# 21st Annual Super Bowl Early Picks Thread **URL:** \ **Category:** The Game Room\ **Tags:** football-nfl\ **Created:** [January 8, 2024, 4:06pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/21st-annual-super-bowl-early-picks-thread/995779 "2024-01-08T16:06:35Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 19\ **Page:** 6
**Author:** ![Telemark](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/telemark/32/372_2.png) [@Telemark](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Telemark)\ **Post date:** [January 29, 2024, 4:08am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/21st-annual-super-bowl-early-picks-thread/995779/101 "2024-01-29T04:08:21Z")
> [@AlsoNamedBort](#): > > So if the Chiefs win, it will come down to the Chiefs final score. But the two people who chose both teams have the same score for the Chiefs and both picked them to lose, so it can’t be a tiebreaker. The only thing that matters is the 49er’s score. ---
**Author:** ![AlsoNamedBort](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/alsonamedbort/32/3213_2.png) [@AlsoNamedBort](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/AlsoNamedBort)\ **Post date:** [January 29, 2024, 5:52am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/21st-annual-super-bowl-early-picks-thread/995779/102 "2024-01-29T05:52:39Z")
What I’m saying is that it’s not the final score of the Chiefs vs the 49ers, it’s the final score of the winners vs the losers, irrespective of which is which. ---
**Author:** ![eschereal](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/eschereal/32/18939_2.png) [@eschereal](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/eschereal)\ **Post date:** [January 29, 2024, 6:09am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/21st-annual-super-bowl-early-picks-thread/995779/103 "2024-01-29T06:09:31Z")
Chiefs’ score is irrelevant, because they both picked the same number. If the Niners score 28 or less, Intergalactic Gladiator wins, more than 28, it goes to Hamlet. ---
**Author:** ![Atamasama](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/atamasama/32/12961_2.png) [@Atamasama](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Atamasama)\ **Post date:** [January 29, 2024, 8:24am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/21st-annual-super-bowl-early-picks-thread/995779/104 "2024-01-29T08:24:52Z")
> [@AlsoNamedBort](#): > > it’s the final score of the winners vs the losers, irrespective of which is which. So let’s say the final score is Chiefs 30, 49ers 27. Who wins this thread contest? ---
**Author:** ![Railer13](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/railer13/32/9742_2.png) [@Railer13](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Railer13)\ **Post date:** [January 29, 2024, 1:04pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/21st-annual-super-bowl-early-picks-thread/995779/105 "2024-01-29T13:04:07Z")
> [@eschereal](#): > > If the Niners score 28 or less, Intergalactic Gladiator wins, more than 28, it goes to Hamlet. > [@Atamasama](#): > > So let’s say the final score is Chiefs 30, 49ers 27. Who wins this thread contest If @eschereal is correct (and I believe he is), then @Intergalactic_Gladiator will win. ---
**Author:** ![3AxisCtrl](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/3/ecd19e/32.png) [@3AxisCtrl](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/3AxisCtrl)\ **Post date:** [January 29, 2024, 1:25pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/21st-annual-super-bowl-early-picks-thread/995779/106 "2024-01-29T13:25:07Z")
Maybe this should be adjusted for next year. With multiple cases of right teams / wrong winner, it seems like choosing the wrong team by 3 points is better than doing the same by 6 points. So perhaps total points scored should be subordinate here. And for deciding cases of right teams / right winner, perhaps something like this would be better (if undeniably a bit esoteric): Winner is the selection with the lowest total of the following 3 values: - (error in point spread) ^ 2 - (error in winner’s points) ^ 2 - (error in loser’s points) ^ 2 ---
**Author:** ![Railer13](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/railer13/32/9742_2.png) [@Railer13](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Railer13)\ **Post date:** [January 29, 2024, 1:46pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/21st-annual-super-bowl-early-picks-thread/995779/107 "2024-01-29T13:46:51Z")
> [@3AxisCtrl](#): > > With multiple cases of right teams / wrong winner, it seems like choosing the wrong team by 3 points is better than doing the same by 6 points. Well, yes. Not sure why you would question that fact. Shouldn’t that always be the case? Or am I misunderstanding what you’re saying? ---
**Author:** ![muldoonthief](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/muldoonthief/32/3188_2.png) [@muldoonthief](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/muldoonthief)\ **Post date:** [January 29, 2024, 2:16pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/21st-annual-super-bowl-early-picks-thread/995779/108 "2024-01-29T14:16:06Z")
I agree with eschereal. Since they’ll both be on the same side of the “picked winner correctly or didn’t” flag, I think the scores they picked should stay with the team they picked it for, not switch over to winner/loser if the Chiefs do win. ---
**Author:** ![AlsoNamedBort](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/alsonamedbort/32/3213_2.png) [@AlsoNamedBort](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/AlsoNamedBort)\ **Post date:** [January 29, 2024, 4:04pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/21st-annual-super-bowl-early-picks-thread/995779/109 "2024-01-29T16:04:22Z")
So looking back through previous threads, the tiebreaker rule change was stated as “Tiebreaker should simply be number of points the prediction was off off from winning team score plus the number of points off from the losing team score.” Basically, that tiebreaker is team agnostic. You could imagine a scenario where the only two predictions left are Chiefs beating the Lions and the Ravens beating the 49ers. If the 49ers beat the Chiefs, then it would go to tiebreaker #5. It would just go off the winning and losing scores. I’ll make the tiebreaker wording more clear for next year. My guess is it won’t really matter this year, but I’m fine making it purely off the 49ers score, if @Intergalactic_Gladiator and @Hamlet agree. ---
**Author:** ![Intergalactic\_Gladiator](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/intergalactic_gladiator/32/112_2.png) [@Intergalactic\_Gladiator](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Intergalactic_Gladiator)\ **Post date:** [January 29, 2024, 5:47pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/21st-annual-super-bowl-early-picks-thread/995779/110 "2024-01-29T17:47:34Z")
That seems perfectly reasonable to me. This is very interesting how this all shook out. ---
**Author:** ![Hamlet](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/hamlet/32/2818_2.png) [@Hamlet](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Hamlet)\ **Post date:** [January 29, 2024, 6:04pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/21st-annual-super-bowl-early-picks-thread/995779/111 "2024-01-29T18:04:27Z")
Sounds good to me too. Thanks again for running the show! ---
**Author:** ![3AxisCtrl](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/3/ecd19e/32.png) [@3AxisCtrl](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/3AxisCtrl)\ **Post date:** [January 30, 2024, 12:42am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/21st-annual-super-bowl-early-picks-thread/995779/112 "2024-01-30T00:42:07Z")
> [@Railer13](#): > > Shouldn’t that always be the case? Or am I misunderstanding what you’re saying? In the present case, I’m saying that if the Chiefs prevail, **Intergalactic\_Gladiator** should be the winner, without reference to points scored. He picked the 49ers by 3, which is closer to “Chiefs win” than is 49ers by 6. ---
**Author:** ![Railer13](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/railer13/32/9742_2.png) [@Railer13](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Railer13)\ **Post date:** [January 30, 2024, 3:45am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/21st-annual-super-bowl-early-picks-thread/995779/113 "2024-01-30T03:45:08Z")
> [@3AxisCtrl](#): > > I’m saying that if the Chiefs prevail, **Intergalactic\_Gladiator** should be the winner, without reference to points scored. He picked the 49ers by 3, which is closer to “Chiefs win” than is 49ers by 6. OK, I see what you’re saying. I don’t agree, but I do see your point. I’m a bit slow sometimes. ---
**Author:** ![Telemark](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/telemark/32/372_2.png) [@Telemark](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Telemark)\ **Post date:** [February 12, 2024, 3:59am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/21st-annual-super-bowl-early-picks-thread/995779/114 "2024-02-12T03:59:30Z")
**Intergalactic\_Gladiator** for the win! ---
**Author:** ![Intergalactic\_Gladiator](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/intergalactic_gladiator/32/112_2.png) [@Intergalactic\_Gladiator](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Intergalactic_Gladiator)\ **Post date:** [February 12, 2024, 2:44pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/21st-annual-super-bowl-early-picks-thread/995779/115 "2024-02-12T14:44:12Z")
Holy cow! Thanks for hosting, Bort. ---
**Author:** ![AlsoNamedBort](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/alsonamedbort/32/3213_2.png) [@AlsoNamedBort](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/AlsoNamedBort)\ **Post date:** [February 12, 2024, 4:04pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/21st-annual-super-bowl-early-picks-thread/995779/116 "2024-02-12T16:04:24Z")
Congrats to **Intergalactic\_Gladiator**! I’m wondering if this is the first time where we had multiple people correctly guess the matchup, but not the correct winner. ---
**Author:** ![Atamasama](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/atamasama/32/12961_2.png) [@Atamasama](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Atamasama)\ **Post date:** [February 13, 2024, 4:42pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/21st-annual-super-bowl-early-picks-thread/995779/117 "2024-02-13T16:42:16Z")
I at least predicted that the 49ers would lose by 3 and that happened. 😃 ---
**Author:** ![eschereal](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/eschereal/32/18939_2.png) [@eschereal](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/eschereal)\ **Post date:** [February 13, 2024, 10:50pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/21st-annual-super-bowl-early-picks-thread/995779/118 "2024-02-13T22:50:45Z")
But you missed on the score. Granted, you were closer than minlokwat, who also picked not-the-niners by 3 – but close only count in horseshoes. And snu-snu. ---
**Author:** ![Atamasama](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/atamasama/32/12961_2.png) [@Atamasama](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Atamasama)\ **Post date:** [February 13, 2024, 11:09pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/21st-annual-super-bowl-early-picks-thread/995779/119 "2024-02-13T23:09:21Z")
> [@eschereal](#): > > but close only count in horseshoes. Tell me about it. (Remembering the end of Super Bowl 49.) [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/21st-annual-super-bowl-early-picks-thread/995779.md?page=5)