# 2023 NFL Draft Thread - Fair to middling **URL:** \ **Category:** The Game Room\ **Tags:** football-nfl\ **Created:** [April 21, 2023, 2:39am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2023-nfl-draft-thread-fair-to-middling/983001 "2023-04-21T02:39:50Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 1
**Author:** ![Omniscient](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/omniscient/32/3290_2.png) [@Omniscient](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Omniscient)\ **Post date:** [April 21, 2023, 2:39am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2023-nfl-draft-thread-fair-to-middling/983001/1 "2023-04-21T02:39:50Z")
It’s a week until draft day. Players are making last minute visits. Agents and teams are telling reporters lie after lie. Everyone is great, and everyone is terrible. What a time to be a football fan. 32 fan bases are all the happiest and most optimistic they will get. Starting on Thursday the possibilities dwindle, and you’ll start talking yourself into some jamoke that you’ve never heard of, convinced he’s the keystone to the team’s championship run. Some amateurs may tell you that the day after the draft is peak hopium, they are wrong, every team can imagine having _any player_ right now. # Draft Times Round 1: 2023-04-28T00:00:00Z Round 2 - 3: 2023-04-28T23:00:00Z Round 4 - 7: 2023-04-29T16:00:00Z # Draft Order (as of 4/20/23) ## Round 1 1. Carolina Panthers (from Chicago) 2. Houston Texans 3. Arizona Cardinals 4. Indianapolis Colts 5. Seattle Seahawks (from Denver) 6. Detroit Lions (from L.A. Rams) 7. Las Vegas Raiders 8. Atlanta Falcons 9. Chicago Bears (from Carolina) 10. Philadelphia Eagles (from New Orleans) 11. Tennessee Titans 12. Houston Texans (from Cleveland) 13. New York Jets 14. New England Patriots 15. Green Bay Packers 16. Washington Commanders 17. Pittsburgh Steelers 18. Detroit Lions 19. Tampa Bay Buccaneers 20. Seattle Seahawks 21. Los Angeles Chargers 22. Baltimore Ravens 23. Minnesota Vikings 24. Jacksonville Jaguars 25. New York Giants 26. Dallas Cowboys 27. Buffalo Bills 28. Cincinnati Bengals 29. New Orleans Saints (from San Francisco through Miami and Denver) 30. Philadelphia Eagles 31. Kansas City Chiefs ## Round 2 > **Summary** > > 1. Pittsburgh Steelers (from Chicago) > 2. Houston Texans > 3. Arizona Cardinals > 4. Indianapolis Colts > 5. Los Angeles Rams > 6. Seattle Seahawks (from Denver) > 7. Las Vegas Raiders > 8. Carolina Panthers > 9. New Orleans Saints > 10. Tennessee Titans > 11. New York Jets (from Cleveland) > 12. New York Jets > 13. Atlanta Falcons > 14. Green Bay Packers > 15. New England Patriots > 16. Washington Commanders > 17. Detroit Lions > 18. Pittsburgh Steelers > 19. Tampa Bay Buccaneers > 20. Miami Dolphins > 21. Seattle Seahawks > 22. Chicago Bears (from Baltimore) > 23. Los Angeles Chargers > 24. Detroit Lions (from Minnesota) > 25. Jacksonville Jaguars > 26. New York Giants > 27. Dallas Cowboys > 28. Buffalo Bills > 29. Cincinnati Bengals > 30. Chicago Bears (from San Francisco through Carolina) > 31. Philadelphia Eagles > 32. Kansas City Chiefs ## Round 3 > **Summary** > > 1. Chicago Bears > 2. Houston Texans > 3. Arizona Cardinals > 4. Denver Broncos (from Indianapolis) > 5. Denver Broncos > 6. Los Angeles Rams > 7. Las Vegas Raiders > 8. New Orleans Saints > 9. Tennessee Titans > 10. Houston Texans (from Cleveland) > 11. Cleveland Browns (from N.Y. Jets) > 12. Atlanta Falcons > 13. New England Patriots (from Carolina) > 14. Los Angeles Rams (from New England through Miami) > 15. Green Bay Packers > 16. Indianapolis Colts (from Washington) > 17. Pittsburgh Steelers > 18. Detroit Lions > 19. Tampa Bay Buccaneers > 20. Seattle Seahawks > 21. Miami Dolphins > 22. Los Angeles Chargers > 23. Baltimore Ravens > 24. Minnesota Vikings > 25. Jacksonville Jaguars > 26. New York Giants > 27. Dallas Cowboys > 28. Buffalo Bills > 29. Cincinnati Bengals > 30. Carolina Panthers (from San Francisco) > 31. Philadelphia Eagles > 32. Kansas City Chiefs > 33. Arizona Cardinals (Compensatory Selection) > 34. Washington Commanders (Compensatory Selection) > 35. Cleveland Browns (Special Compensatory Selection) > 36. San Francisco 49ers (Special Compensatory Selection) > 37. Las Vegas Raiders from Kansas City Chiefs through New York Giants (Special Compensatory Selection) > 38. San Francisco 49ers (Special Compensatory Selection) > 39. San Francisco 49ers (Special Compensatory Selection) ## Round 4 > **Summary** > > 1. Chicago Bears > 2. Houston Texans > 3. Arizona Cardinals > 4. Indianapolis Colts > 5. New England Patriots (from L.A. Rams) > 6. Denver Broncos > 7. Las Vegas Raiders > 8. Atlanta Falcons (from Tennessee) > 9. Cleveland Browns > 10. New York Jets > 11. Atlanta Falcons > 12. Carolina Panthers > 13. New Orleans Saints > 14. Green Bay Packers > 15. New England Patriots > 16. Washington Commanders > 17. Minnesota Vikings (from Detroit) > 18. Pittsburgh Steelers > 19. Jacksonville Jaguars (from Tampa Bay) > 20. Kansas City Chiefs (from Miami) > 21. Seattle Seahawks > 22. Baltimore Ravens > 23. Los Angeles Chargers > 24. Cleveland Browns (from Minnesota) > 25. Jacksonville Jaguars > 26. New York Giants > 27. Dallas Cowboys > 28. Buffalo Bills > 29. Cincinnati Bengals > 30. Carolina Panthers (from San Francisco) > 31. Chicago Bears (from Philadelphia) > 32. Kansas City Chiefs > 33. New England Patriots (Compensatory Selection) ## Round 5 > **Summary** > > 1. Chicago Bears > 2. Buffalo Bills (from Arizona) > 3. Indianapolis Colts > 4. Denver Broncos > 5. Cleveland Browns (from L.A. Rams) > 6. Las Vegas Raiders > 7. Cleveland Browns > 8. New York Jets > 9. Las Vegas Raiders (from Atlanta) > 10. Carolina Panthers > 11. New Orleans Saints > 12. Tennessee Titans > 13. Chicago Bears (from New England through Baltimore) > 14. Green Bay Packers > 15. Washington Commanders > 16. Seattle Seahawks (from Pittsburgh) > 17. Detroit Lions > 18. Tampa Bay Buccaneers > 19. Seattle Seahawks > 20. San Francisco 49ers (from Miami) > 21. Los Angeles Chargers > 22. Baltimore Ravens > 23. Minnesota Vikings > 24. Detroit Lions (from Jacksonville through Atlanta) > 25. New York Giants > 26. Houston Texans (from Dallas) > 27. Indianapolis Colts (from Buffalo) > 28. Cincinnati Bengals > 29. San Francisco 49ers > 30. New Orleans Saints (from Philadelphia) > 31. Kansas City Chiefs > 32. Los Angeles Rams (Compensatory Selection) > 33. Arizona Cardinals (Compensatory Selection) > 34. Dallas Cowboys (Compensatory Selection) > 35. Green Bay Packers (Compensatory Selection) > 36. Los Angeles Rams (Compensatory Selection) > 37. New York Giants (Compensatory Selection) > 38. San Francisco 49ers (Compensatory Selection) > 39. Las Vegas Raiders (Compensatory Selection) > 40. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (Compensatory Selection) > 41. Indianapolis Colts from Dallas Cowboys (Compensatory Selection) > 42. Los Angeles Rams (Compensatory Selection) ## Round 6 > **Summary** > > 1. Kansas City Chiefs (from Chicago through Miami) > 2. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (from Houston) > 3. Arizona Cardinals > 4. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (from Indianapolis) > 5. Los Angeles Rams > 6. Detroit Lions (from Denver) > 7. New England Patriots (from Las Vegas) > 8. Jacksonville Jaguars (from N.Y. Jets) > 9. Tennessee Titans (from Atlanta) > 10. New England Patriots (from Carolina) > 11. Houston Texans (from New Orleans) > 12. Los Angeles Rams (from Tennessee) > 13. Cleveland Browns > 14. Los Angeles Rams (from Green Bay) > 15. New England Patriots > 16. Washington Commanders > 17. Detroit Lions > 18. Denver Broncos (from Pittsburgh) > 19. Tampa Bay Buccaneers > 20. Miami Dolphins > 21. Seattle Seahawks > 22. Baltimore Ravens > 23. Los Angeles Chargers > 24. Houston Texans (from Minnesota) > 25. Jacksonville Jaguars > 26. Houston Texans (from N.Y. Giants) > 27. Las Vegas Raiders (from Dallas) > 28. Buffalo Bills > 29. Cincinnati Bengals > 30. New York Jets (from San Francisco through Houston) > 31. Jacksonville Jaguars (from Philadelphia) > 32. New York Giants (from Kansas City) > 33. New England Patriots (Compensatory Selection) > 34. Minnesota Vikings (Compensatory Selection) > 35. Dallas Cowboys (Compensatory Selection) > 36. Arizona Cardinals (Compensatory Selection) > 37. Las Vegas Raiders (Compensatory Selection) > 38. Washington Commanders (Compensatory Selection) > 39. San Francisco 49ers (Compensatory Selection) > 40. Kansas City Chiefs (Compensatory Selection) ## Round 7 > **Summary** > > 1. Chicago Bears > 2. Philadelphia Eagles (from Houston through Minnesota) > 3. Las Vegas Raiders (from Arizona) > 4. Indianapolis Colts > 5. San Francisco 49ers (from Denver) > 6. Los Angeles Rams > 7. Atlanta Falcons (from Las Vegas) > 8. Atlanta Falcons > 9. Jacksonville Jaguars (from Carolina) > 10. New Orleans Saints > 11. Tennessee Titans > 12. Cleveland Browns > 13. Houston Texans (from N.Y. Jets through Tampa Bay) > 14. Las Vegas Raiders (from New England) > 15. Green Bay Packers > 16. Washington Commanders > 17. Los Angeles Rams\* (from Pittsburgh) > 18. Green Bay Packers (from Detroit through L.A. Rams) > 19. Indianapolis Colts (from Tampa Bay) > 20. Seattle Seahawks > 21. Miami Dolphins > 22. Los Angeles Chargers > 23. New York Giants (from Baltimore) > 24. Pittsburgh Steelers (from Minnesota through Denver) > 25. Green Bay Packers (from Jacksonville) > 26. New York Giants > 27. Dallas Cowboys > 28. New England Patriots (from Buffalo through Atlanta) > 29. Cincinnati Bengals > 30. San Francisco 49ers > 31. Philadelphia Eagles > 32. Kansas City Chiefs > 33. Kansas City Chiefs (Compensatory Selection) > 34. Pittsburgh Steelers (from L.A. Rams – Compensatory Selection) > 35. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (Compensatory Selection) > 36. San Francisco 49ers (Compensatory Selection) > 37. New York Giants (Compensatory Selection) > 38. San Francisco 49ers (Compensatory Selection) > 39. Green Bay Packers (Compensatory Selection) > 40. New Orleans Saints (Compensatory Selection) > 41. Chicago Bears (Compensatory Selection) > 42. Houston Texans (Compensatory Selection) # Top Storylines Chicago Bears trade the 1st overall pick to the Panthers. We have no idea who they plan to select. Seems like they had no idea when they made the trade either. Can the Bears trade down twice? We might have 4 QBs taken with the first 4 picks. Seems almost certain we’ll have 4 in the top 10. Top 5 QBs all have reasons to love them and reasons to doubt them. - Bryce Young - Basically micro Joe Burrow - CJ Stroud - Polished passer, not mobile enough, low ceiling - Anthony Richardson - Unprecedented athleticism and arm, limited experience and success - Will Levis - Prototype size and elite arm, but couldn’t win in the SEC at Kentucky in 2022. - Hendon Hooker - Big body, big arm, old, injured and gimmick system at Tennessee. No prototype WRs or OTs. Plenty of depth and lots of productive guys, but the physical traits aren’t there. Jalen Carter trying to crater his draft stock. Who is going to roll the dice? Will Anderson might fall out the top 5! So many great CBs. Who does the thing where they draft Bijan Robinson in the 1st round and get laughed at? Do the Seahawks draft a QB behind Geno? Do the Raiders draft a QB behind Jimmy G? Anyone else gonna surprise us with a QB? The Houston Texans and Las Vegas Raiders have 12 draft picks. The Rams have 11 but 8 of them are after round 5, same with the Patriots but 8 are after round 4. The Bears, Seahawks and Chiefs have 10. The Packers have 10, but 4 of them ae in round 7. The Giants have 10 but 6 are after the 5th. Aaron Rodgers hasn’t been traded yet. Lamar Jackson hasn’t signed a deal yet. This one has the potential to be a wild one. Can’t wait. ---
**Author:** ![DCnDC](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dcndc/32/2842_2.png) [@DCnDC](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DCnDC)\ **Post date:** [April 21, 2023, 2:55am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2023-nfl-draft-thread-fair-to-middling/983001/2 "2023-04-21T02:55:26Z")
CB looks pretty thick at the top. Probably be a run on TEs and DEs in the 2nd. Gonna be interesting. ---
**Author:** ![Omniscient](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/omniscient/32/3290_2.png) [@Omniscient](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Omniscient)\ **Post date:** [April 21, 2023, 3:19am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2023-nfl-draft-thread-fair-to-middling/983001/3 "2023-04-21T03:19:25Z")
Quick stream of consciousness. I believe… …Anthony Richardson should be the 1st overall pick. And I think it’s more likely than people think. …Bryce Young will be a total bust. He’s gonna make Tua look like an Ironman. …CJ Stroud is just a guy. …Will Levis is actually going to be great. Go ahead and laugh, but if he falls outside the top 10 it’s a mistake. …the Bears will not take a Tackle at #9. …Zay Flowers is the best WR in this draft class. …JSN is not. …the Illinois defensive backfield was way better than I realized this year. …Parris Johnson Jr. looks like any number of busts the Bears have drafted at OT over the years, please stay away Poles. …Bijan Robinson isn’t nearly the prospect that Saquon was. …Will Anderson will be pretty good, but he won’t be a gamechanger. …Cedric Tillman would be a great get at the end of round 2. …Lukas Van Ness is a super confusing prospect. …Michael Mayer is a guy I’d love to have but not where he’s going to get drafted. …Quentin Johnson is going to get overdrafted by 2 rounds because he’s the only non-midget out there. …Rashee Rice is the bigger bodied WR you want to take a chance on instead. …Zach Charbonnet is going to be terrible. He runs like a guy in a bad football movie. …there will be more TEs drafted in the first 45 picks than WRs. …Yaya Diaby is a delightful name to say. ---
**Author:** ![opiewan](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/opiewan/32/3566_2.png) [@opiewan](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/opiewan)\ **Post date:** [April 21, 2023, 3:46am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2023-nfl-draft-thread-fair-to-middling/983001/4 "2023-04-21T03:46:34Z")
As a Lions season ticket holder, I am nervous as hell they’re gonna take a chance on Carter at 6. The raw talent is there, but the Lions have a history of taking chances on character issue players that come back to bite them. The good news is that Brad Holmes has shown an eye for drafting talent and finding guys in day 2 or 3 of the draft which is something that has been seriously lacking for decades. I’ve seen alternate reports the Lions trade up to 2 or 3 and get Richardson, which is almost as crazy as the Trey Lance to Detroit for a third rounder and a bag of Better Made BBQ chips ‘rumors’ I’ve seen online. Fun time to be a Lions fan, that’s for sure. Draft time is usually our Super Bowl and this year there’s actual hype around the team. ---
**Author:** ![Akaj](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/akaj/32/145_2.png) [@Akaj](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Akaj)\ **Post date:** [April 21, 2023, 1:34pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2023-nfl-draft-thread-fair-to-middling/983001/5 "2023-04-21T13:34:23Z")
> [@Omniscient](#): > > …the Bears will not take a Tackle at #9. All the latest mocks have them taking Skoronski. Do you see Carter falling to them at #9, Poles trading back again, or drafting a different position (CB? WR?) altogether? FWIW, my favorite scenario has them trading back and still getting Darnell Wright in the mid-teens. ---
**Author:** ![Jimmy\_Chitwood](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/j/f475e1/32.png) [@Jimmy\_Chitwood](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Jimmy_Chitwood)\ **Post date:** [April 21, 2023, 1:39pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2023-nfl-draft-thread-fair-to-middling/983001/6 "2023-04-21T13:39:55Z")
> [@Omniscient](#): > > …Bijan Robinson isn’t nearly the prospect that Saquon was. Wait, what? Do you mean that you think he isn’t going to be nearly the player Saquon is in the NFL? As stated, unless we’re using some idiosyncratic definition of prospect, I’m pretty sure it’s just objectively not the case. Where’s the deficiency? (I would not even contemplate taking him until about 25, so realistically would literally never draft him, mind you. But as a prospect I don’t see the issue). ---
**Author:** ![Omniscient](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/omniscient/32/3290_2.png) [@Omniscient](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Omniscient)\ **Post date:** [April 21, 2023, 7:14pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2023-nfl-draft-thread-fair-to-middling/983001/7 "2023-04-21T19:14:11Z")
> [@Akaj](#): > > Do you see Carter falling to them at #9, Poles trading back again, or drafting a different position (CB? WR?) altogether? I think it’s 50-50 (honestly, maybe more like 35-65) that one of the top 4 QBs is still sitting there at 9 and the Bears will trade back. That’s my best case. It helps that the Bears already likely negotiated with most teams for the top pick so they know who’s looking. I don’t see the Bears taking Carter. Even if the character stuff is ignored, the effort stuff just won’t work with the HITS culture Eberflus is trying to build. If the Bears are picking here it’s going to be BPA since we need help almost everywhere. It shouldn’t be a WR since any WR in this draft will be a reach at 9. Plus they made the trades for Claypool and Moote specifically so they didn’t have to reach on this class of twerps. I actually think most likely is Edge, Tyree Wilson is the most likely option I think. Maybe Lukas Van Ness if Poles buys the upside. I won’t rule out CB either. It’s a deep class so waiting is preferred, but Witherspoon would really pair great with Johnson and could allow Kyler Gordon to play nickel where he might have a chance too be elite. > [@Jimmy\_Chitwood](#): > > Do you mean that you think he isn’t going to be nearly the player Saquon is in the NFL? As stated, unless we’re using some idiosyncratic definition of prospect, I’m pretty sure it’s just objectively not the case. Never claimed it was objective. Mostly eye test. That said, there’s a big difference between Saquon’s 4.40 and Bijan’s 4.46 and 41” vert vs 37”. Saquon was also almost 20 pounds heavier. Production is similar, Saquon is a substantially better athlete. That said, I’d have never drafted Saquon either. And history has proven that opinion right. There-year bell cows in college are a terrible investment. ---
**Author:** ![Akaj](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/akaj/32/145_2.png) [@Akaj](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Akaj)\ **Post date:** [April 21, 2023, 8:05pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2023-nfl-draft-thread-fair-to-middling/983001/8 "2023-04-21T20:05:59Z")
> [@Omniscient](#): > > I don’t see the Bears taking Carter. Even if the character stuff is ignored, the effort stuff just won’t work with the HITS culture Eberflus is trying to build. I’m with you here. I don’t think we’re a strong enough team to be rolling the dice on a guy like that. Let the Eagles take him. > [@Omniscient](#): > > Tyree Wilson is the most likely option I think. I’d be delighted but I highly doubt he makes it to #9. ---
**Author:** ![Omniscient](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/omniscient/32/3290_2.png) [@Omniscient](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Omniscient)\ **Post date:** [April 22, 2023, 12:43am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2023-nfl-draft-thread-fair-to-middling/983001/9 "2023-04-22T00:43:24Z")
> [@Akaj](#): > > I’d be delighted but I highly doubt he makes it to #9. Most mock drafts tend to agree. But I really think there’s going to be 4 QBs in the top 5 or 6 picks. Few mocks are projecting that. If 4 of the top 9 are QBs, then Carter and Anderson, you only need a couple teams to go WR or DB for Wilson to be there. Also Wilson is a fairly unpolished prospect which makes the current top 5 consensus projection a bit of a stretch. ---
**Author:** ![Jegpeg](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/j/f475e1/32.png) [@Jegpeg](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Jegpeg)\ **Post date:** [April 22, 2023, 12:55pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2023-nfl-draft-thread-fair-to-middling/983001/10 "2023-04-22T12:55:49Z")
I really don’t have a clue what will happen in the draft usually have a much better idea even if one or two early picks are surprising. I don’t see Richardson and Levis as top 5 picks but most of the mocks seem to have thenm there. This is particularly so for Richardson who looks like Lance did in 2021 except that Lance had accuracy as a strength. As a Seahawks fan I would have concerns picking him up at 20 but there is a lot of speculation we will take him at 5 or that he will be gone before then. ---
**Author:** ![Superdude](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/superdude/32/13450_2.png) [@Superdude](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Superdude)\ **Post date:** [April 22, 2023, 1:27pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2023-nfl-draft-thread-fair-to-middling/983001/11 "2023-04-22T13:27:43Z")
According to [bleacherreport.com](https://bleacherreport.com/articles/10073239-nfl-draft-2023-rumors-colts-want-will-levis-but-complicated-if-cj-stroud-falls), the Colts are in love with Will Levis, but will be conflicted if CJ Stroud is still available at #4. As someone who lives in Kentucky, and has watched Will Levis play (keep in mind: I have no inside knowledge, am not a scout, not a University of Kentucky fan, and only watched a handful of games), I’m not impressed. He seems like too much of a project with too low a ceiling to spend a 4th overall pick on. I know there are negatives on all of the Big 4 QB Prospects, but Levis is the one I’m the least comfortable with. I’d much rather go with Young or Stroud. ---
**Author:** ![Jimmy\_Chitwood](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/j/f475e1/32.png) [@Jimmy\_Chitwood](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Jimmy_Chitwood)\ **Post date:** [April 22, 2023, 1:55pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2023-nfl-draft-thread-fair-to-middling/983001/12 "2023-04-22T13:55:36Z")
The quarterback mix this year could almost have been created in a lab. Nobody’s perfect, depending on what your philosophy is you might favor any of the 4, and it seems like it would be impossible to come away from it feeling fully comfortable no matter where or who you pick. Imagine taking Stroud at 1 and then Bryce Young never makes a bad throw his entire career and Richardson is Lebron but at quarterback, or imagine 3 teams take mediocre starters and then Levis goes late and is Josh Allen. I can think of a counter-argument to basically every take I’ve heard, and they all feel reasonable, but I have no idea what I actually believe is true. Most years it feels like I would love to be in the war room for one of these teams but this year I would hate it. ---
**Author:** ![Omniscient](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/omniscient/32/3290_2.png) [@Omniscient](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Omniscient)\ **Post date:** [April 22, 2023, 7:23pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2023-nfl-draft-thread-fair-to-middling/983001/13 "2023-04-22T19:23:18Z")
For whatever it’s worth. > **[Report reveals S2 Cognition scores for 2023 NFL draft's QB prospects](https://pantherswire.usatoday.com/2023/04/21/2023-nfl-draft-s2-cognition-scores-bryce-young-cj-stroud-anthony-richardson-will-levis/)** > > In the third part of his annual “NFL Draft Series,” Bob McGinn disclosed the S2 Cognition scores of the 2023 draft’s QB class. > - Bryce Young (Alabama): 98 percent > - Jake Haener (Fresno State): 96 percent > - Will Levis (Kentucky): 93 percent > - Jaren Hall (BYU): 93 percent > - Clayton Tune (Houston): 84 percent > - Anthony Richardson (Florida): 79 percent > - Hendon Hooker (Tennessee): 46 percent > - C.J. Stroud (Ohio State): 18 percent > [@Jegpeg](#): > > I really don’t have a clue what will happen in the draft usually have a much better idea even if one or two early picks are surprising. I’m trying to determine if this is recency bias or not, but this feels like one of the most wide-open drafts I can remember. All drafts are generally wild after the first pick or three, but not knowing who the top pick is certainly adds something to the uncertainty. That said, uncertainty seems like the rule for this stuff. One weird thing is that when you look at the way teams are clustered in the draft, there seem to be a ton of spots in the first round where teams with identical needs are clumped together. There might be a bunch of teams jumping up 2-3 spots to get ahead of teams they think have the same targets. > [@Jegpeg](#): > > I don’t see Richardson and Levis as top 5 picks but most of the mocks seem to have thenm there. This is particularly so for Richardson who looks like Lance did in 2021 except that Lance had accuracy as a strength. I’ve seen this comp a bunch and I really don’t see it. Lance played at NDSU and Richardson at Florida. Couldn’t be more different. Lance missed an entire season; Richardson didn’t miss any time. Richardson’s an all time athlete with a elite, elite arm; Lance’s athletic score is middle of the pack and his arm is just adequate. Lance was too cautious; Richardson will toss it up for grabs. These guys couldn’t be more different. They are just QBs with upside and some questions, but other than that they have little in common. Justin Fields is a much better comp for Richardson. Richardson is bigger and faster, but Fields is more accomplished on the field. But from a skills and style POV they share a lot. ---
**Author:** ![Omniscient](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/omniscient/32/3290_2.png) [@Omniscient](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Omniscient)\ **Post date:** [April 23, 2023, 2:53am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2023-nfl-draft-thread-fair-to-middling/983001/14 "2023-04-23T02:53:35Z")
Quick thought experiment. Imagine you’re the Tennessee Titans. You have the 11th overall pick and you probably need to think about getting a QB. Option 1: Spend the 11th pick on the best remaining QB. Might be Richardson, might be Levis, might be Stroud. Option 2: Send your 2nd and 3rd round picks to San Fransisco for Trey Lance. Which way do you go? ---
**Author:** ![Jegpeg](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/j/f475e1/32.png) [@Jegpeg](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Jegpeg)\ **Post date:** [April 23, 2023, 8:39am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2023-nfl-draft-thread-fair-to-middling/983001/15 "2023-04-23T08:39:52Z")
Knowing what we know about Lance now of the Lance of 2021? Going on what we know now, noone would consider taking Lance at 3 Lance is a known bust, the others as risks. With the knowledge of Lance ins 2021 (Raw but with great athleticism and a powerful accurate arm) he would still be a reach at 3 (everyone expected the 49ers to take Mac Jones) and could be available available at 11. I would stand pat and if all the options start to disappear think about trading up for the last available on that list. ---
**Author:** ![Hamlet](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/hamlet/32/2818_2.png) [@Hamlet](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Hamlet)\ **Post date:** [April 23, 2023, 4:05pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2023-nfl-draft-thread-fair-to-middling/983001/16 "2023-04-23T16:05:00Z")
Seems every draft we have the same “prototypical QB athlete” vs “Productive, athletically limited QB”. Daniel Jones/Drew Lock v. Kyler Murray. Josh Allen v. Sam Darnold. Trey Lance v. Mac Jones. Carson Wentz v. Jared Goff. Blake Bortles v. Teddy Bridgewater. This year, its Will Levis/Anthony Richardson v. Bryce Young/CJ Stroud. This year, like most without a Joe Burrow or a Trevor Lawrence, there are reasons to like and dislike, every QB in the draft. With that being the case, the biggest mistake a GM can make, to me, is having a “my guy” and throwing massive resources to get them. Most consistent, good teams dont have to reach for one particular guy. Either way, it will be interesting. ---
**Author:** ![Omniscient](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/omniscient/32/3290_2.png) [@Omniscient](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Omniscient)\ **Post date:** [April 23, 2023, 5:17pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2023-nfl-draft-thread-fair-to-middling/983001/17 "2023-04-23T17:17:43Z")
Joe Burrow had big “one year wonder” questions and he couldn’t beat out JT Barrett for the starting gig at OSU. He was skinny and didn’t have the strongest arm. We tend to forget when there are questions about a guy who works out. ---
**Author:** ![DCnDC](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dcndc/32/2842_2.png) [@DCnDC](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DCnDC)\ **Post date:** [April 23, 2023, 5:30pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2023-nfl-draft-thread-fair-to-middling/983001/18 "2023-04-23T17:30:43Z")
> [@Omniscient](#): > > For whatever it’s worth. I honestly don’t know what it’s worth but 18 percent seems like a shockingly low score. Hopefully for whoever takes him, he’s got some kind of test-taking disability, or he just didn’t care about the test. ---
**Author:** ![Jimmy\_Chitwood](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/j/f475e1/32.png) [@Jimmy\_Chitwood](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Jimmy_Chitwood)\ **Post date:** [April 23, 2023, 5:42pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2023-nfl-draft-thread-fair-to-middling/983001/19 "2023-04-23T17:42:03Z")
> [@Jegpeg](#): > > Going on what we know now, noone would consider taking Lance at 3 Lance is a known bust, the others as risks. He’s not yet 23, he’s thrown 100 career passes, and he hasn’t been completely out of his depth. If any of the other 4 quarterbacks start the way Lance’s career has started, they will still be considered unknown quantities. > [@Hamlet](#): > > This year, like most without a Joe Burrow or a Trevor Lawrence, there are reasons to like and dislike, every QB in the draft.With that being the case, the biggest mistake a GM can make, to me, is having a “my guy” and throwing massive resources to get them. Most consistent, good teams dont have to reach for one particular guy. Take that one step further. How many examples are there of any type of team trading massive resources to take any quarterback in the top 8 or so and it not being a mistake? Vick would be one if that counts as “massive resources.” Off the top of my head, it seems to me like any other time somebody traded for a premium pick to take a QB, they were the mark. For the most part it seems teams that drafted the right quarterbacks either teams traded up for a pick not that relatively high, or they stayed pat with their own pick. Maybe a lesson there, my “Lance isn’t a bust yet” take notwithstanding. ---
**Author:** ![Omniscient](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/omniscient/32/3290_2.png) [@Omniscient](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Omniscient)\ **Post date:** [April 23, 2023, 6:05pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2023-nfl-draft-thread-fair-to-middling/983001/20 "2023-04-23T18:05:38Z")
The Chiefs traded a future 1st to go up and get Mahomes. The Bills traded two second round picks to move up 5 spots for Josh Allen. Most QB draft picks are busts of one shape or another, whether you trade up or not. There is no recipe for landing a franchise QB. [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2023-nfl-draft-thread-fair-to-middling/983001.md?page=2)