# 2024 French legislative election
**URL:** https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2024-french-legislative-election/1002713
**Category:** Politics & Elections
**Created:** [June 10, 2024, 9:59pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2024-french-legislative-election/1002713 "2024-06-10T21:59:08Z")
**Posts on this page:** 20
**Page:** 1
### Author:  [@alphaboi867](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/alphaboi867)
#### Post date: [June 10, 2024, 9:59pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2024-french-legislative-election/1002713/1 "2024-06-10T21:59:08Z")
Yesterday President Macron disolved the National Assembly and called for a snap election on 30 June 2024 (run-offs 7 July 2024). What exactly is his plan? Cohabitation with the far right or far left? This is going to happen in less than 3 weeks!
> **[Emmanuel Macron gambles on snap France election after European defeat](https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c8009e2z4xlo)**
>
> Calling a snap election is a huge surprise for France, and a huge risk for President Macron.
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### Author:  [@Measure\_for\_Measure](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Measure_for_Measure)
#### Post date: [June 11, 2024, 4:18am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2024-french-legislative-election/1002713/2 "2024-06-11T04:18:40Z")
Macron is a center-left reformist, so he has my nonexistent vote. Neo-neo-neo-fascists or the other kind earn my opposition. My knowledge of French politics is at the near-moron level. Wiki:
> On 9 June 2024, shortly after 21:00 CET, Emmanuel Macron dissolved parliament and called for snap parliamentary elections in a national address following exit polls that indicated that the Renaissance party would be significantly eclipsed by the National Rally in votes for [France’s European Parliament elections](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_European_Parliament_election_in_France). In his address, he called the rise of nationalism by agitators a threat to France, Europe, and France’s place in the world. He also decried the far right as the “impoverishment of the French people and the downfall of our country”. The first round of elections are scheduled for 30 June, and a second round for 7 July.[[3]](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_French_legislative_election#cite_note-:3-3)
> National Rally leader [Jordan Bardella](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jordan_Bardella) called the disparity a “stinging disavowal” of Macron, calling for him to dissolve parliament in the wake of the defeat he called “Day 1 of the post-Macron era”.[[4]](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_French_legislative_election#cite_note-4) [Marine Le Pen](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Marine_Le_Pen) and leader of [La France Insoumise](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/La_France_Insoumise) [Jean-Luc Mélenchon](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jean-Luc_M%C3%A9lenchon) celebrated the poll results and welcomed the call for snap elections.[[3]](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_French_legislative_election#cite_note-:3-3) Far-left politician [François Ruffin](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fran%C3%A7ois_Ruffin) called on all leftwing parties, including the [Greens](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Ecologists_(France)) to form a “[Popular Front](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Popular_Front)” in order to avoid the “worst” outcome.[[5]](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_French_legislative_election#cite_note-5)
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### Author:  [@PatrickLondon](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/PatrickLondon)
#### Post date: [June 11, 2024, 6:22am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2024-french-legislative-election/1002713/3 "2024-06-11T06:22:48Z")
Presumably he’s gambling on all the not-RN parties to come together in the second round to keep them out - to the ultimate benefit of his party. The left groupings have already started trying to consolidate but have difficulties with their most egocentric headline personality, so maybe Macron can peel off enough of them to form a majority after the second round:
> **[Can France's left wing unify to counter far right in legislative elections?](https://www.rfi.fr/en/france/20240610-can-france-s-left-wing-unify-to-counter-far-right-in-legislative-elections)**
>
> French leftist and green parties won over 31 percent of the vote in Sunday’s European parliament election, but they can only hope to face down the far right in the upcoming snap legislative elections…
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### Author:  [@Measure\_for\_Measure](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Measure_for_Measure)
#### Post date: [June 11, 2024, 6:23am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2024-french-legislative-election/1002713/4 "2024-06-11T06:23:05Z")
I found this overview of political parties in France:
> **[The main political parties in France - About-France.com](https://about-france.com/political-parties.htm)**
>
> An overview of the main political parties in France, and a comparison with British and US political parties
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### Author:  [@PastTense](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/PastTense)
#### Post date: [June 28, 2024, 2:40pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2024-french-legislative-election/1002713/5 "2024-06-28T14:40:08Z")
**French far-right extends poll lead as campaign ends**
> A new OpinionWay poll published by Les Echos newspaper on Friday showed the RN could reach as much as 37% of the popular vote, up two percentage points on its score a week ago.
>
> Macron’s centrist bloc Together party was seen reaching 20%, down by two points from the last publication. The New Popular Front leftwing alliance stood at an unchanged 28% of the vote.
>
> BFM TV, in a different poll compiled by Elabe, calculated that the RN and allies could end up with 260-295 seats in the new parliament - potentially crossing the 289-seat bar for an absolute majority giving them a clear mandate to govern.
[https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/french-far-right-extends-poll-lead-as-campaign-ends/ar-BB1p3Zkh?ocid=hpmsn&cvid=4a781c83d4e94d32e0e4ceb5067f7955&ei=57](https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/french-far-right-extends-poll-lead-as-campaign-ends/ar-BB1p3Zkh?ocid=hpmsn&cvid=4a781c83d4e94d32e0e4ceb5067f7955&ei=57)
So it looks like it was a very big mistake to call this snap election.
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### Author:  [@PatrickLondon](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/PatrickLondon)
#### Post date: [June 30, 2024, 5:19pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2024-french-legislative-election/1002713/6 "2024-06-30T17:19:12Z")
Turnout appears to be substantially up on previous first-round legislative elections. France 24 is reporting 65.5%. Which party has attracted previously apathetic voters to turn out for or against them remains to be seen.
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### Author:  [@PatrickLondon](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/PatrickLondon)
#### Post date: [June 30, 2024, 7:42pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2024-french-legislative-election/1002713/7 "2024-06-30T19:42:43Z")
Hmm. First round exit polls:
RN (far right) 33.5%
NFP alliance (left parties) 28.1%
Renaissance (Macron’s centrist party) and allies 20.7%
Républicains (mainstream conservatives) 10%
(plus handfuls of other small parties)
[https://www.publicsenat.fr/actualites/politique/legislatives-2024-tous-les-resultats-en-temps-reel](https://www.publicsenat.fr/actualites/politique/legislatives-2024-tous-les-resultats-en-temps-reel)
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### Author:  [@PhillyGuy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/PhillyGuy)
#### Post date: [July 2, 2024, 12:18am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2024-french-legislative-election/1002713/8 "2024-07-02T00:18:26Z")
> [@PastTense](#):
>
> So it looks like it was a very big mistake to call this snap election.
Are there some links I should read to understand that better?
The rest of this is probably all wrong, and I will post expecting to be corrected by those who know wrong.
If the National Rally wins an absolute majority, correct, big mistake. Democracy dies, or at least goes into suspended animation, because Le Pen will change the electoral system to insure her party stays in power for a very long time.
But isn’t a National Rally majority unlikely? News reports imply that, for the runoff, there will only be two candidates in almost all districts. And if I’m a strategic voter who wants to block both Jordan Bardella and Jean-Luc Mélenchon, I’m actually going to vote for the Popular Front on grounds that (a) they have no chance of gaining power and (b) it will block the National Rally from gaining a majority. I’ll do this even if I am center-right and find Bardella a little less poisonous than Mélenchon. So logically, Barella is screwed. Wrong?
If I am correct, and there is going to be a hung parliament, Macron gets to appoint some sort of non-political prime minister who will let Macron continue to run foreign policy. No problem if you aren’t French, and maybe no problem at all? Correct? Totally wrong?
P.S. If the National Rally loses in the way I suggest, is this going to create a lot of resentment so that they are more likely to win it all next time?
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### Author:  [@PastTense](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/PastTense)
#### Post date: [July 2, 2024, 12:27am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2024-french-legislative-election/1002713/9 "2024-07-02T00:27:32Z")
There are massive disagreements between Macron and the Popular Front too.
> **[What A New Left-Wing Alliance Means for France](https://time.com/6991254/macron-bardella-le-pen-far-right-left-election/)**
>
> France's main left-wing parties have banded together to defeat the far right. They may end up thwarting Macron, too.
> **[Forget the far right. It’s the left that may squeeze Macron.](https://www.politico.eu/article/left-wing-alliance-new-popular-front-greens-socialists-communists-jean-luc-melenchon-france-unbowed-lfi-france-emmanuel-macron/)**
>
> Macron’s weakened coalition could lose almost all its representation in parliament in the legislative elections, strangling his centrist agenda
> **[French left-wing alliance New Popular Front vows 'total break' with Macron...](https://www.france24.com/en/europe/20240614-french-leftwing-alliance-new-popular-front-vows-to-break-with-macron-policies)**
>
> France's left put up a united front on Friday, vowing a "total break" with President Emmanuel Macron's policies if it wins historic polls, while far-right figurehead Marine Le Pen pledged a "national…
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### Author:  [@alphaboi867](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/alphaboi867)
#### Post date: [July 2, 2024, 7:20pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2024-french-legislative-election/1002713/10 "2024-07-02T19:20:02Z")
> [@PhillyGuy](#):
>
> If the National Rally wins an absolute majority, correct, big mistake. Democracy dies, or at least goes into suspended animation, because Le Pen will change the electoral system to insure her party stays in power for a very long time.
Well Macron can always dissolve the National Assembly again after 12 months ( maybe sooner if the government looses a confidence vote?). I’m not sure how much power the Senate has or how many senators National Rally has, but the President of the Republic doesn’t have a veto.
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### Author:  [@Cervaise](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Cervaise)
#### Post date: [July 7, 2024, 6:54pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2024-french-legislative-election/1002713/11 "2024-07-07T18:54:12Z")
It’s still early, but it appears France may have dodged a bullet.
> **[Live updates: French leftists win most seats in legislative elections,...](https://apnews.com/live/france-election-results-updates-round-2-macron-le-pen)**
>
> The first projections say French leftists have won most seats in legislative elections. The surprise projections put President Emmanuel Macron’s centrist alliance in second and the far right in third.
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### Author:  [@Fiendish\_Astronaut](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Fiendish_Astronaut)
#### Post date: [July 7, 2024, 8:01pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2024-french-legislative-election/1002713/12 "2024-07-07T20:01:56Z")
There’s a good spreadsheet being updated here that is publicly viewable:
> **[Legislatives 2024 runoffs - Google Drive](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/12guAVEBrU3nk7lh6zqCozzfzKCP4ZDsK8isC1TOiWYY/edit?gid=2050634150#gid=2050634150)**
>
> This Sheet is private
The centre-left alliance will form the new government but if it doesn’t work Le Pen and her ilk will be the ones who can pick up the pieces.
For the time being it’s bad news for Putin and there cannot be another election for at least a year.
MAGAs on Twitter already calling it rigged of course…
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### Author:  [@DSeid](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DSeid)
#### Post date: [July 7, 2024, 8:54pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2024-french-legislative-election/1002713/13 "2024-07-07T20:54:28Z")
_Is there_ a center left alliance, at least yet?
The Leftist alliance of The New Popular Front and Macron’s Renaissance party were united with a common foe (and boy what change in fortune from first to third) but can they find common ground to govern from?
I think it would go in order New Popular Front and if not successful then Renaissance trying to get enough of them to break ranks and join.
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### Author:  [@PhillyGuy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/PhillyGuy)
#### Post date: [July 8, 2024, 12:11am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2024-french-legislative-election/1002713/14 "2024-07-08T00:11:59Z")
> [@Fiendish\_Astronaut](#):
>
> There’s a good spreadsheet being updated here that is publicly viewable:
>
> [Legislatives 2024 runoffs - Google Sheets](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/12guAVEBrU3nk7lh6zqCozzfzKCP4ZDsK8isC1TOiWYY/edit?gid=2050634150#gid=2050634150)
The spreadsheet says all 577 seats have now been called. New Popular Front has just under a third of the seats. Possible coalition arithmetic looks very difficult to me, but I do not know much about French politics.
Is there are breakdown of how each of the four constituent parts of thr New Popular Front did?
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### Author:  [@PatrickLondon](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/PatrickLondon)
#### Post date: [July 8, 2024, 5:22am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2024-french-legislative-election/1002713/15 "2024-07-08T05:22:03Z")
Here’s a final outline:
[ ](https://imagizer.imageshack.com/img923/8431/SUHcR8.png)
> **[INFOGRAPHIES. Résultats des élections législatives 2024 : découvrez la...](https://www.francetvinfo.fr/elections/legislatives/infographies-resultats-des-elections-legislatives-2024-decouvrez-en-direct-la-composition-de-l-assemblee-nationale_6645201.html)**
>
> Visualisez la couleur politique des nouveaux députés et la répartition des sièges au sein de chaque bloc. Cette page, mise à jour avec les résultats définitifs, dessine le nouvel hémicycle au sein du Palais-Bourbon.
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### Author:  [@Cervaise](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Cervaise)
#### Post date: [July 8, 2024, 12:46pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2024-french-legislative-election/1002713/16 "2024-07-08T12:46:04Z")
This is an excellent (and lengthy) article summarizing the current situation and the prospects for how a government might emerge. Recommended reading for those curious about what happens next.
> **[Who will govern France? Four questions to understand what happens after the...](https://www.lemonde.fr/en/les-decodeurs/article/2024/07/08/who-will-govern-france-four-questions-to-understand-what-happens-after-the-election_6677397_8.html)**
>
> Could France be led by a coalition government, minority government or technical government? In the absence of a clear absolute majority in the Assemblée Nationale, there is a risk of deadlock.
Short version: there’s no clear, obvious path forward, and things are about to get really messy and difficult.
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### Author:  [@DSeid](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DSeid)
#### Post date: [July 8, 2024, 1:36pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2024-french-legislative-election/1002713/17 "2024-07-08T13:36:47Z")
Thank you for that. Very helpful.
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### Author:  [@Left\_Hand\_of\_Dorkness](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Left_Hand_of_Dorkness)
#### Post date: [July 8, 2024, 1:42pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2024-french-legislative-election/1002713/18 "2024-07-08T13:42:25Z")
Yes, thank you, that’s really helpful!
What are the major policy position differences between the centrists and the left? Is there room for negotiation between the two?
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### Author:  [@DSeid](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DSeid)
#### Post date: [July 8, 2024, 1:48pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2024-french-legislative-election/1002713/19 "2024-07-08T13:48:24Z")
Would Macron agreeing to reverse the pension age thing be enough? (That seems to have a big thing to the Left.)
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### Author:  [@Cervaise](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Cervaise)
#### Post date: [July 8, 2024, 4:03pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2024-french-legislative-election/1002713/20 "2024-07-08T16:03:18Z")
I’m observing from across the border, so I hesitate to offer an opinion and would defer to someone actually in-country. I can tell you, though, that most people who call themselves Left _loathe_ Macron and I’m doubtful about any deal being reached through simple horse-trading.
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