# 3000 Charter Members **URL:** \ **Category:** About This Message Board\ **Created:** [April 15, 2004, 5:33pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/3000-charter-members/240196 "2004-04-15T17:33:42Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 3
**Author:** ![Chronos](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/chronos/32/134_2.png) [@Chronos](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Chronos)\ **Post date:** [April 20, 2004, 7:22pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/3000-charter-members/240196/41 "2004-04-20T19:22:43Z")
Incidentally, **Earthling** , what sort of fitting function are you using? And is it a theoretical model, or just an arbitrarily chosen functional form to fit the data? The largish deviation between the two curves for early points suggests that you’ve increased your degrees of freedom between the two fits. You do have significantly more points than degrees of freedom, right? ---
**Author:** ![Earthling](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/90db22/32.png) [@Earthling](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Earthling)\ **Post date:** [April 20, 2004, 8:05pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/3000-charter-members/240196/42 "2004-04-20T20:05:52Z")
It’s not a theoretical model. I simply used Excel’s “add trendline” function for its charts to fit the data already available. I do wish that I had the brains and tools to do a better analysis. (Yo, **kabbes**! Check in here!) The first projection was plotted on a power curve using the formula that Excel supplied: y = 826.48x[sup]0.246[/sup] R[sup]2[/sup] = 0.9971 The new projection was plotted on a 5th-order polynomial curve with the formula (courtesy Excel, again): y = 3E-08x[sup]5[/sup] - 2E-05x[sup]4[/sup] + 0.0056x[sup]3[/sup] - 0.7022x[sup]2[/sup] + 48.967x + 931.68 R[sup]2[/sup] = 0.999 I assume the “E” stands for powers of 10. If anyone wants to play with the data themselves, this is what I’ve been working with: ```auto Time CMs (no SDSAB) 2004/03/23 02:10 AM 1002 2004/03/24 11:25 AM 1500 2004/03/27 06:26 AM 2005 2004/03/29 02:00 PM 2205 2004/03/30 09:30 PM 2300 2004/03/31 09:32 PM 2376 2004/04/01 12:00 PM 2430 2004/04/02 12:45 PM 2454 2004/04/03 12:31 AM 2492 2004/04/04 12:18 AM 2534 2004/04/05 12:02 AM 2575 2004/04/06 12:55 AM 2629 2004/04/07 12:05 AM 2669 2004/04/08 12:05 AM 2715 2004/04/09 12:38 AM 2750 2004/04/10 12:15 AM 2789 2004/04/11 12:05 AM 2822 2004/04/12 03:07 AM 2851 2004/04/13 12:35 AM 2900 2004/04/14 12:25 AM 2932 2004/04/15 12:15 AM 2968 2004/04/16 12:11 AM 3025 2004/04/17 03:30 AM 3081 2004/04/18 12:05 AM 3117 2004/04/19 02:55 AM 3167 2004/04/20 12:11 AM 3240 ``` ---
**Author:** ![Earthling](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/90db22/32.png) [@Earthling](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Earthling)\ **Post date:** [April 21, 2004, 12:42am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/3000-charter-members/240196/43 "2004-04-21T00:42:29Z")
We just broke through 3,400, folks. 3,401 at 7:37 p.m. CDT, to be exact. On the way to 3,500 with ~17 hours to go. ---
**Author:** ![Qadgop\_the\_Mercotan](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/qadgop_the_mercotan/32/83_2.png) [@Qadgop\_the\_Mercotan](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Qadgop_the_Mercotan)\ **Post date:** [April 21, 2004, 1:00am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/3000-charter-members/240196/44 "2004-04-21T01:00:14Z")
Thank you for that kind update. I wish we had one of those counters so we could watch the action. Could you continue posting them until noon tomorrow? Possibly every hour on the hour? Yes, seriously! 😃 ---
**Author:** ![bordelond](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/bordelond/32/150_2.png) [@bordelond](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/bordelond)\ **Post date:** [April 21, 2004, 2:03am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/3000-charter-members/240196/45 "2004-04-21T02:03:32Z")
> [@Earthling](#): > > We just broke through 3,400, folks. 3,401 at 7:37 p.m. CDT, to be exact. > > On the way to 3,500 with ~17 hours to go. 79 subscribers in the last 7 hours … not bad! ---
**Author:** ![Lockz](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/l/f4b2a3/32.png) [@Lockz](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Lockz)\ **Post date:** [April 21, 2004, 2:14am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/3000-charter-members/240196/46 "2004-04-21T02:14:59Z")
Might as well throw another number in, I’ve decided (after a month) to stay. I’ve thought about it, and thought of all the times that I wanted to post but held back.\* Quite a few. Thought of the times I wanted to search on something, and that was a lot. Then I realized that I like it here and really wanted to stay. So: NumberOfCharterMembers++; // \*\* - Yes, I know I could post as a Guest, but I wanted to see how many times I would post in an average month to see if it’s worth it. \*\* Assuming my credit card works with the subscription model here. If it doesn’t, the admins’ll hear from me! ---
**Author:** ![Earthling](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/90db22/32.png) [@Earthling](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Earthling)\ **Post date:** [April 21, 2004, 5:13am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/3000-charter-members/240196/47 "2004-04-21T05:13:20Z")
Checking in for my (roughly) once-per-day data point, I see that we’re now at 3463 Charter Members (no SDSAB). We’ve added 223 CMs in the last 24 hours, so if this rate keeps up until the cutoff at noon, we’ll have 3500 licked easily. ---
**Author:** ![Chronos](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/chronos/32/134_2.png) [@Chronos](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Chronos)\ **Post date:** [April 21, 2004, 5:26am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/3000-charter-members/240196/48 "2004-04-21T05:26:30Z")
> [@](#): > > The first projection was plotted on a power curve using the formula that Excel supplied: > > ``` > y = 826.48x[sup]0.246[/sup] > R[sup]2[/sup] = 0.9971 > > ``` > > The new projection was plotted on a 5th-order polynomial curve with the formula (courtesy Excel, again): > > ``` > y = 3E-08x[sup]5[/sup] - 2E-05x[sup]4[/sup] + 0.0056x[sup]3[/sup] - 0.7022x[sup]2[/sup] + 48.967x + 931.68 > R2 = 0.999 > > ``` Interesting. The power law worked remarkably well, fitting 20+ data points at a cost of only two degrees of freedom. Given that, I would stay well clear of polynomials (especially fifth order polynomials! Eek!), and try to extend the power law in some manner to include the upturn at the end. Perhaps a sum of power laws? The big problem, though, is that we have so few points in the upturn, so it’s hard to judge exactly what form the modification should take. Another point, incidentally: The power law (or sum of power laws) is explicitly monotonically increasing and explicitly zero at the origin, while the quintic is neither. Since these are both features characteristic of the data, that should be reflected in our model. Tomorrow afternoon, I’ll play around with the data some, see what I can come up with. In the meanwhile, it might be instructive to plot the results on a log-log scale (this will probably be under “axis options”, or somesuch), since a log-log scale will turn a power law into a straight line. ---
**Author:** ![ReuvenB](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/9fc348/32.png) [@ReuvenB](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ReuvenB)\ **Post date:** [April 21, 2004, 11:37am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/3000-charter-members/240196/49 "2004-04-21T11:37:39Z")
3484 charter members as of this post. ---
**Author:** ![The\_Seventh\_Deadly\_Finn](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/6bbea6/32.png) [@The\_Seventh\_Deadly\_Finn](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/The_Seventh_Deadly_Finn)\ **Post date:** [April 21, 2004, 11:53am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/3000-charter-members/240196/50 "2004-04-21T11:53:09Z")
> [@XWalrus2](#): > > 3484 charter members as of this post. Make that 3485… ---
**Author:** ![The\_Seventh\_Deadly\_Finn](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/6bbea6/32.png) [@The\_Seventh\_Deadly\_Finn](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/The_Seventh_Deadly_Finn)\ **Post date:** [April 21, 2004, 11:55am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/3000-charter-members/240196/51 "2004-04-21T11:55:26Z")
> [@thetruewheel](#): > > Make that 3485… God licked my brain, ho-ha! …um, this _is_ the place for test posts, right? ---
**Author:** ![SpaceDog](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/spacedog/32/9932_2.png) [@SpaceDog](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/SpaceDog)\ **Post date:** [April 21, 2004, 1:42pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/3000-charter-members/240196/52 "2004-04-21T13:42:24Z")
Well **Ed Zotti** ’s saying 3,503 over [here](http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=4778781&postcount=105) which doesn’t tie up with my counting on the Show Groups page (I got 3489). So he has newer information than that page or I’m wrong or something. In any case he’s delirious and we’ve passed the 35 hundred barrier. SD ---
**Author:** ![alterego](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/6bbea6/32.png) [@alterego](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/alterego)\ **Post date:** [April 21, 2004, 1:46pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/3000-charter-members/240196/53 "2004-04-21T13:46:18Z")
Ed has access to the actual data, including SDSAB and moderators that have paid. Indicating that 14 of them have paid. ---
**Author:** ![mkl12](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/b4bc9f/32.png) [@mkl12](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/mkl12)\ **Post date:** [April 21, 2004, 2:23pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/3000-charter-members/240196/54 "2004-04-21T14:23:32Z")
> [@alterego](#): > > Ed has access to the actual data, including SDSAB and moderators that have paid. Indicating that 14 of them have paid. I think its more likely that **Ed** ’s count includes all 19 SDSABs and that in the time between **Ed** ’s and **SpaceDog** ’s counts 5 more members joined. ---
**Author:** ![bordelond](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/bordelond/32/150_2.png) [@bordelond](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/bordelond)\ **Post date:** [April 21, 2004, 3:09pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/3000-charter-members/240196/55 "2004-04-21T15:09:44Z")
The point is now moot, as of 1000 CDT: **3,508** Charter Members **3,511** Charter Members + three confirmed paid SDSAB **3,527** Charter Members + all SDSAB (Mods not included) ---
**Author:** ![Hamadryad](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/h/6de8d8/32.png) [@Hamadryad](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Hamadryad)\ **Post date:** [April 21, 2004, 4:06pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/3000-charter-members/240196/56 "2004-04-21T16:06:49Z")
> [@Earthling](#): > > …if this rate keeps up until the cutoff at noon, we’ll have 3500 licked easily. Your poor tongue. ---
**Author:** ![alterego](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/6bbea6/32.png) [@alterego](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/alterego)\ **Post date:** [April 21, 2004, 8:03pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/3000-charter-members/240196/57 "2004-04-21T20:03:52Z")
> [@mkl12](#): > > I think its more likely that **Ed** ’s count includes all 19 SDSABs and that in the time between **Ed** ’s and **SpaceDog** ’s counts 5 more members joined. It’s quite possible, but then one must wonder how you account for the SDSAB and moderators that we know have paid, due to them saying so. ---
**Author:** ![SpaceDog](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/spacedog/32/9932_2.png) [@SpaceDog](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/SpaceDog)\ **Post date:** [April 21, 2004, 8:54pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/3000-charter-members/240196/58 "2004-04-21T20:54:49Z")
> [@mkl12](#): > > I think its more likely that Ed’s count includes all 19 SDSABs and that in the time between Ed’s and SpaceDog’s counts 5 more members joined. > [@alterego](#): > > It’s quite possible, but then one must wonder how you account for the SDSAB and moderators that we know have paid, due to them saying so. Is it possible that some (poor fools) joined and got banned and therefore don’t show up in the Charter Member list but are still being counted by **Ed**? Or that the Charter Member page is only updated every once in a while ? Of course it’s entirely possible that I stuffed up the counting. I was using a wee linux script that I knocked together (while I should have been doing something far more profitable for my employer) to scan the HTML source. It’s not unlikely that I screwed up the count by a few members. It all depends how it’s counted, in any case it’s still a staggering sign up rate, and still time before the new deadline. SD ---
**Author:** ![mkl12](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/b4bc9f/32.png) [@mkl12](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/mkl12)\ **Post date:** [April 21, 2004, 8:59pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/3000-charter-members/240196/59 "2004-04-21T20:59:46Z")
> [@alterego](#): > > It’s quite possible, but then one must wonder how you account for the SDSAB and moderators that we know have paid, due to them saying so. I don’t think the software distinguishes between paying and non-paying SDMBs. There are several categories of posters, such as Charter Member, Moderator or SDSAB. To the software it doesn’t matter if you were moved to one of those categories automatically for paying the subscription fee or manually by an admin. Once you are a Charter Member or SDSAB you are treated the same as everyone else in that category. ---
**Author:** ![Earthling](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/90db22/32.png) [@Earthling](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Earthling)\ **Post date:** [April 21, 2004, 9:17pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/3000-charter-members/240196/60 "2004-04-21T21:17:11Z")
> [@SpaceDog](#): > > Is it possible that some (poor fools) joined and got banned and therefore don’t show up in the Charter Member list but are still being counted by **Ed**? I’m aware of two Charter Members who were banned, and their usernames don’t show up in the Forum Leaders view. If the software (or **Ed** ) only looks at who have paid, however, then they would be counted into the subscriber population. But just these two won’t account for the large-ish discrepancy unless there have been more bannings that no one noticed. Or, one or more of the other hypotheses so far posited are correct. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/3000-charter-members/240196.md?page=2) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/3000-charter-members/240196.md?page=4)