# 2025 NJ Gubernatorial Election
**URL:** https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2025-nj-gubernatorial-election/1019338
**Category:** Politics & Elections
**Created:** [June 8, 2025, 4:50pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2025-nj-gubernatorial-election/1019338 "2025-06-08T16:50:17Z")
**Posts on this page:** 8
**Page:** 3
### Author:  [@What\_Exit](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/What_Exit)
#### Post date: [November 5, 2025, 1:56pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2025-nj-gubernatorial-election/1019338/41 "2025-11-05T13:56:51Z")
Polls have been crapping out lately usually hiding Republican Votes. Maybe Dem leaning voters have stopped answering also?
Maybe polls are now just dated and shouldn’t be trusted.
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### Author:  [@RitterSport](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RitterSport)
#### Post date: [November 5, 2025, 2:04pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2025-nj-gubernatorial-election/1019338/42 "2025-11-05T14:04:32Z")
Well, if you (or anyone) happens to run across some kind of post-mortem, I’m interested.
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### Author:  [@bordelond](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/bordelond)
#### Post date: [November 5, 2025, 5:42pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2025-nj-gubernatorial-election/1019338/43 "2025-11-05T17:42:27Z")
> [@RitterSport](#):
>
> Do you think anyone will do a post-mortem of the polling miss? I don’t think any recent polls had anything like this blowout.
For what it’s worth, some of the bigger liberal Substackers (such as **[David Kuo](https://statuskuo.substack.com/)** and **[Simon Rosenberg](https://www.hopiumchronicles.com/)**) kept showing NJ Gubernatorial polls that consistently had Sherrill up 7-15 points. They tended to treat any poll showing a close race as, essentially, BS polling gamed by the GOP.
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### Author:  [@RitterSport](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RitterSport)
#### Post date: [November 6, 2025, 1:07pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2025-nj-gubernatorial-election/1019338/44 "2025-11-06T13:07:06Z")
Turnout was practically record-breaking for an off-year, so maybe that screwed up the pollsters models?
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### Author:  [@JKellyMap](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/JKellyMap)
#### Post date: [November 6, 2025, 1:14pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2025-nj-gubernatorial-election/1019338/45 "2025-11-06T13:14:23Z")
> [@What\_Exit](#):
>
> Polls have been crapping out lately usually hiding Republican Votes. Maybe Dem leaning voters have stopped answering also?
I have no evidence, but I think it’s likely this: some pollsters over-corrected to make up for an expected gap in phone survey responses between the parties, but now pretty much everyone hates answering a stranger’s phone call.
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### Author:  [@PhillyGuy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/PhillyGuy)
#### Post date: [November 6, 2025, 1:42pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2025-nj-gubernatorial-election/1019338/46 "2025-11-06T13:42:35Z")
> [@RitterSport](#):
>
> Turnout was practically record-breaking for an off-year, so maybe that screwed up the pollsters models?
Could be.
Polling averages were off in one direction in New Jersey/Virginia and wrong in the other direction in New York City.
State and local polling just isn’t as accurate as national.
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### Author:  [@What\_Exit](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/What_Exit)
#### Post date: [November 6, 2025, 2:03pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2025-nj-gubernatorial-election/1019338/47 "2025-11-06T14:03:27Z")
This is somewhat of one:
> **[Steve Kornacki: Two warnings for Republicans in the New Jersey governor results](https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/elections/steve-kornacki-two-warnings-republicans-new-jersey-governor-results-rcna242045)**
>
> Republican Jack Ciattarelli couldn’t hold onto Trump’s gains in heavily Hispanic and Asian American areas or his own past gains in wealthy suburbs.
This one is paywalled, but if you have access to WSJ, they talk more about the pollsters [in this article](https://www.wsj.com/politics/elections/pollsters-didnt-see-the-blue-wave-coming-in-new-jersey-and-virginia-dd640214?gaa_at=eafs&gaa_n=AWEtsqcvko1AL9nCK-NkqyZrIcJhZ7DIgx1cx1dcQQI1TWBSN9YBl4B-h5m8d3wj3eU%253D&gaa_ts=690cad02&gaa_sig=4f2lRORVeaQ0-0taqZ0RBVIiKtsZ87qekmVPGPeZ-9zz3zSsEyrJ-UCtWmDuOwGYbsIq4sWKkjIw9Zpa7REPdA%253D%253D).
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### Author:  [@RitterSport](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RitterSport)
#### Post date: [November 6, 2025, 2:11pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2025-nj-gubernatorial-election/1019338/48 "2025-11-06T14:11:31Z")
I don’t have access to the WSJ, unfortunately.
But, yeah, that swing in the Hispanic vote may have been underestimated by the pollsters, too.
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