# 2024 US Senate Elections **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Created:** [November 18, 2022, 3:41pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2024-us-senate-elections/975149 "2022-11-18T15:41:02Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 20
**Author:** ![flurb](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/f/51bf81/32.png) [@flurb](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/flurb)\ **Post date:** [October 11, 2024, 5:07pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2024-us-senate-elections/975149/381 "2024-10-11T17:07:10Z")
FiveThirtyEight’s list of polls for the Nevada Senate race is available [here](https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/senate/2024/nevada/). Almost every recent poll has shown Rosen with a comfortable lead. ---
**Author:** ![Elendil\_s\_Heir](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/7cd45c/32.png) [@Elendil\_s\_Heir](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Elendil_s_Heir)\ **Post date:** [October 12, 2024, 2:49am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2024-us-senate-elections/975149/382 "2024-10-12T02:49:21Z")
It wouldn’t be ideal, but I could live with a President Harris and a very narrow Republican Senate majority that the Democratic minority (filibustering when necessary), and her veto, kept from doing anything spectacularly stupid. ---
**Author:** ![hajario](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/hajario/32/171_2.png) [@hajario](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/hajario)\ **Post date:** [October 12, 2024, 2:53am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2024-us-senate-elections/975149/383 "2024-10-12T02:53:21Z")
Good luck appointing any judges though ---
**Author:** ![flurb](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/f/51bf81/32.png) [@flurb](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/flurb)\ **Post date:** [October 12, 2024, 3:14am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2024-us-senate-elections/975149/384 "2024-10-12T03:14:49Z")
If the filibuster stands in the way of Republicans doing what they want to do next session, it will be discarded. But as @hajario says, the threat of a narrow Republican majority in the Senate isn’t what they’ll do, it’s what they won’t or might not be able to do – confirming executive and judicial branch nominations, passing the federal budget, raising the debt ceiling. Most of the time it frankly doesn’t much matter if Congress is a dysfunctional mess, but there are certain things we need them to be able to get their shit together and act on or we all suffer the consequences. ---
**Author:** ![Kolak\_of\_Twilo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/kolak_of_twilo/32/73_2.png) [@Kolak\_of\_Twilo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Kolak_of_Twilo)\ **Post date:** [October 12, 2024, 3:18am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2024-us-senate-elections/975149/385 "2024-10-12T03:18:27Z")
Cornyn is the likely successor to McConnell. I have the impression he is more in the mold of McConnell and not so much a bomb thrower. I could of course be wildly incorrect. ---
**Author:** ![flurb](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/f/51bf81/32.png) [@flurb](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/flurb)\ **Post date:** [October 12, 2024, 3:30am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2024-us-senate-elections/975149/386 "2024-10-12T03:30:54Z")
I agree that Cornyn (and Thune) are not radical conservative bomb throwers, but with a narrow Republican majority in the Senate they could end up in the same place that Kevin McCarthy and Mike Johnson have been this session – repeatedly held hostage by the most radical members of their caucus. There are some important differences in how power works in the House versus the Senate – there’s no motion to vacate in the Senate – but the new Majority Leader could find himself stymied on anything he tries to do by a few conservative Senators who withhold their votes unless their demands are met. McConnell was mostly able to navigate this through the credibility he’d built up over decades, but even he was reaching the limits of being able to lead the Republican Caucus which contributed to him stepping down. ---
**Author:** ![Kolak\_of\_Twilo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/kolak_of_twilo/32/73_2.png) [@Kolak\_of\_Twilo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Kolak_of_Twilo)\ **Post date:** [October 12, 2024, 3:34am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2024-us-senate-elections/975149/387 "2024-10-12T03:34:34Z")
I would also add, if it ends up being a 51 R - 49 D split, Murkowski could break ranks with the GOP on cabinet appointments so Walz can cast the tie breaking vote. Maybe even on judicial appointments. She has seemed fed up with MAGA for a while now. ---
**Author:** ![flurb](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/f/51bf81/32.png) [@flurb](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/flurb)\ **Post date:** [October 12, 2024, 3:42am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2024-us-senate-elections/975149/388 "2024-10-12T03:42:23Z")
Murkowki would never get the chance to break ranks, because the Senate Majority Leader decides if and when any nomination actually gets to the floor. That’s why Merrick Garland’s not sitting on the Supreme Court, even though his nomination may well have passed if brought to a vote. ---
**Author:** ![Kolak\_of\_Twilo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/kolak_of_twilo/32/73_2.png) [@Kolak\_of\_Twilo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Kolak_of_Twilo)\ **Post date:** [October 12, 2024, 3:51am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2024-us-senate-elections/975149/389 "2024-10-12T03:51:11Z")
She could leave the party and become an independent. That would possibly keep Schumer as Majority Leader if she chose to caucus with the Democrats. She is 67 years old and won’t have to run again until 2026. She already voted to impeach DJT once so no guarantee she would win. > Ms Murkowski was interviewed by [CNN’s Manu Raju](https://www.cnn.com/videos/politics/2024/03/24/lisa-murkowski-republican-party-ipwknd-raju-sot-vpx.cnn) on Capitol Hill and said that she wouldn’t be endorsing Mr Trump for president — as most other Republicans on Capitol Hill have already done — in 2024. She further added that she was “independently minded”, and was asked whether that meant she was considering dropping her party affiliation. > “I am navigating my way through some very interesting political times. Let’s just leave it at that,” she responded. [The above is from this article earlier this year.](https://www.the-independent.com/news/world/americas/us-politics/lisa-murkowski-donald-trump-gop-b2518369.html) No guarantee of anything but still an interesting thing to keep in mind. ---
**Author:** ![flurb](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/f/51bf81/32.png) [@flurb](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/flurb)\ **Post date:** [October 12, 2024, 4:08am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2024-us-senate-elections/975149/390 "2024-10-12T04:08:52Z")
Sure. Then it’s not a Republican majority Senate, which was the hypothetical. ---
**Author:** ![DrDeth](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/b487fb/32.png) [@DrDeth](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DrDeth)\ **Post date:** [October 12, 2024, 6:37am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2024-us-senate-elections/975149/391 "2024-10-12T06:37:16Z")
> [@flurb](#): > > If the filibuster stands in the way of Republicans doing what they want to do next session, it will be discarded. They need a majority to do that. If it is 51-49, there will be at least one or two GOP nays on that. > [@flurb](#): > > That’s why Merrick Garland’s not sitting on the Supreme Court, even though his nomination may well have passed if brought to a vote. He never would have been confirmed. ---
**Author:** ![flurb](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/f/51bf81/32.png) [@flurb](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/flurb)\ **Post date:** [October 12, 2024, 1:50pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2024-us-senate-elections/975149/392 "2024-10-12T13:50:16Z")
> [@DrDeth](#): > > > [@flurb](#): > > > > If the filibuster stands in the way of Republicans doing what they want to do next session, it will be discarded. > > They need a majority to do that. If it is 51-49, there will be at least one or two GOP nays on that. Maybe, but the GOP Sanity Caucus in the Senate is getting mighty thin. Romney will be gone. I fully expect Susan Collins would do her Hamlet schtick and wring her hands about how ugly politics has gotten, then with a heart full of regret fall into line. At 51-49 they could afford to have one conflicted Republican sit out the vote, since the actual vote would be on a motion to overturn the ruling of the chair to “nuke” the filibuster, which would fail 49-50. ---
**Author:** ![Red\_Wiggler](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/red_wiggler/32/13190_2.png) [@Red\_Wiggler](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Red_Wiggler)\ **Post date:** [October 12, 2024, 3:49pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2024-us-senate-elections/975149/393 "2024-10-12T15:49:14Z")
Collins will be almost 74 on election day 2026. It would be very helpful if Maine voters decided to choose a younger candidate in her stead but, alas, voters all too often are content to keep voting for the elders. ---
**Author:** ![Aspenglow](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/aspenglow/32/76_2.png) [@Aspenglow](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Aspenglow)\ **Post date:** [October 12, 2024, 6:33pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2024-us-senate-elections/975149/394 "2024-10-12T18:33:12Z")
> [@DrDeth](#): > > He never would have been confirmed. That’s not true. Garland had considerable support from both parties for confirmation. That’s why McConnell wouldn’t bring his confirmation to the floor for an up or down vote. > **[What Happened With Merrick Garland In 2016 And Why It Matters Now](https://www.npr.org/2018/06/29/624467256/what-happened-with-merrick-garland-in-2016-and-why-it-matters-now)** > > Back then, Mitch McConnell boasted: "One of my proudest moments was when I looked Barack Obama in the eye and I said, 'Mr. President, you will not fill the Supreme Court vacancy.' " From the article: > First, it prevented the seating of a Democratic president’s choice. Had he been considered, Garland might have pulled a few majority-party members across the aisle. Supreme Court nominees nearly always win at least some votes from the party opposing the president, and Garland had a strong law-and-order history. Had he performed well on TV, voting against him might have been harder — especially for Republicans seeking re-election in competitive states. ---
**Author:** ![DrDeth](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/b487fb/32.png) [@DrDeth](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DrDeth)\ **Post date:** [October 12, 2024, 8:08pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2024-us-senate-elections/975149/395 "2024-10-12T20:08:59Z")
> [@flurb](#): > > Maybe, but the GOP Sanity Caucus in the Senate is getting mighty thin Actually, I would be counting on a couple of the less sane members who treasure the Filibuster like it was handed down by Moses. ---
**Author:** ![flurb](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/f/51bf81/32.png) [@flurb](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/flurb)\ **Post date:** [October 16, 2024, 3:56am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2024-us-senate-elections/975149/396 "2024-10-16T03:56:33Z")
Ted Cruz and Colin Allred had their one and only debate tonight. Now this is the kind of debate I can get behind – they just ripped into each other nonstop for an hour. Ted Cruz said Allred would mandate drag shows on miliary bases. Allred trolled Cruz for his flight to Cancun during winter storm Uri. I don’t think it’ll move the needle but as a political junkie, I loved it. > **[Colin Allred, Ted Cruz blast each other as “extreme,” throw jabs on border...](https://www.texastribune.org/2024/10/15/texas-senate-debate-ted-cruz-colin-allred/)** > > The debate proved combative from start to finish, with Cruz and Allred trading barbs on nearly every issue that came up. ---
**Author:** ![Win\_Place\_Show](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/win_place_show/32/13469_2.png) [@Win\_Place\_Show](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Win_Place_Show)\ **Post date:** [October 16, 2024, 4:22am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2024-us-senate-elections/975149/397 "2024-10-16T04:22:07Z")
> [@flurb](#): > > I don’t think it’ll move the needle but as a political junkie, I loved it. Thanks. I didn’t get a chance to watch it myself, and didn’t figure it was worth starting its own thread to discuss so I was hoping one of our 6 - 10 Texans around here would mention it. Doesn’t sound like we got our “they’re EATING THE DOGS” batshit crazy moment from Cruz that could be a soundbite for the next three weeks, so I suppose we’re gonna be no better in the polls next week than we were last week. Probably gonna be a bit of suspense and optimism early on Election Night (like when a #15 seed hangs with a #2 seed for the first five minutes of their opening round NCAA game) but unfortunately Cancun Cruz will probably pull away in the end. ---
**Author:** ![DrDeth](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/b487fb/32.png) [@DrDeth](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DrDeth)\ **Post date:** [October 16, 2024, 5:25am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2024-us-senate-elections/975149/398 "2024-10-16T05:25:51Z")
> [@Win\_Place\_Show](#): > > Doesn’t sound like we got our “they’re EATING THE DOGS” batshit crazy moment from Cruz that could be a soundbite for the next three weeks, so I suppose we’re gonna be no better in the polls next week than we were last week. _mandate drag shows on military bases_ doesnt cut it for you as crazy enuf? ---
**Author:** ![dtilque](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/d6d6ee/32.png) [@dtilque](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/dtilque)\ **Post date:** [October 16, 2024, 9:31am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2024-us-senate-elections/975149/399 "2024-10-16T09:31:20Z")
> **[Holy Moly: Nebraska Senate!](https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2024/10/15/2276971/-Holy-Moly-Nebraska-Senate?pm_campaign=front_page&pm_source=trending&pm_medium=web)** > > A new poll has Osborn up 6 over Deb Fischer: This is huge. Yes Osborn is an Independent but he is decidedly more progressive than Manchin. If he caucused with Dems in a 50-50 Senate he would be the most powerful person in the Senate. Let’s go!!! Internal poll by SurveyUSA. There’s not much more in the article except an image of an Xitter post: > ---
**Author:** ![DSeid](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dseid/32/20194_2.png) [@DSeid](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DSeid)\ **Post date:** [October 16, 2024, 7:25pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2024-us-senate-elections/975149/400 "2024-10-16T19:25:13Z")
> [@dtilque](#): > > Internal poll … Oh. Nevermind then. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2024-us-senate-elections/975149.md?page=19) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2024-us-senate-elections/975149.md?page=21)