# 2024 US Senate Elections **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Created:** [November 18, 2022, 3:41pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2024-us-senate-elections/975149 "2022-11-18T15:41:02Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 7
**Author:** ![Elendil\_s\_Heir](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/7cd45c/32.png) [@Elendil\_s\_Heir](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Elendil_s_Heir)\ **Post date:** [November 9, 2023, 8:04pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2024-us-senate-elections/975149/121 "2023-11-09T20:04:55Z")
Ugh, bad news for Dems. ---
**Author:** ![JohnT](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/johnt/32/15048_2.png) [@JohnT](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/JohnT)\ **Post date:** [November 9, 2023, 8:07pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2024-us-senate-elections/975149/122 "2023-11-09T20:07:33Z")
Eh, no one expected him to keep the seat. And if he runs 3rd party for President he could drain off more Trump votes than Biden, as he would cast himself as the ‘sane’ conservative alternative. ---
**Author:** ![flurb](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/f/51bf81/32.png) [@flurb](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/flurb)\ **Post date:** [November 9, 2023, 8:35pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2024-us-senate-elections/975149/123 "2023-11-09T20:35:44Z")
Probably for the best, at least now the DSCC won’t feel like they have to dump resources into WV to support an incumbent. ---
**Author:** ![Tride](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/tride/32/13907_2.png) [@Tride](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Tride)\ **Post date:** [November 9, 2023, 8:38pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2024-us-senate-elections/975149/124 "2023-11-09T20:38:39Z")
I hope you’re right about Tester. I’m getting daily emails asking for money (checks watch) a full year ahead of the election. His anointed opponent is very wealthy and photogenic, but has some very unpopular opinions, notably that Federal public lands in the state should be conveyed to the state. ---
**Author:** ![Kolak\_of\_Twilo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/kolak_of_twilo/32/73_2.png) [@Kolak\_of\_Twilo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Kolak_of_Twilo)\ **Post date:** [November 9, 2023, 8:44pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2024-us-senate-elections/975149/125 "2023-11-09T20:44:26Z")
> [@Lance\_Turbo](#): > > Already baked in the cake. Pretty much no one thought that that seat could be held. > > Looks like that includes Joe Manchin. Agreed. I’m really not understanding the pundits and others expressing dismay or surprise. There was almost no chance Manchin would have been able to hold the seat. Pretty sure that is a big part of his calculation to not run. I realize it will be difficult for the Democrats to hold the Senate but I highly doubt the leadership expected to keep this seat. ---
**Author:** ![flurb](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/f/51bf81/32.png) [@flurb](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/flurb)\ **Post date:** [November 9, 2023, 8:56pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2024-us-senate-elections/975149/126 "2023-11-09T20:56:25Z")
With no good opportunities for pickups, this means that Senate Democrats need to run the table in defending their seats (and hold the White House). Not undoable — last year’s election was the first since the 17th Amendment provided for popular election of Senators that every incumbent running for reelection won (although the open PA seat went from R to D). ---
**Author:** ![FlikTheBlue](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/fliktheblue/32/10972_2.png) [@FlikTheBlue](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/FlikTheBlue)\ **Post date:** [November 10, 2023, 3:50am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2024-us-senate-elections/975149/127 "2023-11-10T03:50:52Z")
I think there’s at least a small chance Collin Allred, the likeliest Democratic nominee, can beat Ted Cruz. I’d guess somewhere between 5 and 10 percent. ---
**Author:** ![flurb](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/f/51bf81/32.png) [@flurb](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/flurb)\ **Post date:** [November 10, 2023, 3:59am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2024-us-senate-elections/975149/128 "2023-11-10T03:59:00Z")
As a Texan, I would love nothing more than to see Allred pull it off. Ten percent seems about right, maybe even a bit higher. But I just don’t think Texas is at that tipping point yet. Would love to be proved wrong. ---
**Author:** ![flurb](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/f/51bf81/32.png) [@flurb](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/flurb)\ **Post date:** [December 21, 2023, 3:33pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2024-us-senate-elections/975149/129 "2023-12-21T15:33:20Z")
Some new polling in the California Senate race has Democratic Representative Adam Schiff ahead of the pack, with a three-way race for second place among Democratic Reps Barbara Lee and Katie Porter and Republican Steve Garvey. The race for second has big implications given California’s jungle primary – if things keep on track, Schiff could end up facing either a tough challenge from a consolidated vote behind a progressive opponent or a relative cakewalk against a Republican. > **[Schiff riding high amidst a fierce scramble for 2nd place in CA Senate race](https://www.politico.com/news/2023/12/21/schiff-california-senate-00132816)** > > A new POLITICO | Morning Consult poll reveals Rep. Adam Schiff as a clear leader in the race with Republican Steve Garvey and Democratic Reps. Katie Porter and Barbara Lee tied for second place. ---
**Author:** ![Elendil\_s\_Heir](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/7cd45c/32.png) [@Elendil\_s\_Heir](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Elendil_s_Heir)\ **Post date:** [January 2, 2024, 8:06pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2024-us-senate-elections/975149/130 "2024-01-02T20:06:00Z")
The latest overview from CNN: [https://www.cnn.com/2024/01/01/politics/senate-race-rankings-january-2024/index.html](https://www.cnn.com/2024/01/01/politics/senate-race-rankings-january-2024/index.html) ---
**Author:** ![flurb](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/f/51bf81/32.png) [@flurb](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/flurb)\ **Post date:** [January 2, 2024, 8:29pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2024-us-senate-elections/975149/131 "2024-01-02T20:29:22Z")
Pennsylvania’s way too high at #4. Bob Casey’s a seasoned incumbent whose politics match up well with general election voters in PA. His opponent didn’t even get a third of the vote in the last PA Senate primary and lost to fucking Dr. Oz. I also think they’ve got Jacky Rosen in NV too low. The incumbent Democratic Senator won reelection in 2022 by the skin of her teeth as the Republicans picked up the Governor’s mansion. ---
**Author:** ![Elendil\_s\_Heir](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/7cd45c/32.png) [@Elendil\_s\_Heir](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Elendil_s_Heir)\ **Post date:** [January 25, 2024, 2:42pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2024-us-senate-elections/975149/132 "2024-01-25T14:42:48Z")
Some bad craziness in Arizona: [https://www.cnn.com/2024/01/24/politics/arizona-republican-chairman-resigns-kari-lake/index.html](https://www.cnn.com/2024/01/24/politics/arizona-republican-chairman-resigns-kari-lake/index.html) ---
**Author:** ![flurb](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/f/51bf81/32.png) [@flurb](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/flurb)\ **Post date:** [February 3, 2024, 12:47am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2024-us-senate-elections/975149/133 "2024-02-03T00:47:05Z")
The 2023 Q4 fundraising reports are out, and so far, embattled Democratic incumbents are strongly outraising their Republican challengers. But Krysten Sinema had a particularly anemic quarter, hopefully indicating that she won’t run again. > **[Hotline's Q4 Senate fundraising roundup](https://www.nationaljournal.com/s/724056/ihotlineis-q4-senate-fundraising-roundup/?unlock=ZGA9XX5417FBIBV0)** > > Democrats dominate the money race heading into 2024. ---
**Author:** ![flurb](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/f/51bf81/32.png) [@flurb](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/flurb)\ **Post date:** [February 9, 2024, 6:13pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2024-us-senate-elections/975149/134 "2024-02-09T18:13:14Z")
Some big moves in a couple of Senate races this morning. In Maryland, former Republican Governor and Trump critic Larry Hogan unexpectedly jumped into the Senate race to replace retiring Democratic Senator Ben Cardin. Hogan was a popular governor, and while that often doesn’t translate to success in Senate races, it puts yet another Democratic seat on the board that the party may have to dedicate resources toward. Hogan still has to get through a Republican primary in a party that largely hates him. But by waiting until the last minute to file he likely ensured there wouldn’t be any big names to oppose him. And in Montana, Rep. Matt Rosendale has filed to run in the Republican primary to take on Democratic Senator Jon Tester. This is excellent news. The establishment GOP has already coalesced around former Navy SEAL Tim Sheehy, so this sets up an ugly primary battle. And Rosendale already lost to Tester in 2018 even as Republicans were picking up seats in Missouri, North Dakota and Indiana. ---
**Author:** ![Elendil\_s\_Heir](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/7cd45c/32.png) [@Elendil\_s\_Heir](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Elendil_s_Heir)\ **Post date:** [February 12, 2024, 6:35pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2024-us-senate-elections/975149/135 "2024-02-12T18:35:48Z")
Here’s more on both: > **[Former Maryland Gov. Larry Hogan is running for the U.S. Senate](https://www.npr.org/2024/02/10/1230600501/former-maryland-gov-larry-hogan-running-us-senate)** > > The move gives Republicans a prominent candidate who is well-positioned to run a competitive campaign for the GOP in a state that hasn't had a Republican U.S. senator in 37 years. And in Montana: [MSN](https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/republican-bid-to-flip-us-senate-grows-complicated-as-montana-primary-gets-competitive/ar-BB1hWHuy?ocid=socialshare&pc=ASTS&cvid=0c0f9b1eaf3c4b6c9b33bbfa5ac19218&ei=28) ---
**Author:** ![FlikTheBlue](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/fliktheblue/32/10972_2.png) [@FlikTheBlue](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/FlikTheBlue)\ **Post date:** [February 14, 2024, 2:11pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2024-us-senate-elections/975149/136 "2024-02-14T14:11:38Z")
If Hogan wins, it would likely be icing on the Republican cake. It would likely mean that Rs also won in West Virginia, Montana, and Arizona. IMHO Jon Tester’s seat in Montana is the swing seat. ---
**Author:** ![snowthx](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/snowthx/32/10660_2.png) [@snowthx](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/snowthx)\ **Post date:** [February 14, 2024, 2:35pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2024-us-senate-elections/975149/137 "2024-02-14T14:35:23Z")
Schiff is airing an ad comparing himself to Garvey, but using kid gloves and no smear. It’s speculated this is to elevate awareness of Garvey among Republicans to get them to the polls (in what otherwise is generally a lost cause for the GOP - statewide office). As only the top two move on to the general, Schiff would rather face Garvey (as you say, it would be a cakewalk) than Katie Porter. Attack and smear ads are starting against Porter now. I am not sure how I feel about this strategy being used to elevate a more easily beaten foe over someone who presents more of a challenge. ---
**Author:** ![Kolak\_of\_Twilo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/kolak_of_twilo/32/73_2.png) [@Kolak\_of\_Twilo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Kolak_of_Twilo)\ **Post date:** [February 14, 2024, 9:13pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2024-us-senate-elections/975149/138 "2024-02-14T21:13:52Z")
Hogan is definitely well known and well regarded in Maryland but at the same time DJT hates him because of his opposition and all the mean things he said about DJT. There are 7 others in the GOP primary so I wonder if one of them could get the endorsement of DJT could that be enough to screw up the primary for Hogan? I admit I have no idea how MAGAish the Maryland GOP has become in the last few years so this may not be a real thing for Hogan to worry about. ---
**Author:** ![flurb](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/f/51bf81/32.png) [@flurb](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/flurb)\ **Post date:** [February 14, 2024, 10:21pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2024-us-senate-elections/975149/139 "2024-02-14T22:21:20Z")
> [@Kolak\_of\_Twilo](#): > > I admit I have no idea how MAGAish the Maryland GOP has become in the last few years so this may not be a real thing for Hogan to worry about. In the race to succeed Hogan as Governor in 2022, Maryland Republicans chose a far-right election denier who helped organize the rally that became the attack on the Capitol. ---
**Author:** ![Tride](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/tride/32/13907_2.png) [@Tride](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Tride)\ **Post date:** [February 14, 2024, 10:22pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2024-us-senate-elections/975149/140 "2024-02-14T22:22:04Z")
Gave $5k to Tester Sunday. These guys are such fuckers. This year is the year to go all out. Otherwise the US is pretty screwed. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2024-us-senate-elections/975149.md?page=6) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2024-us-senate-elections/975149.md?page=8)