# 49% vs. 41% in favour of Muslim ban **URL:** \ **Category:** Great Debates\ **Created:** [January 31, 2017, 10:54pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/49-vs-41-in-favour-of-muslim-ban/778708 "2017-01-31T22:54:22Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 1
**Author:** ![up\_the\_junction](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/u/f1d935/32.png) [@up\_the\_junction](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/up_the_junction)\ **Post date:** [January 31, 2017, 10:54pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/49-vs-41-in-favour-of-muslim-ban/778708/1 "2017-01-31T22:54:22Z")
New Reuters poll: > [@](#): > > The Jan. 30-31 poll found that 49 percent of American adults said they either “strongly” or “somewhat” agreed with Trump’s order, while 41 percent “strongly” or “somewhat” disagreed and another 10 percent said they don’t know. > [@](#): > > The Reuters/Ipsos poll was conducted online in English in all 50 states. It gathered poll responses from 1,201 people including 453 Democrats and 478 Republicans. It has a credibility interval, a measure of accuracy, of 3 percentage points for the entire sample and 5 percentage points for the Democrats and the Republicans. Kind of weird really as surely the ban is illegal. [http://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-usa-trump-immigration-poll-exclusive-idUKKBN15F2M6](http://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-usa-trump-immigration-poll-exclusive-idUKKBN15F2M6) ---
**Author:** ![GrandWino](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/grandwino/32/67_2.png) [@GrandWino](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/GrandWino)\ **Post date:** [January 31, 2017, 11:09pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/49-vs-41-in-favour-of-muslim-ban/778708/2 "2017-01-31T23:09:03Z")
I dug a bit to try and find info that would help discredit this poll, assuming there’d be a caveat of some sort. It is an online poll, which does raise a red flag, but Ipsos is highly rated by 538 and this isn’t some rando self-selecting online poll that 4-chan can brigade. This is just where the country is at right now. ---
**Author:** ![Joey\_P](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/j/919ad9/32.png) [@Joey\_P](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Joey_P)\ **Post date:** [January 31, 2017, 11:11pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/49-vs-41-in-favour-of-muslim-ban/778708/3 "2017-01-31T23:11:41Z")
I don’t even feel like it’s worth reading an article based on a poll from a sample of less than (on average) 25 people per state. ---
**Author:** ![AlsoNamedBort](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/alsonamedbort/32/3213_2.png) [@AlsoNamedBort](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/AlsoNamedBort)\ **Post date:** [January 31, 2017, 11:13pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/49-vs-41-in-favour-of-muslim-ban/778708/4 "2017-01-31T23:13:07Z")
Here’s the full breakdown: [http://www.ipsos-na.com/download/pr.aspx?id=16379](http://www.ipsos-na.com/download/pr.aspx?id=16379) ---
**Author:** ![up\_the\_junction](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/u/f1d935/32.png) [@up\_the\_junction](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/up_the_junction)\ **Post date:** [January 31, 2017, 11:16pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/49-vs-41-in-favour-of-muslim-ban/778708/5 "2017-01-31T23:16:01Z")
> [@GrandWino](#): > > I dug a bit to try and find info that would help discredit this poll, assuming there’d be a caveat of some sort. It is an online poll, which does raise a red flag, but Ipsos is highly rated by 538 and this isn’t some rando self-selecting online poll that 4-chan can brigade. > > This is just where the country is at right now. It’s why I posted it. It’s how polls are done, nothing odd about it. Does make the Dope look like a straight up echo chamber though. A couple of interesting news reports from main street USA on the UK news tonight which also reflect the same sentiment. Small town people saying they want more of this, as per election pledges. Most media remains focused on the liberal cities, rather like during the campaign. ---
**Author:** ![Omg\_a\_Black\_Conservative](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/o/7ba0ec/32.png) [@Omg\_a\_Black\_Conservative](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Omg_a_Black_Conservative)\ **Post date:** [January 31, 2017, 11:22pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/49-vs-41-in-favour-of-muslim-ban/778708/6 "2017-01-31T23:22:03Z")
It’s not a Muslim ban. ---
**Author:** ![running\_coach](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/running_coach/32/15836_2.png) [@running\_coach](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/running_coach)\ **Post date:** [January 31, 2017, 11:25pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/49-vs-41-in-favour-of-muslim-ban/778708/7 "2017-01-31T23:25:11Z")
> [@Omg\_a\_Black\_Conservative](#): > > It’s not a Muslim ban. Trump said it was. ---
**Author:** ![up\_the\_junction](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/u/f1d935/32.png) [@up\_the\_junction](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/up_the_junction)\ **Post date:** [January 31, 2017, 11:29pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/49-vs-41-in-favour-of-muslim-ban/778708/8 "2017-01-31T23:29:51Z")
I don’t know if this is ok to view outside the UK, it’s a news report that aired tonight: > **[The small US town where 70% of voters backed Trump | ITV News](https://www.itv.com/news/2017-01-31/trump-supporters-in-michigan-town-tell-itv-news-why-they-still-back-the-president)** > > Voters in the small Michigan town of Hillsdale, most of whom voted for Donald Trump, tell ITV News why they still support the President. | ITV National News ---
**Author:** ![Euphonious\_Polemic](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/euphonious_polemic/32/3002_2.png) [@Euphonious\_Polemic](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Euphonious_Polemic)\ **Post date:** [January 31, 2017, 11:31pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/49-vs-41-in-favour-of-muslim-ban/778708/9 "2017-01-31T23:31:14Z")
Thanks for reporting these poll results. It re-affirms my decision to not travel to the United States for work, conferences or vacation. Many, many people I’ve spoken to feel the same, because we simply don’t know what is coming, or what decisions might just appear out of thin air (ie the brain of Bannon). It’s simply too risky. Good luck with your country. Batten down the hatches, it’s going to be a bumpy ride ahead. ---
**Author:** ![Kimstu](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/k/ecd19e/32.png) [@Kimstu](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Kimstu)\ **Post date:** [January 31, 2017, 11:35pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/49-vs-41-in-favour-of-muslim-ban/778708/10 "2017-01-31T23:35:01Z")
> [@up\_the\_junction](#): > > Does make the Dope look like a straight up echo chamber though. Well, the Dope definitely isn’t representative of average US opinion on a lot of issues. To take another example, about 42% of Americans believe that human beings were created in their present form within the past 10K years. You won’t find a lot of Dopers agreeing with that one either. ---
**Author:** ![up\_the\_junction](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/u/f1d935/32.png) [@up\_the\_junction](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/up_the_junction)\ **Post date:** [January 31, 2017, 11:36pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/49-vs-41-in-favour-of-muslim-ban/778708/11 "2017-01-31T23:36:10Z")
Yep but that’s not this weeks political news. ---
**Author:** ![bobot](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/bobot/32/21622_2.png) [@bobot](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/bobot)\ **Post date:** [January 31, 2017, 11:38pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/49-vs-41-in-favour-of-muslim-ban/778708/12 "2017-01-31T23:38:36Z")
From linked article: “The Jan. 30-31 poll found that 49 percent of American adults said they either “strongly” or “somewhat” agreed with Trump’s order, …” “Strongly” and “Somewhat” are not near the same answer to that question. I wonder what percentege of Americans similarly polled in 1820 would have been “somewhat” in support of slavery. Or respondents to a similar question about Japanese interrment during WW2- what percentage would have been “somewhat” in favor of it. This is nothing new. It doesn’t make the respondents or the policy right. ---
**Author:** ![Mighty\_Girl](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/7bcc69/32.png) [@Mighty\_Girl](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Mighty_Girl)\ **Post date:** [January 31, 2017, 11:40pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/49-vs-41-in-favour-of-muslim-ban/778708/13 "2017-01-31T23:40:33Z")
> [@Euphonious\_Polemic](#): > > Thanks for reporting these poll results. It re-affirms my decision to not travel to the United States for work, conferences or vacation. Many, many people I’ve spoken to feel the same, because we simply don’t know what is coming, or what decisions might just appear out of thin air (ie the brain of Bannon). It’s simply too risky. > > Good luck with your country. Batten down the hatches, it’s going to be a bumpy ride ahead. I have to travel to the US for work very soon, something that had been scheduled before the election. This will be my last visit in probably a long time. I am also checking legal ways for me to avoid paying taxes in the US, something I didn’t even begrudge during the Bush years. Good luck y’all. ---
**Author:** ![Kimstu](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/k/ecd19e/32.png) [@Kimstu](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Kimstu)\ **Post date:** [January 31, 2017, 11:41pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/49-vs-41-in-favour-of-muslim-ban/778708/14 "2017-01-31T23:41:29Z")
> [@up\_the\_junction](#): > > Yep but that’s not this weeks political news. 😕 Not seeing your point. Are you saying that it’s more surprising that most Dopers disagree with a large minority of Americans about Trump’s policy than that most Dopers disagree with a large minority of Americans about human evolution? ---
**Author:** ![The\_Other\_Waldo\_Pepper](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/the_other_waldo_pepper/32/12370_2.png) [@The\_Other\_Waldo\_Pepper](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/The_Other_Waldo_Pepper)\ **Post date:** [January 31, 2017, 11:43pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/49-vs-41-in-favour-of-muslim-ban/778708/15 "2017-01-31T23:43:58Z")
> [@bobot](#): > > From linked article: > “The Jan. 30-31 poll found that 49 percent of American adults said they either “strongly” or “somewhat” agreed with Trump’s order, …” > > “Strongly” and “Somewhat” are not near the same answer to that question. On the other hand, for all I know _‘somewhat disagree’_ is shorthand for _‘oh, we find it unacceptable that Saudi Arabia isn’t on the list; utterly unacceptable!’_ ---
**Author:** ![steronz](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/steronz/32/11765_2.png) [@steronz](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/steronz)\ **Post date:** [January 31, 2017, 11:50pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/49-vs-41-in-favour-of-muslim-ban/778708/16 "2017-01-31T23:50:06Z")
> [@running\_coach](#): > > Trump said it was. Yeah, but you can’t trust that guy. He tells it like it is! ---
**Author:** ![foolsguinea](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/foolsguinea/32/14751_2.png) [@foolsguinea](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/foolsguinea)\ **Post date:** [January 31, 2017, 11:51pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/49-vs-41-in-favour-of-muslim-ban/778708/17 "2017-01-31T23:51:33Z")
Phrasing matters. [ul][li]“Do you agree with the President of the United States,” is different from, “Do you agree with New York career confidence artist Donald Trump?”[/li][li]An unfortunate number of North Americans think of Muslims as “al Qaeda and ISIS,” not as “Dr. Khan and the guys at the Mediterranean restaurant.”[/li][li]If you phrased it as, “defying the free exercise of religion,” or, “violating the First Amendment,” you’d get different results.[/li][/ul] ---
**Author:** ![foolsguinea](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/foolsguinea/32/14751_2.png) [@foolsguinea](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/foolsguinea)\ **Post date:** [January 31, 2017, 11:54pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/49-vs-41-in-favour-of-muslim-ban/778708/18 "2017-01-31T23:54:59Z")
> [@Omg\_a\_Black\_Conservative](#): > > It’s not a Muslim ban. It’s not really a Muslim Ban, I agree, although it’s being called that. But when one of my liberal cousins denounced it as racism on Facebook, a right-wing cousin tried to defend it with, “Since when is Islam a race?” I tried to explain that it’s not a ban on Muslims, and if it were, it would face a First Amendment challenge. ---
**Author:** ![Trancephalic](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/trancephalic/32/380_2.png) [@Trancephalic](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Trancephalic)\ **Post date:** [February 1, 2017, 12:11am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/49-vs-41-in-favour-of-muslim-ban/778708/19 "2017-02-01T00:11:27Z")
Judaism isn’t a race either, right? Or was it designated as one in the aftermath of the Holocaust? ---
**Author:** ![Lance\_Turbo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lance_turbo/32/6156_2.png) [@Lance\_Turbo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Lance_Turbo)\ **Post date:** [February 1, 2017, 12:35am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/49-vs-41-in-favour-of-muslim-ban/778708/20 "2017-02-01T00:35:14Z")
There’s something weird about the party ID numbers in that poll to the point where I think there’s just a straight up error somewhere, but I can’t pinpoint it. Full poll data was linked to earlier in the thread, but I will [relink](http://www.ipsos-na.com/download/pr.aspx?id=16379) for ease of access. I believe the question we’re interested in is TM1140Y17 on page 3. There are four columns in this order: total, dem, rep, ind. The number of voters in the dem, rep, ind columns are 453, 478, and 149 respectively. These don’t add up to the 1201 in the total column. There are 121 missing voters. These are probably people who don’t know or some such to the part ID question we’ll call them undecided. So lets assume we have 453, 478, 149, 121 for dem, rep, ind, und. Expressed as percents that’s 38%, 40%, 12%, 10%. However, Reuters/Ipsos just did a party ID poll [last week](http://www.ipsos-na.com/download/pr.aspx?id=16364). As percents they reported dem, rep, ind, und as 35%, 26%, 26%, 12%. This is significantly different from the party ID distribution of the poll that asked about Trump’s immigration executive order. [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/49-vs-41-in-favour-of-muslim-ban/778708.md?page=2)