# 2024 Hurricane Season **URL:** \ **Category:** Miscellaneous and Personal Stuff I Must Share\ **Created:** [June 19, 2024, 10:15pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2024-hurricane-season/1003076 "2024-06-19T22:15:31Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 3
**Author:** ![PastTense](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/pasttense/32/14550_2.png) [@PastTense](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/PastTense)\ **Post date:** [August 4, 2024, 4:10pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2024-hurricane-season/1003076/41 "2024-08-04T16:10:34Z")
> **[Tropical Storm Debby gaining strength in Gulf of Mexico » Yale Climate...](https://yaleclimateconnections.org/2024/08/tropical-storm-debby-gaining-strength-in-gulf-of-mexico/)** > > Debby is predicted to strike Florida's Big Bend as a hurricane, then linger for days while dumping torrential rains over the coastal Southeast. ---
**Author:** ![LSLGuy](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lslguy/32/5813_2.png) [@LSLGuy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/LSLGuy)\ **Post date:** [August 4, 2024, 5:24pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2024-hurricane-season/1003076/42 "2024-08-04T17:24:39Z")
See also this thread for Debby-specific content: > [@Debby's getting frisky! (Tropical Storm Debby)](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/debbys-getting-frisky-tropical-storm-debby/1005224): > > And that’s one for the money! Two for the show! Three to get ready! 'Cause Debby’s ready to blow! [https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/](https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/) - General NHC site [Tropical Storm Debby Forecast Discussion](https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDAT4+shtml/040249.shtml) - Latest forecast discussion [https://www.trackthetropics.com/](https://www.trackthetropics.com/) - Hands-down the best site for comprehensive assembly of tons of information including the ‘spaghetti’ models. Even pros keep this one in their bookmarks. Here we go. After a very slow burn start, Debby is coming to absolutely drench Florida. Curr… ---
**Author:** ![PastTense](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/pasttense/32/14550_2.png) [@PastTense](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/PastTense)\ **Post date:** [August 13, 2024, 1:54pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2024-hurricane-season/1003076/43 "2024-08-13T13:54:54Z")
> **[Gales, torrential rains headed for the northeast Caribbean » Yale Climate...](https://yaleclimateconnections.org/2024/08/gales-torrential-rains-headed-for-the-northeast-caribbean/)** > > Tropical Storm Ernesto will sweep through the region from Tuesday into Wednesday. > **[Puerto Rico cancels classes, activates National Guard as Tropical Storm...](https://www.npr.org/2024/08/13/g-s1-16722/puerto-rico-storm-ernesto)** > > Puerto Rico activated the National Guard and canceled the start of classes in public schools as forecasters warned that the U.S. territory would be hit by Tropical Storm Ernesto. ---
**Author:** ![PastTense](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/pasttense/32/14550_2.png) [@PastTense](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/PastTense)\ **Post date:** [August 15, 2024, 5:41am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2024-hurricane-season/1003076/44 "2024-08-15T05:41:16Z")
> **[Ernesto to become a major hurricane, threaten Bermuda, Canada](https://www.accuweather.com/en/hurricane/ernesto-to-become-a-major-hurricane-threaten-bermuda-canada/1679990)** > > Ernesto may track close enough to Bermuda for the eye to brush the islands this weekend prior to a landfall in Atlantic Canada early next week. ---
**Author:** ![Ludovic](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/l/7ab992/32.png) [@Ludovic](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Ludovic)\ **Post date:** [August 21, 2024, 3:19pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2024-hurricane-season/1003076/45 "2024-08-21T15:19:33Z")
And now it looks like it gave Canada a miss but may hit Iceland and Ireland. While still a cyclone it shouldn’t be that large compared to what they occasionally get anyway: as a matter of fact there is a storm just north of Ernesto that looks even more powerful than it is which was never a hurricane at all. They predict that the two storms will merge and then slide in between the islands relatively safely. ---
**Author:** ![Loach](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/loach/32/350_2.png) [@Loach](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Loach)\ **Post date:** [August 21, 2024, 7:47pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2024-hurricane-season/1003076/46 "2024-08-21T19:47:26Z")
I’ve been down at the Jersey Shore for the week. Ernesto really churned up the surf. For a few days there were 6-8 foot curls. Today the ocean looks like a lake. ---
**Author:** ![PastTense](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/pasttense/32/14550_2.png) [@PastTense](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/PastTense)\ **Post date:** [August 22, 2024, 3:39pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2024-hurricane-season/1003076/47 "2024-08-22T15:39:12Z")
More and bigger hurricanes coming: > **[Supercharged September: Atlantic hurricane season to intensify dramatically](https://www.accuweather.com/en/hurricane/supercharged-september-atlantic-hurricane-season-to-intensify-dramatically/1683206)** > > As the Atlantic hurricane season approaches its peak, AccuWeather meteorologists warn of a dramatic surge in tropical storms and hurricanes, potentially rivaling the record-breaking activity of 2020. ---
**Author:** ![LSLGuy](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lslguy/32/5813_2.png) [@LSLGuy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/LSLGuy)\ **Post date:** [August 22, 2024, 4:23pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2024-hurricane-season/1003076/48 "2024-08-22T16:23:20Z")
Here’s a similar message about the data and forecasts but with none of so-called “accu” weather’s hysterical hype. > **[Never call it a bust: Hurricane season takes a late August siesta, so what’s...](https://theeyewall.com/never-call-it-a-bust-hurricane-season-takes-a-late-august-siesta-so-whats-going-on/)** > > Coming into this hurricane season, there were breathless forecasts calling for anywhere from 20 to even 30 named storms from some folks. Government forecasts were more conservative but even they we… ---
**Author:** ![Ludovic](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/l/7ab992/32.png) [@Ludovic](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Ludovic)\ **Post date:** [August 25, 2024, 12:21am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2024-hurricane-season/1003076/49 "2024-08-25T00:21:39Z")
Typhoon Shanshan is heading toward Japan and is expected to still be hurricane strength when it hits. I don’t know what the error bars are for its course and strength, but the median path seems to be Osaka in the path of 100 mph winds and exposed to a storm surge. I’m not sure how bad it’s going to be because I can’t find anyone freaking out about it on the Reddit thread, but it seems that since the winds will be coming from the direct south, the surrounding islands will funnel the water into an almost perfect inverted “V” shape to exacerbate the surge. ---
**Author:** ![PastTense](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/pasttense/32/14550_2.png) [@PastTense](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/PastTense)\ **Post date:** [September 10, 2024, 2:28pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2024-hurricane-season/1003076/50 "2024-09-10T14:28:58Z")
> **[Hurricane Watches go up for Louisiana as Tropical Storm Francine forms » Yale...](https://yaleclimateconnections.org/2024/09/hurricane-watches-go-up-for-louisiana-as-tropical-storm-francine-forms/)** > > The National Hurricane Center predicts Francine will be a Cat 1 hurricane with 85 mph winds at landfall in Louisiana on Wednesday. ---
**Author:** ![PastTense](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/pasttense/32/14550_2.png) [@PastTense](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/PastTense)\ **Post date:** [September 23, 2024, 6:23pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2024-hurricane-season/1003076/51 "2024-09-23T18:23:10Z")
> **[Fast-emerging system likely to slam Florida Gulf Coast as a dangerous...](https://yaleclimateconnections.org/2024/09/fast-emerging-system-likely-to-slam-florida-gulf-coast-as-a-dangerous-hurricane-helene-on-thursday/)** > > Potential Tropical Cyclone 9 could become a landfalling major hurricane for the Florida Gulf Coast on Thursday. Named Helene. ---
**Author:** ![LSLGuy](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lslguy/32/5813_2.png) [@LSLGuy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/LSLGuy)\ **Post date:** [September 24, 2024, 12:29am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2024-hurricane-season/1003076/52 "2024-09-24T00:29:03Z")
Nitpick: Nope. Named Potential Tropical Cyclone (“PTC”) 9. It’s expected to be renamed to TD 9, then Tropical Storm Helene then Hurricane Helene _if_ the global weather evolves as expected. But not yet. Stuff still might change. ---
**Author:** ![EddyTeddyFreddy](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/eddyteddyfreddy/32/18796_2.png) [@EddyTeddyFreddy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/EddyTeddyFreddy)\ **Post date:** [September 24, 2024, 1:43am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2024-hurricane-season/1003076/53 "2024-09-24T01:43:02Z")
Watching the Weather Channel now and they’re showing a convergence of prediction paths through the Florida Panhandle; beyond that the various models start to diverge as the storm moves north, but the elbow of Florida seems to be the consensus landing place. ---
**Author:** ![LSLGuy](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lslguy/32/5813_2.png) [@LSLGuy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/LSLGuy)\ **Post date:** [September 24, 2024, 2:30am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2024-hurricane-season/1003076/54 "2024-09-24T02:30:30Z")
Digging into more detailed sites there is still some likelihood of it sliding further right/east. Because of the shallow angle of approach to the peninsular coast, that means a relatively small change in storm track can slide the impacts a long way south. IOW: Tampa’s in no danger of taking a direct hit, but if the storm gets big enough and strong enough they could still see conditions resembling a pretty good tropical storm and surge even though landfall of the eye would occur 150+ miles north. ---
**Author:** ![Zakalwe](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/zakalwe/32/270_2.png) [@Zakalwe](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Zakalwe)\ **Post date:** [September 24, 2024, 3:07am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2024-hurricane-season/1003076/55 "2024-09-24T03:07:51Z")
And we are in the middle of the cone as of 8pm tonight with the track showing the center line about 20 miles east of my house. Gonna be a tense few days here in the ZakHouse. Gennie is out and on the charger (for the electric start battery). Wife is going to do a little shopping tomorrow and I’m filling up the Jeep on the way to work (long lines this evening). ---
**Author:** ![kenobi\_65](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/kenobi_65/32/13178_2.png) [@kenobi\_65](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/kenobi_65)\ **Post date:** [September 24, 2024, 4:36am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2024-hurricane-season/1003076/56 "2024-09-24T04:36:11Z")
> [@LSLGuy](#): > > IOW: Tampa’s in no danger of taking a direct hit, but if the storm gets big enough and strong enough they could still see conditions resembling a pretty good tropical storm and surge even though landfall of the eye would occur 150+ miles north. And, the NHC says that’s a distinct possibility. From [tonight’s 11pm ET forecast discussion](https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDAT4+shtml/240239.shtml) (emphasis mine): > [@](#): > > It should also be noted that the cyclone is expected to grow in > size while it traverses the Gulf. Thus, the storm surge, wind, and > rainfall impacts will extend well away from the center, **particularly > to the east of the system**. In addition, the fast forward speed > while it crosses the coast will likely result in farther inland > penetration of strong winds over parts of the southeastern United > States after landfall. ---
**Author:** ![LSLGuy](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lslguy/32/5813_2.png) [@LSLGuy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/LSLGuy)\ **Post date:** [September 24, 2024, 1:06pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2024-hurricane-season/1003076/57 "2024-09-24T13:06:42Z")
Latest discussion from a blogger I respect. Which contains a bunch of commentary about eye landfall location uncertainty and the wide range of possible impacts due to that. > **[PTC 9 continues to get itself in order as we focus on the risks to Florida...](https://theeyewall.com/ptc-9-continues-to-get-itself-in-order-as-we-focus-on-the-risks-to-florida-and-beyond/)** > > Headlines PTC 9 continues to fight off a little shear which is slowing its initial organization. As that relaxes, rapid intensification and organization should ensue, with PTC 9 expected to become … ---
**Author:** ![Moriarty](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/moriarty/32/49_2.png) [@Moriarty](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Moriarty)\ **Post date:** [September 24, 2024, 2:28pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2024-hurricane-season/1003076/58 "2024-09-24T14:28:38Z")
> [@LSLGuy](#): > > Tampa’s in no danger of taking a direct hit, but if the storm gets big enough and strong enough they could still see conditions resembling a pretty good tropical storm and surge even though landfall of the eye would occur 150+ miles north. I’m in a coastal county just north of Tampa. Today the grand Pooh-bahs at the courthouse are convening to decide if they’re closed Thursday, and I’ve already been instructed by my office to lay out sandbags Wednesday after work. Is it weird that I’m sort of rooting for it to move this way? I could go for a change of pace. ---
**Author:** ![LSLGuy](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lslguy/32/5813_2.png) [@LSLGuy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/LSLGuy)\ **Post date:** [September 24, 2024, 2:57pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2024-hurricane-season/1003076/59 "2024-09-24T14:57:02Z")
Be careful what you wish for. One of my co-workers lived 2-1/2 miles inland in Fort Myers and not near any estuary or canal. After Ian was done they had to live in a 5th wheel trailer in their front yard for 2 years while their house was rebuilt from the foundation up. The ocean had been 6 feet deep throughout their house for over a day. ---
**Author:** ![Zakalwe](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/zakalwe/32/270_2.png) [@Zakalwe](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Zakalwe)\ **Post date:** [September 25, 2024, 2:15am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2024-hurricane-season/1003076/60 "2024-09-25T02:15:29Z")
So based on the 11a track today, the actual center line of the track passes less than a mile from my house and it’s still expected to be a Cat3 or Cat2 at that time. Frankly, we would leave, but I don’t know where to go - everywhere I have places is in the cone and I would still be worried about the house. The uncertainty is too large and we could end up worse than we are here. I’ve got a solid house, have done my prep (which pretty much guarantees the storm won’t hit here), and have resources to call on if I need help. I’ve lived in Florida my whole life. I’ve been through lots of 'canes. I’d rather be where I know the people around me and I can help them or they can help me. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2024-hurricane-season/1003076.md?page=2) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2024-hurricane-season/1003076.md?page=4)