# 2022 US Senate Races **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Created:** [October 6, 2020, 10:26am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2022-us-senate-races/922327 "2020-10-06T10:26:36Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 47
**Author:** ![Lance\_Turbo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lance_turbo/32/6156_2.png) [@Lance\_Turbo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Lance_Turbo)\ **Post date:** [October 15, 2022, 2:20am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2022-us-senate-races/922327/922 "2022-10-15T02:20:26Z")
> [@flurb](#): > > The latest [538 projection](https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2022-election-forecast/senate/?cid=rrpromo) has Democrats down to 65-35 to keep the Senate (from a peak of 71-29 in September). Cortez Masto went from 63 mid September to 50 now in Nevada. Fetterman went from 83 mid September to 71 now in Pennsylvania. Barnes went from 49 mid September to 30 now in Pennsylvania. A quick glance around doesn’t show anyone else with a big drop, but I could have missed something. ---
**Author:** ![JKellyMap](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/jkellymap/32/15880_2.png) [@JKellyMap](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/JKellyMap)\ **Post date:** [October 15, 2022, 4:06pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2022-us-senate-races/922327/923 "2022-10-15T16:06:24Z")
> [@Lance\_Turbo](#): > > Barnes went from 49 mid September to 30 now in Pennsylvania. Wisconsin (i know you meant this). ---
**Author:** ![Lance\_Turbo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lance_turbo/32/6156_2.png) [@Lance\_Turbo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Lance_Turbo)\ **Post date:** [October 15, 2022, 5:18pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2022-us-senate-races/922327/924 "2022-10-15T17:18:21Z")
Yes. Thank you. ---
**Author:** ![Bijou\_Drains](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/bijou_drains/32/2814_2.png) [@Bijou\_Drains](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Bijou_Drains)\ **Post date:** [October 16, 2022, 9:09pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2022-us-senate-races/922327/925 "2022-10-16T21:09:12Z")
NC Gov Dem Cooper could have won this year He knows his Lt. is whack job GOP guy so Cooper did not run and let him take over . Cooper may run in 2026 after his 2nd term is up and cannot run again for gov. ---
**Author:** ![JKellyMap](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/jkellymap/32/15880_2.png) [@JKellyMap](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/JKellyMap)\ **Post date:** [October 18, 2022, 2:09pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2022-us-senate-races/922327/926 "2022-10-18T14:09:59Z")
Helpful piece on whether it made sense for Democratic-favoring funds (donor money) to support far-right, election-denying Republican primary candidates. It seems this is likely to have helped the Democratic candidate (in the upcoming general election) in only one important case: the New Hampshire US Senate seat. If you have moral objections to your donations going to such strategies — or practical objections, that it contributes to the overall erosion of truth and trust in democracy — then you should hope the Democratic and allied money distributors have reached the same conclusion — that it’s rarely worth it. > **[Democrats Spent Loads Boosting Republicans They Thought Were Less Electable....](https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/democrats-spent-loads-boosting-republicans-they-thought-were-less-electable-will-it-pay-off/)** > > Throughout the primary season, Democrats caused a stir by involving themselves in Republican primary elections — often described as “meddling” — by spending mon… ---
**Author:** ![Elendil\_s\_Heir](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/7cd45c/32.png) [@Elendil\_s\_Heir](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Elendil_s_Heir)\ **Post date:** [October 18, 2022, 5:52pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2022-us-senate-races/922327/927 "2022-10-18T17:52:28Z")
The news from Ohio: > **[Five takeaways from the second Ohio Senate debate | CNN Politics](https://www.cnn.com/2022/10/17/politics/ohio-senate-debate-takeaways-tim-ryan-jd-vance/index.html)** > > The second Ohio Senate debate between Democrat Tim Ryan and Republican J.D. Vance was a personal and combative affair, with each candidate repeatedly questioning the other's character. And… Utah?!?: > **[Mike Lee tries to distance himself from Trump in Utah debate](https://www.aol.com/news/lee-mcmullin-scheduled-face-off-213221145-124757827.html)** > > Fending off attacks from his independent challenger, U.S. Sen. Mike Lee of Utah worked to distinguish himself from former President Donald Trump in a contentious debate Monday evening. Lee repeatedly pointed to his voting record and twice told the... ---
**Author:** ![flurb](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/f/51bf81/32.png) [@flurb](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/flurb)\ **Post date:** [October 19, 2022, 12:15am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2022-us-senate-races/922327/928 "2022-10-19T00:15:07Z")
> [@Elendil\_s\_Heir](#): > > And… Utah?!?: Evan McMullin has said that, if elected, he would not caucus with either party in the Senate. There are already two Independents in the Senate – Sanders and King – but both caucus with the Democrats. It could lead to some fascinating maneuvering if McMullin were to win, and the Senate was otherwise 50R-49D after the election. ---
**Author:** ![Elendil\_s\_Heir](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/7cd45c/32.png) [@Elendil\_s\_Heir](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Elendil_s_Heir)\ **Post date:** [October 19, 2022, 1:56pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2022-us-senate-races/922327/929 "2022-10-19T13:56:24Z")
Indeed it could. And see: > **[Donald Trump is actively hurting Republicans' Senate chances | CNN Politics](https://www.cnn.com/2022/10/18/politics/trump-odea-republican-senate-colorado/index.html)** > > For months now, Senate Republicans have been quietly optimistic about Joe O'Dea, their candidate running against Democratic Sen. Michael Bennet in Colorado. While in Florida: > **[Five takeaways from the Florida Senate debate | CNN Politics](https://www.cnn.com/2022/10/18/politics/rubio-demings-fla-senate-debate-takeaways/index.html)** > > Republican Sen. Marco Rubio and Democratic Rep. Val Demings demonstrated in Tuesday's Florida Senate debate why they are considered two of the brightest stars by their respective parties. ---
**Author:** ![Lance\_Turbo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lance_turbo/32/6156_2.png) [@Lance\_Turbo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Lance_Turbo)\ **Post date:** [October 19, 2022, 6:39pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2022-us-senate-races/922327/930 "2022-10-19T18:39:24Z")
Colorado is a top ten state in craft breweries per capita, and has strong ties to craft brewing going back to when Boulder resident, Charlie Papazian, founded what is today called the Brewers Association, an organization he served as president of from 1979 to 2016, and wrote The Complete Joy of Home Brewing in 1984. Many craft breweries today trace their roots back to this man, maybe most notably New Belgium. This is how Joe O’Dea drinks his beer… [https://twitter.com/iansilverii/status/1582015266069676032](https://twitter.com/iansilverii/status/1582015266069676032) Mich Ultra over ice. Joe O’Dea is wrong for Colorado. Michelob. Ultra. Over. Ice. It literally starts out almost OK and gets worse every word. In typical GOP fashion these days, like they are doing with Walker in Georgia, Republican senators are trying to get us to buy that obviously disqualifying behavior is like totally normal or whatever. Here’s Joni Ernst (R-IA) pretending that she likes ice in her beer. > 😜 ---
**Author:** ![Elendil\_s\_Heir](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/7cd45c/32.png) [@Elendil\_s\_Heir](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Elendil_s_Heir)\ **Post date:** [October 19, 2022, 8:33pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2022-us-senate-races/922327/931 "2022-10-19T20:33:41Z")
Burn the heretic! Meanwhile, in Iowa: > **[Midterm elections roundup: Iowa poll shows close Senate race](https://www.nbcnews.com/meet-the-press/meetthepressblog/midterm-elections-roundup-iowa-poll-shows-close-senate-race-rcna52512)** > > The new Des Moines Register/Mediacom Iowa Poll shows GOP Sen. Chuck Grassley leading by just 3 points. Just got a fundraising letter from the Dem in that race, a retired Navy admiral. ---
**Author:** ![Railer13](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/railer13/32/9742_2.png) [@Railer13](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Railer13)\ **Post date:** [October 19, 2022, 8:43pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2022-us-senate-races/922327/932 "2022-10-19T20:43:27Z")
> [@Elendil\_s\_Heir](#): > > Just got a fundraising letter from the Dem in that race, a retired Navy admiral. Grassley is one of the multitude of dinosaurs in Congress, who, regardless of their politics, need to leave the office. He’s 89, been a Senator since 1981, and was Representative for six years before that. Since he won’t retire, it’s up to voters to show him the door. ---
**Author:** ![Gyrate](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/gyrate/32/3588_2.png) [@Gyrate](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Gyrate)\ **Post date:** [October 20, 2022, 11:35am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2022-us-senate-races/922327/933 "2022-10-20T11:35:31Z")
> [@Lance\_Turbo](#): > > Michelob. Ultra. Over. Ice. It literally starts out almost OK and gets worse every word. On the one hand, the man knows what he likes and should be allowed to drink the beer he wants the way he wants. On the other hand, Michelob is already love-in-a-canoe before you add ice to dilute it further, and it is right to publicly mock the man for his choices here. ---
**Author:** ![JKellyMap](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/jkellymap/32/15880_2.png) [@JKellyMap](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/JKellyMap)\ **Post date:** [October 21, 2022, 12:08pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2022-us-senate-races/922327/934 "2022-10-21T12:08:40Z")
FiveThirtyEight down to Dems keeping Senate in 59 of every 100 model iterations. Barnes beats Johnson now (WI) in just 25 of 100 iterations. I have to say that Johnson’s negative ads against Barnes are effective. I’ve been bombarded with a ton of them for a couple months now (on TV and YouTube). Not many from Barnes, and they’re mainly defensive, not attacking Johnson for his awfulness (including his aborted attempt to disenfranchise the entire state). ---
**Author:** ![flurb](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/f/51bf81/32.png) [@flurb](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/flurb)\ **Post date:** [October 21, 2022, 2:25pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2022-us-senate-races/922327/935 "2022-10-21T14:25:35Z")
> [@JKellyMap](#): > > FiveThirtyEight down to Dems keeping Senate in 59 of every 100 model iterations. 58-42 as of an hour ago. It’s like a fucking countdown to Armageddon. ---
**Author:** ![Lance\_Turbo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lance_turbo/32/6156_2.png) [@Lance\_Turbo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Lance_Turbo)\ **Post date:** [October 21, 2022, 2:46pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2022-us-senate-races/922327/936 "2022-10-21T14:46:16Z")
PredictIt now showing 53R-47D. > RCP polling average showing 53R-47D. > Part of me thinks that this Red Shift isn’t real, that media and pollsters are going out of their way to find voters they think are under-represented and manifesting it. But I would be a fool to ignore it when virtually every source is saying the same thing. ---
**Author:** ![EllisDee](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/ellisdee/32/4531_2.png) [@EllisDee](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/EllisDee)\ **Post date:** [October 21, 2022, 3:49pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2022-us-senate-races/922327/937 "2022-10-21T15:49:20Z")
Jesus Christ, fucking nightmare fuel. ---
**Author:** ![deltogre](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/deltogre/32/5041_2.png) [@deltogre](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/deltogre)\ **Post date:** [October 21, 2022, 4:32pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2022-us-senate-races/922327/938 "2022-10-21T16:32:58Z")
My wife and I used to joke about moving. We aren’t joking, now… We live in Ohio. You should see Vance’s attack ads. I will say, Ryan’s campaign is pandering to the uneducated people who will inevitably vote for anything with an (R) next to their name on the ballot, and it gives me hope…but only a sliver. For my part, I’ve tried to point out all the fallacies of "the GOP working for the little guy bullshit, and though I’ve gotten through to a few, I fear “Buckeye Nation,” and everything that goes along with groupthink is too far gone to return to its former status as “bellwether” Swing State. It’s definitely NOT the state I grew up in. ---
**Author:** ![JKellyMap](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/jkellymap/32/15880_2.png) [@JKellyMap](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/JKellyMap)\ **Post date:** [October 22, 2022, 1:31am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2022-us-senate-races/922327/939 "2022-10-22T01:31:48Z")
> [@Elendil\_s\_Heir](#): > > Meanwhile, in Iowa: Sadly, that poll is an outlier.Highly rated, recent polls (like Emerson) show Grassley up by 10 points, same as months ago. ---
**Author:** ![flurb](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/f/51bf81/32.png) [@flurb](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/flurb)\ **Post date:** [October 23, 2022, 2:35pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2022-us-senate-races/922327/940 "2022-10-23T14:35:19Z")
FiveThirtyEight’s Deluxe Model is now 55-45 and they’re characterizing it as a “dead heat” rather than “Democrats slightly favored.” ---
**Author:** ![JKellyMap](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/jkellymap/32/15880_2.png) [@JKellyMap](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/JKellyMap)\ **Post date:** [October 24, 2022, 11:30am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2022-us-senate-races/922327/941 "2022-10-24T11:30:27Z")
The biggest shift since mid-summer has been toward Johnson in Wiscondin, from about 30% chance of winning to about 70% chance (I’m using FiveThirtyEight’s Deluxe model iterations), The second biggest shift has been in Pennsylvania (starting a bit more recently), where Fetterman’s chances have declined from about 80% to about 60% (darned stroke!). Arizona has also seen some shifts, but more like a regression to the early-summer mean of Kelly having around 65% chance of winning. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2022-us-senate-races/922327.md?page=46) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2022-us-senate-races/922327.md?page=48)