# 5 Reasons Why Trump Will Win - Michael Moore **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Created:** [July 25, 2016, 6:59am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/5-reasons-why-trump-will-win-michael-moore/760835 "2016-07-25T06:59:20Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 1
**Author:** ![JohnClay](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/j/c37758/32.png) [@JohnClay](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/JohnClay)\ **Post date:** [July 25, 2016, 6:59am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/5-reasons-why-trump-will-win-michael-moore/760835/1 "2016-07-25T06:59:20Z")
[http://michaelmoore.com/trumpwillwin/](http://michaelmoore.com/trumpwillwin/) > [@](#): > > …I gave it to you straight last summer when I told you that Donald Trump would be the Republican nominee for president. And now I have even more awful, depressing news for you: Donald J. Trump is going to win in November. This wretched, ignorant, dangerous part-time clown and full time sociopath is going to be our next president. President Trump. Go ahead and say the words, ‘cause you’ll be saying them for the next four years: “PRESIDENT TRUMP.” > > Never in my life have I wanted to be proven wrong more than I do right now. > > …Here are the 5 reasons Trump is going to win: > > 1. Midwest Math, or Welcome to Our Rust Belt Brexit… > > 2. The Last Stand of the Angry White Man… > > 3. The Hillary Problem… > > 4. The Depressed Sanders Vote… > > 5. The Jesse Ventura Effect… > > …Coming back to the hotel after appearing on Bill Maher’s Republican Convention special this week on HBO, a man stopped me. “Mike,” he said, “we have to vote for Trump. We HAVE to shake things up.” That was it. That was enough for him. To “shake things up.” President Trump would indeed do just that, and a good chunk of the electorate would like to sit in the bleachers and watch that reality show… > > (Next week I will post my thoughts on Trump’s Achilles Heel and how I think he can be beat.) Personally I have thought before that it would be interesting if Trump won… though I live in Australia so I wasn’t really worried about the consequences. ---
**Author:** ![coremelt](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/c/4491bb/32.png) [@coremelt](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/coremelt)\ **Post date:** [July 25, 2016, 7:16am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/5-reasons-why-trump-will-win-michael-moore/760835/2 "2016-07-25T07:16:34Z")
Yeah but he also thought Romney would win in 2012. Put this down as clickbait, of course if he said Clinton was going to win that wouldn’t make news would it? Nate Silver he is not. ---
**Author:** ![Princhester](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/p/3e96dc/32.png) [@Princhester](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Princhester)\ **Post date:** [July 25, 2016, 7:22am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/5-reasons-why-trump-will-win-michael-moore/760835/3 "2016-07-25T07:22:41Z")
I think he is being strategic. He thinks that Trump voters are enthusiastic and will vote _for_ Trump, but many who are against Trump don’t like Hillary so will be apathetic and so not vote _against_ Trump. So I think MM is taking a pessimistic stand to try to stir anti-Trump voters into doing the needful. ---
**Author:** ![JohnClay](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/j/c37758/32.png) [@JohnClay](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/JohnClay)\ **Post date:** [July 25, 2016, 7:38am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/5-reasons-why-trump-will-win-michael-moore/760835/4 "2016-07-25T07:38:45Z")
If democrats assume he has no chance of winning perhaps that will lead to the possibility of him winning. ---
**Author:** ![Leaper](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/l/4bbf92/32.png) [@Leaper](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Leaper)\ **Post date:** [July 25, 2016, 8:47am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/5-reasons-why-trump-will-win-michael-moore/760835/5 "2016-07-25T08:47:28Z")
As I said in another thread, his position is really kind of safe for him, because he wins either way: either he’s relieved at the outcome, or he has an I told you so. If he really were THAT pessimistic, why would he bother to even offer his thoughts on Trump’s weak spot? ---
**Author:** ![asahi](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/asahi/32/8693_2.png) [@asahi](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/asahi)\ **Post date:** [July 25, 2016, 10:21am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/5-reasons-why-trump-will-win-michael-moore/760835/6 "2016-07-25T10:21:50Z")
I dunno…I desperately want Hillary to beat Trump, but even if she does, this country and indeed the world seems headed toward a state of widespread turmoil. Trumpism, Brexit, the pending decline of the EU, collapse of stable (though brutal) Middle East regimes, the movement of Turkey away from NATO, the possible dissolution of NATO…all of these are related to each other. We’re witnessing the decline of the post WWII economic and political system, largely created by the United States. This will have profound consequences for everyone, and I doubt a single candidate is up to the task of stopping it. The best we can hope for is to have someone level-headed enough to recognize our problems and not overreact or to make dumb decisions that make matters worse. ---
**Author:** ![Bricker](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/977dab/32.png) [@Bricker](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Bricker)\ **Post date:** [July 25, 2016, 10:50am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/5-reasons-why-trump-will-win-michael-moore/760835/7 "2016-07-25T10:50:11Z")
Is there really a need for a point by point rebuttal? ---
**Author:** ![Bricker](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/977dab/32.png) [@Bricker](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Bricker)\ **Post date:** [July 25, 2016, 11:16am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/5-reasons-why-trump-will-win-michael-moore/760835/8 "2016-07-25T11:16:06Z")
That said… … > [@](#): > > In another sense, however, the story isn’t so complicated. Whereas June’s polls suggested a potential blowout for Clinton, July’s polls have shown a highly competitive race. We’ll see what August’s polls bring, after the Democrats have held their convention and the bounces have died down. > **[Election Update: Is Trump Getting A Convention Bump?](https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/election-update-is-trump-getting-a-convention-bump/)** > > Polls taken during and after the Republican National Convention, which concluded on Thursday in Cleveland, generally show Donald Trump continuing to gain ground… What the hell, pollsters? Or voters? The news this morning is discussing the Trump bump and DWS’s resignation. I am utterly dismayed. I’m a Republican, and I am not voting for Trump. Who is?? Why?? ---
**Author:** ![septimus](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/septimus/32/410_2.png) [@septimus](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/septimus)\ **Post date:** [July 25, 2016, 12:03pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/5-reasons-why-trump-will-win-michael-moore/760835/9 "2016-07-25T12:03:04Z")
> [@](#): > > … 😕 > [@](#): > > … :eek: > [@Bricker](#): > > Is there really a need for a point by point rebuttal? :smack: _ **Political pundit sincerely concerned about America’s future, exaggerates hoping to energize voters.** _ For your next posts, we want citations on dogs biting man. Or comment on the nuances of 2+2=4. The prediction markets were showing 30% chance of GOP White House, but today that’s pipped up to 31%. Is this plausible? I’m not sure but I’m not betting against it. Anyone who thinks 31% is way too high has a chance to “put money where mouth is” for much _much_ better odds than obtain in the stock market. Will many Rust-Belt whites who chose Stay-at-Home or Obama over the unpersonable Romney in 2012 come out and vote against the hated woman so they can Make America Great again? Not so far-fetched, particularly since we know both Daesh and Putin are rooting for it and may manipulate October events accordingly. ---
**Author:** ![BobLibDem](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/boblibdem/32/3149_2.png) [@BobLibDem](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BobLibDem)\ **Post date:** [July 25, 2016, 12:10pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/5-reasons-why-trump-will-win-michael-moore/760835/10 "2016-07-25T12:10:47Z")
> [@Bricker](#): > > I’m a Republican, and I am not voting for Trump. > > Who is?? Why?? I hope and pray that should the Democrats nominate someone as thoroughly repulsive as Trump, that I will also be able to vote against my party as some of the Republicans here will do this year, to their credit. Who is the Trump voter? What do they want? I think mostly closet racists who now feel empowered by Trump who says what they have been thinking for years. Also those who think Benghazi!™ is a disqualifying scandal by virtue of repetition. As much as I love Michael Moore and as proud as I am to see him wearing Spartan gear on television, he’s trying to rally the base and make us not become overconfident to the point where we stay home. ---
**Author:** ![penultima\_thule](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/penultima_thule/32/3833_2.png) [@penultima\_thule](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/penultima_thule)\ **Post date:** [July 25, 2016, 12:11pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/5-reasons-why-trump-will-win-michael-moore/760835/11 "2016-07-25T12:11:02Z")
> [@JohnClay](#): > > though I live in Australia so I wasn’t really worried about the consequences. You need to think about those consequences a bit more. It’s the same forces that have elected Derryn Hinch, Pauline Hansen, Jacquie Lambie and Clive Palmer.’ And they only held the balance of power. ---
**Author:** ![QuickSilver](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/quicksilver/32/7832_2.png) [@QuickSilver](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/QuickSilver)\ **Post date:** [July 25, 2016, 12:11pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/5-reasons-why-trump-will-win-michael-moore/760835/12 "2016-07-25T12:11:20Z")
I think all reasonable people are struggling for an answer to that question. Here’s one, by a lifetime Republican surrogate that’s eloquently worded, but too little, too late: > [@Chris Ladd](#): > > [Resignation letter:](https://goplifer.com/2016/07/22/resignation-letter/) > From his fairy-tale wall to his schoolyard bullying and his flirtation with violent racists, Donald Trump offers America a singular narrative – a tale of cowards. Fearful people, convinced of our inadequacy, trembling before a world alight with imaginary threats, crave a demagogue. Neither party has ever elevated to this level a more toxic figure, one that calls forth the darkest elements of our national character. > > With three decades invested in the Republican Party, there is a powerful temptation to shrug and soldier on. Despite the bold rhetoric, we all know Trump will lose. Why throw away a great personal investment over one bad nominee? Trump is not merely a poor candidate, but an indictment of our character. Preserving a party is not a morally defensible goal if that party has lost its legitimacy. > > Fast-forward to our present leadership and the nature of our dilemma is clear. I watched Paul Ryan speak at Donald Trump’s convention the way a young child watches his father march off to prison. Thousands of Republican figures that loathe Donald Trump, understand the danger he represents, and privately hope he loses, are publicly declaring their support for him. In Illinois our local and state GOP organizations, faced with a choice, have decided on complicity. > > Our leaders’ compromise preserves their personal capital at our collective cost. Their refusal to dissent robs all Republicans of moral cover. Evasion and cowardice has prevailed over conscience. We are now, and shall indefinitely remain, the Party of Donald Trump. Above is an excerpt [from a link posted in another thread](http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showthread.php?t=799369) by **E-DUB**. ---
**Author:** ![septimus](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/septimus/32/410_2.png) [@septimus](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/septimus)\ **Post date:** [July 25, 2016, 2:10pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/5-reasons-why-trump-will-win-michael-moore/760835/13 "2016-07-25T14:10:57Z")
Stupid white men with irrational anger are a mighty political force in this country, but they are not a majority. If ordinary well-read Republicans who retain an ounce of reason would follow **Bricker** ’s example and vote for Hillary, all would be saved. But I’m afraid even many intelligent Republicans have been mesmerized by all the nasty right-wing rhetoric over the years and will follow the lemmings off the cliff. Bush, Bush, Romney, and a few Senators have come out strongly against the Donald. I hope those who don’t speak out are branded in shame for the rest of their careers. ---
**Author:** ![RivkahChaya](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/rivkahchaya/32/8919_2.png) [@RivkahChaya](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RivkahChaya)\ **Post date:** [July 25, 2016, 2:27pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/5-reasons-why-trump-will-win-michael-moore/760835/14 "2016-07-25T14:27:26Z")
I now understand how helpless a lot of anti-Hitler Germans must have felt in 1933. They voted against him, for what it was worth. If he wins, I wonder how long it will be until we are breaking the glass of Muslim-owned businesses? The parallels are truly frightening. ---
**Author:** ![Nava](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/n/da6949/32.png) [@Nava](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Nava)\ **Post date:** [July 25, 2016, 2:33pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/5-reasons-why-trump-will-win-michael-moore/760835/15 "2016-07-25T14:33:12Z")
Muslims, Sikhs, latinos… or heck, just anybody who has a “strange” lastname. ---
**Author:** ![Folacin](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/folacin/32/3195_2.png) [@Folacin](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Folacin)\ **Post date:** [July 25, 2016, 2:47pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/5-reasons-why-trump-will-win-michael-moore/760835/16 "2016-07-25T14:47:21Z")
> [@septimus](#): > > Bush, Bush, Romney, and a few Senators have come out strongly against the Donald. I hope those who don’t speak out are branded in shame for the rest of their careers. The problem as I see it is that there will be no shame unless Trump wins and turns out to be the disaster that he appears to be. Otherwise, it will be just another Republican loss. ---
**Author:** ![John\_Mace](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/john_mace/32/185_2.png) [@John\_Mace](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/John_Mace)\ **Post date:** [July 25, 2016, 2:48pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/5-reasons-why-trump-will-win-michael-moore/760835/17 "2016-07-25T14:48:12Z")
> [@RivkahChaya](#): > > I now understand how helpless a lot of anti-Hitler Germans must have felt in 1933. They voted against him, for what it was worth. > > If he wins, I wonder how long it will be until we are breaking the glass of Muslim-owned businesses? > > The parallels are truly frightening. You must be planning to leave the country now, right? If not, then maybe the parallels aren’t quite what you think say are. I think people are a too complacent about Trump’s chances and I think that’s were MM is coming from. Hillary is till going to have to fight the good fight to win, but it’s hers to lose. The frightening thing is that she seems to be rather good at losing under those circumstances… ---
**Author:** ![I\_Love\_Me\_Vol.I](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/i_love_me_vol.i/32/521_2.png) [@I\_Love\_Me\_Vol.I](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/I_Love_Me_Vol.I)\ **Post date:** [July 25, 2016, 5:36pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/5-reasons-why-trump-will-win-michael-moore/760835/18 "2016-07-25T17:36:04Z")
Remember what some of the pro-Brexit voters said after the results were in? “Gee. I _never_ thought there was actually a chance that the vote to exit the EU would win! If I _had_ thought that, I never would have voted for it. I sure wish I could change my vote!” Yeah. That. ---
**Author:** ![John\_Mace](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/john_mace/32/185_2.png) [@John\_Mace](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/John_Mace)\ **Post date:** [July 25, 2016, 5:37pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/5-reasons-why-trump-will-win-michael-moore/760835/19 "2016-07-25T17:37:13Z")
> [@I\_Love\_Me\_Vol.I](#): > > Remember what some of the pro-Brexit voters said after the results were in? > > “Gee. I _never_ thought there was actually a chance that the vote to exit the EU would win! If I _had_ thought that, I never would have voted for it. I sure wish I could change my vote!” That’s called “Regretsit”. ---
**Author:** ![Flyer](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/flyer/32/7298_2.png) [@Flyer](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Flyer)\ **Post date:** [July 25, 2016, 9:06pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/5-reasons-why-trump-will-win-michael-moore/760835/20 "2016-07-25T21:06:37Z")
> [@Bricker](#): > > I’m a Republican, and I am not voting for Trump. > > Who is?? Why?? > [@BobLibDem](#): > > Who is the Trump voter? What do they want? I think mostly closet racists who now feel empowered by Trump who says what they have been thinking for years. By and large, the people who are planning to vote for Trump are doing so primarily, if not exclusively, because they are afraid that Clinton would be even worse. > [@](#): > > Nearly half the supporters of Republican candidate Donald Trump plan to vote for him out of fear that Democrat Hillary Clinton might become president. And it’s the same, vice versa, for those who plan to vote for Hillary. [https://www.rt.com/usa/342045-clinton-trump-negative-partisanship/](https://www.rt.com/usa/342045-clinton-trump-negative-partisanship/) As I posted in another thread recently, that is precisely why **I** am voting for Trump. There’s probably a dozen Democrats that I would vote for if they were running instead of Clinton. [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/5-reasons-why-trump-will-win-michael-moore/760835.md?page=2)