# 4 way 2016 race? **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Created:** [July 27, 2015, 2:24am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/4-way-2016-race/726284 "2015-07-27T02:24:57Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 14\ **Page:** 2
**Author:** ![Kolak\_of\_Twilo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/kolak_of_twilo/32/73_2.png) [@Kolak\_of\_Twilo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Kolak_of_Twilo)\ **Post date:** [July 28, 2015, 8:53pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/4-way-2016-race/726284/21 "2015-07-28T20:53:16Z")
> [@adaher](#): > > Even if the polls looked something like this? > > Sanders 34% > Bush 24% > Clinton 23% > Trump 19% If the polls looked like that Sanders wouldn’t run as a third or fourth party candidate because he would be the frickin’ Democratic nominee for chrissakes! Ridiculous. ---
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [July 28, 2015, 9:20pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/4-way-2016-race/726284/22 "2015-07-28T21:20:42Z")
Not necessarily. It’s entirely possible that Sanders could do better than Clinton among independents. ---
**Author:** ![Kolak\_of\_Twilo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/kolak_of_twilo/32/73_2.png) [@Kolak\_of\_Twilo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Kolak_of_Twilo)\ **Post date:** [July 28, 2015, 11:44pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/4-way-2016-race/726284/23 "2015-07-28T23:44:46Z")
> [@adaher](#): > > Not necessarily. It’s entirely possible that Sanders could do better than Clinton among independents. But unless they vote in the D primary in their state for Bernie, \*\*IT. DOESN’T. MATTER. \*\* He has ruled out running as an independent or third party candidate. Won’t do it. Not gonna happen anywhere but in your imagination. I _really_ gotta get my hands on some of what you’re smoking. ---
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [July 28, 2015, 11:47pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/4-way-2016-race/726284/24 "2015-07-28T23:47:02Z")
So a guy who has always run as an independent, always been willing to risk a Republican being elected because he split the leftie vote, now finds religion? I say he’s taken that stance because he’s not trying to win. He’s trying to move the conversation to the left. But what if he can win? What if he comes close, but loses only because Clinton played dirty? What if angry supporters clamor for him to run, the Green Party offers him the nomination if he wants it, and polls show he can win in a 4-person field? Now of course we can call this imaginary because the odds of any of this happening are extremely remote. Just not remote enough to say never. Clinton very well might fight dirty. Sanders very well might make it a close race. Trump may very well run as an independent, thus making Sanders’ entrance not nearly as likely to doom the Democrat. And Sanders’ refreshing honesty could very well appeal to independents who are Democrat-leaners and even some Republicans who are tired of political BS and just want someone who will level with them. And please. “I won’t run…” Hmmm, I wonder who said that? Oh yeah, the bullshitter currently in the Oval Office. ---
**Author:** ![actualliberalnotoneofthose](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/e79b87/32.png) [@actualliberalnotoneofthose](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/actualliberalnotoneofthose)\ **Post date:** [July 28, 2015, 11:55pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/4-way-2016-race/726284/25 "2015-07-28T23:55:03Z")
> [@BobLibDem](#): > > There will not be a 4 way. There will not be a 3 way. There will be no brokered conventions. The election will not go to the House. Every year the same speculations, every year they don’t come true. > > Trump will not waste his own money on a third party run. Sanders will not run and deny the White House to Hillary. None of these will happen. It’s more likely that Hillary will dance with Bigfoot at the inaugural ball. This. a “3rd” or “4th” candidate will not win. I mean, technically it’s always a 3 or 4-way election because there are always 3 or 4 candidates on enough ballots to mathematically win and usually at least 5-6 candidates on a significant number of states. But outside of the top 2, there is no race. Our system is set up in such a way and then re-affirmed through so many subsequent policies that it is pretty near impossible for a minor party or outside candidate, even a billionaire buffoon, to win. ---
**Author:** ![iiandyiiii](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/iiandyiiii/32/7924_2.png) [@iiandyiiii](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/iiandyiiii)\ **Post date:** [July 28, 2015, 11:58pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/4-way-2016-race/726284/26 "2015-07-28T23:58:07Z")
> [@adaher](#): > > So a guy who has always run as an independent, always been willing to risk a Republican being elected because he split the leftie vote, now finds religion? Cite that he’s ever “been willing to risk a Republican being elected”? Did he ever run against a Democrat with a chance to win? ---
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [July 29, 2015, 12:01am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/4-way-2016-race/726284/27 "2015-07-29T00:01:35Z")
Yes, his first House race he actually did cause the election to be won by a Republican: > [@](#): > > In 1988, incumbent Republican Congressman Jim Jeffords decided to run for the U.S. Senate, vacating Vermont’s at-large congressional district. Republican Lieutenant Governor Peter Smith won the House election with a plurality of 41% of the vote. Sanders, who ran as an independent, placed second with 38% of the vote, while Democratic State Representative Paul N. Poirier placed third with 19% of the vote. > **[Bernie Sanders](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bernie_Sanders#Elections)** > > Bernard Sanders (born September 8, 1941) is an American politician and activist who is the senior United States senator from Vermont. Sanders is the longest-serving independent in U.S. congressional history, but maintains a close relationship with the Democratic Party, having caucused with House and Senate Democrats for most of his congressional career and sought the party's presidential nomination in 2016 and 2020. Of course, since Sanders got twice as many votes as the Democrat, it’s fair to call that one the Democrats’ fault. But that’s my point. If a general election poll was to show Sanders polling ahead of Clinton, it’s the same dynamic. In my hypothetical, Sanders leads a 4-way field by 10 points. That’s a pretty tempting race if you’re a career independent. A chance to make history. ---
**Author:** ![iiandyiiii](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/iiandyiiii/32/7924_2.png) [@iiandyiiii](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/iiandyiiii)\ **Post date:** [July 29, 2015, 12:09am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/4-way-2016-race/726284/28 "2015-07-29T00:09:11Z")
> [@adaher](#): > > Yes, his first House race he actually did cause the election to be won by a Republican: > > [Bernie Sanders - Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bernie_Sanders#Elections) > > Of course, since Sanders got twice as many votes as the Democrat, it’s fair to call that one the Democrats’ fault. > > But that’s my point. If a general election poll was to show Sanders polling ahead of Clinton, it’s the same dynamic. In my hypothetical, Sanders leads a 4-way field by 10 points. That’s a pretty tempting race if you’re a career independent. A chance to make history. If we are to believe that Sanders is not ego-driven (unlike most politicians), then that shouldn’t matter to him. But the likelihood of him leading a 4 way race is probably even lower than Trump’s chances of winning the Republican nomination. ---
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [July 29, 2015, 12:14am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/4-way-2016-race/726284/29 "2015-07-29T00:14:00Z")
Again, it would take an extremely unlikely sequence of events. It’s just not impossible, or even so improbable that we can just discount it out of hand. Each of the four things that I cited need to happen could happen, it’s just very unlikely that they’ll all happen. Most notably him appealing so much to independents that he leads Clinton in a 4-way race but doesn’t win the nomination. That would require Sanders to not only do better among independents than Democrats despite being to Clinton’s left, but it would require Democratic base voters to not know that Sanders has become more electable than Clinton. I’m just trying to help out the OP, rather than just giving the easy answer of “never happen”. The OP broached the topic precisely because it is within the realm of possibility, however remote. ---
**Author:** ![Kolak\_of\_Twilo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/kolak_of_twilo/32/73_2.png) [@Kolak\_of\_Twilo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Kolak_of_Twilo)\ **Post date:** [July 29, 2015, 12:45am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/4-way-2016-race/726284/30 "2015-07-29T00:45:55Z")
> [@adaher](#): > > So a guy who has always run as an independent, always been willing to risk a Republican being elected because he split the leftie vote, now finds religion? > > I say he’s taken that stance because he’s not trying to win. He’s trying to move the conversation to the left. But what if he can win? What if he comes close, but loses only because Clinton played dirty? What if angry supporters clamor for him to run, the Green Party offers him the nomination if he wants it, and polls show he can win in a 4-person field? > > Now of course we can call this imaginary because the odds of any of this happening are extremely remote. Just not remote enough to say never. Clinton very well might fight dirty. Sanders very well might make it a close race. Trump may very well run as an independent, thus making Sanders’ entrance not nearly as likely to doom the Democrat. And Sanders’ refreshing honesty could very well appeal to independents who are Democrat-leaners and even some Republicans who are tired of political BS and just want someone who will level with them. > > And please. “I won’t run…” Hmmm, I wonder who said that? Oh yeah, the bullshitter currently in the Oval Office. I _really_, _ **REALLY** _, gotta get my hands on some of what you’re smoking. ---
**Author:** ![Chimera](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/c/8e8cbc/32.png) [@Chimera](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Chimera)\ **Post date:** [July 29, 2015, 1:58am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/4-way-2016-race/726284/31 "2015-07-29T01:58:34Z")
I just want a 3-way race. Sanders (_“Socialist!”_ swoons Fox News, breaking out the fainting couches) and some young firebrand like Corey Booker (who does good PR but I honestly can’t tell you anything he’s done in office). “First Black Vice-President” The Revenge of George W Bush; aka Jeb Bush-Liz Cheney (to be totally ironic) Donald Trump-Sarah Palin For pure fascist yet strangely anti-government DERP. Something like this is actually semi-plausible (well maybe not the Liz Cheney part), which makes it all the more :eek:. ---
**Author:** ![foolsguinea](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/foolsguinea/32/14751_2.png) [@foolsguinea](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/foolsguinea)\ **Post date:** [August 8, 2015, 1:14am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/4-way-2016-race/726284/32 "2015-08-08T01:14:27Z")
> [@Buck\_Godot](#): > > Actually Trump is saying so because threatening to do so continues to focus attention on Trump. but I agree with your main point. Trump doesn’t care nearly as much about making sure a Conservative gets into the whitehouse as Sanders cares about getting a Liberal in. The Tories and Grits can run on this side of the border now? ---
**Author:** ![Tim\_T-Bonham.net](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/46a35a/32.png) [@Tim\_T-Bonham.net](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Tim_T-Bonham.net)\ **Post date:** [August 8, 2015, 11:29pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/4-way-2016-race/726284/33 "2015-08-08T23:29:00Z")
> [@TriPolar](#): > > He has no intention of spending tons of his own money on this election. He’ll only run 3rd party if someone else is paying the bill. > [@BobLibDem](#): > > Trump will not waste his own money on a third party run. > [@RTFirefly](#): > > Given his talent for getting free media, a fairly small investment by his standards will go a long way. Given that he wouldn’t be ‘in it to win it,’ as they say, he can easily afford to blow the $100 million on an independent candidacy that would enable him to make plenty of noise right into November 2016. Trump doesn’t have to use his own money; he can make somebody else pay – the US taxpayer. He sets up a ‘Trump for President’ committee or even creates a political party (like Perot did) as a legally incorporated group. Then instead of spending his own money on the campaign, he loans millions to that corporation. Then, after he loses in the election, that committee is left with hundreds of millions in debt, and no more income. So it files bankruptcy. Donald Trump then declares his loan to them as a bad debt, and writes it off on his income taxes. Bingo! Trump has gratified his ego by running for President, got untold amounts of publicity, and had somebody else (the taxpayers) pay for it. * * * If the Campaign Finance laws have been tightened enough to close this loophole, then he just has one of his billionaire buddies do the loan (like Carl Icahn, his planned Treasury Secretary?). Or do it through one of the big banks or Wall Street finance companies they control. ---
**Author:** ![Kolak\_of\_Twilo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/kolak_of_twilo/32/73_2.png) [@Kolak\_of\_Twilo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Kolak_of_Twilo)\ **Post date:** [August 9, 2015, 3:29am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/4-way-2016-race/726284/34 "2015-08-09T03:29:11Z")
> [@t-bonham@scc.net](#): > > Trump doesn’t have to use his own money; he can make somebody else pay – the US taxpayer. > > He sets up a ‘Trump for President’ committee or even creates a political party (like Perot did) as a legally incorporated group. Then instead of spending his own money on the campaign, he loans millions to that corporation. Then, after he loses in the election, that committee is left with hundreds of millions in debt, and no more income. So it files bankruptcy. Donald Trump then declares his loan to them as a bad debt, and writes it off on his income taxes. > > Bingo! Trump has gratified his ego by running for President, got untold amounts of publicity, and had somebody else (the taxpayers) pay for it. > > * * * > > If the Campaign Finance laws have been tightened enough to close this loophole, then he just has one of his billionaire buddies do the loan (like Carl Icahn, his planned Treasury Secretary?). Or do it through one of the big banks or Wall Street finance companies they control. Holy cow, I have not idea if this is legal or plausible to pull off but your ability to channel what I imagine could easily be Trump’s thinking is frightening. That completely sounds like how he would think. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/4-way-2016-race/726284.md?page=1)