# 2022 US Senate Races **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Created:** [October 6, 2020, 10:26am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2022-us-senate-races/922327 "2020-10-06T10:26:36Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 55
**Author:** ![hajario](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/hajario/32/171_2.png) [@hajario](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/hajario)\ **Post date:** [November 9, 2022, 5:26am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2022-us-senate-races/922327/1082 "2022-11-09T05:26:51Z")
> [@Jas09](#): > > Looks like, as expected, it will all come down to Nevada. Which somehow hasn’t released any results yet. > **[Nevada results to be delayed by Clark County ballot processing](https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2022-election/nevada-results-delayed-clark-county-ballot-processing-rcna56303)** > > Officials say ballots received in drop boxes or postmarked on Election Day will not be immediately counted. ---
**Author:** ![Jas09](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/j/d07c76/32.png) [@Jas09](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Jas09)\ **Post date:** [November 9, 2022, 5:29am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2022-us-senate-races/922327/1083 "2022-11-09T05:29:02Z")
Sure, but is there some law that says they can’t release what they have? I saw something that said they couldn’t release anything while folks are still in line to vote. And something else about a few Clark County precincts with issue and a possible lawsuit to allow additional time. Maybe those two things are delaying results? I don’t care that much, since it looks like we will have a recount in GA, but it is a bit odd. ---
**Author:** ![hajario](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/hajario/32/171_2.png) [@hajario](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/hajario)\ **Post date:** [November 9, 2022, 6:20am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2022-us-senate-races/922327/1084 "2022-11-09T06:20:47Z")
ABC just called PA for Fetterman! That’s a Dem flip/ ---
**Author:** ![dtilque](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/d6d6ee/32.png) [@dtilque](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/dtilque)\ **Post date:** [November 9, 2022, 6:21am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2022-us-senate-races/922327/1085 "2022-11-09T06:21:13Z")
The BBC has some results from Nevada, but only from 5 counties. Including some from Clark County, but none from Washoe County. > **[Nevada midterm election 2022 results](https://www.bbc.com/news/election/2022/us/states/nv)** > > Get the latest news and election results in the 2022 election from BBC News ---
**Author:** ![JKellyMap](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/jkellymap/32/15880_2.png) [@JKellyMap](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/JKellyMap)\ **Post date:** [November 9, 2022, 3:05pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2022-us-senate-races/922327/1086 "2022-11-09T15:05:50Z")
NEVADA: Not looking good for Cortez Masto, but we probably won’t know for sure until maybe tonight or even tomorrow. ARIZONA: Looking good for Kelly. I expect to know by mid-afternoon today. WISCONSIN: Happy to see a surprisingly strong showing by Barnes – he almost overcame all those attack ads – but sadly, the key word is “almost.” He’ll likely lose by just a few thousand votes. Pretty amazing “comeback,” but not enough to oust the idiot traitor Johnson. So that means it all comes down to a GEORGIA runoff – again! Get those Peach State postcards and likely-voters-who-need-reminders lists going! (My wife, son, and I hand-wrote a thousand of them two years ago, while listening to James Brown, R.E.M., and Outkast). ---
**Author:** ![iiandyiiii](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/iiandyiiii/32/7924_2.png) [@iiandyiiii](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/iiandyiiii)\ **Post date:** [November 9, 2022, 4:48pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2022-us-senate-races/922327/1087 "2022-11-09T16:48:22Z")
The prediction markets still have Cortez-Masto as likely to win, because the NV experts are saying there are over 100K mail in ballots remaining from Las Vegas and Reno. ---
**Author:** ![Elendil\_s\_Heir](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/7cd45c/32.png) [@Elendil\_s\_Heir](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Elendil_s_Heir)\ **Post date:** [November 9, 2022, 4:58pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2022-us-senate-races/922327/1088 "2022-11-09T16:58:21Z")
Very sorry to post this. Ryan ran about as good a race as any Dem could in Ohio in this climate, but it wasn’t nearly good enough, dammit. > **[Republican J.D. Vance wins Ohio Senate race, CNN projects | CNN Politics](https://www.cnn.com/2022/11/08/politics/jd-vance-tim-ryan-ohio-senate-race-winner/index.html)** > > Republican J.D. Vance will win the Ohio Senate race, CNN projects, outlasting a stronger-than-expected challenge from Democrat Tim Ryan and keeping the seat under GOP control. ---
**Author:** ![JKellyMap](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/jkellymap/32/15880_2.png) [@JKellyMap](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/JKellyMap)\ **Post date:** [November 10, 2022, 12:12pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2022-us-senate-races/922327/1089 "2022-11-10T12:12:32Z")
> [@iiandyiiii](#): > > The prediction markets still have Cortez-Masto as likely to win, because the NV experts are saying there are over 100K mail in ballots remaining from Las Vegas and Reno. Cortez Masto seems to be about a 50-50 proposition at this point (my own summary of varied sources). Kelly (in Arizona) seems to be about 85% likely to win at this point (again my own summary)…I’d expect that race to be called if the next batch of processed votes pushes that likelihood over 90%, which it probably will. Maybe around mid-morning today? ---
**Author:** ![rocking\_chair](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/rocking_chair/32/2918_2.png) [@rocking\_chair](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/rocking_chair)\ **Post date:** [November 10, 2022, 1:45pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2022-us-senate-races/922327/1090 "2022-11-10T13:45:58Z")
perhaps 3ish nevada/arizona time. counting centres start around 8-9 am get the machines prepped, get the ballots unlocked and prepped, get the people prepped; 10ish start time if all goes well. get a good amount counted to be released… 3 ish. ---
**Author:** ![JKellyMap](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/jkellymap/32/15880_2.png) [@JKellyMap](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/JKellyMap)\ **Post date:** [November 10, 2022, 4:22pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2022-us-senate-races/922327/1091 "2022-11-10T16:22:33Z")
[NATHANIEL RAKICH](https://fivethirtyeight.com/contributors/nathaniel-rakich/) [NOV. 10, 11:07 AM](https://fivethirtyeight.com/live-blog/2022-midterm-election/349928/) [According to](https://fivethirtyeight.com/live-blog/2022-midterm-election/349928/)[Yvonne Wingett Sanchez](https://twitter.com/yvonnewingett/status/1590735561983000576)of the Washington Post and [Brahm Resnik](https://twitter.com/brahmresnik/status/1590736101081116672) of KPNX-TV, Maricopa County, Arizona, has between 400,000 and 410,000 ballots left to count. The next update from the county will be between 5 p.m. and 8 p.m. local time, which is 7 p.m. to 10 p.m. for you East Coasters. ---
**Author:** ![hajario](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/hajario/32/171_2.png) [@hajario](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/hajario)\ **Post date:** [November 10, 2022, 4:24pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2022-us-senate-races/922327/1092 "2022-11-10T16:24:54Z")
Actually 8 to 11 for east coasters. NV is in the Pacific time zone. ---
**Author:** ![Lance\_Turbo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lance_turbo/32/6156_2.png) [@Lance\_Turbo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Lance_Turbo)\ **Post date:** [November 10, 2022, 5:48pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2022-us-senate-races/922327/1093 "2022-11-10T17:48:31Z")
A couple Jon Ralston Tweets from last night… > > This is very promising. ---
**Author:** ![hajario](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/hajario/32/171_2.png) [@hajario](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/hajario)\ **Post date:** [November 10, 2022, 5:52pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2022-us-senate-races/922327/1094 "2022-11-10T17:52:06Z")
When is the next NV vote drop? ---
**Author:** ![rocking\_chair](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/rocking_chair/32/2918_2.png) [@rocking\_chair](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/rocking_chair)\ **Post date:** [November 10, 2022, 5:56pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2022-us-senate-races/922327/1095 "2022-11-10T17:56:14Z")
5-8pm pacific time. lots of time to get stuff done before gluing in on a news source. ---
**Author:** ![Elendil\_s\_Heir](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/7cd45c/32.png) [@Elendil\_s\_Heir](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Elendil_s_Heir)\ **Post date:** [November 10, 2022, 6:13pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2022-us-senate-races/922327/1096 "2022-11-10T18:13:56Z")
A very interesting account, I thought: > **[How Fetterman flipped Pennsylvania | CNN Politics](https://www.cnn.com/2022/11/10/politics/how-john-fetterman-won-pennsylvania/index.html)** > > When John Fetterman's team told him he was going to be Pennsylvania's next senator late into Election Night, the Democrat laughed. He smirked. Then, struck by the emotional end of a campaign that included a near-fatal stroke just five months ago,... ---
**Author:** ![Lance\_Turbo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lance_turbo/32/6156_2.png) [@Lance\_Turbo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Lance_Turbo)\ **Post date:** [November 11, 2022, 1:54pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2022-us-senate-races/922327/1097 "2022-11-11T13:54:22Z")
> Networks usually not too far behind. ---
**Author:** ![Lance\_Turbo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lance_turbo/32/6156_2.png) [@Lance\_Turbo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Lance_Turbo)\ **Post date:** [November 11, 2022, 8:17pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2022-us-senate-races/922327/1098 "2022-11-11T20:17:51Z")
> [@Lance\_Turbo](#): > > The RCP average is just a straightforward average of the polls which should give a pretty good first approximation. > > Here’s the weird thing, in two of their GOP pick ups (AZ, NH) and one GOP hold ¶ all have the Dem leading in RCP average. But then RCP applies something they call “Adjusted Polling Average November 2” which I don’t recall seeing before and it’s not clear where that comes from. > > If I had to guess, based on some other columns in the table that are how far the polls were off and in which direction in the previous three elections, it might be a weighted average of of those. I think this is a bad idea if that’s what they’re doing because I’m pretty sure polling error in general is normally distributed. Revisiting this. **Vote tallies are not final in any state yet, so the following analysis is preliminary.** So the RCP Senate Projection ([link](https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2022/senate/elections-map-rcp-projection.html)) looked at the RCP average of the net difference in percent of vote between the D and R candidates of ten swing states. They then applied an adjustment to those numbers that appeared to be based on polling error in that state in previous elections. So we have two models form RCP: straight RCP average and adjusted RCP average. Furthermore, 538 forecasts the same net difference (among other things) in their senate forecast ([link](https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2022-election-forecast/senate/)): Lite, Classic, and Deluxe. We can directly compare these models across these ten states using root mean square error (RMSE) and rank them from best to worst. Lower RMSE is better. | Model | RMSE | | --- | --- | | 538 Deluxe | 3.92 | | 538 Classic | 4.13 | | 538 Lite | 4.24 | | RCP Average | 5.58 | | RCP Adjusted | 6.06 | So, at least at this preliminary stage, we can see that all the 538 models performed better than both RCP models, and the 538 models got better from lite to classic to deluxe. But the thing I actually was curious about was did RCP’s adjustment improve their model? And at this point it looks like it did not. ---
**Author:** ![not\_what\_you\_d\_expect](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/not_what_you_d_expect/32/3246_2.png) [@not\_what\_you\_d\_expect](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/not_what_you_d_expect)\ **Post date:** [November 12, 2022, 3:10am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2022-us-senate-races/922327/1099 "2022-11-12T03:10:36Z")
Mark Kelly is now up by 123K with the batch that just popped. Yay. And that was from what was supposed to be R friendly area! He’s just been called the winner! ---
**Author:** ![Bootb](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/e19b73/32.png) [@Bootb](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Bootb)\ **Post date:** [November 12, 2022, 3:20am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2022-us-senate-races/922327/1100 "2022-11-12T03:20:31Z")
> [@Lance\_Turbo](#): > > But the thing I actually was curious about was did RCP’s adjustment improve their model? And at this point it looks like it did not. It seems to me that there’s somewhat of a tendency for pollsters to over-correct their errors from the previous cycle. If that is indeed true, then RCP’s adjustment would have simply made things worse. ---
**Author:** ![JKellyMap](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/jkellymap/32/15880_2.png) [@JKellyMap](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/JKellyMap)\ **Post date:** [November 12, 2022, 10:21am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2022-us-senate-races/922327/1101 "2022-11-12T10:21:53Z")
> [@Bootb](#): > > It seems to me that there’s somewhat of a tendency for pollsters to over-correct their errors from the previous cycle. If that is indeed true, then RCP’s adjustment would have simply made things worse. That’s exactly what Nate Silver (of FiveThirtyEight) speculated might happen, in a podcast a couple days before the election. (And thanks for generating those RMS errors, Lance\_Turbo – just what I had been curious about. Overall it shows POLLING wasn’t terrible this time (but has its challenges, for sure)…and that FiveThirtyEight’s MODEL algorithms are doing quite well, though when so many races are so close, even small misses can loom large.) [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2022-us-senate-races/922327.md?page=54) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2022-us-senate-races/922327.md?page=56)