# 2024 US general election prediction thread **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Created:** [September 22, 2024, 2:52pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2024-us-general-election-prediction-thread/1007585 "2024-09-22T14:52:20Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 4
**Author:** ![PastTense](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/pasttense/32/14550_2.png) [@PastTense](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/PastTense)\ **Post date:** [October 24, 2024, 5:59pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2024-us-general-election-prediction-thread/1007585/61 "2024-10-24T17:59:56Z")
The conventional wisdom seemed to be after the last two elections that the Democratic candidate had to have about 3% greater popular vote to win the electoral college [because of all the small rural states who vote Republican–and the small states have more electoral voting impact than their population because each has two Senators]. But the polls overall indicate less than 1% greater vote support for Harris. So explain why this isn’t disastrous for Harris. ---
**Author:** ![DigitalC](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/ebca7d/32.png) [@DigitalC](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DigitalC)\ **Post date:** [October 24, 2024, 6:02pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2024-us-general-election-prediction-thread/1007585/62 "2024-10-24T18:02:03Z")
> [@PastTense](#): > > So explain why this isn’t disastrous for Harris. Because the rest of your paragraph is no longer true, electorates change. ---
**Author:** ![PastTense](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/pasttense/32/14550_2.png) [@PastTense](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/PastTense)\ **Post date:** [October 24, 2024, 6:04pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2024-us-general-election-prediction-thread/1007585/63 "2024-10-24T18:04:09Z")
What, specifically? Did several small states switch to Democratic…? ---
**Author:** ![DigitalC](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/ebca7d/32.png) [@DigitalC](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DigitalC)\ **Post date:** [October 24, 2024, 6:06pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2024-us-general-election-prediction-thread/1007585/64 "2024-10-24T18:06:20Z")
> [@PastTense](#): > > What, specifically? The part where Democrats need at least a 3% win the popular vote to win the electoral college. Republicans have been making a lot of gains in places like New York and California where their votes don’t really matter, or moving to solid Republican states like Florida (I am very positive on Kamala winning but Florida is a red state now). ---
**Author:** ![DSeid](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dseid/32/20194_2.png) [@DSeid](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DSeid)\ **Post date:** [October 24, 2024, 7:14pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2024-us-general-election-prediction-thread/1007585/65 "2024-10-24T19:14:18Z")
> [@PastTense](#): > > So explain why this isn’t disastrous for Harris. As @DigitalC says, the GOP EC advantage may be less this time. But more so because the accuracy of polling aggregation is plus minus more than 3. The election will be decided by which way the polls miss. If they again underestimate Trump support then he was going to win based on polling two weeks ago and now. If it is the other way she will win, same now as two weeks ago. These poll number shifts are swamped by that, even they move the forecast models from 53 one way to 53 the other or whatever the number of the minute is. ---
**Author:** ![Velocity](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/velocity/32/18006_2.png) [@Velocity](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Velocity)\ **Post date:** [October 24, 2024, 7:29pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2024-us-general-election-prediction-thread/1007585/66 "2024-10-24T19:29:45Z")
The good news for pollsters is that if they get it wrong yet again this time, they won’t have to worry about making a Trump polling mistake again four years from now. ---
**Author:** ![Saint\_Cad](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/saint_cad/32/18907_2.png) [@Saint\_Cad](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Saint_Cad)\ **Post date:** [October 24, 2024, 7:34pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2024-us-general-election-prediction-thread/1007585/67 "2024-10-24T19:34:56Z")
> [@TheJobsGuy](#): > > Harris tops 300 EC votes, claiming 5 of the 7 swings, and landing Ohio, Florida, or Texas in a major upset. I concur on the 300+ Harris EVs. Ohio goes to Harris, Florida and Texas to Trump. Georgia goes to Harris and it is not as close as people think as Georgians remember Trump tried to steal their election and people who would not vote decide to say, “Fuck that guy.” and vote not-Trump on principle. ---
**Author:** ![Win\_Place\_Show](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/win_place_show/32/13469_2.png) [@Win\_Place\_Show](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Win_Place_Show)\ **Post date:** [October 24, 2024, 7:45pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2024-us-general-election-prediction-thread/1007585/68 "2024-10-24T19:45:23Z")
> [@Velocity](#): > > The good news for pollsters is that if they get it wrong yet again this time, they won’t have to worry about making a Trump polling mistake again four years from now. Yep, probably won’t be too many “aw don’t worry, this ones in the bag” predictions four years from now if this keeps going the way it looks like it’s going, huh? ---
**Author:** ![DSeid](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dseid/32/20194_2.png) [@DSeid](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DSeid)\ **Post date:** [October 24, 2024, 7:50pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2024-us-general-election-prediction-thread/1007585/69 "2024-10-24T19:50:38Z")
> [@Velocity](#): > > if they get it wrong yet again this time What do you call “wrong” in this context? Being exactly right they won’t be. They will _likely_ be “wrong” to a couple of points one way or the other. If in Harris’s favor she wins and the pollsters might have to worry about being wrong with an even more senile Trump in four years. ---
**Author:** ![DigitalC](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/ebca7d/32.png) [@DigitalC](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DigitalC)\ **Post date:** [October 24, 2024, 9:02pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2024-us-general-election-prediction-thread/1007585/70 "2024-10-24T21:02:44Z")
Yeah, if polls show Kamala up 49-47 on election day given a 3 point margin of error anything between Kamala 52 Trump 44 or Trump 50 Kamala 46 is technically “correct”. ---
**Author:** ![Hari\_Seldon](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/hari_seldon/32/5173_2.png) [@Hari\_Seldon](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Hari_Seldon)\ **Post date:** [October 25, 2024, 12:57am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2024-us-general-election-prediction-thread/1007585/71 "2024-10-25T00:57:17Z")
Polling aggregator Votemaster has Harris with 260 EVs, Trump with 268 and the ten from WI in a dead heat. If all their predictions are correct, WI will decide. They have Harris up by 2% in PA, incidentally. Of course, many of these results are razor thin, well within standard statistical error, never mind reluctant pollees. ---
**Author:** ![DSeid](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dseid/32/20194_2.png) [@DSeid](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DSeid)\ **Post date:** [October 25, 2024, 1:36am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2024-us-general-election-prediction-thread/1007585/72 "2024-10-25T01:36:01Z")
Yes, and what is YOUR prediction? ---
**Author:** ![DSeid](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dseid/32/20194_2.png) [@DSeid](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DSeid)\ **Post date:** [October 25, 2024, 1:52am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2024-us-general-election-prediction-thread/1007585/73 "2024-10-25T01:52:24Z")
> [@PastTense](#): > > So explain why this isn’t disastrous for Harris. FWIW I am not the only one yammering about how the standard polling error swamps the alleged closeness of the race. Enten on CNN by way of The Hill > **[CNN polling guru says battleground state sweep ‘more likely than not’](https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/4951283-harry-enten-polls-battleground-states/amp/)** > > CNN polling guru Harry Enten said he believes a sweep of the main battleground states in the presidential election is “more likely than not,” even as polls show all seven of the big swing states al… > [@](#): > > Enten said the average polling error since 1972 in the key swing states has been 3.4 percentage points, and if the polls are off by that much this year, one candidate could sweep all seven. > > He noted that past elections have shown one candidate outperforming expectations in most states, suggesting the states are likely to widely vote more Democratic or Republican across the board. > > He said 92 percent of states’ polling averages underestimated then-President Obama in 2012, 83 percent underestimated Trump in 2016 and 100 percent underestimated Trump in 2020. ---
**Author:** ![Loach](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/loach/32/350_2.png) [@Loach](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Loach)\ **Post date:** [October 25, 2024, 2:29am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2024-us-general-election-prediction-thread/1007585/74 "2024-10-25T02:29:54Z")
> [@DigitalC](#): > > > [@PastTense](#): > > > > What, specifically? > > (I am very positive on Kamala winning but Florida is a red state now). What makes you think that? It should go very solidly red. ---
**Author:** ![DSeid](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dseid/32/20194_2.png) [@DSeid](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DSeid)\ **Post date:** [October 25, 2024, 3:19am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2024-us-general-election-prediction-thread/1007585/75 "2024-10-25T03:19:38Z")
> [@Loach](#): > > It should go very solidly red. That’s the point being made? More solidly. California with a bit less Blue votes run up. More Red run up in Florida. Neither with any EC impact. Result is less of a GOP EC advantage. ---
**Author:** ![Cervaise](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/cervaise/32/16693_2.png) [@Cervaise](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Cervaise)\ **Post date:** [October 25, 2024, 5:47am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2024-us-general-election-prediction-thread/1007585/76 "2024-10-25T05:47:01Z")
> [@Cervaise](#): > > > [@Cervaise](#): > > > > GOP ratfuckery will allow Trump to steal the White House, legitimately or otherwise. > > Same One week later, I’d love, love, _love_ to be wrong, but I’m standing pat with this for the record. ---
**Author:** ![Loach](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/loach/32/350_2.png) [@Loach](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Loach)\ **Post date:** [October 25, 2024, 1:28pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2024-us-general-election-prediction-thread/1007585/77 "2024-10-25T13:28:44Z")
> [@DSeid](#): > > > [@Loach](#): > > > > It should go very solidly red. > > That’s the point being made? More solidly. > > California with a bit less Blue votes run up. More Red run up in Florida. Neither with any EC impact. Result is less of a GOP EC advantage. Yes misread that. I thought that was a prediction that Harris would take Florida. Several other posters have suggested that and it baffles me. ---
**Author:** ![DSeid](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dseid/32/20194_2.png) [@DSeid](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DSeid)\ **Post date:** [October 25, 2024, 1:56pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2024-us-general-election-prediction-thread/1007585/78 "2024-10-25T13:56:07Z")
Oh I’m on the list that thinks FL _could_ be surprisingly close. I think the abortion referendum will bring out voters who will vote Harris while they are there. But the explanation behind the hints of a decreasing GOP advantage is that: the advantage had been a large vote margin for D candidates in California in particular, and less huge margins in places like FL. GOP doing better in both those places doesn’t change the EC but does the popular vote. ---
**Author:** ![Jas09](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/j/d07c76/32.png) [@Jas09](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Jas09)\ **Post date:** [October 25, 2024, 2:07pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2024-us-general-election-prediction-thread/1007585/79 "2024-10-25T14:07:24Z")
Since my 269-269 tie prediction due to GOP shenanigans in Nebraska already failed (fortunately), I’ll make another one I hope is wrong: Trump flips AZ, GA, and NV to get to 252. Harris stuck at 226 on election night with NC, PA, MI, and WI too close to call. Harris barely holds MI, but the others go to Trump for a final count of 291-247. Harris wins the popular vote by ~1.5%. ---
**Author:** ![Atamasama](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/atamasama/32/12961_2.png) [@Atamasama](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Atamasama)\ **Post date:** [October 25, 2024, 3:02pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2024-us-general-election-prediction-thread/1007585/80 "2024-10-25T15:02:37Z")
I don’t think I ever gave my prediction here, and I’m basing this on my “gut” as a couple others have. I believe Harris will win. I think it will be close but not as close as people are saying it is. As in, it’s not a blowout but not quite a squeaker. I think the waning enthusiasm for Trump and _from_ Trump will lead to a lower turnout of his voters. A couple of the battleground states will be close enough that you’ll see lawsuits (that are tossed out for lack of evidence) and a lot of the usual griping about the election being fraudulent, backed up by rumors, lies, and misleading “proof”. But the actual result will be definitive enough that there won’t be any doubt among people who can reason. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2024-us-general-election-prediction-thread/1007585.md?page=3) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2024-us-general-election-prediction-thread/1007585.md?page=5)