22 ammo in quantity as an investment tool

[Lemur866]

@Tranquilis

Scarcity premium - Which worked.
For a brief while.
If it isn’t on the shelf, it doesn’t matter how much it cost Winchester to make it (let’s not use Remington - nasty, dirty stuff!) - you can charge a premium. The fact that in some cases that scarcity was driven by shop owners delibertely not shelving half their order, so they could sell it via their online portal at a higher price is beside the point.

Scarcity premiums are exacerbated by panic buying. Regenerative feedback loop.

But… That cycle is largely broken now, though there remains some skittishness in the more paranoid corners.

Sure, you get the artificial scarcity with panic buying, which contributes to the scarcity, which leads to more panic buying, and so on, classic commodity bubble.

What I’m asking is how you, as an average gun nut observing this phenomenon, are supposed to make a profit from it. Unless you’ve got stocks of ammo from before the price boom, you can’t get the ammo any cheaper than anybody else. If you’re trying to buy to re-sell you have to hold your ammo for long enough that it was worthwhile. And what happens if the bubble bursts before you sell? Then you get panic selling as all the hoarders try to dump their stocks before the price completely bottoms out, and you get the classic end of the classic bubble.

You cannot time the end of the bubble, since it is based on irrational motives and chaotic interactions. The best you can do is to stay out of it, or, if you’ve got a bunch of stock on hand to sell when it seems pretty high. And then kick yourself when the prices go even higher and you think what you could have made. So hang on to it–and watch your paper profits vanish when the bubble pops.

If an gun shop is selling at really high markups from what they get from the manufacturer, that can only last so long until the manufacturer realizes how much more they could charge. And if you’re not a gun shop owner then your ability to source new stock at below market prices are very limited.

[Little_Nemo]

The basic economics is 22 bullets aren’t a natural resource or trade secret. If the demand goes up and prices rise, manufacturers will just make more of them. Any scarcity is going to be artificial and short term.

The only way you’d see a real scarcity of 22 ammo is if the conspiracy theorists are right and the government outlaws firearms and ammunition. In which case, your ammunition would either be confiscated or you’d have to sell it underground.

[Stranger_On_A_Train]

@DrDeth

and snares are by no means worthless. But you do have to figure calories burned setting and patrolling vs calories gained with a pound of squirrel meat.

and yes, Solar stills work. But the water lost in digging one is usually more than you gain back.

So, we’re in agreement that most of the shit preppers think they are going to do to ‘live off the land’ when the Big Kablooey happens is about as realistic as the physics of Warner Brother’s cartoons?

Anyway, stockpiling .22LR as an “investment tool” stacks right up there with playing the lottery for retirement and collecting Phil Collins solo albums for their artistic merits. And yet, I know that at this very moment someone with a closet packed with .22LR bricks is walking into the convenience store to buy his weekly $100 of Scratchers while humming along with a smooth jazz version of “Sussudio”. The perversity of the universe knows no bounds.

Stranger

[Tranquilis]

@Lemur866

Sure, you get the artificial scarcity with panic buying, which contributes to the scarcity, which leads to more panic buying, and so on, classic commodity bubble.

What I’m asking is how you, as an average gun nut observing this phenomenon, are supposed to make a profit from it.

The answer is basically this: Education. Ammunition supply isn’t all that opaque. If someone bothers to do their research in the face of rising prices, they can generally tell if the surge is real or artificial - Barring the uncertainties of political situations, of course. Why I didn’t bother buying multiple cases (5000 per) of rimfire is that I could see that the factories producing rimfire were working at near maximum capacity. Ok, one factory shut down to re-tool (which helped create the kickoff of scarcity), but that was retooling, not going out of business.

So - IF I wished to speculate, AND the political climate was conducive, I could look at that looming temporary bottleneck, and buy cheap, prior to the crimp. But honsetly, knowing that the scarcity was temporary, and knowing that no matter who took office, rimfire is the least likely to be affected, I’d know it was pointless. And anyone else doing a bit of basic research could see and caculate the same.

In short, the average buyer isn’t going to be able to capitalize on the shortage in any effective manner. Shop owners and online sites with established customer bases had a brief opportunity to make hay, but even for them, it wasn’t a long-term market practice. Maybe if someone EMPs the planet, those massive stocks might become valuable. but don’t count on it.

It was always a sucker bet for the consumer. Amatuers should stay out of commodity trading, and especially they should not try to speculate on temporary shortages.

[DrDeth]

@Stranger_On_A_Train

So, we’re in agreement that most of the shit preppers think they are going to do to ‘live off the land’ when the Big Kablooey happens is about as realistic as the physics of Warner Brother’s cartoons?

Yep. Having taken said courses and “lived off the land” for 5 days, I can tell you that in general- it’s Ok if you’re waiting for rescue. It can certainly extend your life when you’re lost, etc and waiting to be rescued.

Look at the TV show “Alone”. They put those guys in a primo location, lots of fresh water, fish, etc. Yes, winter is coming, but they have plenty of time to build a great shelter (and some of those shelters were really nice). They are all supposed experts and are given training and a nice full pack of stuff. They have lasted no more than 56- 87 days, and even so lost so much weight several had to be pulled for health reasons. Snares were almost useless. Fishing and foraging was worthwhile.

Alone (TV series)

So yeah, if you go outdoors do learn about Survival techniques. They can keep you alive until rescue comes.

There are few areas and fewer people that can live like that indefinitely. If you are “Prepping” as you figure it might take weeks or months to restore working 'civilization", great. But as a lifestyle- you’re just fooling yourself.

[Tranquilis]

I will note that there were some overseas suppliers that were offering 22 rimfire in bulk lots (unboxed) in multiples of 10000 rounds. Cheap but dirty ammo - mostly chinese. And really, that’s too much for even me.

Also, the scarcity scare was an opportunity for Filipino (ARMSCOR PRECISION) and Mexican (Industrias TECNOS - Aguila) companies to make themselves known in the broader American market.

[Tranquilis]

@Stranger_On_A_Train

Anyway, stockpiling .22LR as an “investment tool” stacks right up there with playing the lottery for retirement and collecting Phil Collins solo albums for their artistic merits. And yet, I know that at this very moment someone with a closet packed with .22LR bricks is walking into the convenience store to buy his weekly $100 of Scratchers while humming along with a smooth jazz version of “Sussudio”. The perversity of the universe knows no bounds.

Stranger

Heh.
I have an online-correspondant whom is sitting on 110000 rounds of 22 Long Rifle. Possibly more by now.
Dunno if he likes Phil Collins, but I do believe he plays the lottery.

[Tranquilis]

@Little_Nemo

The basic economics is 22 bullets aren’t a natural resource or trade secret. If the demand goes up and prices rise, manufacturers will just make more of them. Any scarcity is going to be artificial and short term.

While the conclusion is basically correct, the train of thought leading to it isn’t. Rimfire ammunition uses very specialized (for values of specialized) cases, and the machines that make them cannot be readily shifted from caliber to caliber. They make rimfire cases, and only rimfire cases. .22 and the various .17 rimfires use essentially the same case head dimensions. The margin on 22 rimfire rounds is thin. Speaking with a Remington Sales Rep during the middle of the scarcity panic, he stated to me (straight faced) that if he “…pushed for increasing rimfire production capacity, they’d like as not fire me.” The specialized equimpent is relatively expensive, cannot be readily re-purposed for other rounds, and is already working to capacity. Also, there’s just more money to be made in centerfire ammunition.

He also explained the artificial nature of the bubble - he was the guy who clued me into the speculators. The factories knew - and they knew the bubble was temporary. There was never going to be a responding increase in capacity - they just had to flood-out the speculators, which they did.

[Stranger_On_A_Train]

It’s actually surprising that the .22LR is even still in production. The basic design of the cartridge, originally developed for black power weapons, is long obsolete. It is, as Tranquilis notes, difficult to make and requires specialized equipment (see the previously cited American Rifleman article) and it is primarily used for plinking, basic marksmanship classes, and cowboy shooting competitions. If there weren’t so many pistols and rifles out there chambered for the .22 LR and the expectation that it be kept on market at a marginal price, it probably won’t still exist at all.

Stranger

[Tranquilis]

Well, .22 Rimfire fits in a perfet utility niche - it’s gentle-recoiling, accurate (with reasonable equipment) to reasonable distances, potent enough to take small game, without being terrifying to people with control issues.

It’s a perfect instance of “If it ain’t broke…”

[Stranger_On_A_Train]

Sure, but ammunition makers are clearly not making more than a marginal profit on it. I mean, the reasons why it is postulate with the shooting public are obvious (cheap, light shooting, good for plinking) but from the standpoint of manufacturers, it is a basic product with little room for growth or improvement. Compared to defense or hunting ammunition, it is never going to grow in market size or long term demand. The borders of .22 ammo were basically falling victim to a 21st century version of tulip mania.

Stranger

[LSLGuy]

Can you imagine the hue and cry that’d go up if one of the major US manufacturers, e.g. Remington, announced they were shutting down 22LR production for good. “Sorry folks, there’s just no margin and our tooling is plumb wore out. We’re closing the plant next month.”

The CT’er eyes would bug out so far they’d look like that scene in Roger Rabbit: http://www.dvd.net.au/movies/w/06762-6.jpg

[jz78817]

@Stranger_On_A_Train

So, we’re in agreement that most of the shit preppers think they are going to do to ‘live off the land’ when the Big Kablooey happens is about as realistic as the physics of Warner Brother’s cartoons?

I’ve always thought that. just like people who used to go around talking about what they had in their “bug out bag.” in most cases, with any large-scale SHTF incident, it’s very likely the best course of action for you is not to “bug out” with a backpack, or hit the trails as a nomad, rather you probably want to stay home and “shelter in place.” you’d want a store of non-perishable food, and if so inclined, any gun with a reasonable reserve of ammunition. 'cos honestly, in a SHTF/TEOTWAWKI situation, I’m holing up in my house and I’d rather have a 12 gauge and/or a 9mm pistol than a .22LR anything.

@Stranger_On_A_Train

It’s actually surprising that the .22LR is even still in production. The basic design of the cartridge, originally developed for black power weapons, is long obsolete. It is, as Tranquilis notes, difficult to make and requires specialized equipment (see the previously cited American Rifleman article) and it is primarily used for plinking, basic marksmanship classes, and cowboy shooting competitions. If there weren’t so many pistols and rifles out there chambered for the .22 LR and the expectation that it be kept on market at a marginal price, it probably won’t still exist at all.

Stranger

well, your last sentence pretty much answers the first. the smallest centerfire cartridge of that caliber is the .22 Hornet, which with muzzle velocities of 3,000 fps is a class above .22LR. The most common .22 cartridge (.223 Remington/5.56 NATO) is an absolute boomer in comparison, especially in an indoor range.

[thelurkinghorror]

I just bought 2 525 round boxes of .22 for $35 each. The (IMHO) crappy Remington Golden Bullet, but it was literally the first bulk .22 I have seen in 8 years for sale, except 1 time when it was marked up to $60 and therefore wasn’t flying off the shelves. The only other bulk .22 I bought in this time was from a guy who knew a guy who worked in the archery department of a sporting goods store. Paid cost then. I could buy a bunch of 50 round boxes, but it’s the principle, man!

I shoot ammo that was made in countries that no longer exist. As mentioned, ammo doesn’t really go bad unless stored poorly. A bigger issue is corrosiveness in the primers used in old ammo. Some of the old rounds may no longer be produced (or in small numbers), so finding a gun that goes with them would also be difficult.

@Dewey_Finn

My question would be whether you’d be allowed, as a private individual, to sell the ammo when you want to? Do you need a license?

No license needed, except California passed a law to require an FFL, didn’t they?

In most places, you DO need a license to trap game, though I understand most people are talking about hypothetical Shit Hits the Fan scenarios where nobody is going to enforce that particular law.

Also, I would think if there’s a fire in your house, the ammo might be a hazard for the fire department.

Ammo isn’t really a hazard in a fire the way you think it might be. Without being in a chamber that generates pressure and rifling, the bullet is not really dangerous. Mythbusters did a segment. If a gun was loaded and in a fire, that could be potentially dangerous.

Of course the flammability is a different issue.

@Whiskey_Dickens

Wait, what?!? Did you mean to say “box of 500?”

In Canada, I’m paying $3.19 CDN for a 50rnd box of Federal blue (my local Bass Pro). Average price here is about $5 for standard stuff.

$13 seems too low for 500, and too high for 50 in my experience in the US. As I said, I don’t buy 50 packs often, but $5 was what I last paid, maybe 2 years ago.

@DrDeth

Snares (and deadfall traps), much like solar stills- are things taught in survival courses where almost every time the calorie or water used in setting them up will exceed by many times the amount gathered.

Possibly a highjack, but I’ve heard this before, and isn’t the point of solar stills that they can be reused? You’d waste more water digging it that it makes in a day, but for long term survival wouldn’t it be okay?

[Little_Nemo]

@Tranquilis

While the conclusion is basically correct, the train of thought leading to it isn’t. Rimfire ammunition uses very specialized (for values of specialized) cases, and the machines that make them cannot be readily shifted from caliber to caliber. They make rimfire cases, and only rimfire cases. .22 and the various .17 rimfires use essentially the same case head dimensions. The margin on 22 rimfire rounds is thin. Speaking with a Remington Sales Rep during the middle of the scarcity panic, he stated to me (straight faced) that if he “…pushed for increasing rimfire production capacity, they’d like as not fire me.” The specialized equimpent is relatively expensive, cannot be readily re-purposed for other rounds, and is already working to capacity. Also, there’s just more money to be made in centerfire ammunition.

He also explained the artificial nature of the bubble - he was the guy who clued me into the speculators. The factories knew - and they knew the bubble was temporary. There was never going to be a responding increase in capacity - they just had to flood-out the speculators, which they did.

You’re right but this just reflects the fact that demand is relatively constant, Manufacturers aren’t going to spend the money to increase production because of a temporary surge in sales caused by a rumor the some politician is going to confiscate ammo next month. So a surge like that can cause a temporary shortage and drive up prices of the stock available in stores.

But if there was a genuine increase in demand - say shooting became a popular fad and a few million people started going to ranges every weekend - then the manufacturers could and would increase production. There’s nothing imposing an upper limit on how many rounds can be made.

[drewder]

You have a danger of the government deciding to restrict ammo sales to ffl holders. You risk making it very difficult to liquidate your asset.

[Common_Tater]

.22 rifles are just plain fun. It’s very likely the first round many people have experience with, a single shot bolt action was standard for familiarization. No recoil to speak of, no huge muzzle blast, or ear splitting report. Perfect for training. They even make .22 “shorts”, an even more recoil friendly round. .22 used to be super inexpensive to shoot. So plinking cans was quality entertainment for a few hours.

It doesn’t take up any room, so putting up a supply isn’t a bad plan. Then you can look wistfully at the price tag in later years, like everything else these days.

[Asuka]

Something Awful had a good thread on their gun forum where they figured out what preppers we’re doing with their stockpiled .22LR. Quite a number of people on Facebook/Craigslist and the like were literally trading .22lr for goods and services, as in “Will trade 5,000 rounds for a pistol” or “Need somebody to mow my lawn, will trade a 50 round box for your work”.

Posters would contact them for funsies and haggle with them and post the results as they tried to figure out the logical limit of what they would trade for including sextoys. One guy managed to actually see one in person for the aforementioned pistol trade (was giving up a broken handgun that was worthless to him) only to see the buyer the next day offer to trade the broken pistol for 10,000 rounds of .22lr.

[LSLGuy]

Wheeling and dealing in second hand merchandise to dubious net profit seems to appeal to the same folks as owning guns does. It’s amazing to me how many shooters seem to have much more fun buying and selling than they do shooting.

But if you suggest they start dealing in antique teapots instead because the paperwork is easier they get all fussy at you. Whodathunkit??

[Tranquilis]

@Stranger_On_A_Train

Sure, but ammunition makers are clearly not making more than a marginal profit on it.

Stranger

They have the machinery, and they still do make a profit - if only a slender one. There’s no real downside to producing it, especially since it’s a highly reliable seller. Increasing capacity? Yeah, that would be too costly - unless prices went up substantially. Wooden pencils are equally obsolete, and yet they are still made - because people will buy them and use them.