# 21st Annual Super Bowl Early Picks Thread **URL:** \ **Category:** The Game Room\ **Tags:** football-nfl\ **Created:** [January 8, 2024, 4:06pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/21st-annual-super-bowl-early-picks-thread/995779 "2024-01-08T16:06:35Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 3
**Author:** ![peccavi](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/peccavi/32/388_2.png) [@peccavi](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/peccavi)\ **Post date:** [January 9, 2024, 10:14pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/21st-annual-super-bowl-early-picks-thread/995779/41 "2024-01-09T22:14:28Z")
Thought I’d drop this in here for those who haven’t committed a guess (and maybe want to go for the longest shot prediction win). 1/8/2023 Superbowl odds (Fox Sports) **San Francisco 49ers** : +230 (bet $10 to win $33 total) **Baltimore Ravens** : +350 (bet $10 to win $45 total) **Buffalo Bills** : +650 (bet $10 to win $75 total) **Dallas Cowboys** : +750 (bet $10 to win $85 total) **Kansas City Chiefs** : +900 (bet $10 to win $100 total) **Philadelphia Eagles** : +1400 (bet $10 to win $150 total) **Miami Dolphins** : +1600 (bet $10 to win $170 total) **Detroit Lions** : +2100 (bet $10 to win $220 total) **Cleveland Browns** : +3100 (bet $10 to win $320 total) **Houston Texans** : +5000 (bet $10 to win $510 total) **Los Angeles Rams** : +5000 (bet $10 to win $510 total) **Tampa Bay Buccaneers** : +5500 (bet $10 to win $560 total) **Green Bay Packers** : +10000 (bet $10 to win $1,010 total) **Pittsburgh Steelers** : +13000 (bet $10 to win $1,310 total) ---
**Author:** ![Atamasama](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/atamasama/32/12961_2.png) [@Atamasama](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Atamasama)\ **Post date:** [January 9, 2024, 10:16pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/21st-annual-super-bowl-early-picks-thread/995779/42 "2024-01-09T22:16:23Z")
I’m surprised that the Eagles are so high up there. Has nobody seen an Eagles game lately? ---
**Author:** ![peccavi](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/peccavi/32/388_2.png) [@peccavi](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/peccavi)\ **Post date:** [January 9, 2024, 10:19pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/21st-annual-super-bowl-early-picks-thread/995779/43 "2024-01-09T22:19:03Z")
> [@Atamasama](#): > > I’m surprised that the Eagles are so high up there. Yeah, I think swapping the Eagles and the Dolphins for the Browns and the Rams would be more in line with the actual odds (versus the betting odds). ---
**Author:** ![Railer13](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/railer13/32/9742_2.png) [@Railer13](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Railer13)\ **Post date:** [January 10, 2024, 3:29am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/21st-annual-super-bowl-early-picks-thread/995779/44 "2024-01-10T03:29:53Z")
It’s gonna be tough to defend my crown, but here’s my stab at it. Cowboys 33, Bills 27 ---
**Author:** ![TroutMan](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/troutman/32/6721_2.png) [@TroutMan](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/TroutMan)\ **Post date:** [January 10, 2024, 6:15am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/21st-annual-super-bowl-early-picks-thread/995779/45 "2024-01-10T06:15:22Z")
I’m going to be boring and go with the favorites. Niners 31, Ravens 20 But I’m rooting for the Lions over the Dolphins. ---
**Author:** ![Intergalactic\_Gladiator](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/intergalactic_gladiator/32/112_2.png) [@Intergalactic\_Gladiator](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Intergalactic_Gladiator)\ **Post date:** [January 10, 2024, 3:31pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/21st-annual-super-bowl-early-picks-thread/995779/46 "2024-01-10T15:31:42Z")
**49ers 27, Chiefs 24** ---
**Author:** ![Frosted\_Glass](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/frosted_glass/32/3926_2.png) [@Frosted\_Glass](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Frosted_Glass)\ **Post date:** [January 10, 2024, 8:54pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/21st-annual-super-bowl-early-picks-thread/995779/47 "2024-01-10T20:54:14Z")
**Bills 27, Cowboys 24** ---
**Author:** ![Bullitt](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/bullitt/32/5725_2.png) [@Bullitt](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Bullitt)\ **Post date:** [January 11, 2024, 5:45am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/21st-annual-super-bowl-early-picks-thread/995779/48 "2024-01-11T05:45:09Z")
Cynthia Frelund on _NFL Total Access_ posted her odds to win Super Bowl LVII: 19.4% — 49ers 18.5% — Ravens 14.3% — Bills 10.5% — Chiefs 9.9% — Cowboys 8.5% — Lions 4.8% — Buccaneers 4.4% — Browns 2.6% — Dolphins 2.6% — Eagles 2.2% — Rams 1.7% — Texans 0.4% — Packers 0.2% — Steelers I don’t understand the 49ers at #1. It should be the Ravens. I don’t know how she calculates this, but thought I’d share it here, FWIW. ---
**Author:** ![Velocity](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/velocity/32/18006_2.png) [@Velocity](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Velocity)\ **Post date:** [January 11, 2024, 6:52am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/21st-annual-super-bowl-early-picks-thread/995779/49 "2024-01-11T06:52:10Z")
I think perhaps it’s because the AFC might be considered tougher than the NFC, so it’s somewhat likelier that the Ravens wouldn’t advance to the SB to begin with than the Niners. That’s the only explanation I can think of. The Ravens have to get past the Bills, Browns, Chiefs, but the Niners have to face only a soft Cowboys or soft Eagles team. I have to like my odds if I’m San Fran. ---
**Author:** ![Kimble](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/kimble/32/19185_2.png) [@Kimble](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Kimble)\ **Post date:** [January 11, 2024, 9:20am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/21st-annual-super-bowl-early-picks-thread/995779/50 "2024-01-11T09:20:05Z")
**Ravens 17, 49ers 16** These are the two best teams and they have byes. I’ll try to differentiate my choice from the others by having it be more of a defensive battle, with the Ravens coming out on top thanks to either Justin Tucker heroics or Jake Moody anti-heroics. ---
**Author:** ![Bullitt](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/bullitt/32/5725_2.png) [@Bullitt](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Bullitt)\ **Post date:** [January 11, 2024, 10:47am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/21st-annual-super-bowl-early-picks-thread/995779/51 "2024-01-11T10:47:39Z")
That’s sound reasoning, and if it means the 49ers win the Super Bowl then I like it! ---
**Author:** ![Great\_Antibob](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/g/e47c2d/32.png) [@Great\_Antibob](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Great_Antibob)\ **Post date:** [January 11, 2024, 2:54pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/21st-annual-super-bowl-early-picks-thread/995779/52 "2024-01-11T14:54:42Z")
Lots of good reasoning and solid opinions here but I’m going the opposite way and going big on a long shot: **Steelers 15,** Packers 9 > [@Bullitt](#): > > I don’t understand the 49ers at #1. It should be the Ravens. I don’t know how she calculates this, but thought I’d share it here, FWIW. From the other thread: > [@NFL 2023: Wildcard Weekend](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nfl-2023-wildcard-weekend/995866/28): > > Possibly due to a belief that the AFC field is stronger, and that the Ravens thus have a higher likelihood to suffer a pre-Super Bowl upset than the Niners do; note that the teams ranked 3 and 4 on that list are from the AFC. > [@NFL 2023: Wildcard Weekend](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nfl-2023-wildcard-weekend/995866/29): > > Yeah, that’s almost certainly what it is. Not the list of best teams in order but a list of the likelihood of making it through the tournament. That’s going to rely more heavily on the other teams, seeding, etc ---
**Author:** ![ShadowFacts](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/shadowfacts/32/2934_2.png) [@ShadowFacts](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ShadowFacts)\ **Post date:** [January 11, 2024, 4:21pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/21st-annual-super-bowl-early-picks-thread/995779/53 "2024-01-11T16:21:51Z")
Dolphins 34, Lions 28 ---
**Author:** ![Hamlet](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/hamlet/32/2818_2.png) [@Hamlet](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Hamlet)\ **Post date:** [January 11, 2024, 4:24pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/21st-annual-super-bowl-early-picks-thread/995779/54 "2024-01-11T16:24:28Z")
> [@Bullitt](#): > > Cynthia Frelund on _NFL Total Access_ posted her odds to win Super Bowl LVII: > > 19.4% — 49ers > 18.5% — Ravens > 14.3% — Bills > 10.5% — Chiefs > 9.9% — Cowboys > 8.5% — Lions > 4.8% — Buccaneers > 4.4% — Browns > 2.6% — Dolphins > 2.6% — Eagles > 2.2% — Rams > 1.7% — Texans > 0.4% — Packers > 0.2% — Steelers > > I don’t understand the 49ers at #1. It should be the Ravens. I don’t know how she calculates this, but thought I’d share it here, FWIW. I’m generally in favor of more analytics in football, but between this and those “win probabilities”, I think they’ve gone a bit far in “making shit up !and calling it stats”. ---
**Author:** ![TroutMan](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/troutman/32/6721_2.png) [@TroutMan](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/TroutMan)\ **Post date:** [January 11, 2024, 4:28pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/21st-annual-super-bowl-early-picks-thread/995779/55 "2024-01-11T16:28:28Z")
When you’re getting 3 significant digits on a guess, maybe you’re putting too much stock in your calculations. ---
**Author:** ![AlsoNamedBort](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/alsonamedbort/32/3213_2.png) [@AlsoNamedBort](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/AlsoNamedBort)\ **Post date:** [January 11, 2024, 6:13pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/21st-annual-super-bowl-early-picks-thread/995779/56 "2024-01-11T18:13:02Z")
Current list. Let me know if I missed anyone or made an error: **AlsoNamedBort:** Ravens 28, Cowboys 24 **Dorjan:** Browns 23, Lions 20 **Chisquirrel:** Packers 28, Ravens 22 **Mean\_Mr.Mustard:** Lions 28, Ravens 24 **SuntanLotion:** Ravens 35, 49ers 22 **Munch:** Chiefs 24, Rams 18 **muldoonthief:** Bills 27, Lions 17 **Procrustus:** Browns 24, 49ers 17 **Hamlet:** 49ers 30, Chiefs 24 **Bullitt:** Ravens 31, 49ers 17 **iiandyiiii:** Bills 28, 49ers 27 **opiewan:** Lions 35, Chiefs 31 **Chronos:** Browns 5, Lions 2 **garygnu:** 49ers 24, Bills 23 **Fear\_the\_Turtle:** Ravens 31, Cowboys 24 **Ulf\_the\_Unwashed:** Bills 35, Packers 24 **Dr.Winston\_OBoogie:** Chiefs 31, Cowboys 17 **peccavi:** 49ers 38, Ravens 30 **notfrommensa:** Ravens 30, 49ers 24 **LoneRhino:** 49ers 38, Ravens 35 **Velocity:** 49ers 31, Ravens 23 **hajario:** Dolphins 24, Lions 12 **Omniscient:** 49ers 27, Bills 24 **borschevsky:** 49ers 27, Ravens 24 **FlikTheBlue:** Cowboys 24, Ravens 23 **dirtball:** Ravens 27, 49ers 21 **Showless:** Ravens 24, Lions 14 **Atamasama:** Ravens 20, 49ers 17 **Telemark:** Ravens 30, Cowboys 14 **Hampshire:** Dolphins 33, Packers 21 **Jasmine:** Ravens 24, 49ers 20 **minlokwat:** Ravens 34, 49ers 31 **zimanne:** Ravens 38, 49ers 20 **Railer13:** Cowboys 33, Bills 27 **TroutMan:** 49ers 31, Ravens 20 **Intergalactic\_Gladiator:** 49ers 27, Chiefs 24 **Frosted\_Glass:** Bills 27, Cowboys 24 **Kimble:** Ravens 17, 49ers 16 **Great\_Antibob:** Steelers 15, Packers 9 **ShadowFacts:** Dolphins 34, Lions 28 ---
**Author:** ![garygnu](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/garygnu/32/2924_2.png) [@garygnu](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/garygnu)\ **Post date:** [January 11, 2024, 7:40pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/21st-annual-super-bowl-early-picks-thread/995779/57 "2024-01-11T19:40:11Z")
My predicted score is off, the 49ers’ should be 34. ---
**Author:** ![Hal\_Briston](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/h/a9a28c/32.png) [@Hal\_Briston](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Hal_Briston)\ **Post date:** [January 12, 2024, 12:24am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/21st-annual-super-bowl-early-picks-thread/995779/58 "2024-01-12T00:24:09Z")
Ohh, what the hell. Time to go for the crazy homer pick (oh yeah…guess I need to update my location!) Steelers 24, 49ers 16 Also…holy crap, 21 years?? My creation is now old enough to drink! ---
**Author:** ![Railer13](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/railer13/32/9742_2.png) [@Railer13](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Railer13)\ **Post date:** [January 12, 2024, 3:48am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/21st-annual-super-bowl-early-picks-thread/995779/59 "2024-01-12T03:48:33Z")
Question for the OP, regarding the tiebreakers. (I’m asking because I’m running a similar pool…) Tiebreak #5 is: Closest to individual scores I am assuming that this is calculated by finding the difference between the predicted winners score and the actual winners score, finding the difference between the predicted losers scores and the actual losers score, and adding these two differences together. For example: Doper123 and ABCDoper are the only two entrants who predicted the Rams to defeat the Texans. Doper123 predicted Rams 17, Texans 16. ABCDoper predicted Rams 28, Texans 24. Actual final score was Rams 27, Texans 16. Doper123 would have a score of [(27-17) = **10**] + [(16 - 16) = **0**], for a score of 10. ABCDoper would have a score of [(28-27) = **1**] + [(24-16) = **8**], for a score of 9. ABCDoper would win, correct? ---
**Author:** ![Bullitt](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/bullitt/32/5725_2.png) [@Bullitt](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Bullitt)\ **Post date:** [January 12, 2024, 7:28am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/21st-annual-super-bowl-early-picks-thread/995779/60 "2024-01-12T07:28:19Z")
> [@Hamlet](#): > > I’m generally in favor of more analytics in football, but between this and those “win probabilities”, I think they’ve gone a bit far in “making shit up !and calling it stats”. Yeah it sure stinks like that, don’t it? [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/21st-annual-super-bowl-early-picks-thread/995779.md?page=2) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/21st-annual-super-bowl-early-picks-thread/995779.md?page=4)