OK, folks… thank you for all the answers and thoughtful feedback. Work was busy and it took me a bit to read and think through all this, which I’ve now done. Sorry for the delay.
So here’s what I’m going to do:
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Accept that I have limited financial know-how, and listen to the advice of posters with more experience and wisdom (and money). It was, after all, a thread from last year (Explain "retirement" to me) that made me consider having a 401k at all, vs not contributing anything in the past. So, then as now, you’ve convinced me to do something I otherwise wouldn’t have. Thank you.
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Contribute the maximum amount my employer will match (“free money” at 100% return, as you all insisted)… it’s something like 4%. It will mean cutting back on my monthly spending a bit, but I think we can make it work, just barely.
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For the time being, put it all into the Vanguard Federal Money Market Fund, despite knowing that it will absolutely lose real value relative to inflation every single year. This is less due to risk tolerance, and more just because I have vague and ill-defined ethical problems with Wall Street, the stock market, and US-style capitalism in general. It’s an emotional reaction, as several of you correctly pointed out. More on this later.
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When work settles down, spend some time and mental effort learning about existing financial markets and exploring other investment opportunities, both domestic and abroad, that might better align with my personal philosophies, and reconsider my investments then. Worst case, I might move some/all money out of the 401k at a penalty and reinvest it somewhere else — but only if I can understand the relevant systems well enough.
It’s not a perfect plan — far from it. It’s constantly losing real value. But it’s still more money than I would’ve saved otherwise. It’s a start.
The “risk” aspect, despite the topic title and OP, was only one part of this thought process. I’m not actually very risk-averse, all things considered… it’s less that I’m worried about losing my savings to a crash in the next few years, and more that I don’t like the general idea of participating in speculatory investments, especially when they’re managed solely for growth & profits (as opposed to ESG funds, for example, which are also flawed in their own ways).
But more importantly, this topic helped me recognize and process some of the unspoken, well, feelings that I’ve held towards American capitalism over the decades. I’ve had various gripes and whines about it, which, in totality, would put my financial literacy somewhere between “disillusioned leftist memes” and “angsty uninformed teenager”. That’s probably not a good place to be when it comes to managing my future
These thoughts are not well-informed enough to gel into any sort of cohesive argument, even, much less a defensible economic outlook.
So, I’ll spend some time learning the history of the markets (how did the stock market even come to be), the current practices (the longs and shorts of it, I suppose), the alternative practices, the esoteric philosophies, arguments and counterarguments, etc. before revisiting this topic in the future. It will be an interesting, exhausting, and honestly long-overdue journey. Any book recommendations, etc., would be welcome (less “this is how you save for retirement”, and “this is how the US got its modern financial system, and this is what other countries have tried”).
My ultimate goal would be have a fund set aside for retirement (or, more likely, early withdrawal due to some unforeseen emergency) that doesn’t entirely compromise my personal ethics. But that requires a more thorough understanding of all the systems involved. I’m OK with a lower ROI, but it should be out of “informed consent”, so to speak, not just some loosely-held feelings.
Thanks, all! I have to get to back to work for now, but it’s something I’ll think more about over the next few months.