://www.cnn.com/2021/03/08/politics/georgia-senate-no-excuse-absentee-voting/index.html)** > > Georgia's state Senate on Monday passed an election bill that would repeal no-excuse absentee voting, among other sweeping changes in the critical swing state. ---
**Author:** ![flurb](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/f/51bf81/32.png) [@flurb](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/flurb)\ **Post date:** [March 8, 2021, 5:20pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2022-us-senate-races/922327/73 "2021-03-08T17:20:00Z")
What’s Todd Akin up to these days? I think the only way Dems have a shot is if the MO GOP nominate someone of his ilk again. Sadly, though, talk about “legitimate rape” may not be as disqualifying in a post-Trump world. ---
**Author:** ![Kent\_Clark](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/kent_clark/32/105_2.png) [@Kent\_Clark](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Kent_Clark)\ **Post date:** [March 8, 2021, 5:40pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2022-us-senate-races/922327/74 "2021-03-08T17:40:26Z")
Akin is 73 years old and living comfortably. There’s a whole generation of ambitious Republicans stacked up in lower offices (four out of five statewide elected officials, and six out of eight members of Congress, not to mention a whole passel of term-limited state legislators) who want to move up. ---
**Author:** ![Elendil\_s\_Heir](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/7cd45c/32.png) [@Elendil\_s\_Heir](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Elendil_s_Heir)\ **Post date:** [March 9, 2021, 1:52am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2022-us-senate-races/922327/75 "2021-03-09T01:52:20Z")
Marco Rubio is up next year, but…: [Sunshine State dims for Dems amid election losses](https://www.aol.com/news/sunshine-state-dims-dems-amid-151941754-132403136.html) ---
**Author:** ![Elendil\_s\_Heir](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/7cd45c/32.png) [@Elendil\_s\_Heir](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Elendil_s_Heir)\ **Post date:** [March 9, 2021, 2:09pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2022-us-senate-races/922327/76 "2021-03-09T14:09:49Z")
The AP says: ['Bad news': Wave of GOP retirements signals battles ahead](https://www.aol.com/news/bad-news-wave-gop-retirements-051722193-101737546.html) ---
**Author:** ![Jas09](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/j/d07c76/32.png) [@Jas09](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Jas09)\ **Post date:** [March 9, 2021, 2:51pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2022-us-senate-races/922327/77 "2021-03-09T14:51:32Z")
> [@Lance\_Turbo](#): > > Blunt only beat Jason Kander by about 3% (~78k votes) in 2016 while Trump beat Clinton by almost 20% (\>500k votes) that year. And what a loss that was. I hope Kander is doing better with his depression and considers reentering politics once this Trump phase is beyond is. Sadly for MO it will be a battle between a ton of super-right candidates trying to outdo each other to carry the Trump mantle. Whoever survives that will win the seat - I think even Grietens would win the general if he gets out of the primary. ---
**Author:** ![ThelmaLou](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/thelmalou/32/390_2.png) [@ThelmaLou](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ThelmaLou)\ **Post date:** [March 9, 2021, 3:01pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2022-us-senate-races/922327/78 "2021-03-09T15:01:14Z")
> [@Elendil\_s\_Heir](#): > > The AP says: [‘Bad news’: Wave of GOP retirements signals battles ahead](https://www.aol.com/news/bad-news-wave-gop-retirements-051722193-101737546.html) That sounds like good news to me: > … > History suggests Republicans are still well-positioned to reclaim at least one chamber of Congress next year. But officials in both parties agree that the surge of GOP departures will make the Republicans’ challenge more difficult in the Senate. > > “Any time you lose an incumbent, it’s bad news,” said Republican strategist Rick Tyler, who briefly worked for failed Missouri Senate candidate Todd Akin nearly a decade ago. “Missouri’s not necessarily a safe state for Republicans. Democrats have won there.” > … ---
**Author:** ![Kolak\_of\_Twilo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/kolak_of_twilo/32/73_2.png) [@Kolak\_of\_Twilo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Kolak_of_Twilo)\ **Post date:** [March 9, 2021, 3:14pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2022-us-senate-races/922327/79 "2021-03-09T15:14:40Z")
Agreed **ThelmaLou**. At almost 2 years out I’m not ready to start the handwringing just yet. ---
**Author:** ![Elendil\_s\_Heir](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/7cd45c/32.png) [@Elendil\_s\_Heir](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Elendil_s_Heir)\ **Post date:** [March 10, 2021, 1:58pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2022-us-senate-races/922327/80 "2021-03-10T13:58:46Z")
> **[Trump's clash with GOP over using his name in fundraising ignites midterm...](https://www.cnn.com/2021/03/10/politics/trump-republican-fundraising-midterms/index.html)** > > Donald Trump's push to route his supporters' money through his own political apparatus, rather than traditional Republican campaign committees, has ignited fears among GOP donors and operatives that the former president could hamstring the party's... ---
**Author:** ![flurb](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/f/51bf81/32.png) [@flurb](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/flurb)\ **Post date:** [March 13, 2021, 7:13pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2022-us-senate-races/922327/81 "2021-03-13T19:13:20Z")
WI GOP Senator and general waste of carbon and oxygen Ron Johnson [told a conservative radio host](https://www.politico.com/news/2021/03/13/ron-johnson-black-lives-matter-antifa-capitol-riot-475727) that he never felt threatened by the Jan. 6 insurrectionists because he, “knew those are people that love this country, that truly respect law enforcement, would never do anything to break the law.” This of people who injured over 100 law enforcement officers, killing one with two more committing suicide. Whose actions led to the death of four others, including the shooting death of an insurrectionist trying to enter the Speaker’s lobby as members fled. BUT, he says, he would have been a “little concerned” if it had been BLM or “antifa” protestors entering the Capitol. Wisconsin, please do the right thing. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2022-us-senate-races/922327.md?page=3) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2022-us-senate-races/922327.md?page=5)