# 2024 Oscar (96th Academy Awards) Nominations **URL:** \ **Category:** Cafe Society\ **Tags:** movies\ **Created:** [January 23, 2024, 2:46pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2024-oscar-96th-academy-awards-nominations/996545 "2024-01-23T14:46:04Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 6
**Author:** ![Maserschmidt](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/maserschmidt/32/18829_2.png) [@Maserschmidt](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Maserschmidt)\ **Post date:** [March 6, 2024, 1:14pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2024-oscar-96th-academy-awards-nominations/996545/101 "2024-03-06T13:14:08Z")
Yeah, Neon claimed that it was 59% non-English, but even if that was precisely correct that might’ve been close enough to 50% to hurt its chances to even be nominated. ---
**Author:** ![Eyebrows\_0f\_Doom](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/eyebrows_0f_doom/32/3119_2.png) [@Eyebrows\_0f\_Doom](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Eyebrows_0f_Doom)\ **Post date:** [March 6, 2024, 2:51pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2024-oscar-96th-academy-awards-nominations/996545/102 "2024-03-06T14:51:50Z")
> [@wolfpup](#): > > And I’m also willing to bet that neither Sandra Hüller, _The Holdovers_, _Oppenheimer_, or _Anatomy of a Fall_ is going to win, because of industry politics. I will take that bet, re: **Oppenheimer**. I think the entire industry will be shocked if that doesn’t win. So what _do_ you think is going to win? ---
**Author:** ![Dewey\_Finn](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dewey_finn/32/4222_2.png) [@Dewey\_Finn](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Dewey_Finn)\ **Post date:** [March 6, 2024, 3:07pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2024-oscar-96th-academy-awards-nominations/996545/103 "2024-03-06T15:07:44Z")
I agree. I will be very surprised if Oppenheimer _doesn’t_ win. ---
**Author:** ![Eyebrows\_0f\_Doom](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/eyebrows_0f_doom/32/3119_2.png) [@Eyebrows\_0f\_Doom](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Eyebrows_0f_Doom)\ **Post date:** [March 6, 2024, 3:11pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2024-oscar-96th-academy-awards-nominations/996545/104 "2024-03-06T15:11:03Z")
I also think Anatomy of a Fall will take Best Original Screenplay. ---
**Author:** ![wolfpup](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/wolfpup/32/10618_2.png) [@wolfpup](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/wolfpup)\ **Post date:** [March 6, 2024, 3:11pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2024-oscar-96th-academy-awards-nominations/996545/105 "2024-03-06T15:11:46Z")
> [@Eyebrows\_0f\_Doom](#): > > So what _do_ you think is going to win? Based on how things have gone in the past, _American Fiction_, _Killers of the Flower Moon_, or (less likely) _Barbie_, all of which have a “social message”, and all of which I’d personally rank near the bottom of the ten nominees. ---
**Author:** ![Eyebrows\_0f\_Doom](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/eyebrows_0f_doom/32/3119_2.png) [@Eyebrows\_0f\_Doom](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Eyebrows_0f_Doom)\ **Post date:** [March 6, 2024, 3:13pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2024-oscar-96th-academy-awards-nominations/996545/106 "2024-03-06T15:13:23Z")
I want you in my Oscar pool. 😆 ---
**Author:** ![peccavi](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/peccavi/32/388_2.png) [@peccavi](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/peccavi)\ **Post date:** [March 6, 2024, 3:24pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2024-oscar-96th-academy-awards-nominations/996545/107 "2024-03-06T15:24:00Z")
I quickly searched on a site with the oddsmakers assessments for the Oscars ([this site](https://www.rotowire.com/betting/oscars-odds), which has the distinction of being the top site returned on search that my work firewall will actually allow me to open). I don’t make any claim as to its predictive power. - Oppenheimer (-5000) - Poor Things (+2000) - The Holdovers (+2500) - The Zone of Interest (+2500) - Barbie (+3500) - Anatomy of a Fall (+4000) - Killers of the Flower Moon (+6500) - American Fiction (+8000) - Past Lives (+10000) - Maestro (+15000) @wolfpup, you can really clean up on your picks- big money! _Oppenheimer_ seems to be the heavy favorite across most of its categories. _Zone of Interest_ is odds on to win the International Feature Award, which I sort of predicted above. It played forever on the Westside of Los Angeles, which is local for the Academy demographic. ---
**Author:** ![Maserschmidt](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/maserschmidt/32/18829_2.png) [@Maserschmidt](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Maserschmidt)\ **Post date:** [March 6, 2024, 3:52pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2024-oscar-96th-academy-awards-nominations/996545/108 "2024-03-06T15:52:21Z")
Mysteriously, all 26 woke critics at the Gold Derby have unanimously picked Oppenheimer as the likely winner. Unanimously! Smells like conspiracy. [GoldDerby](https://www.goldderby.com/awardshows/expert-predictions/oscars-winners-2024-predictions/sort/recent/) ETA: on the other hand, if you don’t like the woke parade, Armond White has your back. He says all 10 nominees are terrible, and John Wick 4, Rebel Moon, All of Us Strangers, The Taste of Things, and Asteroid City are the obvious choices. [Hollywood Awards Season Politics Turn Critics into Lobbyists | National Review](https://www.nationalreview.com/2024/01/rushing-to-bad-movie-judgment/) ---
**Author:** ![wolfpup](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/wolfpup/32/10618_2.png) [@wolfpup](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/wolfpup)\ **Post date:** [March 6, 2024, 4:08pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2024-oscar-96th-academy-awards-nominations/996545/109 "2024-03-06T16:08:45Z")
Maybe I was too cynical. It the oddsmakers are right, two of the three films I liked least are indeed near the bottom of the list. In fact that list closely parallels my assessment of merit, except at the very least I would move _Anatomy of a Fall_ above _Barbie_. The basis of my cynicism is in questioning the degree to which merit is actually a big factor in Oscar decisions. As for _Oppenheimer_, I’m surprised it’s such a heavy favourite, but I certainly won’t be disappointed if it wins. Besides the skillful storytelling, it’s certainly the most lavish production of all the nominees; the absolutely gigantic reel of 70mm 15-perf film requires a big forklift or crane to move around. The vast majority probably saw it in some digital form, but film IMAX is how Nolan really intended it to be seen. ---
**Author:** ![That\_Don\_Guy](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/that_don_guy/32/538_2.png) [@That\_Don\_Guy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/That_Don_Guy)\ **Post date:** [March 6, 2024, 7:31pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2024-oscar-96th-academy-awards-nominations/996545/110 "2024-03-06T19:31:36Z")
> [@peccavi](#): > > I quickly searched on a site with the oddsmakers assessments for the Oscars ([this site](https://www.rotowire.com/betting/oscars-odds), which has the distinction of being the top site returned on search that my work firewall will actually allow me to open). I don’t make any claim as to its predictive power. > > - Oppenheimer (-5000) > - Poor Things (+2000) > - The Holdovers (+2500) > - The Zone of Interest (+2500) > - Barbie (+3500) > - Anatomy of a Fall (+4000) > - Killers of the Flower Moon (+6500) > - American Fiction (+8000) > - Past Lives (+10000) > - Maestro (+15000) > > @wolfpup, you can really clean up on your picks- big money! I was going to suggest making a “field bet” on “all of them except _Oppenheimer_,” but when I crunched the numbers, the odds were only +253. ---
**Author:** ![Maserschmidt](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/maserschmidt/32/18829_2.png) [@Maserschmidt](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Maserschmidt)\ **Post date:** [March 6, 2024, 8:02pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2024-oscar-96th-academy-awards-nominations/996545/111 "2024-03-06T20:02:23Z")
If anyone is interested in this kind of thing, I’ve always been entertained by Thomas Flight’s film analysis. Here he talks about what he thinks should win in all the broadcast categories, and what he thinks might win. [![](https://img.youtube.com/vi/pt9sRLrvw-8/maxresdefault.jpg "Who Should Win at The Oscars 2024?") ](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pt9sRLrvw-8) ---
**Author:** ![Mean\_Mr.Mustard](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/mean_mr.mustard/32/3865_2.png) [@Mean\_Mr.Mustard](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Mean_Mr.Mustard)\ **Post date:** [March 6, 2024, 9:14pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2024-oscar-96th-academy-awards-nominations/996545/112 "2024-03-06T21:14:21Z")
> [@Maserschmidt](#): > > Private Lives (ahem)…“ **_Past_ Lives** ”, lest anyone get confused. Speaking of which, I don’t expect it to win, but I hope folks see it because it is really, really good. I have seen 9 of the 10 Best Picture nominees (still missing “ **Killers of the Flower Moon** ”). My prediction is that “ **Poor Things** ” will win. I think about it perhaps once a week, and every time I do I decide that I like it a little more. I just noticed that on the Gold Derby site that “Killers…” has knocked “Poor Things” out of second place. “ **Oppenheimer** ” remains the favorite. mmm ---
**Author:** ![Maserschmidt](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/maserschmidt/32/18829_2.png) [@Maserschmidt](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Maserschmidt)\ **Post date:** [March 6, 2024, 9:44pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2024-oscar-96th-academy-awards-nominations/996545/113 "2024-03-06T21:44:53Z")
If you want to see the careful thought that goes into a ballot, here is this year’s first “brutally honest Oscar ballot”. > **[Brutally Honest Oscar Ballot No. 1: ‘Zone of Interest’ Is Best Picture, but...](https://www.hollywoodreporter.com/movies/movie-news/academy-voter-shares-oscar-votes-1235837796/)** > > This member of the Academy's short films and feature animation branch also says that 'Oppenheimer' "makes me sad that one day I'm going to die, because I won't get to see movies like this." > … and even though it’s cheesy I’ll be real with you: I met Downey at an [awards](https://www.hollywoodreporter.com/t/awards/) season party, we had an interaction that I did not initiate, and it tipped the scales for me. Campaigning matters! (_Laughs._ ) ---
**Author:** ![wolfpup](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/wolfpup/32/10618_2.png) [@wolfpup](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/wolfpup)\ **Post date:** [March 7, 2024, 12:25am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2024-oscar-96th-academy-awards-nominations/996545/114 "2024-03-07T00:25:19Z")
At the time of my last few comments I had seen less than half of _Poor Things_ but formed a snap judgment that I liked the refreshing originality. Now that I’ve seen the whole thing, I’m a-rootin’ for it! Nominated for 11 Oscars and I think it deserves many of them. It’s obviously got very steep competition for Best Picture, and Emma Stone likewise has steep competition for Best Actress, but a bunch of Oscars for things like set design, cinematography, writing, film editing, and others are probably up for grabs and I hope it snags many of them. ---
**Author:** ![Chingon](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/chingon/32/17645_2.png) [@Chingon](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Chingon)\ **Post date:** [March 7, 2024, 12:31am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2024-oscar-96th-academy-awards-nominations/996545/115 "2024-03-07T00:31:12Z")
> [@wolfpup](#): > > And I’m also willing to bet that neither Sandra Hüller, _The Holdovers_, _Oppenheimer_, or _Anatomy of a Fall_ is going to win, because of industry politics. You’ve heavily hinted that undeserving movies are getting recognized because they contain elements you find woke. Can you be more specific? I assume it’s American Fiction and Killers of the Flower Moon because they have large minority casts (or at least a large enough part of the story involves non white men)? Do you think they’re objectively non deserving of praise? ---
**Author:** ![wolfpup](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/wolfpup/32/10618_2.png) [@wolfpup](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/wolfpup)\ **Post date:** [March 7, 2024, 1:19am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2024-oscar-96th-academy-awards-nominations/996545/116 "2024-03-07T01:19:27Z")
You’re grossly misreading what “industry politics” means here, which I’ve already explained. I’d especially strongly appreciate it if you didn’t make nasty and baseless innuendos about what I’m supposedly “hinting”. Thanks. ---
**Author:** ![digs](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/digs/32/14889_2.png) [@digs](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/digs)\ **Post date:** [March 7, 2024, 1:24am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2024-oscar-96th-academy-awards-nominations/996545/117 "2024-03-07T01:24:35Z")
Do you mind explaining again what you mean by _Industry Politics?_ I must have missed it. Thanks. ---
**Author:** ![wolfpup](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/wolfpup/32/10618_2.png) [@wolfpup](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/wolfpup)\ **Post date:** [March 7, 2024, 1:43am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2024-oscar-96th-academy-awards-nominations/996545/118 "2024-03-07T01:43:05Z")
Sure, I touched on it **[in this post](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2024-oscar-96th-academy-awards-nominations/996545/53)** but there are also many other factors that contribute to industry politics. For instance, the Academy loves movies about itself – _La La Land_ didn’t win BP, but it did get nominated and was widely expected to win – and for the record, I liked that movie _even less_ than any of this year’s nominees (except maybe _Maestro_, which I’d also place near the bottom of the list). Other “politics” issues are things like “body of work” considerations for long-time filmmakers and performers who have not yet won an Oscar, and a film’s popularity and theatrical exposure – all of which are quite distinct from merit. ---
**Author:** ![wolfpup](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/wolfpup/32/10618_2.png) [@wolfpup](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/wolfpup)\ **Post date:** [March 7, 2024, 3:03am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2024-oscar-96th-academy-awards-nominations/996545/119 "2024-03-07T03:03:13Z")
I neglected to mention another potentially huge factor alluded to by @Maserschmidt up in post #113 – internal influencing, campaigning, and brown-nosing. Why would industry politics in the film industry be any different than the scourge of corporate politics anywhere? ---
**Author:** ![Chingon](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/chingon/32/17645_2.png) [@Chingon](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Chingon)\ **Post date:** [March 7, 2024, 4:23am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2024-oscar-96th-academy-awards-nominations/996545/120 "2024-03-07T04:23:02Z")
Perhaps I’m dense. But can you explain exactly which “politics” you think are involved? The term "social relevance " is carrying a lot of weight that’s unexplained. I don’t understand why you’re not just saying what it is. I’d also like an explanation of how you know that American Fiction is objectively undeserving of a nomination. Are you suggesting people are pretending to enjoy and respect its artistic merits? [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2024-oscar-96th-academy-awards-nominations/996545.md?page=5) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2024-oscar-96th-academy-awards-nominations/996545.md?page=7)