# 2024 US general election prediction thread **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Created:** [September 22, 2024, 2:52pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2024-us-general-election-prediction-thread/1007585 "2024-09-22T14:52:20Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 8\ **Page:** 8
**Author:** ![HEMAblerd313](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/h/e36b37/32.png) [@HEMAblerd313](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/HEMAblerd313)\ **Post date:** [November 5, 2024, 6:21pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2024-us-general-election-prediction-thread/1007585/141 "2024-11-05T18:21:05Z")
I pray the same. ---
**Author:** ![Aspenglow](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/aspenglow/32/76_2.png) [@Aspenglow](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Aspenglow)\ **Post date:** [November 5, 2024, 6:23pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2024-us-general-election-prediction-thread/1007585/142 "2024-11-05T18:23:15Z")
> [@RickJay](#): > > Remember all the tariffs Trump raised? Biden didn’t lower any of them. Do you understand why? It’s because he can only lower tariffs on our side. He can’t control what China will (or more likely won’t) do. So if we lower tariffs to China, but they don’t do the same, we’ve only shot ourselves in the foot. ---
**Author:** ![RickJay](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/bb73d2/32.png) [@RickJay](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RickJay)\ **Post date:** [November 5, 2024, 9:38pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2024-us-general-election-prediction-thread/1007585/143 "2024-11-05T21:38:58Z")
> [@Aspenglow](#): > > It’s because he can only lower tariffs on our side. He can’t control what China will (or more likely won’t) do. So if we lower tariffs to China, but they don’t do the same, we’ve only shot ourselves in the foot. Not sure what that has to do with tariffs on Canada, a country that would be happy to mutually lower a Trump tariff. ---
**Author:** ![Aspenglow](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/aspenglow/32/76_2.png) [@Aspenglow](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Aspenglow)\ **Post date:** [November 5, 2024, 9:40pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2024-us-general-election-prediction-thread/1007585/144 "2024-11-05T21:40:51Z")
I’d agree with that. But there may be reasons why it hasn’t been done. I’d have to dig into it more to have an informed opinion on tariffs between the USA and Canada. I’ll bet there’s more to it, though, than just, “Don’ wanna.” ---
**Author:** ![Dr.Strangelove](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dr.strangelove/32/6613_2.png) [@Dr.Strangelove](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Dr.Strangelove)\ **Post date:** [November 7, 2024, 1:16am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2024-us-general-election-prediction-thread/1007585/145 "2024-11-07T01:16:12Z")
> [@iiandyiiii](#): > > Ann Selzer of Iowa, widely lauded as perhaps the very best state pollster in the entire country, just released her final Iowa poll and had Harris up by three. As it happened, Harris was _down_ by 13% in Iowa. There were many polling misses in this election, but that one was remarkable. ---
**Author:** ![RickJay](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/bb73d2/32.png) [@RickJay](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RickJay)\ **Post date:** [November 7, 2024, 2:54am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2024-us-general-election-prediction-thread/1007585/146 "2024-11-07T02:54:24Z")
I’ve yet to see an explanation as to how Selzer got it so wrong. Even by polling standards that is an astonishingly terrible job. I didn’t believe it but I’m amazed HOW wrong it was, I figure she was off but not by anywhere near sixteen points. It might have been the worst professionally done poll of the election. As someone else online said, if Selzer has literally just mixed up R and D when they released the result, it would STILL be a terrible job. ---
**Author:** ![Dr.Strangelove](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dr.strangelove/32/6613_2.png) [@Dr.Strangelove](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Dr.Strangelove)\ **Post date:** [November 7, 2024, 6:08am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2024-us-general-election-prediction-thread/1007585/147 "2024-11-07T06:08:55Z")
It can’t be a total explanation, but I found this interesting. Polymarket is a prediction betting site. Accused (with little evidence) of being manipulated by the super rich (for what reason, I don’t know). Anyway, some French guy made a $30M bet on Trump and walked away with about $50M. He funded his own polls, with a twist: [![Imgur](https://i.imgur.com/dYFsvtX.jpeg "imgur.com") ](https://imgur.com/dYFsvtX) [![Imgur](https://i.imgur.com/94tAdKT.jpeg "imgur.com") ](https://imgur.com/94tAdKT) Maybe not perfect, but better than what we got. ---
**Author:** ![RickJay](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/bb73d2/32.png) [@RickJay](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RickJay)\ **Post date:** [November 7, 2024, 6:36pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2024-us-general-election-prediction-thread/1007585/148 "2024-11-07T18:36:29Z")
Given the lack of access to these alleged polls it’s impossible to say if they worked or the guy is full of shit or what. I mean, it’s an interesting idea, but you’d have to run polls like this many times, comparing them against the best available normal polls, yadda yadd yadda. Taken collectively the polls did just fine. Selzer’s poll was comically wrong but it’s ONE poll, and a small poll of limited applicability at that, out of thousands and anyone who believes one poll is a nut case. It’s about all of them. This result is within a pretty narrow band of the likeliest outcomes. If Trump had won the national popular vote by eight points, like Obama did in 2008, well, you’d have to say they fucked up pretty badly. But Silver has Harris ahead by one point, just barely enough to make the election a coin flip, and that will be off by maybe two points. The EV result was entirely unsurprising. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2024-us-general-election-prediction-thread/1007585.md?page=7)