# 2023 95th Academy Awards Nominees are Out **URL:** \ **Category:** Cafe Society\ **Tags:** movies, talk-variety-show\ **Created:** [January 24, 2023, 6:41pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2023-95th-academy-awards-nominees-are-out/978739 "2023-01-24T18:41:01Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 1\ **Showing post:** 72
**Author:** ![JohnT](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/johnt/32/15048_2.png) [@JohnT](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/JohnT)\ **Post date:** [January 29, 2023, 1:55pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2023-95th-academy-awards-nominees-are-out/978739/72 "2023-01-29T13:55:49Z")
Guys and gals, I don’t know what to say that I haven’t been saying since 2014… > [@Are the Oscars out of touch?](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/are-the-oscars-out-of-touch/678640/17): > > I don’t want to get in this argument again, but I will just quote from a post I made a few years ago about this very point. However, since I made this it is becoming clear that the correlation between being B. Picture winner and a box office favorite is becoming a little more tenuous. But, given a list of nominees, smart money says to pay attention to the box office figures of the nominees. Or 2007 for that matter: > [@The 10 Worst Best Picture Winners](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-10-worst-best-picture-winners/571978/125): > > This just isn’t so. 'Cause I like to build spreadsheets, I built one containing all B. Picture nominees since 1927 (476 of them, not counting this year) and researched every single film’s box office takes\*, ranking them both in the overall population of movies released that year and within the subset of B. Picture nominees for that year. The results are pretty conclusive: Box office success is a large, if not the largest, predicator of which movie will win Best Picture: … 27% of Best Picture… I once used my charts to do very well in Oscar pools because the same correlations in BP also impacted the other races - effectively, the more people saw a movie, the more likely it would win the award in that category. BO wasn’t the determing factor, _but it allowed me to automatically strike films from the list of potential winners_ which improved my odds. Have no idea who is going to win cinematography? It definitely won’t be the movie in that category that the fewest people watched, that’s for sure. The rest might be artistic merit or ‘we owe this person’ or whatever, but it won’t be the film that no one saw. And the correlations still matter, but nowhere near as much as they did prior to 2008 - prior to that point BO was the primary indicator of which movies were seen. Since then, the numbers are increasingly murky. And I have… and had, as that 2014 post shows… no problem admitting this as well. --- _[View the full topic](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2023-95th-academy-awards-nominees-are-out/978739)._