# 2024 US general election prediction thread **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Created:** [September 22, 2024, 2:52pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2024-us-general-election-prediction-thread/1007585 "2024-09-22T14:52:20Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 2
**Author:** ![BobLibDem](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/boblibdem/32/3149_2.png) [@BobLibDem](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BobLibDem)\ **Post date:** [September 23, 2024, 2:15pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2024-us-general-election-prediction-thread/1007585/21 "2024-09-23T14:15:30Z")
I’ve got Harris 352, Spawn of Satan 182. Harris takes the Biden states plus NC, FL, and IA. Also the Omaha district in NE, unless the “oh my fucking god we gotta change our rules to give another EV to our orange god” movement in NE succeeds and they go to winner-take-all. House 240 D 195 R Senate 51 D 49 R ---
**Author:** ![Win\_Place\_Show](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/win_place_show/32/13469_2.png) [@Win\_Place\_Show](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Win_Place_Show)\ **Post date:** [September 23, 2024, 2:25pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2024-us-general-election-prediction-thread/1007585/22 "2024-09-23T14:25:41Z")
> [@Cervaise](#): > > Regarding the Presidency, the statistical situation, to put it lightly, is still pretty fluid. We’re not yet into October and there’s time for significant developments to shake up the deadlock. But I remain sadly convinced that while Harris will win the popular vote by a couple of percentage points, GOP ratfuckery will allow Trump to steal the White House, legitimately or otherwise. This is how I see it as well, unfortunately. As far as predictions go, the America-hating scumbag got 63 million votes in 2016, and 74 million in 2020 (to President Biden’s 81.3 million). I’m fairly confident that he’s going to exceed Biden’s “previous record” of 81.3 million this time around. ---
**Author:** ![DSeid](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dseid/32/20194_2.png) [@DSeid](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DSeid)\ **Post date:** [September 23, 2024, 4:00pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2024-us-general-election-prediction-thread/1007585/23 "2024-09-23T16:00:58Z")
> [@PhillyGuy](#): > > Do I think that the pollsters have repaired their pro-Democratic tilt? Best guess is – half of it. > > That adds up to somewhere between a tie and Trump win. But it won’t be a tie. And I’m guessing on an overcompensation, that the skew will go the other way by two to three. My completely unscientific gut is feeling that even many of Trump’s supporters are tired of it and enthusiasm for him is ebbing. His turnout will be less than before and D solid. Harris nationally +5.8 EC sweeping the close ones and getting within one point in FL but a near miss. EC 319. ---
**Author:** ![iiandyiiii](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/iiandyiiii/32/7924_2.png) [@iiandyiiii](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/iiandyiiii)\ **Post date:** [October 17, 2024, 10:45pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2024-us-general-election-prediction-thread/1007585/24 "2024-10-17T22:45:41Z")
Bump. How does everyone feel about their predictions? I still feel fine about mine (which I acknowledge is a “feelings” prediction, not a “fact-based” prediction). ---
**Author:** ![Velocity](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/velocity/32/18006_2.png) [@Velocity](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Velocity)\ **Post date:** [October 17, 2024, 10:47pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2024-us-general-election-prediction-thread/1007585/25 "2024-10-17T22:47:50Z")
I’m still certain that Kamala will win with ease. But I no longer think Democrats will take the Senate. A 51-49 Republican majority looks likeliest. The D’s will still have the House though. ---
**Author:** ![Atamasama](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/atamasama/32/12961_2.png) [@Atamasama](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Atamasama)\ **Post date:** [October 17, 2024, 11:39pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2024-us-general-election-prediction-thread/1007585/26 "2024-10-17T23:39:34Z")
> [@Jas09](#): > > Trump will “win” the EC by flipping AZ, GA, NV and getting Nebraska to change its rules making a 269-269 tie and throwing the vote to House delegations. Your prediction already didn’t happen because it’s too late for Nebraska to change anything. > **[Nebraska governor ends push to change the way state awards electoral votes in...](https://www.cnn.com/2024/09/24/politics/nebraska-governor-electoral-votes/index.html)** > > Nebraska Gov. Jim Pillen said Tuesday that he has “no plans to call a special session” to change the way the state allocates electoral votes to a winner-take-all system, ending an effort led by Donald Trump. Note that a month ago it was an “11th hour” attempt. ---
**Author:** ![chappachula](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/c/d2c977/32.png) [@chappachula](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/chappachula)\ **Post date:** [October 18, 2024, 1:31am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2024-us-general-election-prediction-thread/1007585/27 "2024-10-18T01:31:52Z")
Let’s add some fun to this thread: I predict that on election night, the Four Seasons Total Landscaping company in Philadelphia will hold a party. I’m imagining a sort of “neighborhood block party” in their parking lot, open to the public. Big TV screens showing the results, a couple food carts, a reporter from the local news. Could be good advertising, And it would add some much-needed levity to a tense night. 🙂 ---
**Author:** ![flurb](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/f/51bf81/32.png) [@flurb](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/flurb)\ **Post date:** [October 18, 2024, 1:37am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2024-us-general-election-prediction-thread/1007585/28 "2024-10-18T01:37:42Z")
I’ll stand pat. ---
**Author:** ![Jas09](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/j/d07c76/32.png) [@Jas09](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Jas09)\ **Post date:** [October 18, 2024, 2:42am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2024-us-general-election-prediction-thread/1007585/29 "2024-10-18T02:42:16Z")
> [@Atamasama](#): > > Your prediction already didn’t happen because it’s too late for Nebraska to change anything. Woohoo. Happy to have lost already! ---
**Author:** ![Happy\_Fun\_Ball](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/happy_fun_ball/32/17664_2.png) [@Happy\_Fun\_Ball](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Happy_Fun_Ball)\ **Post date:** [October 18, 2024, 4:27am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2024-us-general-election-prediction-thread/1007585/30 "2024-10-18T04:27:13Z")
Will some candidates sing the blues? ---
**Author:** ![Happy\_Fun\_Ball](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/happy_fun_ball/32/17664_2.png) [@Happy\_Fun\_Ball](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Happy_Fun_Ball)\ **Post date:** [October 18, 2024, 4:31am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2024-us-general-election-prediction-thread/1007585/31 "2024-10-18T04:31:29Z")
I feel pretty confident Harris will win with at least a 276-262 spread in the electoral vote. It could be higher. I think the polls are really skewed this election against the democratic candidate, but by how much is impossible to tell until the only poll that matters. I think it is likely Dems take the house and unlikely the have a majority in the senate. ---
**Author:** ![Kolak\_of\_Twilo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/kolak_of_twilo/32/73_2.png) [@Kolak\_of\_Twilo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Kolak_of_Twilo)\ **Post date:** [October 18, 2024, 4:50am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2024-us-general-election-prediction-thread/1007585/32 "2024-10-18T04:50:47Z")
I will change my earlier post to say the following: If this election is as close as polls make it appear it will end up either as: - 277 EV - 261 EV Trump wins - 276 EV - 262 EV Harris wins What happens in Michigan tips the balance in this scenario. I’m 75% confident it will be one or the other. **IF** the polls are way way off, I see it possible to be a 292 EV - 246 EV Harris win. This is the best result I see for the VP and it relies on both Michigan and North Carolina landing in the Democrat’s column. The impact of Mark Robinson on the NC Gov race could push things toward Harris. ETA: Trump win and we get a 51-49 Senate with the Democrats taking the House. Harris wins and there is a good chance of a 50-50 Senate with the Democrats again taking the House. I’ve read the entire thread and still see several normally rational Dopers predicting things like TX or FL going blue and I just can’t stop myself from thinking they really must be joking. I’d love it but it ain’t gonna happen. ---
**Author:** ![Loach](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/loach/32/350_2.png) [@Loach](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Loach)\ **Post date:** [October 18, 2024, 5:11am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2024-us-general-election-prediction-thread/1007585/33 "2024-10-18T05:11:50Z")
Let’s just say I hope my prediction is wrong. ---
**Author:** ![Cervaise](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/cervaise/32/16693_2.png) [@Cervaise](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Cervaise)\ **Post date:** [October 18, 2024, 5:18am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2024-us-general-election-prediction-thread/1007585/34 "2024-10-18T05:18:57Z")
> [@iiandyiiii](#): > > Bump. How does everyone feel about their predictions? > [@Cervaise](#): > > I remain sadly convinced that while Harris will win the popular vote by a couple of percentage points, GOP ratfuckery will allow Trump to steal the White House, legitimately or otherwise. Same, word for word, with additional (sad) confidence. Harris is doing almost everything right but the needle is stubbornly stuck. Too much of the country is permanently fucked in the head. ---
**Author:** ![Win\_Place\_Show](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/win_place_show/32/13469_2.png) [@Win\_Place\_Show](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Win_Place_Show)\ **Post date:** [October 18, 2024, 12:33pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2024-us-general-election-prediction-thread/1007585/35 "2024-10-18T12:33:38Z")
> [@Cervaise](#): > > Same, word for word, with additional (sad) confidence. Harris is doing almost everything right but the needle is stubbornly stuck. Too much of the country is permanently fucked in the head I’m gonna piggyback right off of this, because this is me, word-for-word. I’m even a little more disheartened seeing that over on Predictit we’re starting the morning at “Will She Be Elected” at 55% No, 45% Yes. And that’s being driven by “real money”, not mysterious polls of “who’s answering their cellphones”, etc. It’s also obviously “real time” so him glitching out for 35 minutes the other night, and her emasculating Bret Baier on live TV then killing it at her rally yesterday, are all baked in - there’s no “let’s wait a couple of days to see how the polls are affected”. I suppose you could make the case that most degenerate gamblers are young MAGA douchebros that are driving that spread (as a middle-aged degenerate gambler I’d push back just a bit on the generalization though). [https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7419/Will-Kamala-Harris-be-the-47th-US-president](https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7419/Will-Kamala-Harris-be-the-47th-US-president) ---
**Author:** ![DigitalC](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/ebca7d/32.png) [@DigitalC](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DigitalC)\ **Post date:** [October 18, 2024, 2:37pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2024-us-general-election-prediction-thread/1007585/36 "2024-10-18T14:37:01Z")
> [@DigitalC](#): > > A squeaker like last time. Harris wins, loses Georgia but picks up North Carolina. Dems keep the house, lose the senate with some extremely close races. Changing this to be significantly more positive for Harris. Now I think she gets at least six of the seven swing states. ---
**Author:** ![suranyi](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/e36b37/32.png) [@suranyi](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/suranyi)\ **Post date:** [October 18, 2024, 4:35pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2024-us-general-election-prediction-thread/1007585/37 "2024-10-18T16:35:43Z")
A few points: 1, I’m heartened by the fact that the betting markets do NOT always get things right. Just recently they had major errors in predicting Harris’s running mate. 1. Betting markets tend to lean conservative, because betters are typically young white men who like to take risks, and those people tend to lean conservative. 2. The counter to that is what they always say: “Betters want to make money, so they’ll bet on the liberal even if they are personally conservative, if they really think the liberal will win.” But there’s a catch: A lot of people are personally invested in the outcome of an election, so they may be willing to put up money to change the perception of the election. Even if they would lose that money in the end. Consider it like a campaign donation: The donor doesn’t expect his money back, but does expect a greater chance for his candidate to win. For example, there’s some evidence that a few billionaires (Elon Musk possibly among them) are putting large amounts of money into Polymarket. Not because they’re sure Trump will win, but because they want to make people think Trump will win. ---
**Author:** ![JKellyMap](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/jkellymap/32/15880_2.png) [@JKellyMap](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/JKellyMap)\ **Post date:** [October 18, 2024, 9:08pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2024-us-general-election-prediction-thread/1007585/38 "2024-10-18T21:08:35Z")
> [@Happy\_Fun\_Ball](#): > > I feel pretty confident Harris will win with at least a 276-262 spread in the electoral vote. It could be higher…… > > I think it is likely Dems take the house and unlikely the have a majority in the senate. Good username/post combo! I’m sticking with my “prediction” (close Harris win, but I’m pretty far from “confident”; Senate and House both with slim GOP majorities) ---
**Author:** ![Paul\_was\_in\_Saudi](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/p/b77776/32.png) [@Paul\_was\_in\_Saudi](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Paul_was_in_Saudi)\ **Post date:** [October 18, 2024, 9:30pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2024-us-general-election-prediction-thread/1007585/39 "2024-10-18T21:30:14Z")
Now remember I live in Bucks County, the swing county in the most swinging state. I have to go by what I see, acres of Trump signs, and what I hear, lots of people who are unwilling to say Haitians don’t eat cats and dogs. Trump is carrying the critical school bus driver voting bloc. I see lots of support for Trump. It is very upsetting. I predict Pennsylvania will not be called until Wednesday night. I predict Trump will carry the state. I predict it will be messy but Trump will win. I would be very happy to be proven wrong. ---
**Author:** ![pkbites](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/pkbites/32/204_2.png) [@pkbites](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/pkbites)\ **Post date:** [October 19, 2024, 12:01am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2024-us-general-election-prediction-thread/1007585/40 "2024-10-19T00:01:14Z")
> [@Velocity](#): > > . Ted Cruz very narrowly loses in Texas. Don’t know where you get this from. Eric Hovde will lose in Wisconsin. He’s said too many stupid things to overcome. My wishy washy answer on the POTUS election is: 30% chance Trump wins 30% chance Harris wins 30% chance there is a tie in the Electoral College (3 strong scenarios of this happening). Notice that 2 out of those 3 favor Trump. 10% chance something odd happens, like one of them wins/loses a state that wasn’t expected, faithless electors, Kennedy manages to win 2 EC votes from Maine & Nebraska and features in a contingent election (wouldn’t that be krazy!?!). In any case I took election night off of work, got me a bottle of Bookers and will toast to chaos! It’s going to be a wild fucking ride! [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2024-us-general-election-prediction-thread/1007585.md?page=1) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2024-us-general-election-prediction-thread/1007585.md?page=3)