# 2026 Hurricane Season **URL:** \ **Category:** Miscellaneous and Personal Stuff I Must Share\ **Created:** [June 1, 2026, 3:48pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2026-hurricane-season/1030535 "2026-06-01T15:48:08Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 1
**Author:** ![LSLGuy](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lslguy/32/5813_2.png) [@LSLGuy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/LSLGuy)\ **Post date:** [June 1, 2026, 3:48pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2026-hurricane-season/1030535/1 "2026-06-01T15:48:08Z")
Time once again for our annual US hurricane tracking and discussion thread. Today is the start of the Atlantic Hurricane season. The Pacific season officially started on May 15, but the Central Pacific subsection which includes Hawaii also begins today. Here’s the official word to wave the starting flag: **[NOAA predicts below-normal 2026 Atlantic hurricane season | National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration](https://www.noaa.gov/news-release/noaa-predicts-below-normal-2026-atlantic-hurricane-season)**. As always, the hurricane that hits _you_ will ensure _your_ season is well above normal no matter how lightly the rest of the country gets off. And some changes to the info we’ll be able access: **[2026 NHC New Products and Services](https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/pdf/2026NHCNewProductsAndServices.pdf)**. There’s rather a lot that’s new and different you can read about there, plus a whole raft of useful urls you might want. Last of all the home page at **[National Hurricane Center - NOAA](https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/)** which will update at least every day with the current threat maps. As of today, June 1st, the eastern Pacific has two areas of interest well offshore of Central America and aimed more or less in the general direction of Hawaii a couple thousand miles away. All else is quiet. Good luck to us all. ---
**Author:** ![moes\_lotion](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/7ba0ec/32.png) [@moes\_lotion](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/moes_lotion)\ **Post date:** [June 1, 2026, 6:04pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2026-hurricane-season/1030535/2 "2026-06-01T18:04:31Z")
> [@LSLGuy](#): > > Last of all the home page at **[National Hurricane Center - NOAA](https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/)** which will update at least every day with the current threat maps. Does the website now include a “sharpie” option in case you want to puff up the predicted tracks? ---
**Author:** ![Digital\_is\_the\_new\_Analog](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/a88e4f/32.png) [@Digital\_is\_the\_new\_Analog](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Digital_is_the_new_Analog)\ **Post date:** [June 2, 2026, 11:45pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2026-hurricane-season/1030535/3 "2026-06-02T23:45:41Z")
I’m very much behind on my prep this year. I still have to go through my supplies and filter out things that expired, and restock. I also need to pull the generator out and run it - that’s critical because you can’t count on last minute repairs. It runs on propane so at least I’m not worried about gummed up fuel lines. It should be fine, but I need to make sure. ---
**Author:** ![PastTense](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/pasttense/32/14550_2.png) [@PastTense](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/PastTense)\ **Post date:** [June 17, 2026, 7:58pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2026-hurricane-season/1030535/4 "2026-06-17T19:58:36Z")
**Tropical Storm Arthur is the first named storm of the Atlantic hurricane season** > Arthur’s **maximum sustained winds are 45 mph** , which puts it above the 39 mph threshold for a tropical storm. The storm is not expected to strengthen significantly, but forecasters warn of dangerous flash floods and urban flooding. Arthur is moving northeast and is expected to move inland over southwestern Louisiana by Wednesday night. > > “Tropical Storm Arthur is **expected to produce rainfall totals of 5 to 10 inches, with isolated higher totals near 20 inches** , through early Friday” along a large part of the U.S. coast of the Gulf of Mexico, the hurricane center said in its advisory. [https://www.npr.org/2026/06/17/g-s1-128578/tropical-storm-arthur-first-named-storm-atlantic-hurricane-season](https://www.npr.org/2026/06/17/g-s1-128578/tropical-storm-arthur-first-named-storm-atlantic-hurricane-season) ---
**Author:** ![Great\_Antibob](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/g/e47c2d/32.png) [@Great\_Antibob](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Great_Antibob)\ **Post date:** [June 17, 2026, 8:12pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2026-hurricane-season/1030535/5 "2026-06-17T20:12:19Z")
Yeah, it got over the hump. It was questionable until the last minute if it the windspeed would get high enough to become Arthur. Been a bit rainy off and on the last few days in the Houston area. More rain near the coast and there’s been localized flooding and higher than normal tides but that’s about it. Sun’s already out. First time in nearly a week, so that feels a bit odd. Lots more rain to come for Louisiana into Alabama including localized flooding but that was going to happen regardless of the official classification as a tropical storm or not. ---
**Author:** ![LSLGuy](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lslguy/32/5813_2.png) [@LSLGuy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/LSLGuy)\ **Post date:** [July 19, 2026, 2:02pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2026-hurricane-season/1030535/6 "2026-07-19T14:02:27Z")
And here a month later the fat lady is once again warming up with her eyes set on the north part of the Gulf of **Mexico** where it abuts the US deep South. > [@Tropical Weather Outlook - 800 AM EDT Sun Jul 19 2026](#): > > For the North Atlantic…Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America: > > Northern Gulf of America and near Florida (AL91): > An area of low pressure located over the northeastern Gulf of > America continues to become better defined and the associated shower > and thunderstorm activity is gradually increasing. Continued > gradual development is expected, and a tropical depression is likely > to form later today or on Monday as the system moves slowly > northward or northwestward. Interests along the northern Gulf coast > from Florida, Alabama, Mississippi, and Louisiana should monitor > the progress of this system, as tropical storm watches or warnings > could be required for portions of the area later today. In > addition, this system is expected to bring heavy rains to portions > of the northern Gulf coast during the next several days. An Air > Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft is scheduled to investigate > the low pressure area later today. > > - Formation chance through 48 hours…high…80 percent. > - Formation chance through 7 days…high…80 percent. > > $$ > Forecaster Cangialosi From **[Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook](https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo.php?basin=atlc&fdays=7)**. ---
**Author:** ![LSLGuy](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lslguy/32/5813_2.png) [@LSLGuy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/LSLGuy)\ **Post date:** [July 19, 2026, 5:27pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2026-hurricane-season/1030535/7 "2026-07-19T17:27:34Z")
And here I spoke too soon. 3-1/2 hours later we have TD 2 of the Atlantic season: > [@Tropical Depression Two Discussion Number 1 @ 1000 AM CDT Sun Jul 19 2026](#): > > The area of low pressure that NHC has been monitoring in the > northeastern Gulf of America during the past few days has now > developed a well-defined low-level circulation. The convective > activity remains patchy, likely due to intrusions of dry air from > its northeast, but there is enough persistent convection near the > center and in bands on its northeast and southwest sides to justify > this system as a tropical depression. The circulation is sprawling > and still weak, however. Based on surface observations and earlier > ASCAT data, the initial intensity is set at 25 kt and the minimum > pressure is 1011 mb. The Air Force Hurricane Hunters are scheduled > to investigate this system later today, and their data will be > helpful to better assess the system’s initial structure. > > The initial motion of the system is difficult to know since it has > only recently become well defined, but our best guess is > north-northwestward at 3 kt. The system is currently caught in weak > steering currents between a ridge over the western Atlantic, another > ridge over the south-central and southwestern U.S., and a trough > over the northeast U.S. This pattern should take the cyclone slowly > northwestward through Monday night, and the system will likely be > close enough to the Florida Panhandle to bring the potential for > tropical storm conditions there. After that time, a turn to the > west or west-northwest seems to be the most likely scenario as the > ridge over the southern U.S. builds eastward, taking the system near > or across the Gulf coast during the middle and latter portions of > the week. The NHC track forecast lies a touch to the south of > middle of the guidance envelope, in best agreement with the usually > best-performing aids HCCA, TVCN, and GDMI. > > The sprawling nature of the system, nearby dry air, and some > northeasterly vertical wind shear suggest that any strengthening > should be slow to occur, especially in the short term. > Nonetheless, the system is expected to become a tropical storm as it > approaches the Florida Panhandle during the next day or two. There > seems to be a better opportunity for the system to strengthen once > it turns westward, however, the amount of strengthening will be > dependent on how far offshore the circulation is. The NHC track > forecast lies toward the upper end of the model guidance, however, > there is a low amount of confidence given the uncertainty of how > much land interaction will take place. > > Key Messages: > > 1. The depression is expected to gradually strengthen and > could bring tropical storm conditions to portions of the Florida > Panhandle, where a Tropical Storm Watch has been issued. > > 2. Interests in Alabama, Mississippi, Louisiana, and > Texas should monitor the progress of this system, as watches could > be required for portions of that area over the next day or two. > > 3. Areas of flash flooding will be possible through Thursday along > the eastern and central Gulf Coast from western Florida to southern > portions of Alabama, Mississippi, and Louisiana. > > FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS > > ```auto > INIT 19/1500Z 28.0N 85.3W 25 KT 30 MPH > 12H 20/0000Z 28.2N 85.4W 30 KT 35 MPH > 24H 20/1200Z 28.5N 85.7W 35 KT 40 MPH > 36H 21/0000Z 28.8N 86.0W 40 KT 45 MPH > 48H 21/1200Z 29.1N 86.4W 40 KT 45 MPH > 60H 22/0000Z 29.4N 87.3W 45 KT 50 MPH > 72H 22/1200Z 29.7N 88.4W 50 KT 60 MPH > 96H 23/1200Z 29.5N 91.6W 50 KT 60 MPH > 120H 24/1200Z 29.7N 95.1W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND > > ``` > > $$ > Forecaster Cangialosi ---
**Author:** ![Great\_Antibob](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/g/e47c2d/32.png) [@Great\_Antibob](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Great_Antibob)\ **Post date:** [September 1, 2026, 4:46pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2026-hurricane-season/1030535/8 "2026-09-01T16:46:12Z")
So far, the forecast of a below average season has been pretty good. But that doesn’t mean no activity whatsoever. TS Edouard is forecast to make landfall sometime in the next couple hours, most likely within 10 miles of the Sabine Pass between Texas and Louisiana. Sustained winds are currently about 50 mph and there’s limited time over water for that to strengthen and the storm is compact enough that those winds will quickly die down not long after landfall. The biggest impacts are expected to be rain, with ~3-6 inches (more possible locally) falling in a band east of Houston. Local street flooding is a concern but fortunately, the storm is a fast mover and water shouldn’t be a major issue with this one. The storm should largely dissipate late tomorrow or early Thursday as it reaches northern Texas. Over here, west of town, we might get a half inch or so. To be honest, we wouldn’t have minded if it had made its way a bit further west. The area hasn’t had significant rain in a while and outlying areas have fallen into a bit of a drought. On the plus side, after a few weeks in the upper 90s into the 100s, the cloud cover has put a damper on the temperature and that will continue through tomorrow. [https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/#Edouard](https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/#Edouard) ---
**Author:** ![EnglishGrey](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/englishgrey/32/14111_2.png) [@EnglishGrey](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/EnglishGrey)\ **Post date:** [September 11, 2026, 2:28pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2026-hurricane-season/1030535/9 "2026-09-11T14:28:00Z")
So, a new record is being set for how late in the year the first hurricane forms: > **[New hurricane season record as 'historic' El Niño leaves Atlantic eerily quiet](https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/articles/cwyzq4538j3o)** > > The Atlantic hurricane season has reached its climatological peak, but a strong El Niño means no hurricanes have formed this year. > **A new hurricane season record will be set this week as a historic and still strengthening El Niño stifles tropical development in the Atlantic.** > > To date, no hurricanes have formed in the basin, despite this week marking the peak of the season on average - and there’s no sign of development in the near future. > > It means a new record will be be set for the latest date in the satellite era (1960s onward) without an Atlantic hurricane forming. > > Currently, the record is 11 September, set in 2002 and 2013. I am sure I am not the only one who is getting anxious about **El Niño** and the ocean temperature data? > **[World's oceans hit highest temperature on record as El Niño grows](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c62m4gpnp78o)** > > The record "is another clear signal of an ocean under growing stress", according to Dr Samantha Burgess from the European Copernicus climate change service. > What is especially concerning to scientists is that the oceans are already so hot when the natural El Niño weather phenomenon is still some way off its expected peak. > > [El Niño brings unusually warm waters to the surface](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cj97npgk92po) of the eastern and central tropical Pacific Ocean. Warmer waters across such a large area means that global average temperatures typically spike too. > > El Niño is expected to keep strengthening until Christmas time, with scientists warning that it is [on course to be the strongest in centuries](https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/articles/c3ekg93vjz9o). > > This could see ocean temperatures climb yet further. > > “The fact that we are already breaking records is an early indicator of how strong the El Niño is becoming,” said Dr Jeremy Grist, senior research fellow at the National Oceanography Centre in Southampton. ---
**Author:** ![LSLGuy](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lslguy/32/5813_2.png) [@LSLGuy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/LSLGuy)\ **Post date:** [September 11, 2026, 6:13pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2026-hurricane-season/1030535/10 "2026-09-11T18:13:48Z")
It happens I’m in the Galápagos right now. Water temps around the islands are 10F above normal. Great for human swimming but … The naturalists on our expedition tell us that last time a long lasting severe El Niño hit the islands in '97-'98, something like 80% of the population of many land & sea species were killed. Primary production of phytoplankton collapses then the entire food pyramid above it all the way to apex land, sea, & sky predators mostly starve to death. Recovery takes 5-15 years for lower species and some of the slower reproducing species are still a tiny population compared to pre-1997 almost 30 years later. Nobody wants to think about a scenario where super El Niños become common or worse yet, the new full-time normal. ---
**Author:** ![Ludovic](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/l/7ab992/32.png) [@Ludovic](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Ludovic)\ **Post date:** [September 22, 2026, 9:26pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2026-hurricane-season/1030535/11 "2026-09-22T21:26:20Z")
[Hurricane Polo](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurricane_Polo) has suddenly formed in the Pacific, going from a storm to a category 5 hurricane in just 2 days. According to the NHC website, it is far enough from land that it is not expected to reach the shore immediately. But I don’t know how accurate the NHC predictions are for such a quickly growing storm. I do see however that the water temperature drops below 26C somewhere off of Baja, so if it does make it that far without turning toward land, then I’d guess the US wouldn’t get hit hard with a big hurricane. But it’s expected to still be a major hurricane by the time it gets near the _tip_ of Baja. It’s just that that’s where the prediction cone ends. I’m not sure if they’re expecting it to turn landward or keep brushing the coast until it hits cool waters. ---
**Author:** ![LSLGuy](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lslguy/32/5813_2.png) [@LSLGuy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/LSLGuy)\ **Post date:** [September 22, 2026, 10:36pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2026-hurricane-season/1030535/12 "2026-09-22T22:36:08Z")
Kind of interesting that the eastern Pacific is up to P and the normally busy Atlantic just finished their 6th consecutive nothingburger: Faye. ---
**Author:** ![Great\_Antibob](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/g/e47c2d/32.png) [@Great\_Antibob](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Great_Antibob)\ **Post date:** [September 22, 2026, 10:56pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2026-hurricane-season/1030535/13 "2026-09-22T22:56:48Z")
It’s looking like this may end up being the strongest El Niño on record. And if past El Niño events are any guide, next summer is going to be an absolute scorcher across the southern US. ---
**Author:** ![LSLGuy](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lslguy/32/5813_2.png) [@LSLGuy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/LSLGuy)\ **Post date:** [September 22, 2026, 11:00pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2026-hurricane-season/1030535/14 "2026-09-22T23:00:24Z")
Strongest and maybe longest. I was just down in the Galápagos. They are expecting mass die-offs from the severity of this El Niño. The whole food chain collapses and lotta critters all up & down the chain starve. Takes decades to recover from that. The last super El Niño was 1997-1998 = ~30 years ago. Many populations are still fractions of what they were in 1996. Thanks to AGW good bet the next super El Niño comes around sooner than 30 years. ---
**Author:** ![Great\_Antibob](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/g/e47c2d/32.png) [@Great\_Antibob](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Great_Antibob)\ **Post date:** [September 22, 2026, 11:04pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2026-hurricane-season/1030535/15 "2026-09-22T23:04:27Z")
Last one was only a couple years ago. The last several dating back to that '97 one have also all been followed the next year as being the hottest year on record. Climate change deniers were using '98 as a benchmark for years to ‘prove’ it wasn’t happening by using a local maximum. Until it was surpassed after the next one. Also associated with drought and planting delays across a fair chunk of Asia, so food security may become an issue as well. ---
**Author:** ![Jackmannii](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/jackmannii/32/311_2.png) [@Jackmannii](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Jackmannii)\ **Post date:** [September 22, 2026, 11:07pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2026-hurricane-season/1030535/16 "2026-09-22T23:07:14Z")
A meme popping up on social media notes the lack of Atlantic hurricanes this late in the season, and claims that mass media is ignoring or suppressing the story, apparently because it doesn’t fit their climate change agenda. Of course, all the major news outlets - ABC, NBC, CBS, Fox, CNN, PBS and various other well-known sources have run stories and commented on the lack of hurricanes and reasons for it. Deniers have come up with one of the dumbest and most obviously false conspiracy theories of the year. ---
**Author:** ![LSLGuy](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lslguy/32/5813_2.png) [@LSLGuy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/LSLGuy)\ **Post date:** [September 23, 2026, 12:53am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2026-hurricane-season/1030535/17 "2026-09-23T00:53:01Z")
> [@Ludovic](#): > > then I’d guess the US wouldn’t get hit hard with a big hurricane. It’s real rare for the Pacific coast of the US to eat a hurricane. Not never, but nearly never. Now what does happen regularly is the US, both southern CA & AZ, get significant rainfall from the decaying remnants of former hurricanes & tropical storms. It’s central Baja California in Mexico which will bear the brunt of any landfall with significant windspeed. ---
**Author:** ![LSLGuy](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lslguy/32/5813_2.png) [@LSLGuy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/LSLGuy)\ **Post date:** [September 25, 2026, 1:31pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2026-hurricane-season/1030535/18 "2026-09-25T13:31:27Z")
Here is a discussion about this weekend’s match-up between Hurricane Nolo versus Hawaii. Not looking like a fair fight. Gonna be a mess in fact. > **[Hurricane Nolo Brings Catastrophic, Life-Threatening Flooding to Hawaii’s Big...](https://michaelrlowry.substack.com/p/hurricane-nolo-brings-catastrophic)** > > Fay and Gonzalo sputter along far away from the U.S. as weak and short-lived Atlantic storms Our very own @CairoCarol lives on the east side of Hawaii. Hope this works out well for her. But I have my doubts. ---
**Author:** ![LSLGuy](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lslguy/32/5813_2.png) [@LSLGuy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/LSLGuy)\ **Post date:** [September 25, 2026, 1:37pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2026-hurricane-season/1030535/19 "2026-09-25T13:37:50Z")
The latest on Polo near Baja says southcentral Baja gets a Cat 3 or lower hurricane and any significant residual rainfall will get to the US more or less at the NM/TX/Mexico border. So near El Paso and points eastward from there. ---
**Author:** ![CairoCarol](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/cairocarol/32/3825_2.png) [@CairoCarol](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/CairoCarol)\ **Post date:** [September 25, 2026, 5:22pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2026-hurricane-season/1030535/20 "2026-09-25T17:22:10Z")
> [@LSLGuy](#): > > Our very own @CairoCarol lives on the east side of Hawaii. Hope this works out well for her. But I have my doubts. We’re hunkered down, all meetings and events cancelled for several days. Tons of rain falling, but that’s been the case for weeks now. The humidity gets to you after a while: all paper is practically wet to the touch, and I’ve given up on keeping my large collection of wooden utensils from getting moldy; I just scrub them every time before I use them. There are parts of Hawai’i that got slammed by Lala and unfortunately those are the same ones that will likely take the brunt of Nolo. We were in Indonesia during Lala, and I worried a lot about the large cat collective on our property (some we consciously adopted and consider ours; others have just decided to take up residence, but all are either outdoor or indoor/outdoor, since 9 inside cats would be no one’s idea of reasonable). The cat sitter never did see all of them since some are pretty shy. In the event, all cats were fine and we only lost 2 trees, which had the decency not to fall on any structures. Since we have solar power, the 5-day power outage didn’t wreck all the food we had in our large freezer. (That would have really sucked; our neighbor is a rancher who sells beef in cow fractions, so we had somewhere close to 1/4 a cow in the freezer. Without solar it all would have rotted. Gross, not to mention a huge and expensive waste.) Anyhow, Nolo will probably be more of the same and not so bad for us. I’m just glad we are home this time so we can take roll call of all the cats. And I’ll continue to contribute to recovery efforts for the areas that are harder hit. [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2026-hurricane-season/1030535.md?page=2)