# 2022 US Senate Races **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Created:** [October 6, 2020, 10:26am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2022-us-senate-races/922327 "2020-10-06T10:26:36Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 43
**Author:** ![rocking\_chair](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/rocking_chair/32/2918_2.png) [@rocking\_chair](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/rocking_chair)\ **Post date:** [October 7, 2022, 1:14am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2022-us-senate-races/922327/842 "2022-10-07T01:14:51Z")
I have gotten an email and text from Levi Fetterman regarding this. Smart move that. [https://johnfetterman.com/meet/levi-fetterman/](https://johnfetterman.com/meet/levi-fetterman/) I do remember reading about the oz experiments in the primary months ago. ---
**Author:** ![aurora\_maire](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/aurora_maire/32/328_2.png) [@aurora\_maire](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/aurora_maire)\ **Post date:** [October 7, 2022, 2:02am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2022-us-senate-races/922327/843 "2022-10-07T02:02:37Z")
> [@k9bfriender](#): > > Of course, that assumes that you trust a liar. And that you are willing to be represented by someone who will very likely be ineffectual in office, and do nothing to advance the interests of his Georgia constituents. I get that the Republican voters want a puppet who will vote as his handlers tell him. What is hard to wrap my head around is that they are willing to accept the perception that a brain-damaged moron is the person who best represents them. What does that say about them? Yeah, I realize they aren’t thinking about that. I think someone should put out ads that say “Herschel Walker, admittedly violent and ignorant - yes, he is one of you!” I think Walker is probably the saddest example of the crazy Republican candidates. He is being used (maybe he knows that, maybe he doesn’t) in a blatant, pathetic and cynical way by a party who really doesn’t give two shits about him. > [@Tride](#): > > Remember her money quote (I’ve got no use for her but it was a thing of beauty): “Is that real math, or some sort of Republican math you use to make yourself feel better?” (From memory, probably not exact) I still have the Daily Show episode on my DVR where Jon showed this and other Fox News clips from that night. Bullshit mountain! It was awesome. ---
**Author:** ![Lance\_Turbo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lance_turbo/32/6156_2.png) [@Lance\_Turbo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Lance_Turbo)\ **Post date:** [October 7, 2022, 2:26am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2022-us-senate-races/922327/844 "2022-10-07T02:26:07Z")
> [@The\_Other\_Waldo\_Pepper](#): > > If, again, we’re talking about a single-issue voter, and the issue is ‘abortion’, and one guy is a real straight shooter who truthfully says he’ll vote the way you _don’t_ want, that’s — what, a one hundred percent chance of him leaving you shaking your head sadly, and zero of getting what you want? You’re the only one talking about single issue voters. We’re talking about swayable voters, and there are almost certainly voters that can be swayed by something like this. ---
**Author:** ![The\_Other\_Waldo\_Pepper](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/the_other_waldo_pepper/32/12370_2.png) [@The\_Other\_Waldo\_Pepper](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/The_Other_Waldo_Pepper)\ **Post date:** [October 7, 2022, 2:43am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2022-us-senate-races/922327/845 "2022-10-07T02:43:28Z")
> [@Lance\_Turbo](#): > > You’re the only one talking about single issue voters. That’s a good point. Thinking it over, let me put it differently: if someone out there was planning on voting for Walker until this week, but abortion is _so big a deal_ to them that this latest news could potentially sway them, then wouldn’t abortion be _as_ big a deal to them when they’re considering whether to vote against Warnock? So maybe it’s a little in both cases, or maybe it’s a lot in both cases, but — isn’t it pretty much the _same_ in both cases? (Sure, up to the point of being a single-issue voter; but also for any point short of that, for someone who was ready to vote for Walker a week ago?) ---
**Author:** ![Lance\_Turbo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lance_turbo/32/6156_2.png) [@Lance\_Turbo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Lance_Turbo)\ **Post date:** [October 7, 2022, 3:27am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2022-us-senate-races/922327/846 "2022-10-07T03:27:37Z")
> [@The\_Other\_Waldo\_Pepper](#): > > Thinking it over, let me put it differently: if someone out there was planning on voting for Walker until this week, but abortion is _so big a deal_ to them that this latest news could potentially sway them, then wouldn’t abortion be _as_ big a deal to them when they’re considering whether to vote against Warnock? You’re starting in the wrong place so you can’t understand what’s happening in some cases. Maybe it’s not about abortion. Not just not a big deal, but barely a consideration at all. Maybe someone is planning to vote Walker because they always vote Republican because their family always votes Republican. They don’t care for politics and don’t think deeply about the issues. This person has a balance of pros and cons in their head but Republican is such a big pro nothing else usually matters. Then some of Herschel’s negatives start coming to this person’s attention. When he speaks it’s a word salad. He doesn’t really seem up to the task mentally. Some people try to brush this off as the result of head trauma, but that’s the opposite of convincing. Head trauma is serious business and maybe he should dealing with that somewhere other than the senate. And then stuff about his past comes out. He held a gun to his ex-wife’s head and threatened to blow her brains out. He had a secret child, and another one. And one more? Not sure. Maybe these stories are running together. He says one of the biggest problems in America today is fatherless homes while secretly creating two, maybe more. He certainly wasn’t a good father to at least some of his kids. Definitely not a good husband either. Unfaithful and then some. At his point the scale is tilted slightly to the vote for Walker side but just barely. This person doesn’t know much about Warnock, he’s a Democrat, but also a pastor. He tells Dad jokes and seems a little nerdy. They normally wouldn’t consider voting for him, but he doesn’t seem too bad. He’s not Stacey Abrams who they are convinced is a very bad person, but would have a lot of trouble articulating why. Then the abortion news comes out. This voter personally says they oppose abortion when asked but doesn’t feel that strongly about it. The abortion aspect of this story isn’t a huge deal, but the hypocrisy is. He wants people to follow rules that he doesn’t follow. Also there’s the lying. He’s pretty clearly lying and acting like if he just sticks to his story he’ll get away with it. And finally Herschel’s son, who used to be on his side, is openly talking about the emotional and possibly physical damage Walker did to his family in response to this story. Walker has pretty clearly hurt a lot of people in his personal life. That’s enough to tip the scale the other way. They’ve heard enough about Walker that they will not vote for him. Maybe they’ll cast a vote for Warnock. He likes dogs and smiles a lot. But they are definitely not voting for Walker. If you try to analyze this starting with the assumption that all Walker voters are loyal to the Republican party and will act in a perfectly logical way with the goal of maximizing Republican power, you are dooming yourself to failure. That’s not how a lot of people are approaching this. You’re assuming a spherical cow, which might work in some idealized cases, but can lead you astray in the real world. ---
**Author:** ![The\_Other\_Waldo\_Pepper](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/the_other_waldo_pepper/32/12370_2.png) [@The\_Other\_Waldo\_Pepper](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/The_Other_Waldo_Pepper)\ **Post date:** [October 7, 2022, 3:51am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2022-us-senate-races/922327/847 "2022-10-07T03:51:09Z")
That’s an interesting take, and it does help me understand how such a voter could be swayed; much obliged. ---
**Author:** ![k9bfriender](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/k9bfriender/32/3283_2.png) [@k9bfriender](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/k9bfriender)\ **Post date:** [October 7, 2022, 2:00pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2022-us-senate-races/922327/848 "2022-10-07T14:00:22Z")
> [@Lance\_Turbo](#): > > If you try to analyze this starting with the assumption that all Walker voters are loyal to the Republican party and will act in a perfectly logical way with the goal of maximizing Republican power, you are dooming yourself to failure. It’s hard to say. We will see in November if @The_Other_Waldo_Pepper’s low opinion of Republican voters is correct. I’m of mixed minds, personally. The _single issue_ that I see is not about abortion, or guns, or immigration, it’s about sticking it to the libs. And I have seen Republicans willing to do massive damage to themselves and to the country every chance they get that they think it will cause their political opponents pain. ---
**Author:** ![Lance\_Turbo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lance_turbo/32/6156_2.png) [@Lance\_Turbo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Lance_Turbo)\ **Post date:** [October 7, 2022, 2:06pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2022-us-senate-races/922327/849 "2022-10-07T14:06:00Z")
I am pretty confident that Walker is going to underperform Kemp by quite a bit. Maybe it will be enough to make a difference. It will probably never be definitively know how much of that is due to this abortion story, or philandering, or race, or whatever. But for some voters, each of those things will be the thing that tipped the scales. ---
**Author:** ![Morgyn](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/morgyn/32/3041_2.png) [@Morgyn](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Morgyn)\ **Post date:** [October 7, 2022, 2:08pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2022-us-senate-races/922327/850 "2022-10-07T14:08:26Z")
I just wish Kemp were finding himself in more trouble, too. I cannot believe more Georgians are willing to vote for him than for Abrams. He’s made some spectacularly bad decisions. ---
**Author:** ![k9bfriender](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/k9bfriender/32/3283_2.png) [@k9bfriender](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/k9bfriender)\ **Post date:** [October 7, 2022, 2:14pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2022-us-senate-races/922327/851 "2022-10-07T14:14:48Z")
Yeah, but this is one of those instances where I find it less grating on my sanity to be pessimistic with a possibility of being pleasantly surprised than to be optimistic and be unpleasantly reminded of reality. ---
**Author:** ![Railer13](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/railer13/32/9742_2.png) [@Railer13](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Railer13)\ **Post date:** [October 7, 2022, 4:46pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2022-us-senate-races/922327/852 "2022-10-07T16:46:41Z")
> [@k9bfriender](#): > > this is one of those instances where I find it less grating on my sanity to be pessimistic with a possibility of being pleasantly surprised than to be optimistic and be unpleasantly reminded of reality Well said. Unfortunately, that’s been part of my psyche since about 1980 or so. ---
**Author:** ![flurb](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/f/51bf81/32.png) [@flurb](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/flurb)\ **Post date:** [October 7, 2022, 5:56pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2022-us-senate-races/922327/853 "2022-10-07T17:56:44Z")
Still a month to go, but it looks increasingly like control of the Senate is going to come down to outcomes in PA, NV and GA. For Republicans to take back the chamber, they need to either hold PA and flip one of the other two, or lose PA and flip both NV and GA. (Much as I hate to see it, Johnson’s efforts to drag Barnes through the mud seems to be paying off in WI.) Of the three, they may be best positioned in NV. Cortez Masto has trailed Laxalt (narrowly) in every recent poll. If the bottom falls out in GA (still too soon to tell), then it’s Oz or bust. (Although they might try to make a late play in NH which could be done relatively cheaply.) And I don’t write off their chances in PA at all – after a brutal summer, Oz has significantly narrowed his polling gap with Fetterman. So who’s gonna be the big winner at the end of the day? My money’s on Joe Manchin. ---
**Author:** ![silenus](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/silenus/32/166_2.png) [@silenus](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/silenus)\ **Post date:** [October 7, 2022, 6:35pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2022-us-senate-races/922327/854 "2022-10-07T18:35:04Z")
> [@flurb](#): > > And I don’t write off their chances in PA at all – after a brutal summer, Oz has significantly narrowed his polling gap with Fetterman. I don’t think there have been any polls since it came out that Oz is a puppy torturer. Let’s see if that moves the needle any. ---
**Author:** ![FlikTheBlue](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/fliktheblue/32/10972_2.png) [@FlikTheBlue](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/FlikTheBlue)\ **Post date:** [October 7, 2022, 6:44pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2022-us-senate-races/922327/855 "2022-10-07T18:44:09Z")
> [@flurb](#): > > Still a month to go, but it looks increasingly like control of the Senate is going to come down to outcomes in PA, NV and GA. For Republicans to take back the chamber, they need to either hold PA and flip one of the other two, or lose PA and flip both NV and GA. (Much as I hate to see it, Johnson’s efforts to drag Barnes through the mud seems to be paying off in WI.) > > Of the three, they may be best positioned in NV. Cortez Masto has trailed Laxalt (narrowly) in every recent poll. If the bottom falls out in GA (still too soon to tell), then it’s Oz or bust. (Although they might try to make a late play in NH which could be done relatively cheaply.) And I don’t write off their chances in PA at all – after a brutal summer, Oz has significantly narrowed his polling gap with Fetterman. > > So who’s gonna be the big winner at the end of the day? My money’s on Joe Manchin. Is Ron Johnson thought to be safe now? I thought Wisconsin was at least close enough to not be safe R. ---
**Author:** ![N9IWP](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/n9iwp/32/3154_2.png) [@N9IWP](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/N9IWP)\ **Post date:** [October 7, 2022, 6:52pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2022-us-senate-races/922327/856 "2022-10-07T18:52:33Z")
Some early polls had Barnes ahead. but recent ones favor Johnson. > **[2022 Senate Election Forecast](https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2022-election-forecast/senate/wisconsin/)** > > Latest forecasts and polls for the 2022 Senate elections from ABC News’s FiveThirtyEight I can tell you that there a a LOT of negative ads on WI TV, many from “Organization for goodness” or similar. (I have my finger on the mute button when watching – reminder that I live in MN but get mostly WI TV) Brian ---
**Author:** ![Lance\_Turbo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lance_turbo/32/6156_2.png) [@Lance\_Turbo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Lance_Turbo)\ **Post date:** [October 7, 2022, 8:29pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2022-us-senate-races/922327/857 "2022-10-07T20:29:29Z")
Wisconsin might not be ready for a black senator to go along with their LGBTQ senator. I can’t stand Ron Johnson. Here he is getting called out for faking being on the phone. [![](https://img.youtube.com/vi/-bY8YnJhqF0/maxresdefault.jpg "Ron Johnson Pretending to Be On Phone") ](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-bY8YnJhqF0) I hope there’s something they can charge him with for his involvement in the coup attempt. That’s a long shot though. He probably won’t be punished by the Justice Department or the voters. ---
**Author:** ![hajario](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/hajario/32/171_2.png) [@hajario](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/hajario)\ **Post date:** [October 7, 2022, 8:31pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2022-us-senate-races/922327/858 "2022-10-07T20:31:00Z")
> **[I don't care if Herschel Walker paid for an abortion or if he blew up the...](https://www.yahoo.com/news/dont-care-herschel-walker-paid-123431926.html)** > > GOP leaders will rally around the professed anti-abortion candidate because they want power. They wouldn't care if he blew up the planet Alderaan. "Like [other staunchly anti-abortion Republicans I have one thing to say about that: DON’T CARE! Dana Loesch, a conservative radio host and former spokesperson for the National Rifle Association, [put it best this week when she said]“I don’t care if Herschel Walker paid to abort endangered baby eagles. I want control of the Senate.” " ---
**Author:** ![Lance\_Turbo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lance_turbo/32/6156_2.png) [@Lance\_Turbo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Lance_Turbo)\ **Post date:** [October 7, 2022, 8:39pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2022-us-senate-races/922327/859 "2022-10-07T20:39:17Z")
There’s no doubt there’s going to be plenty of voters that will not care about the abortion Walker paid for or any of the other obviously things that should be disqualifying. I hope I never gave the impression that I didn’t think voters like that exist. Breaking: Republican voters, in general, are unprincipled and power hungry. ---
**Author:** ![hajario](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/hajario/32/171_2.png) [@hajario](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/hajario)\ **Post date:** [October 7, 2022, 9:05pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2022-us-senate-races/922327/860 "2022-10-07T21:05:04Z")
> **[Mehmet Oz Gives Speech Near Hitler's Car And Causes Furor On Twitter](https://www.huffpost.com/entry/mehmet-oz-speech-hitlers-car_n_634076aae4b0e376dc0192cd)** > > The Pennsylvania Senate candidate spoke in front of the vehicle, which sports a swastika on the side, during a fundraiser in California. Ozzie can’t help but step in dog shit. Cute pun in the title. ---
**Author:** ![JKellyMap](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/jkellymap/32/15880_2.png) [@JKellyMap](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/JKellyMap)\ **Post date:** [October 7, 2022, 10:08pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2022-us-senate-races/922327/861 "2022-10-07T22:08:36Z")
> [@flurb](#): > > Of the three, they may be best positioned in NV From your mouth to Nate’s ears: > **[Nevada Could Be Senate Republicans’ Ace In The Hole](https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/nevada-could-be-senate-republicans-ace-in-the-hole/)** > > On the surface, Nevada seems to validate the otherwise somewhat unsuccessful hypothesis of the 2002 book “The Emerging Democratic Majority.” Authors John Judis … [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2022-us-senate-races/922327.md?page=42) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2022-us-senate-races/922327.md?page=44)